2Q25 业绩基本符合市场预期 因行业需求承压，我们下调2025/26 年收入5.4/5.4%至885.45/927.17 亿元，下调归母净利润9.9/9.0%至 301.26/321.33 亿元，因行业估值中枢上移，维持目标价174 元，对应25/26 年22.4/21.0X 市盈率，当前 股价对应16.3/15.3X 市盈率，较目标价有37.4%上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。 风险 宏观经济恢复不及预期，普五批价提升不及预期。 公司公布2Q25 业绩：1H25 收入约527.71 亿元，同比4.19%；归母净利润约194.92 亿元，同比2.28%。 2Q25 收入158.31 亿元，同比0.10%；归母净利润46.32 亿元，同比约-7.58％。业绩符合市场预期。 发展趋势 公司上半年直营渠道及低度产品表现较好，2Q25 销售收现表现突出。分产品看：1H25 五粮液产品营收 409.98 亿元，同比+4.57%，其中量/价分别同比+12.75%/-7.25%，主要系普五直营渠道贡献增量，经销 渠道维持减量，同时1618+低度相对增速亦快于平均，对应1H25 五粮液产品毛利率同比-0.25ppt；系列 酒1 ...

H1 五粮液产品毛利率微降0.24pct，费用增加扰动Q2 归母净利率1）毛利率较稳健，五粮液产品毛利率 微降0.24pct。25H1，公司毛利率为76.83%，同比-0.53pct，其中五粮液、其他酒产品毛利率分别为 86.45%、60.74%，同比-0.24、-1.49pct。 2）销售、财务费用有所增加，影响Q2 归母净利率。25H1，公司归母净利率36.94%，同比-0.69pct，主 要受毛利率下降等影响；25Q2 公司归母净利率29.26%，同比-2.43pct，主要由于销售、财务费用有所增 加。 事件 公司公告2025 年中报。2025 年上半年，公司实现总收入527.71 亿元（+4.19%），归母净利194.92 亿元 （+2.28%），扣非归母净利194.80 亿元（+2.86%）。2025Q2，公司实现总收入158.31 亿元 （+0.10%），归母净利46.32 亿元（-7.58%），扣非归母净利46.18 亿元（-5.75%）。 持续聚焦渠道建设深耕细作，H1 销量增长稳健1）H1 销量增长稳健。25H1，公司五粮液产品、其他酒 产品收入分别为409.98、81.22 亿元，同比+4 ...

业绩保持正向增长 上半年营收达527.71亿元 白酒产业是价值驱动的长周期产业。虽然目前行业进入"存缩量"波动时代，但行业持续向优势品牌、优 势企业、优势产区集中的趋势没有改变。这从五粮液发布的2025年半年报数据中清晰可见，行业调整期 对龙头企业而言是挑战与机遇并存，机遇大于挑战。 在经济周期、消费周期、产业周期叠加共振下，白酒行业进入深度调整期，而作为行业龙头，宜宾五粮 液股份有限公司（以下简称"五粮液"）通过多措并举，交出一份稳健的半年业绩答卷。 8月27日晚间，五粮液发布2025年半年度报告。报告期内，五粮液实现营收527.71亿元，同比增长 4.19%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为194.92亿元，同比增长2.28%。 面对严峻复杂的市场环境，五粮液业绩稳健增长体现出公司较强的品牌优势和发展韧性。中国酒文化品 牌研究院智库专家蔡学飞对《证券日报》记者表示，面对白酒行业深度调整的"深水区"，五粮液坚持稳 中求进，坚持品质与文化属性不变，深耕稳固传统市场，积极开拓新增量，凸显其穿越周期的定力与长 期信心。 夯实发展根基 上半年，五粮液一方面推进营销体制机制改革，组建五粮液酒类销售公司，实施市场片区负 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the importance of high-end international platforms for companies to showcase their strengths and seek cooperation in the context of a changing global economic landscape [1] Group 1: Event Participation - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo attracted 651 enterprises and institutions from 75 countries and regions, with Wuliangye being the only designated liquor [3] - Wuliangye showcased its core products, including the Eighth Generation Wuliangye and various creative cocktails, enhancing its brand influence in the international business community [3] Group 2: Corporate Strategy - Wuliangye's management emphasizes the need for long-termism and innovation to navigate external uncertainties while maintaining its cultural roots and emotional attributes [5][6] - The company has been recognized as a model for ESG practices in the liquor industry, reflecting its commitment to high-quality development and effective governance [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Wuliangye plans to continue leveraging high-end international platforms to deepen global exchanges and cooperation, aiming to enhance its brand influence and contribute to the internationalization of Chinese liquor [8]

