Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices [1][2] - In November, food prices shifted from a year-on-year decline of 2.9% to an increase of 0.2%, contributing positively to the CPI by 0.04 percentage points [1] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant increase of 14.5% year-on-year after nine consecutive months of decline, while fresh fruit prices rose by 0.7% [1] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [1] - Service prices and industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 0.7% and 2.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1] - The expansion of domestic demand policies has positively impacted prices, with household appliances and clothing prices increasing by 4.9% and 2.0% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - On a month-on-month basis, the CPI decreased by 0.1% in November, primarily due to seasonal declines in service prices [2] - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that the year-on-year increase in CPI reflects a continuous recovery in consumer spending [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, it is anticipated that with the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies and improvements in market competition, prices may experience a moderate recovery [2]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, reversing from a flat reading in the previous month, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [5][6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion in price increases for four consecutive months, driven by rising industrial consumer goods and service prices [5][6] Economic Indicators - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month, compared to a 0.4% increase in July, with food prices rising by 0.5% and non-food prices declining by 0.1% [3][6] - Food prices saw a year-on-year decline of 4.3% in August, with significant drops in pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, each exceeding 10% [5][6] Industrial and Service Prices - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 1.5% year-on-year in August, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with home appliances and entertainment goods contributing to this rise [6] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year in August, reflecting a steady upward trend, influenced by increased demand for high-quality social services and summer travel [6] Policy and Market Outlook - The government aims to continue expanding domestic demand and implementing consumption-boosting initiatives, while also addressing capacity management in key industries to promote reasonable price recovery [6]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year and a continuous decline in food prices [1][10] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) ended an eight-month downward trend, remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to July [4][5] Group 2: Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [3][11] - Industrial prices showed positive changes, with certain sectors like coal processing and black metal smelting experiencing a narrowing of year-on-year price declines, contributing to the overall stabilization of PPI [7][8] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improvements in the supply-demand relationship, positively affecting industrial product prices and reducing disorderly competition in various sectors [3][9] - The implementation of more proactive macro policies is expected to support a gradual recovery in prices, with forecasts indicating a potential narrowing of PPI year-on-year declines in the coming months [8][12]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) in August remained stable month-on-month but decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][3] Group 1: CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases in August [1][2] - The year-on-year drop in food prices, particularly for pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs, has intensified, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline [2][3] - The core CPI's growth indicates a stable consumer market, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [3] Group 2: Food Price Dynamics - In August, food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month but were below seasonal expectations, with significant year-on-year declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%) [2][3] - The overall food price index saw a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, with the downward pressure on CPI increasing compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that CPI may remain weak until the end of the year, influenced by low base effects and policies aimed at supporting consumer prices [4] - The stability in food prices and the potential for a recovery in CPI readings are expected as the impact of "anti-involution" policies on consumer goods prices becomes more pronounced [4]

Core Insights - In August, Nanjing's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 5.1% and non-food prices increasing by 0.3% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, marking an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.3%, driven by a 1.7% rise in food prices [3] Year-on-Year Price Changes - Eight categories of prices showed a mixed trend with five categories increasing and three decreasing [2] - Categories that saw price increases include clothing (1.7%), household goods and services (2.6%), education and culture (0.8%), healthcare (2.0%), and other goods and services (10.0%) [2] - Categories with price declines include food and tobacco (3.0%), housing (0.6%), and transportation and communication (3.1%) [2] Month-on-Month Price Changes - Month-on-month, five categories increased while three decreased [3] - Notable increases were seen in food and tobacco (1.2%), healthcare (1.7%), and education and culture (0.4%) [3] - Decreases were observed in clothing (0.8%), housing (0.3%), and household goods and services (0.5%) [3] Food Price Dynamics - Food prices year-on-year decreased by 5.1%, significantly impacting the overall price level by approximately 0.91 percentage points [2] - Specific food items such as fresh vegetables, pork, and shrimp saw declines of 17.4%, 15.7%, and 5.9% respectively, while freshwater fish prices increased by 7.0% [2] - Month-on-month, food prices rose by 1.7%, contributing about 0.28 percentage points to the overall price level [3] Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food prices shifted from a 0.1% decline to a 0.3% increase year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the overall price level [2] - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.6%, while service prices remained stable [2] - Month-on-month, industrial consumer goods prices decreased by 0.3%, with notable declines in gasoline and diesel prices [3]

Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1% [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with significant price hikes in transportation-related services due to the summer travel season [1][2] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a steady upward trend [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies and gradual release of consumption potential, alongside the establishment of a unified domestic market [3] - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with household appliances seeing a 2.8% increase, reflecting a positive impact on CPI [3] - Service prices also experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with notable rises in household and educational services, contributing to the overall CPI growth [3][4] Group 3 - Overall, the CPI in July remained stable, with positive changes continuing to emerge, although the market still faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand [4] - Future policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and furthering the construction of a unified national market are expected to continue yielding positive effects on price levels [4]

Group 1 - In July, the national consumer price index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, while it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [3] - Service prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI's month-on-month increase, accounting for over 60% of the total CPI rise [6] Group 2 - The surge in travel-related consumption during the summer vacation season led to significant price increases in various sectors, with airfares, tourism, hotel accommodations, and vehicle rental fees rising by 17.9%, 9.1%, 6.9%, and 4.4% respectively [9] - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI's month-on-month increase [13] - The CPI remained flat year-on-year due to lower food prices, with fresh vegetable prices declining by 7.6% year-on-year, a drop that expanded by 7.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, while fresh fruit prices increased by 2.8%, with the growth rate decreasing by 3.3 percentage points [15]

Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal factors. The PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and industrial producer prices remained sluggish. China's overall economic activity expectations are in a moderate state, and the inflation level may continue to hover at a low level for some time [5][15]. Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous value of a 0.1% increase. From January to July, the average CPI decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year. Food prices in July decreased 1.6% year - on - year, pulling down the CPI by about 0.29 percentage points. Non - food prices rose 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, consumer goods prices decreased 0.4% year - on - year, and service prices rose 0.5% year - on - year [2][6]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices. Food prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, non - food prices rose 0.5% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, and service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.26 percentage points. Core CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, mostly due to seasonal factors [3][7]. - **Eight - Category CPI**: In July, food and tobacco prices decreased 0.1% month - on - month, housing prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, medical care prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, clothing prices decreased 0.3% month - on - month, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.8% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 0.9% month - on - month [8]. - **Future Outlook**: As of August 10, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was 113.96, lower than 126.50 in the same period last year. Agricultural product prices in July hovered at a low level and slightly increased in early August, but the increase rate was much lower than that of the same period last year. Agricultural product prices are unlikely to drive up the CPI in August [3][10]. PPI Situation - **Year - on - Year Data**: In July, the national PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, against a market expectation of a 3.4% decline. From January to July, the average PPI decreased 2.9% compared with the same period last year. Production material prices decreased 4.3% year - on - year, and living material prices decreased 1.6% year - on - year [3][11]. - **Month - on - Month Data**: In July, PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Production material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month, and living material prices decreased 0.2% month - on - month. Some industries with large month - on - month price declines included coal mining and washing, non - metallic mineral products, and ferrous metal ore mining. Industries with relatively large month - on - month price increases included oil and gas extraction, oil, coal and other fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling [4][13]. - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: The price of the automobile manufacturing industry decreased 0.3% month - on - month, indicating continuous price competition pressure in the automobile industry [4][13]. PMI Situation - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The new order index was 49.4%, back in the contraction range. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. The service business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The new order index was 46.3%, and the business activity expectation index was 56.6% [5][15].

Core Viewpoint - In July, the "anti-involution" policy led to a narrowing of the PPI month-on-month decline to -0.2%, while the CPI for industrial consumer goods improved, contributing to a third consecutive month of core CPI year-on-year recovery. However, the impact of supply-side capacity management on prices is more moderate compared to 2016, with PPI year-on-year decline remaining at a two-year low of -3.6% and CPI year-on-year turning flat [2][19]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0% in July, primarily dragged down by food items, while core CPI rose to 0.8% [4]. - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing a marginal drag of 0.30 percentage points to the overall CPI [8]. - Seasonal supply of fresh vegetables and fruits was abundant, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in their prices, with fresh vegetables down 7.6% and fresh fruits up 2.8% [8][11]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% to -0.2% in July, but the year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, indicating limited effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures on price uplift [19]. - Key industries such as coal, steel, and cement have implemented capacity management measures, which have led to a reduction in the month-on-month price declines for these sectors [19]. - International factors continue to pressure export-related prices, while domestic oil and non-ferrous metal prices have seen increases due to external input factors [20]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures have led to a faster increase in futures prices compared to spot prices, indicating market expectations are ahead of actual supply-side adjustments [24]. - Looking ahead, the diminishing drag from tailing factors may lead to improvements in PPI year-on-year in August and CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter, but sustained inflation recovery will require stronger policy support and a focus on expanding domestic demand [24]. - The current supply-side price uplift is more challenging and softer compared to 2016, with a broader range of industries involved, including upstream raw materials and downstream sectors [24].