近日，中国证监会就《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，此举 可能会对占据基金代销市场重要地位的商业银行产生何种影响？业内人士表示，银行对基金销售费率改 革已有预期，由于征求意见稿聚焦个人客户服务、权益基金，鼓励长期投资，未来银行或更加偏好业绩 稳定、管理规范的大型基金管理人和权益基金。长期来看，征求意见稿有助于引导银行代销回归本源、 提升专业服务能力，推动公募基金行业健康发展。（中国证券报） 基金销售费率改革下的银行代销：或向权益基金与服务升级聚焦 近日，老牌科技公司甲骨文（Oracle）以单日大涨40%的行情表现震撼全球资本市场。原因在于该公司 公布的2026财年第一财季（2025年6月1日—8月31日）业绩数据显示，公司云基础设施（OCI）业务中 的剩余履约义务（RPO）同比增长359%，达到4550亿美元，其中近60%来自与OpenAI签署的5年3000亿 美元推理算力订单。国内头部云计算厂商业务负责人告诉记者，虽然这笔规模庞大的订单从签署到真正 交付仍存在不确定性因素，但也向整个产业链传递了算力尤其是推理算力供不应求的明确信号，增强产 业链坚定向AI和云领域投入的信心。 ...

整理记录：李杰 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、 宏观策略（仇华） 1.1、宏观政策（仇华） 据 Wind 数据，近期公布的宏观数据主要有进出口、CPI、PPI 以及 M1、M2 等。 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 9 月 15 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 王文瑞 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 孙菲 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 A 股指数上周震荡上行，上证指数、深证成指盘中创出近期新高，具体原因有：一是 A 股自 8 月末开始强势横盘整理，前期调整的通讯设备、半导体、元件等科技板块上周开始转 强；二是宏观数据方面，8 月 PMI 有所转强，8 月出口当月同比增速虽有所下滑，但累计增 速依然保持在 6%附近，强于市场预期。目前市场依然处于"慢牛"运行态势，预期 9 月份 A 股市场将总体保持宽幅震荡，逐级抬升的态势。 一级行业涨多跌少，二级行业元件、通信设备累计涨幅居前 据 Wind 数据，31 个申万一级行业上周涨多跌少。周涨幅居前的板块 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the nuclear power sector, particularly in relation to AI energy consumption, highlighting companies such as Entergy, Talen Energy, and Constellation Energy as key players [5]. Core Insights - The demand for AI computing is driving a significant boom in cloud infrastructure, benefiting service providers directly [9]. - The U.S. energy market is experiencing dynamic changes, with Conduit Power providing bridging power for ENGIE's battery sites in Texas and Google collaborating on long-duration energy storage projects [9]. - The report emphasizes the strong long-term demand for infrastructure construction in the U.S., particularly in the context of industrial resurgence and AI data center development [5]. Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - The explosive demand for AI computing is leading to increased reliance on cloud infrastructure services, with Oracle reporting a 54% year-on-year increase in cloud infrastructure revenue [9]. - Major cloud service providers are becoming critical in handling the overflow of AI workloads due to their flexible supply capabilities [9]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index in the U.S. increased by 4.43% year-on-year and 3.8% month-on-month as of July 2025, indicating a stable competitive landscape [11]. - The U.S. electricity demand forecast has been revised upwards, with expectations of a 15.8% increase by 2029, driven by industrial resurgence and AI data center growth [19][20]. Global Energy Industry - The NYMEX natural gas futures price was reported at $3.10 per million British thermal units, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.6% [3]. - The report highlights the expected balance in the natural gas market supply and demand as the global energy transition progresses [5]. Global New Materials - The report notes a 6% month-on-month increase in the global uranium spot price, indicating ongoing interest in nuclear energy as a stable power source for AI data centers [4]. Global Defense and Aerospace - The report suggests that the recovery of the aerospace industry and increased defense spending will benefit companies like BAE Systems and Raytheon Technologies [6]. Key Company Insights and Commentary - GE Vernova is investing significantly in expanding its generator manufacturing capacity to meet growing global electricity demand [39]. - Siemens Energy is also expanding its transformer manufacturing capabilities in response to the increasing global demand for energy transition solutions [39]. - The report highlights the collaboration between various companies in the nuclear sector, including KHNP and Centrus, to enhance low-enriched uranium supply and explore potential investments in the U.S. [44].

