Core Viewpoint - The discussion at the "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" highlights the duality of investment strategies in the face of global uncertainty, particularly the coexistence of traditional assets like gold and emerging assets like digital currencies [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The rise in gold prices is influenced by a historical and cultural consensus on its value, which may change over time and across generations [2]. - There is a trend of "dual betting," where investors allocate resources to both digital currencies and gold, representing a strategy to navigate uncertainty [3]. - This duality reflects a broader psychological need for security through diversified asset allocation in uncertain times [5]. Group 2: Perspectives on Assets - The conversation contrasts "accelerationism," where individuals embrace new technologies and digital currencies, with "decelerationism," where others seek stability through traditional assets like gold [2][4]. - The existence of both accelerationism and decelerationism in investment choices indicates a unified response to global uncertainties [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the toy industry Core Insights - The Japanese toy market has experienced stagnant growth over the past 30 years, with a shift in consumer preferences leading to a decline in traditional children's toys and a rise in emerging categories like card games and hobbies [1][3] - The market for assembly toys has shown volatility, with significant growth driven by blockbuster products in the late 1980s, followed by a decline, but a long-term upward trend as the player demographic expanded from children to adults [1][4] - The integration of intellectual property (IP) into the toy industry began in the 1970s, fostering collaboration between content creators and manufacturers, which has been crucial for the development of derivative markets [1][6] - The adultization trend in the toy industry became prominent after the 1990s, leading to increased demand for collectible items and the emergence of niche categories [1][8] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The Japanese toy industry has seen a significant shift in market share over the past two decades, with new categories like children's card games and hobbies gaining prominence while traditional toys have declined [5] - The assembly toy market has experienced notable volatility, with peaks in the late 1980s followed by declines, but a long-term trend of growth as the audience has expanded to include adults [4][10] Company Strategies - Major companies like Bandai and Takara Tomy have adopted platform strategies to monetize IP through acquisitions, diversifying their revenue streams and enhancing their ability to withstand market risks [2][15] - Bandai has successfully integrated various business models, targeting different age groups with a diverse range of products, thereby mitigating risks associated with market fluctuations [16] IP Development - The report highlights the importance of IP in the toy industry, with successful examples like "One Piece" demonstrating how a single IP can evolve and generate revenue across multiple platforms [14][13] - The assembly model market features key IPs such as Gundam, which has shown consistent growth, while others like Mini 4WD have experienced fluctuating popularity [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrast between traditional Japanese culture and modern technology at the Osaka Expo, showcasing how iconic anime characters are becoming central to the event, reflecting a new trend in IP commercialization and immersive experiences [1]. Group 1 - The Osaka Expo features popular Japanese anime characters like Astro Boy, Gundam, and Hello Kitty, which are transforming into best-selling merchandise and immersive experiences for visitors [1]. - The event serves as a demonstration of Japan's vibrant two-dimensional culture and offers insights into the evolving landscape of the two-dimensional market in China [1]. - The collaboration between the Expo Museum and First Financial aims to explore the diverse paths, innovative practices, and future visions of urban development from the Shanghai Expo in 2010 to the Osaka Expo in 2025 [1]. Group 2 - The program intends to decode the deep connections between Shanghai and the world from a global perspective, while also envisioning the ideal future city through Eastern wisdom [1]. - The initiative encourages ongoing engagement with the Expo's cultural journey, emphasizing the importance of Eastern civilization on the global stage [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive growth and performance of Pop Mart, a leading player in the "new consumption" sector in China, particularly in the overseas market, showcasing its strong IP innovation and market expansion strategies [9][10][12]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of 13.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion RMB, up 362.8% [10]. - The revenue from the Greater China region was 8.28 billion RMB, growing by 135.2%, while the Americas saw a staggering revenue increase of 1142%, reaching 2.26 billion RMB [10][12]. - The company's stock price has surged by 250% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor confidence [9]. Market Expansion - Pop Mart's North American market focus has led to the opening of 19 new stores, bringing the total to 41, with offline revenue increasing by 744.3% to 840 million RMB [14]. - The company has implemented a free shipping policy for orders over 29.9 USD, enhancing its online sales, which now account for 40% of total revenue [14]. IP Innovation - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its strong IP innovation capabilities, with key IPs like LABUBU generating 4.81 billion RMB in revenue, accounting for 34.7% of total sales [12]. - The company faces the challenge of sustaining revenue growth from its existing top IPs while developing new ones to maintain its market position [16]. Valuation and Market Outlook - Despite impressive growth, Pop Mart's valuation exceeds a 100x PE ratio, raising concerns about sustainability if future EPS growth does not meet expectations [16]. - Analysts suggest that the longevity of individual IPs will be crucial for maintaining high valuations, with the potential for significant market growth compared to established brands like Sanrio and LEGO [17][18].

