证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 基础化工 量增价跌，Q3 盈利分化 ——基础化工行业 2025Q3 业绩前瞻 投资要点 ❑ 行业整体：量增价跌，Q3 整体盈利下行 根据国家统计局数据，2025 年前 8 月化学原料与制品行业实现营收 5.95 万亿元， 累计同比增长 0.9%，年初至今增速持续回落；实现利润总额 2461 亿元，累计同 比下滑 5.5%；利润率 4.14%，较 24 年同期下降 0.35 个百分点，降至历史低位； 存货 1.02 万亿，同比增长 2.2%，其中产成品存货 0.47 万亿，同比增长 5.1%。地 产下行内需弱复苏，关税冲击外需，化工品量增价跌。截至 25 年 9 月 30 日，中 国化工产品价格指数（CCPI）3958 点，较年初跌 8.1%，同比跌 10%。2025 年 8 月化学原料及制品、化纤、橡胶及塑料 PPI 当月同比分别-5.7%、-9.3%、-2.6%。 行业景气持续下行，投资增速放缓。2025 年 8 月化学原料及制品、化纤固定资产 投资增速分别为-5.2%和 9.3%。 ❑ 化工产品：整体承压，结构分化 产能过剩整体承压下不同子行业分化明显。价格表现好的子行业主 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Domestically, policies in the consumption field will continue to be introduced due to income distribution imbalance. The economy needs government support, with the production side remaining strong. Overseas, US inflation is resilient, and the market is concerned about the US job market. Focus on Fed Chair Powell's speech and the dot - plot [2] - For the US dollar index, there is a risk of downward break - out. The RMB exchange rate may form a "three - price convergence" pattern. It is advisable to short the US dollar index and use appropriate hedging strategies for enterprises [3][4] - The stock index is expected to be mainly volatile. Wait for the Fed's interest - rate cut to land and hold positions for observation [5] - The sentiment of treasury bonds has recovered. Consider holding long positions at low prices [6] - The container shipping market has insufficient cargo volume. Near - month contracts may fall, and short - selling opportunities can be focused on [8] - Precious metals may be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Be cautious of profit - taking after the interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled [11] - Copper is expected to be in high - level consolidation [12] - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry chain vary. Aluminum may be bullish, alumina may be bearish, and cast aluminum alloy may be bullish [13][15][16] - Zinc is expected to be mainly volatile [16] - Nickel and stainless steel are affected by the macro level, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [17] - Tin is in high - level oscillation [18] - Lithium carbonate is supported by the peak - season demand [19] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a pattern of rising and then falling. Be cautious about polysilicon investment [20][21] - Lead is in high - level oscillation [21] - The trading logic of steel products is switching. Pay attention to policy implementation and demand [22] - Iron ore has limited upside and downside space [24][25] - Coal and coke are not recommended as short - selling targets in the black series. Pay attention to downstream restocking and policies [27] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost. Focus on the impact of coking coal prices [28] - Crude oil is mainly driven by supply. It is recommended to short at high prices [32] - LPG is mainly volatile. Pay attention to PDH enterprise start - up [34] - PX - TA is in oscillation. PTA processing fees may be repaired [37] - MEG - bottle chips have a heavy inventory - building expectation. Do not short blindly [38] - PP is supported by the cost side. It is recommended to go long at low prices [41] - PE has a slow demand recovery and a weak pattern [44] - Pure benzene and styrene are in a strong - side oscillation. Observe the downstream restocking intention [46][47] - Fuel oil is waiting for an opportunity to short the cracking profit [47] - Low - sulfur fuel oil focuses on shorting the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month [48] - Asphalt follows the cost and waits for a long - position opportunity [48] - Rubber and 20 - number rubber continue to be in wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to weather and demand [51] - Urea is in a pattern of support below and suppression above, with the 01 contract expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [53] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the soda ash market is affected by supply and demand expectations, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [53] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Macro - China's Ministry of Commerce explores setting spring and autumn holidays for primary and secondary schools and promotes the opening of Internet and cultural fields. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed has been slow to respond, and the market expects a 75 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the end of the year. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is highly anticipated [1][4] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose. The US inflation is resilient, and the market is concerned about the US job market. The RMB exchange rate may form a "three - price convergence" pattern [2][3][4] Stock Index - The stock index was volatile, with small - cap stocks relatively strong. Wait for the Fed's interest - rate cut to land and hold positions for observation [4][5] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds opened low and went high. The policy on expanding service consumption was released, and its impact on the market is limited. Consider holding long positions at low prices [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) futures had a mixed performance. The new - week Maersk European line spot - cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume was insufficient. Focus on short - selling opportunities for near - month contracts [6][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices were strong. Gold reached a new high. Focus on the Fed's September FOMC meeting, including interest - rate cuts, dot - plots, and Powell's speech. The medium - to - long - term may be bullish, and be cautious of profit - taking [9][11] Copper - The copper price冲高回落. It is expected to be in high - level consolidation due to the conflict between macro and micro factors [11][12] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices rose due to interest - rate cut expectations and improved fundamentals, but the downstream receiving sentiment was poor. Alumina supply is in surplus, and prices may be weak. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by scrap aluminum shortages and may be bullish [13][15][16] Zinc - Zinc prices were mainly volatile. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. Observe macro and consumption, and the short - term is in bottom - side strong - side oscillation [16] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel were affected by the macro level and mine - end disturbances. The fundamentals were relatively stable. Focus on subsequent macro - level positive news [16][17][18] Tin - Tin prices were in high - level oscillation. They were supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the short - term supply is tight [18] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose. Supported by the peak - season demand, the reasonable price range is 72000 - 76000 yuan/ton [18][19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures had a pattern of rising and then falling. Industrial silicon has short - term positive sentiment support and long - term structural pressure. Polysilicon is affected by news and policies, and investment should be cautious [19][20][21] Lead - Lead prices were in high - level oscillation. The supply is weak relative to demand, and the short - term is in high - level oscillation [21] Black Metals Steel Products - The trading logic of steel products is switching. There is a high - supply and over - seasonal inventory - building pressure, but there is also support from the hot - rolled coil inventory decline and pre - holiday restocking expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and demand [22][23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were oscillating. The fundamentals have slightly declined, and the upside and downside space are limited [24][25] Coal and Coke - Coal and coke prices were in high - level oscillation. The supply is frequently disturbed, and they are not recommended as short - selling targets in the black series. Pay attention to downstream restocking and policies [26][27] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices冲高回落. They are supported by cost, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Focus on the impact of coking coal prices [28] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose. Geopolitical disturbances dominate the price trend. Supply pressure is the core driving force, and it is recommended to short at high prices [30][31][32] LPG - LPG prices were mainly volatile. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. Pay attention to PDH enterprise start - up [33][34] PX - TA - PX - TA prices were in oscillation. PX supply may increase in September, and PTA supply and demand are in a complex situation. PTA processing fees may be repaired [35][36][37] MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG - bottle chips have a heavy inventory - building expectation. Do not short blindly as the supply lacks elasticity and the downward space is limited [37][38] PP - PP prices were slightly up. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the recovery stage but the peak season is not obvious. The cost side provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [38][40][41] PE - PE prices were slightly up. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is in the process of recovery but the speed is slow. It is in a weak pattern and is expected to be in oscillation [42][43][44] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices were in a strong - side oscillation. Pure benzene has an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. Styrene supply may increase after September, and the demand has limited growth. Observe the downstream restocking intention [46][47] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices were in a certain situation. The supply is expected to rise slowly, and the demand is stable. Wait for an opportunity to short the cracking profit [47] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil prices were in a certain situation. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. Focus on shorting the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month [48] Asphalt - Asphalt prices were in a certain situation. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by rain and funds. The inventory is improving. Try long - position after the cost stabilizes [48] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices were in wide - range oscillation. Affected by weather, supply, and demand, the short - term cost is supported, and the long - term needs to pay attention to policies and trade [50][51] Urea - Urea prices were in a certain situation. The market has sufficient supply and increasing inventory. There is support from exports, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [51][52][53] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices were up. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand is stable, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [53]

Performance Disclosure - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.53 billion yuan, up 1169.77% year-on-year [1] - Shanghai Petrochemical reported a revenue of 39.52 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 462 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss [2] - Fuhuan Microelectronics reported a revenue of 688 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.04%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 23.02 million yuan, down 78.1% year-on-year [3] Shareholding Changes - Botao Biological announced that its actual controller, Yu Xiuping, plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's total shares, equating to approximately 4.48 million shares [4] - Sanbo Brain Science announced that shareholder TBP 3Doctors (HK) Limited plans to reduce holdings by no more than approximately 609,000 shares, representing 3% of the total share capital after excluding shares in the repurchase account [5] - Xiangshan Co. announced that two shareholders, Zhao Yukun and Chen Bo, reduced their holdings by a total of 5.45% of the company's shares, equating to 7.1996 million shares, with the reduction plan completed [6] Risk Matters - ST Zhongdi announced that 23.77% of the shares held by its controlling shareholder, totaling 71.1448 million shares, will be publicly auctioned from September 24 to 25, 2025, due to debt disputes, which may lead to a change in company control [7] - Kailong Co. announced that its subsidiaries were fined a total of 1.762 million yuan for reaching a fixed price monopoly agreement, which is expected to reduce the company's net profit by approximately 1.3962 million yuan [8] - Tiansheng New Materials reported that Baoding Weishai New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. filed an appeal involving an amount of 802 million yuan, seeking to overturn a previous court ruling [9]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, aiming to address the issue of "involution" in market competition [2][8] - Historical cases show that supply-side clearance driven by policy typically begins with market expectations, while the main upward trend requires improvements in industry structure to support cash flow and balance sheet recovery [8][10] - The current round of overcapacity is primarily concentrated in mid- and downstream industries, unlike the previous cycle which was focused on upstream resource sectors [9][10] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on two main strategies: industries that have experienced prolonged supply-side clearance and are likely to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, and industries that may benefit from policy-driven accelerated clearance [10][11] - For natural clearance, the report recommends monitoring demand-side indicators for upstream industries and supply-side indicators for mid- and downstream sectors, highlighting sectors such as agricultural chemicals, general machinery, pharmaceuticals, and components [10] - For policy-driven clearance, attention should be given to industries mentioned in recent policies aimed at addressing "involution," including photovoltaic, lithium batteries, automobiles, and cement [10][17]