Group 1 - Wuliangye is actively pursuing internationalization, participating in high-profile global events to enhance cultural exchange and cooperation [1][2] - The company showcased its products at the China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo, highlighting its core offerings and attracting significant attention [1] - Wuliangye's participation in the Boao Forum for Asia emphasizes its commitment to long-term development and quality growth amidst external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - The company is focusing on openness, inclusivity, and cultural exchange as key development themes, aiming to promote Chinese traditional culture globally [3] - Wuliangye plans to achieve over 20% growth in international market sales by 2024, enhancing its brand competitiveness [3] - The brand has been rated AAA+ in the Brand Finance 2025 Global Spirits Brand 50 list, marking the highest rating and demonstrating consistent growth in brand strength over the past decade [3]

Group 1 - Yang Weiguo has been removed from his positions as Chairman of Yanghe Group and other related companies, raising concerns about management stability and strategic continuity in the industry [1] - Yanghe Co. announced on June 11 that Yang Weiguo resigned from the board and strategic committee due to work adjustments, effective until the end of the current board term [1] Group 2 - Wuliangye reported good growth in banquet market size and opening rates in the first half of the year, indicating a positive market performance [2] - The company is adapting its market strategy for its products, including direct distribution to 20 key cities to reduce logistics costs and enhance control over the terminal network [2] - Wuliangye is focusing on high-quality development and increasing market investment through membership systems and marketing activities to cultivate consumer engagement [2] Group 3 - *ST Yanshi has received a civil lawsuit regarding a service contract dispute, with the plaintiff seeking 25.75 million yuan [3] - The company has stated that it cannot assess the potential impact of the lawsuit on current or future profits as the case has not yet been formally heard [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the participation of Wuliangye at the 20th China Western International Expo, showcasing its cross-industry integration and innovation in the liquor industry, emphasizing its development strategy of "strengthening liquor, optimizing non-liquor, and expanding platforms" [1][3][10]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 20th China Western International Expo was held in Chengdu from May 25 to 29, focusing on "deepening reform to increase momentum and expanding openness to promote development" [1]. - The expo serves as a significant platform for open cooperation in the western region, having been established in 2000 and successfully hosting 19 previous events [3]. Group 2: Wuliangye's Strategic Development - Wuliangye has evolved into a large state-owned enterprise group, with its core business in liquor and expansions into green packaging, machinery manufacturing, smart logistics, financial investment, and health industries [3][10]. - The company aims to create a win-win development model that integrates ecological, economic, and social aspects through its innovative practices [4][10]. Group 3: Exhibition Highlights - Wuliangye's exhibition showcased the entire industry chain from seed planting to liquor production, emphasizing its commitment to quality and innovation [6][9]. - The exhibition featured core products and demonstrated the traditional brewing techniques that have been passed down for over 700 years [9][10]. Group 4: Technological Innovation - Wuliangye has established multiple national and provincial innovation platforms, focusing on various aspects of the liquor production process, and has received numerous awards for technological advancements [9][11]. - The company is committed to continuous technological investment, enhancing its core liquor business and expanding its product and service range [11][12]. Group 5: Collaborative Partnerships - Wuliangye collaborates with various companies, such as Universal Group and Lichai Group, to enhance packaging and logistics, thereby improving the overall quality and efficiency of its operations [12][15][18]. - The logistics partner, Anji Logistics Group, has been instrumental in providing customized solutions for efficient and green management of the liquor supply chain [18].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye held an online performance briefing for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, focusing on dividend distribution, stock buyback, product competition, and sales performance, as well as revenue targets and strategic layout for the year [4][5][17]. Dividend and Share Buyback - Wuliangye plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.69 yuan per 10 shares in 2024, totaling 12.3 billion yuan, with a total dividend amount reaching 22.3 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend rate of 70%, the highest since its listing [5][17]. - The company has distributed dividends 24 times, with a total amount of 116.4 billion yuan, which is 31 times the funds raised since its listing [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.922 billion yuan, a decline of 6.17% year-on-year, marking the first drop since 2013, attributed to increased market expenses and incentives for distributors and consumers [8][10]. - For Q1 2025, Wuliangye reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.849 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2970.31% year-on-year, and contract liabilities reached 10.17 billion yuan, up 101.42% [10][17]. Product Competition and Sales - Wuliangye's eighth-generation product saw a 21% year-on-year increase in sales on e-commerce platforms like JD and Tmall, establishing a price stability advantage in the 1,000 yuan price range [4][11][13]. - The company has implemented a controlled pricing strategy for its eighth-generation product, resulting in sustained market price increases and low social inventory [13][14]. Strategic Outlook - Wuliangye aims to achieve its 100 billion yuan target for the 14th Five-Year Plan by adapting to market changes and focusing on sustainable growth [15][16]. - The company plans to expand its market share among younger consumers by introducing products with lower alcohol content and modern packaging [18]. - Wuliangye is also focusing on developing mid-tier products and enhancing its brand matrix to capture market demand effectively [19].