Core Insights - The China International Digital Entertainment Industry Conference (CDEC) was held in Shanghai alongside ChinaJoy, focusing on the emotional value and consumer dynamics of IP in the digital age [1] - The newly added ChinaJoy IP Conference aimed to explore how IP development can achieve breakthroughs in both emotional resonance and commercial value [1] Group 1: IP Development Strategies - The conference featured executives from renowned companies such as Chinese Online, Yu Wen Group, Bandai Namco, and Walt Disney, sharing insights on IP cultivation strategies [1] - Bandai Namco's General Manager, Nakajima Tomofumi, highlighted the success of the "Mobile Suit Gundam" IP, which has evolved into a vast industry encompassing various media forms since its debut in 1979 [1][10] Group 2: Key Elements for IP Success - Nakajima emphasized five crucial elements for maximizing IP appeal, with compelling characters and storylines being paramount for fan engagement [10] - The "Gundam" franchise has produced over 40 works, each with unique themes and characters, contributing to its longevity and sustained fan interest [10] Group 3: Brand Strategy and Market Adaptation - A robust brand strategy is essential for long-term IP presence in fans' minds, as demonstrated by "Gundam" breaking traditional animation norms and establishing a new concept in the genre [10][11] - Bandai Namco employs a diversified business strategy across anime, games, films, and merchandise, allowing for broader fan engagement and maximizing IP value [11] - The company adapts to market trends and consumer demands, particularly in China, by developing targeted products and marketing strategies [11]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' latest report analyzes the cyclical patterns of IP companies, stating that the typical popularity cycle for a single IP lasts 2-3 years, with platformization being a viable solution for sustainability [1][2] - The report identifies three typical stock price response patterns for IP companies based on their development stages: rapid growth, maturity, and diversification [1][5] Group 1: IP Cycle and Market Potential - The popularity cycle of single IPs generally lasts 2-3 years, as evidenced by examples like Lingna Belle and Kuromi in the Chinese market [2] - Companies with continuous content generation capabilities can extend their IP cycles beyond the typical duration [2] - The Chinese IP toy market shows significant potential, with per capita spending at 124 RMB (17 USD), which is only 1/17 of North America's and 1/4 of Japan's spending [12] Group 2: Stock Price Response Patterns - In the high-growth phase, stock price turning points often occur when high-frequency data shows signs of weakness, regardless of optimistic profit expectations [5] - In the maturity phase, stock price turning points align with downward revisions in profit expectations [5] - Companies with diversified business models are less affected by single IP cycles, demonstrating more resilient stock price performance [5] Group 3: Factors Influencing Sustainable Growth - Five key drivers for sustainable growth in IP companies include diverse product offerings, resource investment, monetization capabilities, customer interaction, and IP portfolio expansion [4][10] - Disney and Bandai are highlighted as exemplary companies in building comprehensive IP ecosystems, showcasing strong profitability resilience [4] Group 4: Bubble Mart Analysis - Goldman Sachs conducted a scenario analysis for Bubble Mart, suggesting that in the most optimistic scenario, long-term revenue potential could reach 81 billion RMB (11 billion USD), comparable to Lego's level [1][8] - The report maintains a neutral rating for Bubble Mart with a target price of 260 HKD, based on a 25x expected P/E ratio for 2027 [11] - Bubble Mart's growth is driven by both internal factors (product development, category expansion) and external factors (celebrity endorsements, rising emotional value demand) [8] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The rise of short video platforms and reduced content supply has created opportunities for non-content IPs [3] - The report emphasizes that establishing an IP platform is crucial for unlocking growth potential and achieving long-term success [11]