Core Insights - Oracle's stock price fell over 6% after reaching a record high, with analysts raising concerns about the company's reliance on a single client, OpenAI, for future growth [1][3] - Oracle reported a significant increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $455 billion, a 359% year-over-year growth, with $317 billion added in the first quarter alone [1][2] - The company anticipates cloud infrastructure revenue to grow 14 times by 2030, driven by its competitive position in the AI computing market [1] Financial Performance - Oracle's first-quarter earnings report revealed a surge in future contract revenue, with a notable contract with OpenAI valued at $300 billion over five years, starting in 2027 [2][3] - The recent quarterly report indicated that nearly 95% of the new future contract revenue was attributed to the OpenAI deal [2] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Oracle's stock rose by 30% in after-hours trading and nearly 36% the following day, reaching a closing price of $328.33 [1] - However, after the concerns regarding customer concentration emerged, Oracle's stock price dropped to $307.86, a decrease of 6.23% [3][4] Analyst Concerns - Analysts expressed skepticism about Oracle's order backlog, highlighting risks related to customer concentration and the potential delay in revenue recognition [3] - Morgan Stanley estimated that only about 10% of the $455 billion RPO would be recognized as revenue within the next 12 months, raising questions about the sustainability of Oracle's growth [3]

在周三收盘创下历史新高后，周四甲骨文股价收盘下跌逾6%。 分析师在报告中针对甲骨文的巨额订单提出了多重风险，包括公司未来大部 分增长将来自单一客户：OpenAI 。 当地时间周二美股盘后，甲骨文公布了第一财季业绩。在财报电话会上，甲骨文披露其剩余履约义务（RPO）已飙升至4550亿美元，同比 增长359%，其中仅第一季度就新增了3170亿美元。甲骨文首席执行官Safra Catz表示，上一季度公司与三家不同的客户签署了四份大型 合同，并预期未来数月还将有更多类似交易，使积压订单规模突破5000亿美元。 甲骨文在其预测中称，到2030年，云基础设施收入将增长14倍。 以数据库软件闻名的甲骨文，近来在炙手可热的云计算市场突飞猛进，与亚马逊、微软及Alphabet旗下的谷歌在AI算力市场展开竞争。甲骨 文通过与英伟达等公司合作，在其云基础设施（OCI）中部署大规模的GPU集群，为AI模型训练和推理提供强大的算力支持。 在甲骨文公布第一财季业绩后，该公司股价在周二盘后交易中上涨了30%。周三，该股收盘上涨近36%，收于328.33美元的创纪录高位。 "有报道称甲骨文的积压订单几乎全部来自OpenAI，这大大降低了我们 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - August PPI data unexpectedly cooled, alleviating market inflation pressures and boosting investor optimism regarding potential accelerated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which in turn supported the U.S. stock market [1] - Oracle signed a groundbreaking $300 billion cloud services agreement with OpenAI, enhancing market confidence in the long-term growth of the AI industry [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was dragged down by a decline in Apple’s stock price, failing to follow other major indices upward [1] Group 2: Oracle's Performance - Oracle's stock surged due to impressive cloud service performance expectations and the signing of a $300 billion cloud services agreement [3] - The company's unconfirmed revenue backlog (RPO) reached $455 billion by the end of August, tripling in just three months, with expectations to push this figure towards $500 billion soon [3][4] - Oracle anticipates its cloud business revenue to reach $18 billion in the current fiscal year, a 77% year-over-year increase, with projected growth to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the next four years [4] Group 3: Strategic Transformation - The partnership with OpenAI marks a significant shift for Oracle, transitioning from traditional enterprise services to becoming a leading AI computing power supplier [5] - This collaboration not only signifies a breakthrough in revenue but also establishes Oracle's long-term leadership position in the AI cloud infrastructure market [5] - Oracle's shift to a long-term subscription revenue model enhances revenue predictability, customer stickiness, and growth potential [5] Group 4: Comparison with Broadcom - Broadcom's stock also saw a significant increase following a $10 billion AI accelerator order from OpenAI, highlighting its capabilities in the AI hardware sector [6][7] - Unlike Oracle's subscription model, Broadcom relies on one-time product sales, but the order strengthens its narrative in the AI hardware market [7] - Both Oracle and Broadcom illustrate a market trend where companies successfully transition their business narratives to high-growth sectors, leading to explosive stock price increases [7][8] Group 5: Robinhood's New Initiative - Robinhood announced the launch of "Robinhood Social," a platform allowing users to track and view the trades of verified investors, set to launch early next year [10] - This new feature aims to enhance information transparency and authenticity compared to traditional social media platforms [10][12] - The platform will initially invite 10,000 users for testing, with plans to expand based on market