1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short - term trading for coking coal; range - trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][5][7] - Non - ferrous metals: Waiting and seeing for copper, aluminum, and nickel; range - trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9][11] - Energy and chemicals: Range - trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly in a range [1][17][19] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][27][28] - Agriculture and livestock: Short - term shorting opportunities on rebounds for live pigs; hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies for eggs; cautious about chasing high for corn; expecting soybean meal to trade in a short - term range; expecting short - term limited回调 for oils and fats [1][29][34] 2. Core Views - The report provides comprehensive investment suggestions for various futures markets, considering factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical situations. It emphasizes the need to pay attention to market trends, inventory changes, and policy impacts in different industries [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The market shows strong resilience. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.29%. The defense, machinery, and building materials sectors led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range. There is no obvious major negative news in the bond market, but there is no further impetus for interest rates to decline. After the repair since the beginning of the year, the space for bond yields to decline is limited [5] Black building materials - Double - coking coal is expected to trade in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has shown short - term fluctuations recently, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and coal mine inventory clearance [6][7] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range. On Tuesday, the rebar futures price traded in a range. The valuation is relatively low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term [7] - Glass is recommended to be bought on dips. Although there are negative factors such as inventory and demand, the futures price is relatively low, and there are positive news in the real estate sector. Technically, the short - side strength is weakening [7][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to have high - level volatility, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Macro factors have dominated the market this week, causing copper prices to fluctuate sharply. The supply is still tight, but the demand is weakening. There is a risk of high - level correction before the Spring Festival [9] - Aluminum is expected to have high - level volatility, and increased waiting and seeing is recommended. The bauxite price is under pressure, and the alumina inventory is increasing. The demand for downstream aluminum processing enterprises is weakening, and short - term high - level volatility is expected [10][11] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Although the Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction has boosted the market, the fundamental situation is weak. Different nickel products have different supply - demand situations, and the price increase drive is insufficient [12][13] - Tin is expected to trade in a range. The domestic tin production and imports have changed. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but the supply of tin concentrate is tight. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand changes [13] - Gold and silver are expected to trade in a range. Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman has led to an increase in hawkish expectations, but the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. The medium - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up [14][15] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range. The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances in the Yichun mining area [16][17] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to have low - level wide - range volatility. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the domestic demand is weak. However, the export has growth potential. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [17] - Caustic soda is expected to have low - level volatility, and temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and there is short - term delivery pressure. It may have support if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [19] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease due to factors such as export increases and device maintenance, but the current valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber is expected to trade in a range. The global supply is in the seasonal reduction stage, and the cost has support. However, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the market is expected to trade in a range in the short term [20][21] - Urea is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the inventory level is relatively low. The price is expected to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [22][23] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from the olefin industry is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [24][25] - Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival. The price increase space is limited [25][26] - Soda ash: Temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. After the supply contraction, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [26] Cotton and textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range. The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, with a decrease in production and an increase in consumption. The internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [27][28] - Apples are expected to trade in a range. The packaging and shipping in the production areas are slightly accelerating, but the overall market is stable and weak, and some fruit farmers are eager to sell [28] - Jujubes are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [28] Agriculture and livestock - Live pigs are expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short term, the supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is necessary to be cautious about the price increase [29][30] - Eggs are expected to rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - holiday contracts on rallies. Considering the high probability of molting and extension of laying periods around the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will be postponed [31][32] - Corn's upward space is limited. In the short term, the market is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, which restricts the price increase [33][34] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a low - level range. In the short term, the M2603 contract is expected to trade in a range, and the 05 contract is expected to face pressure at 2800 - 2850. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas weather and domestic policies [35] - Oils and fats are expected to have a limited回调. In the short term, the three major oils and fats are expected to回调 but with limited amplitude. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions on rebounds and wait to buy on dips [36][41]

Core Insights - February has historically been the strongest month for structural steel, with a price increase probability of 76.92% from 2012 to 2015, significantly higher than the annual average of 50% [2][4] - The average monthly return for February is 1.87%, ranking third among all months, indicating strong price growth potential [2][4] - The average maximum increase in February is 102.88%, while the average maximum decrease is 99.38%, showcasing a seasonal tendency for prices to rise more easily than to fall [2][4] Market Dynamics - The price increase in February is driven by multiple factors, including a rebound in demand due to post-Spring Festival construction and manufacturing resumption, leading to improved marginal demand [4] - Supply-side dynamics show that steel mills often reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, leading to lower social inventory levels, which can trigger a replenishment trend post-holiday [4] - Cost factors, such as the prices of iron ore and coke, tend to rise after winter storage ends, providing additional support for steel prices [4] Future Outlook - The "February Law" derived from 13 years of data reflects the resonance between industrial cycles and market sentiment, although it is based on probabilities [5] - Current market conditions suggest that while there is some pre-holiday inventory buildup, it may weaken post-holiday replenishment efforts, with seasonal trends likely extending into March [5] - Overall, the first quarter is expected to see a significant probability of structural steel prices experiencing fluctuations upward [5]