Core Viewpoint - The global IP economy is experiencing a significant surge, with major IP operators like Sanrio, Bandai Namco, and Nintendo seeing their stock prices reach historical highs, while Disney also achieved a near three-year high [1] Group 1: Performance of Major IP Operators - Sanrio's Hello Kitty, Bandai Namco's Dragon Ball, One Piece, and Gundam, along with Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon, are among the most recognized IPs in China [1] - The stock prices of these IP operators have shown a strong upward trend over a considerable period, with Sanrio's stock rising since June 2022 and Bandai Namco and Nintendo experiencing over a decade of growth [1] - Tsuburaya Productions, known for Ultraman, saw its stock price increase by over 1000% from January 2022 to August 2023, driven by the success of Ultraman card games in China [1][2] Group 2: Characteristics of Classic IPs - Classic IPs possess a "cross-cycle" capability, remaining relevant despite significant societal changes and evolving consumer habits [2] - The development of new products such as cards, building blocks, and other merchandise around these classic IPs has created new growth opportunities [2] - Disney exemplifies the importance of both sustaining classic IPs and developing new ones, with its iconic Mickey Mouse and the continuous introduction of new IPs through films and merchandise [2] Group 3: Development of IP Industry in China - China's IP industry has seen rapid growth in recent years, with original IPs like Nezha and Bubble Mart's LABUBU gaining market recognition [3] - However, transitioning from recognized IPs to "classics" remains a challenge for the industry [3] - A systematic and gradual IP operation strategy, as seen in many Japanese classic IPs, is crucial for endowing IPs with "cross-cycle" capabilities [3]

Core Insights - The traditional promotional model of "618" is evolving as consumers become more discerning about their purchases, focusing on the reasons behind their buying decisions rather than just discounts [2][9] Group 1: Changes in Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing high cost-performance products, leading to a normalization of value-driven offerings across both online and offline platforms [3][4] - The impact of promotions on consumer behavior is diminishing, with consumers becoming more aware of their needs and less influenced by single promotional events [4] - The market share of domestic brands in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector has risen from 66% in 2012 to an expected 76% by 2024, indicating a shift towards local brands that better understand consumer preferences [4] Group 2: E-commerce Platform Strategies - E-commerce platforms are moving away from complex discount structures to simpler pricing strategies, which reduces decision-making costs for consumers and enhances shopping experiences [3] - Platforms like Taobao, JD, Douyin, and Kuaishou are focusing on emotional engagement and user understanding to drive sustainable growth, rather than relying solely on price competition [3][6] - Instant retail is reshaping the purchasing and fulfillment process, with significant growth in categories like alcohol and baby formula during the "618" period, highlighting the demand for quick delivery services [6] Group 3: Emotional Economy and New Trends - The emotional economy is becoming a key driver of consumer behavior, with platforms leveraging content and emotional resonance to stimulate "self-rewarding" consumption [7][8] - The integration of content marketing with e-commerce is evident, as seen in initiatives like the "Red Cat Plan" by Taobao and Xiaohongshu, targeting specific consumer segments [7] - The rise of niche markets, such as the toy and collectible sector, has led to explosive sales growth, with many merchants achieving significant sales milestones during the "618" event [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a strategic partnership with Bandai Namco, leading to significant expansions in retail and IP collaboration, particularly in the collectible toy market [1]. Group 1: Strategic Partnerships and Expansions - The company announced a deep strategic cooperation with Bandai Namco, leveraging the success of the Gundam pop-up store in Changsha in April 2024 [1]. - In December 2024, the company obtained distribution rights for Bandai Namco's Gundam base and related merchandise, opening