| 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | shenvb@sywggh. con. cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | 11.0 | | | 1 | | | 1月 | | 5月 9月 1月 9 H | 5月 | | | 前1日收盘价 | | 1420.0 1127.0 1222.0 1856. 0 | 1694. 0 | 1770.0 | | 前2日收盘价 | | 1392. 5 1094.0 1194. 5 1818.0 | 1652. 0 | 1731.0 | | 煮跌 | EF | 27.5 33.0 27.5 38. 0 | 42.0 | 39. 0 | | 煮跌幅 | સ્ત | 1.97% 3.02% 2. 30% 2. 09% | 2. 54% | 2. 25% | | 成交堂 | TD | 5280 1151632 99633 65 | 25286 | 1 482 | | 符仓堂 | 功 | 13462 506242 108527 1211 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 3 月 3 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：3月2日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The coal market is experiencing a potential turnaround due to Indonesia's significant reduction in production quotas, which have dropped by 40% to 70% compared to the same period in 2025, tightening global coal supply [1] - The expectation of price recovery is rising, with four distinct companies in the coal sector: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Huabei Mining, each with unique operational strengths [5][19] Group 2: Company Financial Performance - China Shenhua has a remarkable net profit margin of 22.01%, indicating strong profitability, but its total asset turnover is low at 0.325 times, reflecting a conservative operational style [9][15] - Shaanxi Coal boasts the highest total asset turnover at 0.506 times and a net profit margin of 16.88%, showcasing efficient asset utilization and strong profitability [10][15] - Pingmei Shenma, despite having the highest financial leverage at 2.715 times, struggles with a low net profit margin of 1.99% and the lowest total asset turnover at 0.185 times, indicating operational inefficiencies [6][16] - Huabei Mining has a moderate return on equity (ROE) of approximately 1.76%, with a net profit margin of 2.50% and total asset turnover of 0.361 times, reflecting a balanced but unremarkable performance [12][16] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Implications - The reduction in Indonesian coal production is expected to impact international coal prices, potentially increasing costs for countries reliant on imported coal, including China [19] - China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, primarily focused on thermal coal, will be more directly affected by fluctuations in the international thermal coal market, while Pingmei Shenma's coking coal prices are closely tied to the steel industry's demand [19] - Internal restructuring efforts, such as Pingmei Shenma's strategic reorganization with Henan Energy Group, may enhance resource allocation and market synergy, presenting long-term growth potential [20]

| | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击莽 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | 11.0 18 | | | | | | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9 H | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1393. 5 | 1147.0 | 1222.5 | 1863. 5 | 1703.5 | 1774.0 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1390. 5 | 1138.5 | 1217.5 | 1860. 0 | 1698.5 | 1769.0 | | Eli | 浅跌 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | | स्त | 煮跌幅 | 0. 22% | 0. 75% | 0. 41% | 0. 19% | 0. 29% | 0. 28% | | 10 | 成交堂 | 1668 | 798141 | 3 ...

