Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1% [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with significant price hikes in transportation-related services due to the summer travel season [1][2] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a steady upward trend [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies and gradual release of consumption potential, alongside the establishment of a unified domestic market [3] - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with household appliances seeing a 2.8% increase, reflecting a positive impact on CPI [3] - Service prices also experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with notable rises in household and educational services, contributing to the overall CPI growth [3][4] Group 3 - Overall, the CPI in July remained stable, with positive changes continuing to emerge, although the market still faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand [4] - Future policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and furthering the construction of a unified national market are expected to continue yielding positive effects on price levels [4]

Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal factors. The PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and industrial producer prices remained sluggish. China's overall economic activity expectations are in a moderate state, and the inflation level may continue to hover at a low level for some time [5][15]. Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous value of a 0.1% increase. From January to July, the average CPI decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year. Food prices in July decreased 1.6% year - on - year, pulling down the CPI by about 0.29 percentage points. Non - food prices rose 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, consumer goods prices decreased 0.4% year - on - year, and service prices rose 0.5% year - on - year [2][6]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices. Food prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, non - food prices rose 0.5% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, and service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.26 percentage points. Core CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mostly due to seasonal factors [3][7]. - **Eight - Category CPI**: In July, food and tobacco prices decreased 0.1% month - on - month, housing prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, medical care prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, clothing prices decreased 0.3% month - on - month, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.8% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 0.9% month - on - month [8]. - **Future Outlook**: As of August 10, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 113.96, lower than 126.50 in the same period last year. Agricultural product prices in July hovered at a low level and slightly increased in early August, but the increase rate was much lower than that of the same period last year. Agricultural product prices are unlikely to drive up the CPI in August [3][10]. PPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 3.4% decline. From January to July, the average PPI decreased 2.9% compared with the same period last year. Production material prices decreased 4.3% year - on - year, and living material prices decreased 1.6% year - on - year [3][11]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Production material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and living material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Some industries with large month - on - month price declines included coal mining and washing, non - metallic mineral products, and ferrous metal ore mining. Industries with relatively large month - on - month price increases included oil and gas extraction, oil, coal and other fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling [4][13]. - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: The price of the automobile manufacturing industry decreased 0.3% month - on - month, indicating continuous price competition pressure in the automobile industry [4][13]. PMI Situation - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The new order index was 49.4%, back in the contraction range. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. The service business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The new order index was 46.3%, and the business activity expectation index was 56.6% [5][15].

Core Viewpoint - In July, the "anti-involution" policy led to a narrowing of the PPI month-on-month decline to -0.2%, while the CPI for industrial consumer goods improved, contributing to a third consecutive month of core CPI year-on-year recovery. However, the impact of supply-side capacity management on prices is more moderate compared to 2016, with PPI year-on-year decline remaining at a two-year low of -3.6% and CPI year-on-year turning flat [2][19]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0% in July, primarily dragged down by food items, while core CPI rose to 0.8% [4]. - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing a marginal drag of 0.30 percentage points to the overall CPI [8]. - Seasonal supply of fresh vegetables and fruits was abundant, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in their prices, with fresh vegetables down 7.6% and fresh fruits up 2.8% [8][11]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% to -0.2% in July, but the year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, indicating limited effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures on price uplift [19]. - Key industries such as coal, steel, and cement have implemented capacity management measures, which have led to a reduction in the month-on-month price declines for these sectors [19]. - International factors continue to pressure export-related prices, while domestic oil and non-ferrous metal prices have seen increases due to external input factors [20]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures have led to a faster increase in futures prices compared to spot prices, indicating market expectations are ahead of actual supply-side adjustments [24]. - Looking ahead, the diminishing drag from tailing factors may lead to improvements in PPI year-on-year in August and CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter, but sustained inflation recovery will require stronger policy support and a focus on expanding domestic demand [24]. - The current supply-side price uplift is more challenging and softer compared to 2016, with a broader range of industries involved, including upstream raw materials and downstream sectors [24].

