Core Insights - The company is expected to report a 28% year-on-year increase in Non-GAAP net profit to 9.6 billion yuan for Q3 2025, with revenue projected to grow by 14% to 23.9 billion yuan, aligning with Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][2] Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance Expectations - The flagship product "Fa Xin Ya" and new games are showing strong performance, with online game service revenue expected to increase by 15% in Q3 2025 [1] - The desktop version of "Dream of the Red Chamber" has seen record high online users, surpassing 3.15 million on September 7 [1] - The mobile version of "Dream of the Red Chamber" launched a new service at the end of August, contributing to user engagement [1] Group 2: New Product Cycle and Future Focus - The company is set to focus on key products in 2026, including the multi-platform RPG "Forgotten Sea," which began its first round of testing at the end of June [2] - The open-world game "Infinite" was showcased at the Tokyo Game Show, highlighting innovations in traditional gaming frameworks and user interaction [2] - The life simulation party game "Starry Sky" received its license in September and is expected to begin testing within the year [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 3% to 39.3 billion yuan and 41.5 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Current stock prices correspond to a P/E ratio of 17x for 2025 and 16x for 2026, with target prices increased by 5% to 275 HKD and 177 USD, indicating an upside potential of 20% and 22% for HK and US stocks [2]

Group 1 - The gaming sector experienced a slight decline in the early trading session on October 16, with the gaming ETF (159869) showing a minor drop. However, it has attracted significant capital inflow of 2.394 billion yuan over the past 10 trading days, bringing its total scale to 10.815 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in A-share gaming leaders [1] - In September 2025, the National Press and Publication Administration released a total of 156 game licenses, including 145 domestic and 11 imported games. Notable titles include Tencent's "Guihuan," NetEase's "Xinghui Youqing Tian," and others [1] - From January to September 2025, the National Press and Publication Administration issued 1,195 domestic game licenses, a year-on-year increase of 24.61%, compared to 959 licenses in the same period of 2024. This reflects a supportive regulatory environment for the gaming industry [2] Group 2 - The gaming sector is undergoing multiple catalysts, including advancements in AI, content, and commercialization models. The gaming ETF (159869) tracks the CSI Animation and Gaming Index, reflecting the overall performance of A-share listed companies in the animation and gaming industry, highlighting investment opportunities [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The gaming sector continues to attract attention, with a recommendation to buy [3] - The normalization of game license issuance reflects ongoing regulatory support for the gaming industry, with 1,195 domestic game licenses issued from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.61% [3] - The domestic gaming market revenue in August 2025 was 29.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.01%, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [4][5] - The overseas sales revenue of self-developed games in August 2025 was 1.68 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 10.66% [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The relative performance over the last 12 months shows a 30.22% increase, while absolute performance indicates a 48.4% increase [2] - The gaming market experienced a revenue decline in August 2025, attributed to the lack of new blockbuster products and the fading popularity of last year's hit [4][5] Regulatory Environment - The National Press and Publication Administration issued 156 game licenses in September 2025, including 145 domestic and 11 imported games [3] - The issuance of game licenses has been consistent, with 79 imported game licenses issued in 2025 compared to 75 in the same period of 2024 [3] Investment Recommendations - The gaming sector is viewed positively due to strong cash flow, ongoing policy support, and deepening AI game development [7] - Key companies to focus on include Kyeing Network, Giant Network, G-bits, Tencent Holdings, and Xindong Company [7]