Report Title - "Macro Favorable but Demand Constrained, Steel Prices Fluctuate - Weekly Report 20260126" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased due to the weakening of terminal demand. The main inventory - accumulating variety was rebar, with increased production and decreased demand, showing off - season pressure. Although the inventory increased, the absolute inventory was still low. Hot - rolled coil production and demand both declined, and the inventory decline slowed down. Steel exports showed certain resilience. In the short term, the contradiction of steel inventory accumulation was limited, and the raw material end did not show significant negative feedback pressure. Steel prices were supported but lacked strong driving force and would fluctuate [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Supported by macro - favorable factors, steel prices first fell and then rose. The weekly price slightly declined, and the basis narrowed. The inventory of rebar increased, and the decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Terminal demand was limited [9]. - Specific price and inventory data: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton with a weekly change, and the futures warehouse receipt of rebar decreased by 43193. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes in factory and social inventories [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Production - Rebar weekly output was 199.55 tons (up 4.86% week - on - week and 14.60% year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.41 tons (down 0.96% week - on - week and 5.34% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both slightly declined [15][16][19]. Profit - Rebar profit slightly decreased to +61 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton week - on - week and 53 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit slightly recovered to +1 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year) [24][26]. Demand - The apparent consumption of rebar was 185.52 tons (down 2.53% week - on - week and up 58.69% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 309.96 tons (down 1.34% week - on - week and up 2.44% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coil declined [27][31]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased, with both factory and social inventories rising. The total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (up 3.20 week - on - week and down 6.44% year - on - year). The decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed, with a slight increase in factory inventory and a decrease in social inventory. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 357.78 tons (down 1.26% week - on - week and up 6.32% year - on - year) [32][36][37]. Downstream - In the real - estate sector, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.80% week - on - week and 32.32% year - on - year, and the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 49% week - on - week and 69% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in December 2025, automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [41][43][44]. 03 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly widened, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated narrowly. The coil - to - rebar spread widened, and the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal slightly widened [48][53]

| | 20260127申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | 11-0 I | | | | | | | | | 9月 1月 9 H | 1月 | 5月 | | | 5月 | | | | 前1日收盘价 1237.5 1887.0 1788. 5 | 1403.0 | 1159.5 | | | 1719.0 | | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1402. 5 | 1157. 0 | 1235.5 | 1890. 0 | 1722. 0 | 1791.5 | | EF | 落蛋 | 0. 5 | 2.5 | 2. 0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | | सह | 张跌幅 | 0. 04% | 0. 22% | 0.16% | -0. 16% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" policy hype in the black sector has led to general price increases. For the steel market, there are differences in the demand recovery between rebar and hot - rolled coils, with the former being slower and the latter faster. For the iron ore market, the supply is at a high level, and the port inventory shows signs of stabilization. Technical breakthroughs need further observation [2][5]. - In the steel market, the policy aims to rectify low - price and disorderly competition, promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and guide enterprises to improve product quality [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Policy Impact**: The publication of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article in Qiushi magazine triggers market speculation about the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, with a consistent policy tone compared to the article on July 1 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease, apparent demand has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and social inventory has increased for nine consecutive weeks. The total production of five major steel products has decreased by 3.4 million tons week - on - week, factory inventory has decreased by 3.5 million tons, social inventory has increased by 17.4 million tons, and total inventory has increased by 13.9 million tons. Apparent demand has increased by 15.5 million tons week - on - week, with the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increasing by 20.8 million tons. Currently, the demand for rebar recovers slowly, while that for hot - rolled coils recovers quickly [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Rebar has broken through the pressure of the upper 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, and hot - rolled coils have broken through the pressure of the middle Bollinger Band, showing a short - term strong rebound [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing up, and treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: The resurgence of "anti - involution" speculation has led to a general rise in the black sector, and iron ore has followed suit. The profitability of sample steel mills has recently declined, mainly due to the sharp increase in coke spot prices and the decline in steel prices. The iron ore supply is at a high level globally, and port inventory shows signs of stabilization, but there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the 01 contract forms an upward breakthrough, it enters an oscillation state. Whether it is a real breakthrough remains to be seen [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. If the upward breakthrough is proven to be