| | | | | | | | | 白金 主要 主要 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/04 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 F03117750 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6000 | | 400 | | | (元/吨) ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals showed significant gains, with rebar futures trading at 3471.00 yuan, up 0.26% [1] - As of late January 2026, social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities reached 7.17 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons or 1.1% month-on-month, but a decrease of 40,000 tons or 0.6% year-to-date, and down 170,000 tons or 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The Central Document No. 1 emphasizes expanding rural consumption through various measures, including support for new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and green building materials [2] Group 2 - Economic growth targets for local governments are set around 5%, with the steel market absorbing external market fluctuations and showing a slowdown in trading activity due to the upcoming Spring Festival [3] - Inventory levels for major steel products have increased, but there is a divergence among product types, with hot-rolled coils continuing a trend of inventory reduction [3] - Iron ore and coking coal prices remain relatively strong, and future market conditions will depend on macroeconomic sentiment [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the concentrated release of risks, both commodity and equity assets have recovered, but the market sentiment is still in the process of recovery. [2] - The central bank's bond - buying and reverse - repurchase operations have supported the short - end of the bond market, while the long - end is affected by the rebound of the equity market. [2] - Precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded, but the confidence of gold bulls needs to be restored, and silver prices will fluctuate widely. [2] - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend, and the prices of iron ore and coking coal are under pressure. [2] - The prices of most chemical products are in a volatile state, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different products. [2] - Agricultural product prices are also in a state of volatility, with different trends for different varieties. [2] 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - After the concentrated release of risks, the equity market has rebounded, but the positions have not increased. It is in a stage of restorative rebound. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call option positions. [2] Bonds - The rebound of the equity market has slightly suppressed the sentiment of long - term bonds. The central bank's operations have supported the short - end. It is expected that the T2603 contract will fluctuate between 108 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should be range - bound operations, and curve strategies should focus on flattening. It is recommended to arrange position transfers before the Spring Festival. [2] Precious Metals - Gold has stopped falling and is in the stage of bottom establishment, and can be allocated at low prices; silver prices will fluctuate widely between 75 - 95 dollars. Platinum and palladium will follow the rebound of gold and enter a consolidation stage, and short - term waiting for the direction to clear is recommended. [2] Shipping - The EC of container shipping has risen on the disk, and cautious waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] Steel and Related Products - Steel prices maintain a volatile trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are under pressure after the completion of steel mill replenishment. The prices of coking coal and coke are in a volatile decline. [2] Chemical Products - Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have support at low levels, while short - fiber and bottle - chip are affected by supply - demand expectations. Some products like LLDPE and PP are in a state of supply - demand imbalance and price volatility. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a state of loose supply, while cotton prices are relatively stable and long positions can be held. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downwards and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - With the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline, hitting a new low recently, and winter storage was sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum adjusted weakly, and the sentiment eased. The weakening of the US dollar and concerns about the US government shutdown, as well as the short - term escalation of the US - Iran confrontation, affected the market [2] - The domestic central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on February 4 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] - In the domestic bauxite market, Shanxi's domestic bauxite is actively resuming production, with sufficient supply and downward - pressured prices. For imported ore, the intended transaction price has decreased, and the market is quiet, with alumina plants being cautious in procurement [3] - In January, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. In February, production is expected to decrease month - on - month due to fewer natural days, and some new projects are expected to be put into production stably [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand for raw materials weakens, and the aluminum water ratio is expected to drop significantly. The overall aluminum processing operating rate shows a "seasonal decline acceleration and high - price suppression effect deepening" feature, and it is expected to decline further before the Spring Festival [3] - As of January 29, the social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 782,000 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared to the same period in 2025. With the price decline, the downstream situation is expected to remain weak [3] - The short - term market sentiment has eased, but the linkage between precious metals and the non - ferrous sector is strong, and the market trading sentiment is cautious. Attention should be paid to the risks of sentiment cooling and market correction [4]