Inflation Data Summary - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year remained at 0.0%, down from 0.1% in June, while the month-on-month increased by 0.4% compared to a previous decrease of -0.1%[2] - The PPI year-on-year remained at -3.6%, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2%, an improvement from -0.4% in June[2] CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year rose to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024, driven by a 0.6% increase in service prices[2] - Food prices showed significant weakness, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2%, below the 5-year average of 1.1%[2] - Non-food prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year, up from 0.1% in June, with travel services and certain consumer goods contributing to this rise[2] PPI Insights - The month-on-month decline in PPI narrowed to -0.2%, the smallest drop since March 2025, indicating a potential stabilization in upstream prices[2] - The decrease in production materials was -0.2%, a reduction of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by "anti-involution" policies[2] Risks and Future Outlook - Key risks include potential delays in domestic policy implementation, unexpected declines in real estate investment, and inflation in the U.S. exceeding expectations[2]

中新社北京8月9日电 随着扩内需政策效应持续显现，中国消费领域价格继续呈现积极变化。中国国家 统计局9日公布，7月份，扣除食品和能源价格的核心居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨0.8%，涨幅连续3 个月扩大。 同期，工业消费品价格环比上涨0.5%，涨幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点。提振消费政策带动需求持续回 暖，叠加"618"促销活动结束，扣除能源的工业消费品价格环比上涨0.2%，其中燃油小汽车和新能源小 汽车价格均由连续5个月以上的下降转为持平。 从核心CPI看，7月份0.8%的同比涨幅为2024年3月以来最高。其中，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上 涨37.1%和27.3%；服务价格同比上涨0.5%，涨幅持续保持稳定；燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格同比 分别下降2.6%和1.9%，降幅分别为近34个月和28个月最小。 主要受食品价格较低影响，7月份CPI同比持平。在上年同期价格基数较高的情况下，当月食品价格同 比下降1.6%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分点。其中，鲜菜价格同比下降7.6%，降幅比上月扩大7.2个百分 点，鲜果价格同比上涨2.8%，涨幅比上月回落3.3个百分点。非食品价格同比上涨0.3%，涨幅比上月扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the impact of seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties on these indices. It notes a shift in CPI from a decline to an increase, while PPI continues to show a decrease but at a reduced rate. CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with year-on-year growth remaining flat [2] - The year-on-year CPI was primarily influenced by lower food prices, which fell by 1.6%, a decline that widened by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing approximately 0.29 percentage points to the CPI's year-on-year decline [2] - Non-food prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Seasonal factors, particularly the summer travel season, led to significant increases in service prices, with airfares, tourism, and accommodation costs rising by 17.9%, 9.1%, and 6.9% respectively [5] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, marking the first reduction in the rate of decline since March [7] - The decline in PPI was attributed to seasonal factors and uncertainties in the international trade environment, which affected prices in several industries [7] - Specific industries such as non-metallic mineral products, black metal smelting, and coal mining saw price declines of 1.4%, 0.3%, and 1.5% respectively [7] - The competitive market environment has improved, leading to a reduction in the rate of price decline in several sectors, including coal and steel [8] Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics anticipates a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic performance, effective domestic demand policies, and reduced low-price competition among enterprises [9]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1][3][4] - The year-on-year stability of the CPI was primarily influenced by lower food prices, which decreased by 1.6% compared to the same month last year. Fresh vegetable prices fell by 7.6%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 2.8% [3][4] - The month-on-month increase in CPI was driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices, with service prices up by 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up by 0.5% [4][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In July, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline consistent with June's figures. However, the month-on-month decline of 0.2% showed a narrowing compared to June [5][6] - Certain industries experienced improved supply-demand relationships, leading to positive price changes. For instance, the price of caustic soda rose by 3.6%, and the price of glass manufacturing saw a reduced decline of 0.9% compared to June [6][7] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was influenced by seasonal factors, with prices in the coal mining and washing industry, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showing reduced declines compared to the previous month [7][6] Group 3: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that prices are expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, driven by effective policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, which will stimulate consumption and push up consumer goods prices [8] - The holiday effect is anticipated to stabilize or increase service prices, while the downward pressure from tailing factors on both CPI and PPI is expected to diminish [8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the seasonal level [3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with service prices up 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up 0.5% [3] - Seasonal factors, such as the summer travel peak, contributed to significant price increases in air tickets (17.9%), tourism (9.1%), hotel accommodation (6.9%), and vehicle rentals (4.4%) [3] Group 2: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024 [4] - Jewelry prices, particularly gold and platinum, saw substantial increases of 37.1% and 27.3% respectively, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the CPI [4] - Food prices experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year, which negatively impacted the overall CPI [4] Group 3: PPI Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, marking the first month of narrowing decline since March [5] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in international trade contributed to price decreases in certain industries, while domestic market competition improved, leading to reduced price declines in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [5][6] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with some industries experiencing price recoveries due to macroeconomic policies and demand improvements [6]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline, driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with significant contributions from gold and platinum jewelry prices [1][3] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year, impacting the overall CPI [2] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain sectors [2][3] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with some industries experiencing price recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships and ongoing macroeconomic policies [3][4] - Specific industries such as traditional manufacturing and emerging sectors showed price increases, with notable rises in the prices of caustic soda and aircraft manufacturing [3][4]