a false one, try to enter the market to short. If an upward effective breakthrough is formed, consider short - term and light - position long - buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - **Production Data**: In August, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; and steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [7]. - **Tariff Policy**: The United States has opened a "tariff inclusion window" for steel and aluminum under Section 232, planning to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives [8]. - **Coal Mine Shutdown**: Two coal mines in Shanxi have shut down, with uncertain复产 times. One in Lvliang Zhongyang has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons, and the other in Linfen Guxian has a production capacity of 0.9 million tons [8]. - **Iron Ore Shipment**: From September 8th to September 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.169 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.778 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.482 million tons [8]. - **Coke Price Adjustment**: On September 15th, steel mills in the Hebei market lowered the coke purchase price by 50/55 yuan per ton [9]. - **Steel Inventory**: In early September 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.82 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 million tons, or 5.6% [10].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper inventory by 19,264 tons and aluminum inventory by 10,194 tons, while zinc and lead inventories increased by 769 tons and 638 tons respectively, and nickel and tin inventories decreased by 586 tons and 10 tons respectively [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the delivery quality standards for live pig futures, modifying the average weight and individual weight range of the delivery standard, as well as the alternative delivery products and premiums [1] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association held a meeting with key nitrogen fertilizer export enterprises to discuss recent export situations and issues, affirming the association's efforts and encouraging companies to work together on supply stability and self-regulated exports [1] - OPEC+ is considering extending its large-scale production increase plan in the upcoming meeting, with Saudi Arabia leading efforts to regain market share, as eight major OPEC+ member countries have increased production by 411,000 barrels per day over the past three months [1] Group 2 - Steel and iron e-commerce data shows that the total urban inventory is 7.1552 million tons, an increase of 17,700 tons (+0.25%) from last week, with construction steel inventory at 3.7031 million tons, up by 10,100 tons (+0.27%), and hot-rolled coil inventory at 1.7102 million tons, increasing by 19,900 tons (+1.18%) [2] - In Shanxi Province, safety inspections have tightened, leading to the suspension of a coal mine due to safety hazards, affecting a capacity of 900,000 tons, with a shutdown period of 10-15 days; a total of three coal mines have been suspended, impacting daily raw coal output by approximately 9,000 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weak market of coke and coking coal futures continues, and there may be new lows in the next two weeks. However, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a turning point of bottoming out and rebounding in about two weeks under the changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - On May 23, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures continued to decline, hitting new lows for September contracts since June 2017 and September 2016 respectively. The J2509 contract closed at 1383 yuan/ton, down 1.81%, with a trading volume of 25,439 lots and a position of 55,648 lots. The JM2509 contract closed at 801.5 yuan/ton, down 4.01%, with a trading volume of 491,253 lots, a position of 521,877 lots, and an increase of 27,491 lots in position [5]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts continued to decline. The green column of the daily - line MACD of the coke 2509 contract turned to expand, while that of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to expand [8]. 3.2. Market Outlook - **Coke**: In the past five weeks, the coke output of independent coking plants has been hovering near the highest level since early August last year, while the coke output of steel mills has declined slightly compared with late April. The coke inventory at ports has significantly decreased in the past five weeks, but the inventory removal speed of steel mills and coking plants is slow, adding new downward pressure on coke prices. The profit per ton of coke turned from profit to loss after two consecutive weeks of profit, mainly because the second - round price increase of coke spot prices did not appear after the first - round increase in mid - April, which instead created conditions for steel mills to propose a price cut again, which was implemented on May 16 [10]. - **Coking Coal**: From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained at a high level, and the overall loose pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants has significantly increased, and the clean coal inventory has risen to a relatively high level again. The inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased in the past five weeks, and the port inventory has also significantly returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the inventory of steel mills has increased steadily. When steel mills still have relatively sufficient inventory, if coking plants also adopt a de - stocking strategy, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise [10]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote urban renewal work and will issue the central budget investment plan for urban renewal in 2025 by the end of June. The US Treasury bond auction interest rate has risen again, leading to a triple - kill of the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, and the risk appetite of the international financial market has declined again [10]. 3.3. Industry News - From January to April 2025, China's total foreign direct investment was 57.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. Among them, non - financial foreign direct investment was 51.04 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Non - financial direct investment in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative was 12.78 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. From January to April, the turnover of China's foreign contracted projects was 47.11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the newly signed contract value was 76.59 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. Among them, the turnover of Chinese enterprises' contracted projects in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative was 37.