Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Legoland parks globally, particularly focusing on the recent opening of the Shanghai Legoland, which has not met expectations in terms of visitor numbers and financial performance. It contrasts Legoland's performance with that of competitors like Disney and Universal Studios, highlighting the limitations of Legoland's appeal and its reliance on a younger demographic [5][10][15]. Group 1: Performance of Legoland Parks - The Shanghai Legoland opened in July 2023 with a visitor count of 7,500 in the first hour, significantly lower than the 50,000 tickets sold on the opening day of Shanghai Disneyland [5][6]. - Globally, Legoland parks have been struggling financially, with a projected revenue decline of 1.8% in 2024. The Korean Legoland has reported losses of £35 million over three years, while the New York Legoland lost £110 million last year [7][10]. - Merlin Entertainments, the operator of Legoland parks, reported an overall loss of £492 million in 2024 due to the poor performance of these parks [10]. Group 2: Historical Context and Ownership - Legoland parks were initially part of Lego's diversification strategy in the early 2000s but were sold to Merlin Entertainments in 2005 due to financial struggles [12][14]. - After a successful turnaround, Lego attempted to reacquire the parks in 2019, but the parks have since faced operational challenges [14][15]. Group 3: Market Position and Target Demographics - Legoland parks primarily target families with young children, with over 70% of visitors in Shanghai being families with children aged 2-12 [20][22]. - In contrast, Disney parks attract a broader age demographic, with a significant portion of visitors being adults without children, which enhances their revenue potential [16][18]. - The article emphasizes that Legoland's focus on younger children limits its appeal compared to competitors that cater to all age groups [15][27]. Group 4: Brand and IP Strategy - Unlike Disney, which creates and operates its own IP, Lego primarily relies on existing IP partnerships for its product lines, which limits its ability to attract visitors to its parks [25][26]. - The article notes that while Lego has successfully marketed its toys to adults, the same strategy has not translated effectively to its theme parks [22][27]. - Recent initiatives, such as the opening of a SEA LIFE aquarium at the Florida Legoland, indicate a shift towards diversifying attractions to appeal to a wider audience [29].

Summary of the Call Transcript on the Trendy Toy Industry Industry Overview - The trendy toy market was initiated by Hong Kong artists, integrating art and fashion elements, with diverse forms including figurines, sculptures, and blind boxes [1][2] - The broad definition of trendy toys includes collaborations with IPs from films, anime, and games, catering to specific enthusiasts [1][3] - The blind box segment has rapidly gained popularity due to low consumer and cognitive barriers, high adaptability, and hidden design features [1][4] Key Insights - **Consumer Demographics**: The core audience for trendy toys is aged between 15 and 40, with a higher proportion of female users, although the overall gender ratio is becoming more balanced [1][6][8] - **Market Size and Growth**: The domestic trendy toy market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026, with blind boxes showing high growth rates. The IP toy market is projected to be around 700 billion yuan, with building and assembly toys accounting for about 30% [1][11][12] - **Market Competition**: The market is fragmented, with LEGO leading at 12 billion yuan GMV, followed by Pop Mart at 8.7 billion and Brook at 2.5 billion. The top ten companies hold about 50% of the market share [1][13] Success Factors for Trendy Toy Companies - **Traffic IP**: Successful companies leverage high-traffic IPs, typically character designs rather than content-based, due to their higher commercialization potential [4][5] - **Product Quality**: High-quality products are essential, requiring effective design and supply chain barriers [5] - **Social Media and Secondary Market**: Effective social media marketing enhances brand visibility, while a convenient secondary market facilitates transactions [5] - **Entertainment and Interaction**: Creating engaging purchase experiences and interactive scenarios increases consumer entertainment value [5] Consumer Needs in Blind Box Purchases - **Value for Money**: Consumers seek affordable and easily accessible products [7] - **Emotional Connection**: There is a desire for self-identity, curiosity, and social recognition through collecting [7][6] - **Social Interaction**: Collecting and trading through social platforms fosters community engagement [7] IP Acquisition and Market Dynamics - **IP Acquisition**: The domestic market primarily acquires IP through self-incubation and collaborations with independent artists, with IP accounting for a small percentage of GMV [10] - **Future Trends**: The market is still in its early stages, with potential for structural changes and innovation in product categories [12] Company Strategies - **Pop Mart's Expansion**: Pop Mart is expanding its