1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal supply pressure remains due to the slowdown in coking coal production growth and high Mongolian coal customs clearance. The increase in hot metal production provides incremental demand for coking coal and coke, and the high coking coal auction transaction rate reflects downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The coal price is expected to be supported by increased demand and the impact of geopolitical conflicts. Future focus should be on hot metal production changes, mine operation rhythms, and geopolitical developments [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Trading Volume Information - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for different contract months of coking coal and coke are 1543.5, 1214.0, 1352.5, 1923.0, 1753.5, and 1842.0 respectively. The price changes range from -6.5 to 2.5, with daily price change rates from -0.33% to 0.14% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes for different contract months are 5125, 756767, 215978, 13198, and 2989 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests for different contract months are 21604, 399980, 204487, 2236, 29837, and 13772 respectively. The changes in open interest range from -1113 to 6417 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads between different contract months and their changes are provided, such as the 1 - 5 month spread with a current value of 240 and a change of 306 [2] Spot Price Information - The current spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, including Mongolian No. 5 primary coking coal, low - sulfur primary coking coal, etc., are 1600, 1308, 1529, 1800, 1280, and 1490 respectively. The change in the spot price of the Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke is -10 [2] Policy Information - Hangzhou has optimized its housing provident fund usage policy. The maximum housing provident fund loan amount has been increased from 1.3 million yuan to 1.8 million yuan, and the calculation multiple of the individual loanable amount has been adjusted from 15 times to 20 times. The loan amount for multi - child families can be increased by 50% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. Rebar shows a structure of decreasing production and increasing demand, with inventory reduction accelerating further. Hot-rolled coil sees both production and demand increase, and the decline in total inventory slows down slightly, with factory and social inventories decreasing. Currently, the terminal demand for steel is slowly releasing, and the fundamentals are seasonally improving. Traders are actively selling, and the market sentiment is cautious. Low-price transactions are acceptable, while high-price demand is somewhat suppressed. Based on the current cost support, the downside space for steel prices is limited, and they will maintain a range-bound operation. However, attention should be paid to the change in market risk aversion sentiment approaching the Tomb-Sweeping Festival holiday [3] Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Last week, as news of the easing of the geopolitical situation was released, the prices of raw materials were slightly pressured. At the same time, the replenishment momentum of terminal demand slowed down, and the acceptance of high prices was limited, resulting in a slight price correction [7] - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions and contracts showed different changes, and the prices of imported iron ore and some coking coal also changed. The inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil decreased [7] 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Production - Rebar production decreased slightly, with a weekly output of 197.87 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.69% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.00%). The national hot-rolled coil weekly output was 305.61 tons (a week-on-week increase of 1.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%) [10][13] - Both the blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar decreased. The blast furnace weekly output of rebar was 165.21 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.13%), and the electric furnace weekly output was 32.66 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 4.25% and a year-on-year increase of 16.39%) [14][17] Operating Rate - Both the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates increased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% (a week-on-week increase of 1.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.13%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.82% (a week-on-week increase of 2.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.15%) [18][21][23] Profit - The profit of rebar decreased slightly, with a profit of +55 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 62 yuan/ton). The profit of hot-rolled coil increased slightly, with a profit of +16 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 18 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 77 yuan/ton) [24][26] Demand - The demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coil increased. The apparent consumption of rebar was 225.37 tons (a week-on-week increase of 8.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.14%), and the 5-day average of national building materials transactions was 9.45 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.04%). The apparent consumption of hot-rolled coil was 313.63 tons (a week-on-week increase of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.40%) [27][31] Inventory - The inventory of rebar decreased for two consecutive weeks, with the factory and social inventories continuing to decline. The rebar factory inventory was 219.16 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 7.21% and a year-on-year increase of 4.60%), the rebar social inventory was 642.75 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.60% and a year-on-year increase of 5.44%), and the total rebar inventory was 861.91 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.09% and a year-on-year increase of 5.23%) [32][36] - The decline in hot-rolled coil inventory slowed down, with both the social and factory inventories decreasing. The hot-rolled coil factory inventory was 83.85 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.52%), the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 369.42 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.84% and a year-on-year increase of 22.69%), and the total hot-rolled coil inventory was 453.27 tons (a week-on-week decrease of 1.74% and a year-on-year increase of 14.47%) [37][41] Downstream Industries - In the real estate market, the sales of commercial housing improved week-on-week, while the land market transactions decreased week-on-week. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 18.39% week-on-week and decreased by 18.79% year-on-year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 66.04% week-on-week and 62.77% year-on-year [42][44] - In the automotive market, the production and sales of automobiles decreased seasonally in February, with a year-on-year decline. In February 2026, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of automobiles in China were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% respectively [45][47] 03 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar contracted, the basis of hot-rolled coil expanded, and the 5-10 spread of rebar and hot-rolled coil fluctuated within a narrow range. The coil-to-rebar spread fluctuated at a high level, and the 5-9 spread of iron ore contracted [49][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The night trading of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend, and the total open interest remained basically flat compared to the previous period. With the end of environmental protection restrictions, the pig iron output increased significantly last week, and the coke output of coking plants and steel mills also increased slightly. The rigid demand for coking coal and coke improved significantly. As the peak season of terminal demand continues, there is still room for an increase in pig iron output. After a sharp rise in the market, the market has been volatile in recent days. Before the geopolitical conflict eases, coking coal with energy attributes still has a trading logic of substitution effect in the energy and coal chemical fields. Attention should be paid to changes in pig iron output, mine operation rhythm, and the evolution of the geopolitical situation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Closing Price and Changes**: For different contract months (January and September), the closing prices of coking coal and coke on the previous day and two days ago are provided, along with price changes and price change rates. For example, the January contract of coking coal had a previous - day closing price of 1571.5, a change of 3.5, and a change rate of 0.22% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contract months are presented, as well as the changes in open interest. For instance, the trading volume of the January contract of coking coal was 8824, and the open interest was 20377, with an increase of 2433 in open interest [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads between different contract months (January - May, May - September, September - January) and their changes are given. For example, the January - May price spread of coking coal was 240, with an increase of 306 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices and price changes of different types of coking coal and coke in the spot market are provided. For example, the ex - factory price of low - sulfur coking coal was 1240, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the port for self - pick - up was 1600, with a price change of - 10 for the latter [2]. 3.3 Power Industry Data - As of the end of February 2026, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 33.2%, and the installed capacity of wind power was 0.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%. From January to February, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in the country were 466 hours, 39 hours lower than the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The main contracts of coking coal and coke rose slightly in the night session yesterday, and the total open interest of coking coal was basically flat compared with the previous period. Last week, the coking coal production continued to increase, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal also increased significantly, indicating pressure on the supply side of coking coal. Due to the impact of environmental protection restrictions, the hot metal production continued to decline, but with the end of environmental protection restrictions and the promotion of resumption of work and production, it is expected that the hot metal production will significantly rebound in the future. The increase in the listing volume and trading volume of coking coal last week also proves the current rigid demand resilience, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future trend. The future focus should be on the trend of hot metal production, mine operation, and geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price and Trading Volume - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of coking coal futures contracts on different delivery dates changed compared to the previous two days. For example, the 1 - month contract decreased by 6.5 to 1475.5, with a decline of -0.44%; the 5 - month contract decreased by 5.0 to 1176.0, with a decline of -0.42%; the 9 - month contract increased by 1.5 to 1282.0, with an increase of 0.12% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the 5 - month contract was 673152, and the open interest was 391077. The open interest of the 1 - month contract decreased by 49, while that of the 9 - month contract increased by 1386 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread increased by 306 to 240, and the 5 - 9 month spread increased by 2.5 to -79.5 [2] Spot Price - **Coal Types and Prices**: The current prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen (ex - factory price) is 3711, the port pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking coal is 1210, and the prices of other coal types in different regions are also provided, such as the Tangshan first - grade coke price is 1800 [2] - **Price Changes**: The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Taiyuan (railway siding price) increased by 44, while the prices of other coal types remained unchanged [2] Policy