Group 1 - The core theme of the 2025 Osaka World Expo is "Envisioning a Revitalized Future Society," with 158 countries and regions participating, and Wuliangye being the first Chinese liquor brand to officially appear in the China Pavilion [2][3] - Wuliangye aims to showcase Chinese traditional culture and its unique brewing techniques through various promotional activities, including exhibitions and collaborations with Michelin-starred restaurants [4][5] - The company emphasizes its commitment to green development and ecological sustainability, aligning with the Expo's theme of building a community of life between humans and nature [8][9] Group 2 - Wuliangye has a historical connection with world expos, having participated in several significant events over the past century, including the Panama International Exposition in 1915 and the Shanghai Expo in 2010 [3][4] - The company has introduced innovative products and experiences at the Osaka Expo, such as the first overseas authorized experience restaurant and limited-time offerings like cocktails and white liquor coffee [7][12] - Wuliangye's strategic focus includes creating a zero-carbon enterprise and enhancing its circular economy, with plans to invest 2.586 billion yuan in 2025 for key projects [12][13] Group 3 - The company is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in Japan, where it has established various sales channels and marketing strategies to enhance brand recognition [14][16] - Wuliangye's "He Mei Global Tour" initiative has been launched to promote Chinese liquor culture globally, with previous events held in multiple countries [13][16] - The brand's value continues to rise, as evidenced by its ranking in the "World's 500 Most Valuable Brands" list, where it improved its position to 219th, marking an 8-place increase [17]

Group 1 - Five Star Liquor has become the first Chinese liquor brand to officially appear at the 2025 Osaka World Expo, marking its entry into a high-profile international platform [1] - The company launched its "Harmony Global Tour" from the Osaka Expo, which includes the opening of its first overseas authorized experience restaurant in Tokyo and a series of cultural exchange activities [1][8] - The brand emphasizes its commitment to showcasing Chinese culture and wisdom through its participation in the Expo, aligning with the Expo's theme of "Envisioning a Lively Future Society" [3][5] Group 2 - The Osaka Expo features 158 countries and regions, with the China Pavilion focusing on themes of "Harmony between Man and Nature" and "Sustainable Development" [3] - Five Star Liquor's traditional brewing technique, known as the "1366" process, reflects a philosophy of ecological wisdom and balance with nature, resonating with the Expo's themes [5] - The company aims to deepen its international presence and promote Chinese liquor culture through various promotional activities during the Expo [7][17] Group 3 - The company has introduced a limited-time experience store at the Expo, featuring innovative cross-border products like cocktails and white liquor coffee, targeting younger consumers [12] - Five Star Liquor's international strategy includes a focus on the Japanese market, where there is a growing demand for high-quality Chinese liquor [10][12] - The brand's participation in the Expo is part of a broader strategy to enhance its cultural outreach and engage in meaningful dialogues with global consumers [8][17] Group 4 - The company supports cultural initiatives such as the "Panda Partners Global Tour" to promote Chinese culture and the unique qualities of its products [15] - Five Star Liquor aims to create a global "community of shared prosperity" through its "Harmony Global Tour," showcasing the richness of Chinese brewing culture [13][17] - The brand's internationalization efforts are driven by a dual strategy of "cultural export and local operation," enhancing its global footprint [17]