IP matrix and product categories, with plans to open 320 stores next year, increasing its overseas presence significantly [2][16][21] - **52TOYS Strategy**: 52TOYS focuses on a combination of self-owned and licensed IPs, with a significant portion of revenue coming from external IPs [22][23] Sales Channels and Revenue - **Diverse Sales Channels**: Both companies are diversifying their sales channels, with a significant reliance on distributors while also expanding direct-to-consumer (D2C) models [24][21] - **Revenue Projections**: 52TOYS generates 70-80% of its revenue from licensed IPs, with a focus on static blind boxes and figurines [23] Future Outlook - **IPO Plans**: The companies are preparing for potential IPOs, with Pop Mart expected to file in Hong Kong, aiming for a listing in 2025 or 2026 [26]

Group 1 - The seventh China AFOL Festival and LEGO Player Works Exchange Exhibition opened in Shanghai, attracting LEGO enthusiasts from around the world with over 500 exhibits [1] - The theme of this year's festival is "Building the World with Bricks," continuing the popularity of previous events and showcasing a variety of creative highlights [1] - A notable exhibit is the 3-meter-long diorama "Wind Rises in Luoyang City," created by 18 LEGO players from Henan, using nearly 30,000 LEGO pieces to depict the prosperity of Luoyang during the Tang Dynasty [1] Group 2 - The exhibition also featured over 100 antique LEGO collectibles from 1935 to 1978, presenting nearly a century of LEGO's innovative history [1] - The creative work "Yuxin Pavilion" gained significant attention for its impressive design, with the creator drawing inspiration from Chinese architecture encountered during travels [1][2] - A collaborative piece titled "Yuxin Pavilion·Fairy Mountain" combines hand-drawing, photography, and LEGO elements, showcasing the potential for cross-disciplinary creativity [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - Founded in 1932, LEGO has become one of the largest toy manufacturers globally, effectively navigating economic cycles due to its resonance across various aspects such as market, users, and operations, which serves as a reference for the development of Blokus [2][3] - In 2024, LEGO is projected to achieve revenue of 74.3 billion Danish Kroner, approximately 83.8 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, with a net profit of 13.8 billion Danish Kroner, about 15.6 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% increase [6][4] Summary by Sections LEGO: A Global Toy Company - LEGO, established in Denmark in 1932, initially produced wooden toys before transitioning to plastic bricks, becoming a leading toy manufacturer [6][5] - In 2024, LEGO's revenue is expected to reach 74.3 billion Danish Kroner (approximately 83.8 billion RMB), with a year-on-year growth of 12.76% [6][5] Successes and Failures of LEGO - Successes include the choice of the brick segment, which has a long product lifecycle, and the expansion of user demographics, including adult and female consumers [4][5] - Failures include the expiration of patents leading to market share loss and challenges from aggressive expansion strategies [4][5] Exploring Blokus's Development Path - The report draws parallels between LEGO's historical development and the current trajectory of Blokus, which is positioned as a leading player in China's building block toy market, with projected revenue of 2.241 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 156% [4][5] - Blokus's growth is supported by a rich IP portfolio and deep operational strategies, including content-driven marketing and channel expansion [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, the bond market has shown a "mountain" - shaped trend, with various meta - stories attracting market attention. However, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has been oscillating within a narrow range around 1.75%, and it is difficult for interest rates to break through previous lows due to multiple constraints [3][7]. - The market needs to reconstruct stories in several aspects, such as the decoupling of real estate and interest rates, explaining new consumption through structural "breakthroughs", the end of the global low - interest - rate era, focusing on the endogenous economic momentum, and the need for step - by - step verification from commodity supply - demand, PPI - CPI to interest rates [3]. - In the second half of the year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The funds will remain flat, the yield curve will steepen, and the long - end bond interest rate will be priced around the policy rate + funds rate weighted + 30/40BP, with the interest rate peak likely to occur in the fourth quarter [3][137]. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration. For credit bonds, look for opportunities in short - end credit sinking and long - end high - grade bonds; for interest - rate bonds, seek opportunities in old bonds, local bonds, and non - key - maturity Treasury bonds [138][143]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals: Growth without Real Estate, Desensitization of Commodities and Interest Rates - The influence of the real estate sector on the bond market and GDP has been declining. The trading volume proportion of real - estate - related stocks in the A - share market has decreased from 5.58% in 2015 to 1.04% in 2025, and its weight in the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped from 4.32% in 2016 to 1.17%. The impact of real estate fluctuations on GDP has also weakened [9]. - Commodity prices, represented by real - estate - related commodities such as rebar and glass, have continued to decline. The prices of rebar and glass futures have dropped by 9% and 24% respectively as of June 30 [16]. - By observing economic indicators excluding real estate and liquor, it can be found that the market risk preference has increased, and asset prices are decoupling from the real - estate chain and the liquor industry [18][23]. 3.2 Inflation: New Consumption "Everywhere", but "Invisible" in Prices - The CPI growth rate has been low this year, but there are some signs of new consumption, such as the popularity of premium blind boxes and high - end beauty products. The traditional inflation framework may have failed, and the re - inflation framework of optional consumption has emerged [26]. - The Lego price index shows that Lego investment has a high return rate, and its price increase is not in line with the global CPI trend. China's new consumption represented by trendy toys may be experiencing a "Lego moment" [30]. - The growth logic of trendy toys such as Lego and Pop Mart is similar, including first - level quantity control, second - level circulation platforms, emotional value provision, etc. The new consumption represented by trendy toys may be at the starting point of price increases, and the traditional inflation narrative is changing [33][37]. 3.3 Economic "Scar Effect" Integral Repair: Endogenous Growth Curve of Technology and Consumption Phenomena 3.3.1 Bottom - up Integration of Technology and Consumption - The development of the technology industry, such as the rise of DeepSeek, is the result of the overseas AI model impact - response structure. The development of the AI industry has promoted the growth of product performance and asset prices [38][40]. - The growth of new consumption is also the result of long - term "integration". The performance growth of new - consumption companies is not fully reflected in their stock prices. The popularity of trendy toys represented by Pop Mart is the response to the endogenous demand of new - consumption structure [41][45]. 3.3.2 Looking at Consumption through Subsidies: Is it Demand Front - loading or Release of Endogenous Momentum? - The national subsidy for trading in old products for new ones has boosted social retail sales. However, there are concerns about the continuation of the subsidy in the second half of the year. Even if the subsidy declines, consumption still has growth potential in non - subsidy commodities and service - based consumption [51][58]. 3.4 Global Interest - Rate Perspective: The Lagged Effect of China's Interest Rates Breaking out of the "ZLB" (Zero - Lower - Bound) Zone 3.4.1 Global Perspective: Quantitative Evidence of the Gradual Rise of the Interest - Rate Level - Most countries have basically emerged from the ZLB zone. The global interest - rate factor has shown an upward trend, and China's bond market has had an independent downward trend in the past three years, but the future interest - rate level may rebound with the global trend [68][71]. - Through principal component analysis of the policy rates of 39 major countries and regions, the first and second factors have an explanatory power of 66.81% and 23.29% respectively. China's interest - rate trend is relatively independent of these global factors [74]. 3.4.2 China's Interest Rates May be Experiencing the Lagged Conduction of the Global Interest - Rate Upturn - Most countries that entered the low - interest - rate zone did not stay there permanently. Japan, which has been in the low - interest - rate zone for the longest time, also had multiple interest - rate rebounds. China's interest - rate decline may be a lagged effect, and it is difficult for China's interest rates to remain low independently of the global trend for a long time [82][94]. 3.4.3 Internal Factors Determine the Direction, External Factors Determine the Fluctuation - Tariffs are not the decisive factor for asset prices and the economic fundamentals this year. The internal factors of consumption, such as the recovery of tourism consumption, the formation of new - consumption trends, and the increase in consumer - loan growth, are more important [104][106]. - A stable trading framework for dealing with external tariff events can be established in three steps: setting a baseline, making qualitative predictions, and adjusting the baseline according to market changes [110]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Liability Shortage under Sufficient Liquidity? - The characteristics of institutional behavior this year are limited allocation - disk funds and a decline in the winning rate of trading - disk operations. Insurance companies have shifted to equity assets, and banks have suffered from liability - end losses, while rural commercial banks, as the main trading - disk institutions, have a lower winning rate [111][114]. - The change from sufficient liquidity to liability shortage is mainly due to the transformation of deposits from time to demand and the transfer from bank deposits to non - bank deposits. This will bring problems such as pressure on bank certificate of deposit issuance, differences in the assets and liabilities of large and small banks, and banks' need to sell bonds to support profits [118][126]. - Insurance companies' bond - buying behavior has shown trading characteristics, and bank - wealth management growth has been relatively weak [128][130]. 