Information - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign - funded projects with a planned investment of 13.4 billion US dollars. The projects are mainly concentrated in manufacturing fields such as electronics, chemicals, automobiles, and machinery, and for the first time, logistics projects are included in the list, while continuing to support R & D center projects in fields such as biomedicine [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the supply - side pressure of coking coal is evident due to the increase in production and Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the iron - water output has decreased due to environmental protection restrictions, with the end of environmental protection restrictions and the progress of resuming work and production, the iron - water output is expected to significantly rebound. The increase in the listing and trading volume of coking coal last week also proves the current rigid demand resilience, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future market trend. Key factors to focus on in the future include the trend of iron - water output, mine operation, and geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices**: For coking coal futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1482.0, 1181.0, and 1280.5 respectively; for coke futures, they were 1908.5, 1746.0, and 1813.5 respectively. The previous two - day closing prices and price changes are also provided [2] - **Price Changes**: The price increases for coking coal futures contracts in January, May, and September were 0.17%, 0.25%, and 0.31% respectively; for coke futures, they were 0.08%, 0.49%, and 0.08% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of coking coal futures contracts in January, May, and September were 5173, 889002, and 109235 respectively; for coke futures, they were 71, 16554, and 1623 respectively. The open interests and their changes are also presented [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads and their changes between different contracts of coking coal and coke are given, such as the spread between January - May contracts, May - September contracts, and September - January contracts [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided, including Mongolian No. 5 main coking coal, low - sulfur main coking coal, Tangshan first - grade coke, etc., and their price changes are all 0 [2] 3.3 Industry News - On March 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice to deploy the pilot work of comprehensive hydrogen energy application, aiming to reduce hydrogen energy costs through multi - scenario large - scale applications and promote the high - quality development of the hydrogen energy industry. The same day, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also deployed multiple key tasks, including consolidating the stable and positive state of the industrial economy, starting major projects in the "15th Five - Year Plan", using policy tools such as ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and technical transformation special re - loans, and promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial system [2]

Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Coking Coal and Coke (JI&J) on March 4, 2026, released by Shenwan Hongyuan Futures [1] Core View - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a weak trend in the night session yesterday, and the total position of coking coal remained basically flat compared with the previous period. The suspension of operations at Qatar Energy's facilities due to geopolitical conflicts led to a reduction in natural gas supply, prompting the power industry to switch fuels and causing the futures market to strengthen significantly. After the Spring Festival, with the resumption of work and production, there is an expectation of an increase in hot metal production, which will drive the improvement of the rigid demand for coking coal and coke, strongly supporting coal prices. Geopolitical instability can also push up the valuation of energy commodities. The future focus should be on the trend of hot metal production, mine operation, import - related policies, and geopolitical trends [2] Key Data Futures Market | Contract Month | 1st Month | 5th Month | 9th Month | 1st Month | 5th Month | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 1420.0 | 1127.0 | 1222.0 | 1856.0 | 1694.0 | | Two Days Ago's Closing Price | 1392.5 | 1094.0 | 1194.5 | 1818.0 | 1652.0 | | Change | 27.5 | 33.0 | 27.5 | 38.0 | 42.0 | | Change Rate | 1.97% | 3.02% | 2.30% | 2.09% | 2.54% | | Trading Volume | 5280 | 1151632 | 99633 | 65 | 25286 | | Open Interest | 13462 | 506242 | 108527 | 1211 | 39194 | | Change in Open Interest | 662 | - 39301 | 1655 | 3 | - 1180 | | Spread (Current Value) | 240 | - 79.5 | - 160.5 | 160.5 | - 77.5 | | Spread Change | 306 | 2.5 | - 308.5 | 429.5 | 2 | [2] Spot Market | Coal Type | Mongolian No. 5 Main Coking Coal | Low - Sulfur Main Coking Coal | Low - Sulfur Main Coking Coal | Tangshan First - Grade Coke | Jinzhong Quasi - First - Grade Coke | Rizhao Port Quasi - Grade Coke | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Price | 1373 | 1180 | 1520 | 1855 | 1330 | 1470 | | Price Change | - 17 | - 50 | 32 | 0 | - 10 | 0 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will turn from weak to strong. The news has a significant positive impact on international energy and coal - coke prices. From a fundamental perspective, the obvious reduction of coke and coking coal inventories is conducive to the bottom - up rebound of coal - coke prices, and the increase in production by coking enterprises will also bring a positive cycle of cost and price. However, attention should be paid to the start - up rhythm and intensity of downstream steel demand and how to resolve the contradiction with low steel production [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 2, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures 2605 first declined and then rose. The JM2605 contract once approached the low on January 6 but then recovered the decline of the day. The closing price of J2605 was 1652 yuan/ton, up 1.38%, with a trading volume of 18,576 lots and an open interest of 40,374 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1094 yuan/ton, up 1.06%, with a trading volume of 896,153 lots and an open interest of 545,543 lots, a decrease of 4,204 lots [5]. - In terms of the spot market on March 2, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in Linfen decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1520 yuan/ton, while other regions remained unchanged [7]. - Technically, on March 2, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2605 contract changed from sticky to rising; the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2605 contract continued to rise after a golden cross the previous day. The green bars of the daily MACD of the coke and coking coal 2605 contracts changed from expanding for two consecutive trading days to narrowing [7]. 