the first Gundam base in Jiangsu [1]. - The company plans to open China's first Bandai model store in March 2025, featuring popular IPs such as Gundam, Pokémon, and Doraemon [1]. Group 2: Business Performance and Growth Strategy - The company achieved a breakthrough in cross-industry collaboration in 2024, expanding into the trendy toy consumption sector [1]. - The company will implement a dual-track expansion strategy focusing on "core regional cities + key business districts," with initial plans to enter high-quality commercial spaces in Changsha [1]. - Over the next three years, the company aims to expand its national presence at a rate of 3-5 new stores annually, enhancing store profitability through digital operations and limited product strategies [1]. Group 3: Revenue Performance of Gundam Base Stores - The Suzhou Gundam base store, which opened in December 2024, has exceeded expectations in its first five months of operation [2]. - The store achieved industry benchmark levels in single-store sales efficiency and demonstrated high member repurchase rates, indicating strong IP loyalty [2]. - The store has already reached profitability in its first quarter of operation [2].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Japanese IP Toy Industry Industry Overview - The Japanese IP toy industry is primarily dominated by Bandai and Tomy, with a rich history and significant market presence. Bandai specializes in character-based toys, achieving annual sales of 20 million to 30 million units, with peak sales of 60 million units for its second-generation products. Tomy is known for its original toys, such as vehicles and dolls [3][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Challenges and Consolidation**: The industry faced challenges in the late 1990s due to demographic and economic downturns, leading to a significant consolidation in 2005-2006, resulting in the formation of Bandai and Tomy. Bandai integrated its supply chain through the acquisition of Bandai Namco, while Tomy expanded its product line [3][5]. - **Bandai's Competitive Advantage**: Bandai's core competitive advantage lies in maximizing IP value through close collaboration with Toei Animation, monopolizing the Japanese boys' toy market. Their strategy includes diversifying revenue streams across toys, mobile games, and PC games [3][6]. - **Gundam's Revenue Structure**: Gundam, as Bandai's most profitable IP, shows a balanced revenue contribution from both games and toys, indicating long-term growth potential for mech-building products. Bandai enhances operational efficiency through copyright acquisitions and rapid product design approvals [3][7]. - **Tomy's Recent Developments**: Tomy faced difficulties pre-pandemic due to a lack of localized IP resources, relying heavily on American collaborations. Post-pandemic, Tomy leveraged the global toy market's beta effect, transitioning to online marketing and expanding into adult entertainment products [3][9]. - **Sanrio's Business Model**: Sanrio exhibits cyclical development, with significant profit growth through IP licensing, particularly in the Chinese market, where partnerships with Alibaba Sports have yielded profit margins exceeding 40% [3][12]. - **Valuation Trends**: The valuations of Bandai, Tomy, and Sanrio differ significantly. Pre-pandemic, Tomy and Bandai were valued at 15-20 times earnings, while Sanrio maintained around 20 times. Post-pandemic, Sanrio's valuation surged to 50 times due to successful global licensing and a focus on adult consumer trends [3][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Potential in China's IP Toy Market**: The potential for China's IP toy market is substantial, with the children's market estimated to be over three times that of Japan. The overall market for all ages also shows similar growth potential [3][18]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Notable companies to watch in the investment landscape include Brook (leading in building toys), Kayo (card game leader), TOP TOY (rapid revenue growth), and Guangbo (capitalizing on the two-dimensional IP economy) [3][19][20]. - **Global Card Game Market Trends**: The global card game market has seen a resurgence post-pandemic, driven by increased demand for collectible cards, revealing significant potential in the domestic IP commercialization market [3][14][15].