Group 1 - The game ETF (159869) has seen a narrowing decline of 0.25% as of September 30, with a net inflow of funds amounting to 1.298 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The product scale of the game ETF has reached a new high of 10.574 billion yuan since its inception, facilitating investors in easily accessing leading A-share gaming companies [1] - In September 2025, a total of 145 domestic game licenses and 11 imported game licenses were issued, with several major companies receiving approvals for their games [1] Group 2 - The gaming sector is experiencing multiple catalysts including AI, content, and commercialization model transformations, making the game ETF (159869) an attractive investment opportunity [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.74. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,612.1 billion [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and electrical equipment led the gains, while coal, banking, and social services lagged behind. Among concept sectors, zinc, nickel, and lead metals saw the highest increases, while pork, military restructuring concepts, and cultivated diamonds experienced declines [1][7] Market Performance - Domestic market indices closed as follows: Shanghai Composite Index at 3,862.53 (+0.90%), Shenzhen Component Index at 13,479.43 (+2.05%), and ChiNext Index at 3,238.01 (+2.74%). The total trading volume was 21,612.1 billion [4][7] - Internationally, the US indices also rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.15%, S&P 500 up by 0.26%, and Nasdaq up by 0.48%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong increased by 1.89% [4][7] Important News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing high-quality development and the need for a new development model that combines effective markets with proactive government roles [2][8] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool totaling 500 billion, aimed at supplementing project capital. This initiative is expected to leverage investments of approximately 6 trillion [2][8] Industry Insights - In the construction machinery sector, excavator and loader sales showed double-digit year-on-year growth in August, with excavator sales reaching 16,523 units (+12.8%) and loader sales at 9,440 units (+13.3%) [9][10] - The recovery in the construction machinery industry is supported by domestic equipment renewal policies and infrastructure projects, with expectations for sustained growth in both domestic and international markets [12] - The gaming industry saw a high volume of game approvals in September, with 145 domestic and 11 imported games receiving licenses, indicating a robust recovery in the sector [13][14]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market," indicating a projected increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - In September, the issuance of game licenses remained high, with 145 domestic games and 11 imported games approved, contributing to a total of 1,195 domestic games approved year-to-date [2]. - The newly approved game "Honkai: Star Rail" by miHoYo is a notable addition, focusing on a large world and creature collection, combining exploration with RPG elements, and featuring a PVE auto-battler gameplay [2]. - The game has garnered significant interest, with over 4.09 million pre-registrations by September 25, indicating strong market potential [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The game license issuance continues to show a stable upward trend, with a diverse range of products and well-known manufacturers involved [2][3]. - The overall supply side is consistently releasing new titles, reinforcing the normalization of license issuance and ongoing industry recovery [3]. Market Trends - Major companies are increasingly focusing on creature-raising games, with competitive titles emerging from Tencent and other developers, suggesting a crowded market landscape [2]. - The unique ecological design and gameplay of "Honkai: Star Rail" may allow it to carve out a niche in this competitive environment [2]. Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on leading companies with strong product pipelines, research capabilities, and diverse thematic layouts [3].

Core Insights - The issuance of game licenses in September remains high, with 145 domestic games and 11 imported games approved, indicating a stable trend in the normalization of license issuance and ongoing industry recovery [1][2] Group 1: Game License Issuance - In 2023, a total of 1,195 domestic games have been approved, with 145 approved in September alone, including titles from major companies like Tencent and miHoYo [2] - For imported games, 80 have been approved year-to-date, with 11 approved in September, featuring titles from companies such as Chuangmeng Tiandi and Xinghui Games [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - miHoYo's new game, "Honkai: Inheritance Spirit," combines world exploration with pet-raising elements and features a PVE auto-chess gameplay, which is expected to enhance player engagement [3] - The game has garnered significant interest, with over 4.09 million pre-registrations by September 25, indicating strong market potential [3] - The competition in the pet-raising game segment is intensifying, with several major players like Tencent and other developers also launching similar titles [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the approval volume of game licenses in September remains high, covering various types of products and well-known manufacturers [1] - From the beginning of the year to date, a total of 1,195 domestic games have been approved, with 145 games approved in September, including titles from Tencent, miHoYo, NetEase, and others [1] - For imported games, a total of 80 games have been approved this year, with 11 games approved in September, including titles from Chuangmeng Tiandi and Xinghui Games [1] Group 2 - The game ETF (516010) tracks the animation and gaming index (930901), which selects listed companies involved in animation production, game development, platform operation, and related industry chains to reflect the overall performance of the sector [1] - The index focuses on innovation and growth in the animation and gaming field, covering the entire industry chain from content creation to distribution channels, showcasing distinct industry representation and market vitality [1]