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, and the newly signed contract value was 64.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [12]. - On May 23, the People's Bank of China carried out 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a fixed quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method for a term of one year [12]. - According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - May, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.33 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons from the previous month, a decline of 2.0%, and the decline in inventory continued to narrow; an increase of 1.74 million tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 26.4%; and a decrease of 2.8 million tons from the same period last year, a decline of 25.2% [12]. - From January to April, the total electricity consumption in the operating area of China Southern Power Grid was 519.18 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the national average. By industry, the electricity consumption of the primary, secondary, tertiary industries, and residential living increased by 7.2%, 3.2%, 5.8%, and 3.1% year - on - year respectively. In April, affected by low temperatures and tariff shocks, the growth of electricity demand in the operating area of China Southern Power Grid slowed down, with a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. Against the background of economic pressure, all regions stepped up efforts to promote industrial development. The electricity consumption of the secondary industry increased by 3.5% year - on - year, and its contribution rate to the growth of total electricity consumption still exceeded 60%, playing a key supporting role in maintaining stable electricity consumption growth. Among them, the electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry increased by 4.8% year - on - year in April, which indirectly confirmed that China's economy has a stable foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential [12][13]. - On May 23, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous day, a decrease of 3.95% from the previous week, and an increase of 5.49% from the same period last month [13]. - As of May 18, on the 25th anniversary of the opening of the Shuohuang Railway, it had completed 504.6982 million tons of coal transportation and 16.2674 million tons of non - coal transportation, with a cumulative freight volume of over 5.21 billion tons, achieving 9,131 consecutive days of safe production and operation [13]. - According to the latest data released by the World Steel Association, in April 2025, the crude steel output of 69 countries included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 155.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The top ten crude steel - producing countries in the world in April included China, India, Japan, the United States, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, Germany, Brazil, and Iran. In April, China's crude steel output was 86 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; India's was 12.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; Japan's was 6.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%; the US's was 6.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Meanwhile, Russia's was 5.8 million tons (estimated), a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%; South Korea's was 5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%; Turkey's was 3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. Germany's was 3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%; Brazil's was 2.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; Iran's was 3.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to April, the cumulative global crude steel output was 624 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, the crude steel output of China, India, Japan, the United States, and Russia was 345 million tons, 53.2 million tons, 27 million tons, 26.4 million tons, and 23.4 million tons respectively, with year - on - year changes of 0.4%, 6.9%, - 5.3%, 0.0%, and - 4.5% respectively. Meanwhile, the crude steel output of South Korea, Turkey, Germany, Brazil, and Iran was 20.5 million tons, 12.3 million tons, 11.4 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.6 million tons respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 3.4%, - 1.0%, - 11.9%, - 0.3%, and - 8.0% respectively [13]. - On May 22, Temuujin, the Executive General Manager of the Mongolian Coal Association, delivered a keynote speech on the current situation and development trend of the Mongolian coal industry at the "2025 (First) International Coking Coal Conference". Currently, more than 50 out of over 70 coal - mining enterprises with coal - mining licenses in Mongolia are engaged in mining operations [13]. - It is reported that OPEC+ is discussing whether to significantly increase production again at the meeting on June 1. The reported options under discussion include an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July, but no final agreement has been reached [13]. - Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on May 22 showed that in the 20th week of 2025 (the week ending May 17), the estimated coal production in the US increased again week - on - week, reaching a three - week high. That week, the estimated coal production in the US was 10.6316 million short tons (9.6448 million tons), an increase of 4.86% from the previous week and 25.76% from the same period last year [13][14]. - Preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistical Office showed that in March 2025, Germany's hard - coal imports were 2.0883 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.80% and a month - on - month increase of 6.09%. The cumulative imports from January to March were 6.4471 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12% [14]. 3.4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data graphs, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the spot aggregated price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants, the coke production and capacity utilization rate of steel mills, the national daily average pig iron production, and the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants [15][16][17].