Group 1 - Guizhou Steel Rope Co., Ltd. experienced a 5% increase in stock price, reaching 14.70 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 132 million yuan and a turnover rate of 3.71%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 3.603 billion yuan [1] - The company, established on October 19, 2000, and listed on May 14, 2004, specializes in the research, production, processing, sales, and import-export of steel wire, various types of steel rope products, prestressed steel strands, and related equipment and materials [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes steel ropes (48.27%), steel strands (26.87%), steel wires (22.88%), other (1.39%), entrusted processing materials (0.31%), and rigging (0.29%) [1] Group 2 - Guotai Fund's Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF (515210) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Guizhou Steel Rope, holding 2.0017 million shares, which is 0.82% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 1.4012 million yuan [2] - The Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF was established on January 22, 2020, with a latest scale of 3.98 billion yuan, yielding 3.54% this year, ranking 2976 out of 5562 in its category, and 34.57% over the past year, ranking 2058 out of 4285 [2] - Since its inception, the fund has achieved a return of 76.82% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing's industrial investment has increased by 12.1% year-on-year, supported by new policies aimed at enhancing industrial capacity and technological advancement [1] Group 1: Industrial Investment and Policy Support - Nanjing's industrial investment accounted for a larger share of fixed asset investment, increasing by 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The newly implemented policy includes 20 measures across six dimensions to support industrial enterprises in expanding capacity and ensuring project implementation [1][2] - The policy aims to facilitate technological upgrades and equipment renewal, providing financial incentives for enterprises investing over 20 million yuan in equipment [2][4] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Capacity Expansion - Nanjing South Rui Electric Co., Ltd. has invested over 2 billion yuan in expanding its intelligent electrical equipment production line, significantly increasing production capacity and overcoming key technological bottlenecks [1][3] - The expansion project includes the purchase of advanced systems and equipment, enhancing the company's ability to produce critical power control protection systems [3] - The new policy encourages enterprises to undertake key technological challenges and supports the transformation of scientific achievements into practical applications [3] Group 3: Green Transformation and Sustainable Development - The new policy emphasizes green development, promoting sustainable industrial growth and encouraging enterprises to adopt environmentally friendly practices [6][7] - Nanjing Steel's investment in a resource recycling project demonstrates the effectiveness of green transformation, contributing to the steel industry's low-carbon transition [7] - The policy aims to shift industrial expansion from mere scale growth to transformative development methods, aligning with sustainability goals [6] Group 4: Industry Cluster Development and Competitive Advantage - The policy encourages leading enterprises to act as "aggregators" for industrial development, fostering collaboration and enhancing the resilience of the entire industry chain [8][9] - Hua Tian Technology's expansion project is expected to generate over 800 million yuan in output and create more than 500 jobs, showcasing the positive impact of leading enterprises on the local economy [9] - The policy includes measures to support collaboration between leading enterprises and small to medium-sized enterprises, enhancing overall industry competitiveness [9][10]

Group 1: Economic Development and Investment - The government aims to strengthen domestic demand as a strategic foundation, focusing on enhancing consumption and investment in both goods and services [1] - A target of 2,550 billion yuan is set for major project investments throughout the year [1] - The government plans to promote service consumption by developing various sectors such as night economy, live-streaming economy, and elder economy [1] Group 2: Core Functionality and Industrial Development - The focus is on building a modern industrial system, enhancing the foundation of the real economy, and upgrading industries like petrochemicals and steel through smart and green technology [2] - Major projects in integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence are to be accelerated [2] Group 3: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The government emphasizes the efficient transformation and application of major technological achievements, encouraging enterprises to increase R&D investment [4] - Plans include the establishment of over 50 advanced smart factories and the promotion of intelligent and green development across industries [4] Group 4: Urban Development and Infrastructure - The city will enhance urban spatial development by advancing new city construction and improving the capabilities of specialized industrial parks [7] - A focus on smart city construction aims to improve digital public service capabilities and infrastructure [7] Group 5: Rural Revitalization - The government is committed to improving modern agricultural quality and efficiency, with plans to build 80,000 acres of high-standard farmland [8] - Initiatives to promote the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in rural areas are underway [8] Group 6: Cultural and Tourism Development - The establishment of the Shanghai Grand Opera House and the promotion of various tourism sectors, including red tourism and rural tourism, are key initiatives [9] - A new round of reforms in state-owned cultural institutions is planned to enhance public cultural services [9] Group 7: Green and Low-Carbon Transition - The government is focused on pollution prevention and control, with plans to implement a new round of clean air action [10] - Initiatives to enhance green ecological space quality include the addition of 100 parks and improving park management [10] Group 8: Social Welfare and Employment - The government aims to create a job-friendly environment, targeting the addition of over 600,000 urban jobs [11] - Support for key groups such as recent graduates and unemployed individuals will be strengthened through various employment assistance policies [11]

1、美国预计将启动一项 120 亿美元矿产储备计划，范围预计涵盖稀土、铜和锂等关键矿产； 2、SpaceX 收购 xAI，预计估值将达 1.25 万亿美元；浙大发布全球首个峰值速度达到 10m/s 的全尺寸 人形机器人； 3、2026 年中央一号文件：促进人工智能与农业发展相结合；上海：大力培育发展脑机接口、第四代半 导体等未来产业； 文字早评 2026/02/04 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 4、黄金/白银现货最高反弹 6.24%/11%；日经 225 指数涨近 4%，创历史新高；韩国综合指数涨近 7%。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.63%/1.37%/3.96%/4.07%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-3.32%/0.51%/6.16%/5.23%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.44%/2.85%/11.41%/8.91%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.77%/0.47%/1.63%/2.59%。 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 ...