3.6 Changes are Brewing in the Quietness - The stock, bond, and commodity markets have shown seemingly contradictory trends this year. The equity market is relatively strong, the bond market is average, and the commodity market is weak. The pricing of the equity market is more leading and sensitive [134]. - In the second half of the year, the central bank's total - volume monetary policy is not expected to be overly loose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The yield curve will steepen, and the interest - rate peak may occur in the fourth quarter [136][137]. - Technically, the Treasury - bond futures price is in a volatile market, and there are still cautious factors in the medium term. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration and look for opportunities in credit and interest - rate bonds [138][143].

Core Insights - The new LEGO product "Toothless" has faced poor sales performance, with a significant price difference between the official store and second-hand platforms, indicating a cooling market for LEGO products [2][11] - The overall LEGO market is experiencing increased competition, with some speculators shifting their focus to Labubu, a new toy brand, which is impacting LEGO's customer base [2][13] Sales Performance - Despite the challenges, the LEGO store in Jinan's Hang Lung Plaza reported stable customer traffic and sales, particularly during the summer season [3][5] - The official price of the new "Toothless" product remains consistent across online and offline channels, with no current discounts available [5][11] Market Trends - LEGO's overall financial performance remains strong, with a reported revenue of 743 billion Danish Kroner (approximately 70.27 billion RMB) for 2024, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth [7] - Older LEGO sets are reportedly selling better than new releases, with some customers preferring completed sets for their affordability and ease of use [11][12] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers express that LEGO products are becoming too expensive, leading to a decline in speculative buying behavior [11][13] - The appeal of completed LEGO sets is growing, as they offer a more immediate satisfaction compared to the higher-priced new sets [12][13] Competitive Landscape - The rise of Labubu and other domestic brands is creating a more competitive environment for LEGO, with some consumers feeling that LEGO has not innovated enough to maintain its market dominance [11][13] - The LEGO brand is attempting to adapt by increasing collaborations with popular IPs, such as Mario and Pixar, to attract a broader audience [14]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Lego Land, the largest in Asia, opened on July 5, 2023, but has received mixed reviews from visitors, with some criticizing the limited attractions and others praising it as a must-visit for Lego enthusiasts [3][4]. Group 1: Market Position and Competition - Lego Land is positioned as a competitor to Disney and Universal Studios, but it opened later than these established parks, which may affect its market presence [7][8]. - The park's ticket prices are the highest in Asia, with adult tickets priced at 549 yuan, which may deter potential visitors [10][11]. - The park's location in Jinshan District is relatively remote, approximately one hour from downtown Shanghai, which could impact visitor numbers [8][12]. Group 2: Visitor Experience and Feedback - Visitor feedback highlights three main concerns: high ticket prices, a focus on younger children (ages 2-12), and strict hotel policies that may deter families [10][12][13]. - The park's offerings are perceived as more suitable for children, leading to complaints that it is not engaging for older kids or adults [12]. - The hotel associated with Lego Land has strict check-in and check-out times, along with high fees for damages, which has drawn criticism from potential guests [13]. Group 3: Financial Considerations and Market Trends - The theme park industry in China is experiencing a shift, with consumers becoming more conservative in their spending, leading to a decline in secondary spending (food, merchandise) by 10%-30% [31][33]. - Despite Lego's strong brand presence in China, with a market share of 48.6% in the building toy sector, the timing of Lego Land's opening may not align with current consumer spending habits [28][30]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying with new parks like the Peppa Pig theme park set to open, which could further challenge Lego Land's market position [33].

