Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The change in the interest rate trend expectations of major central banks has significantly increased the holding cost of non - interest - generating precious metals, suppressing the price trends of gold and silver. After a sharp short - term decline, the short - selling force has been somewhat released, and the prices may fluctuate widely at the current level. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 4.99% to $4651.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 6.16% to $72.81 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract fell 4.99% to 1026.74 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract fell 6.07% to 17660 yuan per kilogram. [1] Important Information - On March 19, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.858 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1062.135 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 77.46 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 15186.94 tons. [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 92.8%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate hike is 9.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate hike is 0.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 90.6%. [1] - On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations. The Bank of England unanimously decided to keep the interest rate unchanged and opened the channel for "possible interest rate hikes". The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting and mentioned in the statement that it is concerned about the impact of rising oil prices. [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 205,000, lower than the estimated 215,000 and the previous value of 213,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the week of March 7 increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million. [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said on March 19 that the US did not attack Iran's energy infrastructure, has allowed Iranian oil to continue to be transported through the Gulf region, and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the next few days. In addition, the US may release strategic oil reserves again to suppress oil prices. [1] - France, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan announced in a joint statement that they are prepared to take appropriate measures together to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. [1] - Iran said its offensive and defensive capabilities are unprecedented and warned that it will retaliate if its energy facilities are attacked again. According to Iranian lawmakers, the Iranian parliament is promoting a bill that requires relevant countries to pay tolls and taxes to Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is used as a safe passage for ship traffic, energy, and food transportation. [1] Market Logic - The US Producer Price Index in February rose 3.4% year - on - year, higher than the market forecast of 3.0%. Traders further reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, reducing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and leading to bets on interest rate hikes. The Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in March, in line with market expectations. The European, British, and Japanese central banks all announced unchanged interest rates, and the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecast. [2] - The US dollar index fell 1.10% to 99.19 on Thursday, and the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond first rose and then fell, closing at 4.25%. After Iran counterattacked the oil and gas facilities of relevant Middle - Eastern countries, the US Treasury Secretary said that sanctions on Iranian oil on sea tankers might be lifted, and Israel would "suspend" air strikes on Iranian energy facilities. International crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday and then declined. [2] Trading Strategy - The market's short - term volatility has increased, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks. [2]

Market Overview - COMEX gold prices fell significantly, reaching a low of nearly $4500 per ounce before closing at $4651.90, down 4.99%[2] - COMEX silver also saw a sharp decline, hitting a low close to $65 per ounce and ending at $72.81, down 6.16%[2] - The Shanghai gold and silver futures also dropped, with gold at 1026.74 yuan per gram (down 4.99%) and silver at 17660 yuan per kilogram (down 6.07%) at the close[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for February rose by 3.4%, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, leading to reduced bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026[3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 205,000, lower than the expected 215,000, further diminishing expectations for a rate cut and increasing speculation for a rate hike[3] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate, aligning with market expectations, while raising inflation forecasts due to uncertainties from the Middle East[3] - The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan also kept their rates unchanged, with the ECB raising its inflation outlook[3] Market Sentiment - The changes in interest rate expectations among major central banks have increased the holding costs of non-yielding precious metals, putting downward pressure on gold and silver prices[3] - Following a rapid decline, gold and silver prices found some support near previous lows, indicating potential for wide fluctuations in the short term[3] - Investors are advised to manage positions carefully and mitigate risks amid increased market volatility[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market uncertainty is high, and investors are advised to control positions and prevent risks [2] - The Middle East conflict continues, with significant differences between the US and Iran and no intention to cease fire. The situation in Iran should be continuously monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $5011.30 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.51% to $79.46 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract fell 0.16% to 1114.36 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract fell 1.85% to 20088 yuan per kilogram [1] - ICE Brent crude oil closed up 3.28% at $103.50 per barrel on Tuesday. The US dollar index rose first and then fell, closing down 0.25% at 99.56. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell about 2 basis points to 4.20% [1] Important Information - On March 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.144 tons to 1069.564 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 33.8 tons to 15389.75 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 98.9%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 1.1%. By April, the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points is 3.