Industry Dynamics - In August 2025, China's gaming market revenue reached 29.263 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61% but a year-on-year decline of 13.01% [3] - The actual sales revenue of domestically developed games in overseas markets was 1.68 billion USD, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.79% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.66% [3] - The year-on-year decline in revenue is attributed to the high revenue base from the previous year due to the success of the game "Black Myth: Wukong," and the lack of similarly impactful new releases during the current period [3] Game Licensing - On September 24, the National Press and Publication Administration issued licenses for 156 games, including 145 domestic and 11 imported titles [4] - Notable titles include Tencent's "Return Ring," NetEase's "Star Drawing Friends," and miHoYo's "Honkai: Inheritance Spirit" [4] Domestic Company News - NetEase announced the shutdown of "The Legend of the Condor Heroes," effective November 24, due to the expiration of its IP cooperation with Minghe Publishing and adjustments in operational strategy [5] - Tencent's UK studio Splash Damage has been sold to overseas private equity investors; the studio was previously acquired by Tencent in 2022 [6] - Tom Cat's former chairman Wang Jian reduced his holdings by 31.58 million shares, exiting the major shareholder position, with his remaining stake now below 5% [7] - Wang Jian's history of share reductions includes 71 transactions from 2019 to 2020, totaling over 700 million yuan, raising concerns about the company's fundamentals [8] - Kingsoft's subsidiary, Kingsoft Game, has formed a strategic partnership with Sega and Rovio to reintroduce the popular IP "Angry Birds" to the Chinese market [9] Regulatory Compliance - The Mexican Ministry of Finance proposed an 8% special tax on games containing "violent" content as part of its 2026 budget plan, applicable to both domestic and foreign companies [10] Major Transactions - Electronic Arts (EA) is reportedly negotiating a privatization deal valued at approximately 50 billion USD (about 356.74 billion yuan), which could become the largest leveraged buyout in history [11] eSports Events - The qualification matches for the 2025 League of Legends World Championship concluded, with teams BLG, AL, TES, and iG representing the LPL region [12]

Summary of the Gaming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry in China has maintained high activity levels since the summer, with a market size of approximately 29 billion yuan in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of nearly 5% [1][4] - Mobile game revenue showed a slight increase, with several new games performing well, such as "Douluo Dalu: Soul Master World," which generated over 100 million yuan in its first month [1][4] - The market size remained stable in August compared to July, but there was a year-on-year decline, with mobile game revenue decreasing by 4% [1][4] Key Insights - The overall performance of the gaming industry has been positive this year, supported by a relaxation of policies and an acceleration in supply growth [2] - The industry is in an upward trend, with new game launches significantly boosting company performance [2] - The release of 156 game licenses in September, including 145 domestic and 11 imported, indicates a healthy regulatory environment [6][7] Company-Specific Developments - Huatuo's core overseas products have shown strong performance, leading to an 11% month-on-month increase in revenue for Diandian Interactive [8] - Giant Network's game "Supernatural" has exceeded expectations in revenue stability, with plans to launch an overseas version next year [8] - Key products approved include new titles from Tencent, NetEase, and miHoYo, indicating strong competition among major players [6][7] International Market Performance - Chinese self-developed games generated nearly 1.7 billion USD in overseas revenue in July, with a year-on-year growth in single digits [5] - Despite a 10% year-on-year decline in August due to high base effects, some products like KingShow's "Frost Knight" maintained strong growth, with a 20% month-on-month increase [5] Future Trends - The legendary game market is substantial, with annual revenues of 30-40 billion yuan, and more legendary games are expected to enter the market [9] - Future growth will come from expanding partnerships with larger companies, the introduction of 25 key legendary games, and enhancements in PC, live streaming, and item trading functionalities [9] Product Development and AI Initiatives - Kaiying Network is entering a new product cycle, with "Blood of the River and Lake" launched in South Korea and plans for several new titles by 2025-2026 [10] - The AI product EVE is expected to launch by the end of the year, and the AI gaming platform Soon may begin commercialization [10] Performance of Key Companies - Gigabit has consistently outperformed expectations, with "Sword of the Hero" showing strong overseas revenue growth of 14% month-on-month in August [11] - Perfect World and Shenzhou Taiyue have new titles in development, with Perfect World's "Yihuan" showcased at the Tokyo Game Show [12] Overall Market Sentiment - The gaming industry remains strong, with companies performing well even in the traditionally slower month of September [13] - Continued investment opportunities are recommended in companies such as Giant Network, Kaiying Network, ST Huatuo, Perfect World, Gigabit, Shenzhou Taiyue, and Sanqi Interactive [13]