3.2 Future Outlook - News: On February 28 (local time), the US and Israel launched a military strike against Iran, affecting the Hormuz Strait, leading to a significant increase in international crude oil prices and a resurgence in precious metal prices. On February 25, some steel mills in Tangshan received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the Two Sessions, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with the blast furnace load to be independently reduced by no less than 30%. Also on February 25, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to significantly relax the purchase restriction policy for non - Shanghai residents [9]. - Fundamentals: In the past three weeks, independent coking enterprises have continued to experience small losses, but their coke production has increased, returning to the level in mid - December last year. Port coke inventories have declined for two consecutive weeks, ending an eight - week upward trend. Steel mill coke inventories have also declined for two consecutive weeks, returning to the level before the end of January. Coking enterprise coke inventories have significantly increased, reaching a new high since early July last year. Since February 23, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has returned to the normal level of 156,000 - 199,000 tons, but the coking coal inventories of steel mills and coking plants have significantly decreased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The China Automobile Dealers Association stated that in February 2026, automobile terminal retail sales were under significant pressure. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the effective sales days were reduced, and store traffic decreased sharply. 76.8% of dealers reported that their February sales did not meet the target. After the implementation of the "Compliance Guidelines for Price Behavior in the Automobile Industry", 25.6% of dealers said the price inversion situation had improved, and 20.7% of dealers saw an increase in profitability [11]. - Tensions in the Middle East: On February 28 (local time), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced a ban on any ships passing through the Hormuz Strait. An oil tanker was hit and began to sink on March 1. The global shipping situation has been affected, with major shipping companies avoiding the Persian Gulf, and some ports and airlines suspending operations. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on March 1 that eight major oil - producing countries decided to increase daily production by 206,000 barrels in April. Thailand plans to suspend fuel exports and take measures to ensure domestic energy supply [11][12][13]. - The World Stainless Steel Association data shows that in 2025, the global stainless steel crude steel production was 64.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Asian production increased by 2.7% year - on - year, EU production decreased by 1.9%, US production increased by 7.6%, and production in other countries decreased by 11.3% [13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average hot metal production, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [15][16][17].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The coal market is experiencing a potential turnaround due to Indonesia's significant reduction in production quotas, which have dropped by 40% to 70% compared to the same period in 2025, tightening global coal supply [1] - The expectation of price recovery is rising, with four distinct companies in the coal sector: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Huabei Mining, each with unique operational strengths [5][19] Group 2: Company Financial Performance - China Shenhua has a remarkable net profit margin of 22.01%, indicating strong profitability, but its total asset turnover is low at 0.325 times, reflecting a conservative operational style [9][15] - Shaanxi Coal boasts the highest total asset turnover at 0.506 times and a net profit margin of 16.88%, showcasing efficient asset utilization and strong profitability [10][15] - Pingmei Shenma, despite having the highest financial leverage at 2.715 times, struggles with a low net profit margin of 1.99% and the lowest total asset turnover at 0.185 times, indicating operational inefficiencies [6][16] - Huabei Mining has a moderate return on equity (ROE) of approximately 1.76%, with a net profit margin of 2.50% and total asset turnover of 0.361 times, reflecting a balanced but unremarkable performance [12][16] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Implications - The reduction in Indonesian coal production is expected to impact international coal prices, potentially increasing costs for countries reliant on imported coal, including China [19] - China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, primarily focused on thermal coal, will be more directly affected by fluctuations in the international thermal coal market, while Pingmei Shenma's coking coal prices are closely tied to the steel industry's demand [19] - Internal restructuring efforts, such as Pingmei Shenma's strategic reorganization with Henan Energy Group, may enhance resource allocation and market synergy, presenting long-term growth potential [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Yesterday night, the main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a weak trend, and the total open interest of coking coal increased slightly. The output of the five major steel products last week was basically flat compared with the previous week, and the total inventory increased significantly, mainly contributed by rebar. As the Spring Festival approaches, the