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95.9%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 1.1% [1] - Trump said he is not ready to end the conflict but will leave in the near future. He invited allies to participate in escort but was met with a cold response, and threatened to withdraw from NATO. Iran's Supreme Leader rejected the peace - making proposal, and key figures in Iran died. Iran attacked UAE's upstream oil and gas facilities for the first time [1] Market Logic - COMEX gold and COMEX silver fluctuated on Tuesday, continuing to move horizontally around $5000 per ounce and $80 per ounce respectively. The Middle East conflict continues to affect the market [1] Trading Strategy - Market short - term uncertainty is large, and investors should control positions to prevent risks [2]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - COMEX gold and silver futures, along with Shanghai gold and silver futures, all declined on March 16, 2026. The market is affected by factors such as the change in ETF positions, Fed interest - rate expectations, central bank gold - buying trends, and the situation in the Middle East. The short - term market is uncertain, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures dropped 2.00% to $5023.10/ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 5.25% to $80.64/ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract decreased 1.31% to 1126.64 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract declined 4.59% to 20682 yuan/kg [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.76% to 100.50 on Friday, up 1.56% for the week. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.27%, up 14 basis points for the week. Brent May crude oil futures rose 3.41% to $103.89/barrel, up 12.08% for the week [2] Important Information - On March 13, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.287 tons to 1071.565 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 78.88 tons to 15460.18 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 0.8%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.2%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by April is 6.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 93%, with a 0% probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cut by June is 24.7% [1] - In January 2026, global central banks' net gold purchases were 5 tons, showing a slowdown compared to the monthly average of 27 tons in 2025. Geopolitical tensions may drive central banks to continue increasing gold holdings [1] - The U.S. core PCE in January increased 0.4% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations [1] - There are signs that the Middle East conflict may continue. The U.S. and Iran have no intention to stop the war. The Israeli military said the operation against Iran would last at least three more weeks [1] Market Logic - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations led to the continued decline of COMEX gold and silver on Friday. The short - term will test the support levels of $5000/ounce and $80/ounce [2] Trading Strategy - Due to the high short - term market uncertainty, investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]

Group 1: Market Analysis - Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated that Iran won't give up revenge, will use strategies like blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and may open new fronts. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said some ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The US initial jobless claims last week dropped by 1,000 to 213,000, slightly below market expectations. The US trade deficit in January narrowed by 25% to $54.5 billion, and exports increased by 5.5% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On March 12, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,148.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1,148.10 yuan/gram, a -0.34% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,137.50 yuan/gram, a -0.92% drop from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 21,771.00 yuan/kg, closed at 22,062.00 yuan/kg, a -0.87% change. The trading volume was 414,009 lots, and the open interest was 206,073 lots. The night session closed at 21,706 yuan/kg, a -1.61% drop [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 12, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.257%, a -0.59 BP change from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.525%, a +0.66 BP change [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on SHFE - On March 12, 2026, on the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 3,407 lots, and short positions decreased by 62 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 250,176 lots, a -13.25% change. On the Ag2606 contract, long positions decreased by 1,679 lots, and short positions increased by 1,080 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 711,780 lots, a 0.39% change [4] Group 5: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,077.28 tons, an increase of 3.71 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,539 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 12, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 7.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 734.59 yuan/kg. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 52.04, a 0.54% change from the previous trading day. The foreign market's gold-silver ratio was 60.11, a 2.86% change [6] Group 7: Fundamental Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d gold was 33,864 kg, a -16.07% change. The silver trading volume was 415,788 kg, a 112.69% change. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Neutral. Market risk sentiment is rising, and the market may trade the liquidity crisis again. The price of gold is expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2604 contract's range between 1,100 yuan/gram - 1,180 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Neutral. Silver shows a weakening price like gold. Due to the rising risk sentiment, the market may trade the liquidity crisis again. The price of silver is expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2606 contract's range between 20,800 yuan/kg - 22,000 yuan/kg [9] - Options: Postpone [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the context of the long - term dollar credit narrative and the continuation of central bank gold - buying trends, the medium - to - long - term bullish logic remains intact. It is recommended to make long - term layouts on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1,148.10 yuan/gram, down 3.