Core Viewpoint - The opening of Shanghai Lego Land, the largest in Asia, has sparked mixed reactions, with some criticizing the limited attractions while others celebrate it as a haven for Lego enthusiasts and children [3][4]. Group 1: Market Position and Competition - Shanghai Lego Land is positioned as the most expensive theme park in Asia, with adult ticket prices reaching 549 yuan, surpassing those in Malaysia and Japan [15][24]. - The park's opening comes after major competitors like Disney and Universal Studios have already established their presence in China, raising questions about Lego's timing and market strategy [9][43]. - Despite Lego's strong brand recognition in China, with a market share of 48.6% in the building toy sector as of 2021, the park's initial reception suggests it may struggle to attract visitors compared to its competitors [42][44]. Group 2: Visitor Experience and Pricing - The park's pricing strategy includes a high single-day ticket price, while annual passes are priced at 1399 yuan, encouraging repeat visits to boost ancillary spending on food and merchandise [18][21]. - Visitor feedback highlights concerns about the park's focus on younger children (ages 2-12), leading to perceptions that it may not cater well to older children or adults [18][20]. - The hotel associated with the park has faced criticism for its strict check-in and check-out policies, as well as high compensation fees for damages, which may deter potential guests [20][21]. Group 3: Economic Context and Consumer Behavior - The current economic environment in China has led to more conservative spending habits among consumers, impacting the profitability of theme parks, which rely heavily on secondary spending [47][49]. - Research indicates that ticket sales typically account for about 30% of total revenue for mature theme parks, with food, retail, and accommodation making up the rest; however, secondary spending has seen a decline of 10%-30% recently [47][49]. - The competitive landscape in the Yangtze River Delta is intensifying, with new attractions like the Peppa Pig theme park set to open, further challenging Lego Land's market position [49].

Core Insights - The opening of the largest LEGO park in Shanghai marks a significant development in China's theme park economy, showcasing a blend of international and local entertainment brands [1][3] - The popularity of local IPs like Labubu from Pop Mart highlights the growing trend of integrating cultural elements into theme parks, enhancing their appeal and commercial value [5][6] Group 1: Theme Park Developments - The LEGO park in Shanghai features eight themed areas and thousands of LEGO models made from over 85 million bricks, attracting significant public interest since its trial operation began [1][3] - The park's opening day was characterized by high visitor engagement, with social media showcasing impressive LEGO constructions and immersive experiences [3][5] Group 2: Cultural Integration and Consumer Trends - The rise of theme parks reflects a shift in consumer preferences towards experiences that combine entertainment, culture, and leisure, driven by increasing living standards [6] - Many theme parks are incorporating traditional Chinese cultural elements, enhancing visitors' cultural identity and pride while providing diverse experiences [6] Group 3: Economic Impact - The development of theme parks is contributing to the integration of the cultural and tourism industries, creating a one-stop consumption ecosystem that boosts local economies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the Shanghai LEGO Resort highlights the company's strong commitment to the Chinese market and consumers, with plans for continued investment in China [1] Group 1: Company Commitment - The CEO of LEGO Group, Niels B. Christiansen, expressed confidence in the future prospects of the Chinese economy and emphasized the company's unwavering commitment to ongoing investments in the region [1] - China is identified as a "core market of strategic importance" for LEGO Group, showcasing its significance in the company's global strategy [1] Group 2: Market Innovation - China is recognized as a source of retail innovation, serving as a pioneer in many aspects of the industry, with experiences and innovations gained in China being applicable to other global markets [1]