off - season characteristics are significant, the overall apparent demand has dropped significantly, the pig iron output and the profitability rate of steel mills are basically flat, and the incremental demand for coking coal and coke is limited. However, the pre - festival downstream demand for replenishment can support the futures market. The future focus should be on the trend of pig iron output, changes in downstream inventory, and the volume of imported coal clearance [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - **Coking Coal Futures**: The closing prices of coking coal futures contracts on the previous day for January, May, and September were 1393.5, 1147.0, and 1222.5 respectively, with daily declines of 3.0, 8.5, and 5.0, and daily decline rates of 0.22%, 0.75%, and 0.41% respectively. The trading volumes were 1668, 798141, and 34342 respectively, and the open interests were 3183, 469142, and 91110 respectively, with changes of - 85, - 6791, and 369 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively [2] - **Coke Futures**: The closing prices of coke futures contracts on the previous day for January, May, and September were 1863.5, 1703.5, and 1774.0 respectively, with daily declines of 3.5, 5.0, and 5.0, and daily decline rates of 0.19%, 0.29%, and 0.28% respectively. The trading volumes were 112, 16755, and 852 respectively, and the open interests were 633, 34909, and 1727 respectively, with changes of 66, - 121, and 55 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [2] Spot Market Data - The spot prices of Mongolian No.5 coking coal (port pick - up price), low - sulfur coking coal (Linfen ex - factory price), low - sulfur coking coal (Taiyuan rail - side price), Tangshan Grade - 1 coke (ex - factory price), Jinzhong quasi - Grade - 1 coke (ex - factory price), and Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 coke (warehouse - out price) were 1227, 1570, - 1491, 1855, 1330, and 1470 respectively [2] Industry News - On February 6th, the Ministry of Commerce held a symposium for automobile enterprises to study issues related to automobile circulation and consumption. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, Sheng Qiuping, stated that the automobile industry is a strategic and pillar industry of the national economy and an important area for stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and developing new quality productive forces. In 2025, China's automobile industry achieved excellent results, and automobiles continued to play a "pillar" role in the consumer market. In 2026, the Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to support policies and promote reform and innovation, integrate existing and new policies, optimize the implementation of automobile trade - in programs, carry out pilot reforms on automobile circulation and consumption, and take multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of automobile consumption [2]

Report Title - "Macro Favorable but Demand Constrained, Steel Prices Fluctuate - Weekly Report 20260126" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased due to the weakening of terminal demand. The main inventory - accumulating variety was rebar, with increased production and decreased demand, showing off - season pressure. Although the inventory increased, the absolute inventory was still low. Hot - rolled coil production and demand both declined, and the inventory decline slowed down. Steel exports showed certain resilience. In the short term, the contradiction of steel inventory accumulation was limited, and the raw material end did not show significant negative feedback pressure. Steel prices were supported but lacked strong driving force and would fluctuate [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Supported by macro - favorable factors, steel prices first fell and then rose. The weekly price slightly declined, and the basis narrowed. The inventory of rebar increased, and the decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Terminal demand was limited [9]. - Specific price and inventory data: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton with a weekly change, and the futures warehouse receipt of rebar decreased by 43193. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes in factory and social inventories [9]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Production - Rebar weekly output was 199.55 tons (up 4.86% week - on - week and 14.60% year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.41 tons (down 0.96% week - on - week and 5.34% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both slightly declined [15][16][19]. Profit - Rebar profit slightly decreased to +61 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton week - on - week and 53 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit slightly recovered to +1 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year) [24][26]. Demand - The apparent consumption of rebar was 185.52 tons (down 2.53% week - on - week and up 58.69% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 309.96 tons (down 1.34% week - on - week and up 2.44% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coil declined [27][31]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased, with both factory and social inventories rising. The total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (up 3.20 week - on - week and down 6.44% year - on - year). The decline of hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed, with a slight increase in factory inventory and a decrease in social inventory. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 357.78 tons (down 1.26% week - on - week and up 6.32% year - on - year) [32][36][37]. Downstream - In the real - estate sector, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.80% week - on - week and 32.32% year - on - year, and the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 49% week - on - week and 69% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in December 2025, automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [41][43][44]. 03 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly widened, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated narrowly. The coil - to - rebar spread widened, and the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal slightly widened [48][53]