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 22,062 yuan/kilogram, down 194 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract position of Shanghai Gold was 105,803 lots, down 1,925 lots; the main contract position of Shanghai Silver was 3,354 lots, up 202 lots [2]. - **Volumes**: The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold was 163,830 lots, down 15,737 lots; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver was 414,009 lots, up 19,026 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 105,420 kilograms, up 510 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 309,974 kilograms, up 58,115 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1,146.45 yuan, down 3.97 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 21,594 yuan, down 706 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.65 yuan/gram, down 0.09 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 468 yuan/gram, down 512 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,077.28 tons, up 3.71 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,539.06 tons, down 115.51 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 160,145 contracts, up 968 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 23,338 contracts, up 1,078 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total demand for silver in the year was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.20, up 0.27; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.85, up 0.03 [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The VIX volatility index was 24.23, down 0.70; the CBOE gold volatility index was 30.68, down 1.43. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.31, up 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 60.10, up 1.25 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump stated that the US military action against Iran was "about to end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received internal instructions to stop the military action [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the energy supply disruption risk caused by the Iran war [2]. - The US February CPI report showed that the overall inflation performance was basically in line with market expectations, but the February inflation data did not fully reflect the upward pressure on international oil prices [2]. - The US government budget deficit in February 2026 was $308 billion. The budget deficit from the beginning of the fiscal year to February exceeded $1 trillion, but was about 12% lower than the same period in 2025 [2]. 3.6 Option Analysis - For the outer - market gold options, the $5,000 level is the most important lower support, and there is also some defensive strength around $5,100. The main resistance area is between $5,200 and $5,225, with concentrated long - call positions. The Put/Call ratio is generally below 1, indicating a bullish market sentiment [2]. - For the outer - market silver options, the $85 level is the most important long - short balance center, and there is also some defensive strength around $84. There is some resistance around $89, and the expansion of long - call positions at higher strike prices is not obvious, indicating that new bullish drivers are needed for further upward movement. The Put/Call ratio has recently fallen below 1, and the market sentiment is cautiously bullish [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On March 13 at 20:30, the US January core PCE price index will be released. - On March 13 at 22:00, the US January durable goods orders will be released [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 1.11% to $5183.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 4.11% to $85.91 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.37% to 1151.48 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract fell 2.8% to 21997 yuan per kilogram [1] - On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index first fell and then rose, finally closing up 0.32% at 99.26; the yield of the benchmark 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.23%. ICE Brent crude oil closed up 6.64% to $93.63 per barrel [2] Important Information - On March 11, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 3.716 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1077.281 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 115.51 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 15539.06 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 11.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.1%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 33.8% [1] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in February increased by 2.4% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the same as the previous value. The U.S. core CPI in February increased by 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the same as the previous value; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.30% [1] - On March 11, the U.S. government launched a new round of 301 trade investigations on the industrial over - capacity of 16 major trading partners to re - impose tariff pressure [1] - U.S. Energy Secretary Wright issued a statement on the release of strategic petroleum reserves. The 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed to Trump's request to coordinate the release of 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil from their reserves to reduce energy prices. As part of this action, Trump authorized the Energy Department to release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve starting next week, and it is expected to take about 120 days to complete the delivery [1] - Trump said that Iran has "nothing left to fight", and the war will end soon. The Iranian president put forward three necessary conditions for ending the war: recognizing Iran's legitimate rights, paying war compensation, and providing firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression. Three ships were reported to have been attacked in the Gulf waters on Wednesday. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said its forces fired on ships that did not obey orders in the Gulf region [1] Market Logic - The conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran continues, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment provides some support for gold prices. Affected by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the market's expectation of rising interest rates, COMEX gold had a slight correction on Wednesday, and COMEX silver had a larger decline [2] Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market panic was relieved as the US president said the war with Iran was basically over on Monday, but the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the market risk - aversion sentiment supported the gold price to some extent. The short - term market has high uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 1.86% to $5198.70 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 4.79% to $88.57 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.98% to 1154.88 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 1.67% to 22536 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 10, the holding of the world's largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust was 1073.57 tons, an increase of 2.86 tons from the previous trading day. The holding of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 56.34 tons from the previous day, and the current holding was 15654.57 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 0.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 99.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April was 13.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 86.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively was 0.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June was 37.5% [1] - Trump said there might be conditional negotiations with Iran. But within Iran, the Iranian foreign minister said the new supreme leader would not negotiate with the US, while the Iranian vice - president said they had not given up on resolving the issue through negotiations [1] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait will cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day in total [1] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed up 0.23% at 98.94; the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond rose and closed at 4.16%. ICE Brent crude oil first plunged and then rebounded, closing at $91.4 per barrel. The US energy giant ExxonMobil's chief economist warned that the Strait of Hormuz might remain closed for a longer time than the market expected [1] Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term trend of precious metals may be volatile, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market's panic has dissipated, risk assets have counterattacked, and the US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, which has a certain supporting effect on the price of gold. The statement by the US President that the war with Iran is basically over has suppressed the rise of COMEX gold and led to a small decline, while COMEX silver first declined and then rose with risk assets [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.19% to $5148.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.60% to $87.34 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 1141.12 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 2.31% to 21738 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - On March 9, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1070.71 tons, a decrease of 2.61 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, were 15710.91 tons, a decrease of 50.71 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively in April is 11.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by June is 33.3% [1]. - US President Trump said in a phone interview that the war is basically over, which led to the dissipation of market panic, a more than 13% drop in the VIX panic index, and a large - scale counterattack of risk assets [1]. - G7 officials said that at the G7 finance ministers' meeting, a broad consensus was reached not to release oil reserves for the time being, and reserve releases and other measures would be taken to support global energy supply if necessary [1]. Market Logic - The US President's statement that the war is basically over and the consideration of controlling the Strait of Hormuz led to the dissipation of market panic and a counterattack of risk assets. The US dollar index fell 0.24% to 98.71, and the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond fell to 4.100%. The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, and market risk - aversion sentiment supports the price of gold. The statement that the war with Iran is basically over suppressed the rise of COMEX gold and led to a small decline. COMEX silver first declined significantly and then rose with risk assets [1]. Trading Strategy The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The market has short - term uncertainties, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract dropped 1.35% to 1135.48 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract declined 1.63% to 21305 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 5.144 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1075.894 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 12.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 30.7% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 28 was 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, falling short of the market expectation of 215,000 [1] - CME announced that it will lower the initial margin of its COMEX 100 gold futures from 9% to 7% and the initial margin of COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%, effective after the close on March 6, 2026 [1] - According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.3 billion in February, achieving nine consecutive months of capital inflows and the strongest annual start ever [1] - In the Middle - East conflict, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Lavanchi said that Iran has not selected a new supreme leader and is ready to abandon its nuclear program if the US offers a satisfactory alternative. The US military is reported to be preparing for a 100 - day operation against Iran until September [1] Market Logic - On Thursday, the US dollar index regained its upward momentum, closing up 0.24% at 99.04. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to rise, closing at 4.14%, with a cumulative increase of about 19 basis points in the past four trading days. The stronger US dollar and rising US bond yields suppressed precious metals. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continued, and the blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz drove up oil prices, leading to an increase in the global inflation expectation and a further decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The US stock market fell on Thursday, and COMEX gold and silver had a slight correction [1][2] Trading Strategy - Due to the high short - term uncertainty in the market, investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]