response, focusing on real-time updates of shared trades [15]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock surged over 41% on September 10, leading to a historic increase in wealth for co-founder Larry Ellison, who became the world's richest person with a net worth of $393 billion, driven by strong market expectations for AI growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Oracle's latest earnings report for Q1 FY2026 showed adjusted earnings per share of $1.47, slightly below analyst expectations of $1.48, and revenue of $14.93 billion, also below the forecast of $15.04 billion [2]. - The company's remaining performance obligations (RPO) skyrocketed to $455 billion, a year-on-year increase of 359%, indicating strong demand for its cloud services [2][5]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, multiple investment banks raised Oracle's target price significantly, with Wolfe Research increasing it from $300 to $400, and Bank of America raising it from $295 to $368 [5][6]. - The surge in Oracle's stock price also positively impacted the broader semiconductor sector, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 2.5% [1]. Strategic Positioning - Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue reached $3.3 billion in the last quarter, reflecting a 55% year-on-year growth, and is projected to reach $18 billion in FY2026, a nearly 77% increase from FY2025 [3]. - CEO Safra Catz announced an increase in capital expenditure guidance to approximately $35 billion to meet the surging demand for AI-related services [4]. AI Market Insights - Larry Ellison emphasized that Oracle has become a key provider of infrastructure for AI model training, having signed significant cloud contracts with leading AI companies like OpenAI and Meta [7]. - Ellison highlighted the potential of the AI inference market, predicting it to be larger than the AI training market, with applications across various industries [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in Oracle's stock price, driven by strong financial results and a massive increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO), which has sparked enthusiasm in the AI-driven growth narrative in the market [2][6]. Financial Performance - Oracle's stock price soared over 41% at one point, closing with a gain of 38.84%, marking the largest single-day increase since 1999 [4][6]. - The company's market capitalization rose to $941.94 billion (approximately ¥67,100 billion), with a single-day increase of $263.5 billion (approximately ¥19,000 billion) [6]. - For the first fiscal quarter of 2026, Oracle reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.47, slightly below analyst expectations of $1.48, and revenue of $14.93 billion, also below the expected $15.04 billion [6]. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) - Oracle's RPO surged to $455 billion, a staggering year-on-year increase of 359%, which exceeded market expectations significantly [6][10]. - This explosive growth is attributed to large-scale cloud contracts with leading AI companies such as OpenAI, xAI, and Meta, positioning Oracle as a key infrastructure provider for AI model training [6][11]. Cloud Infrastructure Growth - Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue reached $3.3 billion in the last quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55% [7]. - The company anticipates cloud infrastructure revenue to hit $18 billion in fiscal year 2026, a nearly 77% increase from $10.3 billion in fiscal year 2025, with projections for subsequent years indicating substantial growth [8]. Analyst Reactions - Following Oracle's financial report, multiple investment banks raised their target prices for the stock, with Wolfe Research increasing its target from $300 to $400, suggesting a market cap of $1.12 trillion [10]. - Analysts noted that the reported backlog data was unprecedented, with expectations for RPO around $180 billion, making Oracle's actual figure several times higher [10]. AI Market Insights - Oracle's Chairman Larry Ellison emphasized that AI is fundamentally transforming the company, with a focus on the AI inference market, which he believes will be larger than the AI training market [11][12]. - Ellison outlined Oracle's strategy to capture the AI inference market through its new "AI database," asserting that the company's AI narrative is just beginning [11][12]. Competitive Advantage - Ellison highlighted Oracle's technological edge, claiming that its data centers are faster and more cost-effective for AI model training compared to competitors [13]. - He attributed this advantage to Oracle's underlying technology, particularly its network capabilities, which enhance data transfer speeds and reduce costs [13].