证券研究报告 工业/能源 霍尔木兹变局可能助推能源转型加速 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 美国与以色列 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动联合军事打击，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹 海峡，我们认为这将通过三种路径影响能源供给及价格：1）供应中断风险 （途径霍尔木兹海峡的原油、天然气规模较高）；2）航线绕行增加运输时 间和成本；3）市场预期放大价格波动幅度。我们认为此次事件也将提升全 球各国对于能源安全与自主的紧迫性认知，加速能源转型从而减少对于中东 油气进口的依赖。我们推测： • 发电对 LNG 进口依赖度高的国家短期将先增加煤炭采购以应急，并 快速部署光储系统（包括户用光储），推升煤化工用煤需求； • 中长期则需要走向风光储+核电、绿氢制甲醇的自主可控解决方案。 我们重申推荐电新和煤炭板块，看好宁德时代 A/H、阳光电源、亿纬锂能、 天赐材料、华明装备、特变电工、伊顿、福斯特、Enphase、中国神华 H。 冲突或带来能源供给受阻及价格高企，储能需求有望得到拉动 光储系统可快速部署解燃眉之急，能源价格高企更显经济性；且自主可控。 能源保供诉求下，冲突将拉动受影响地区需求（参照俄乌冲突后欧洲储 ...

Summary of Borayton's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Borayton - **Industry**: Mining Equipment and Renewable Energy Solutions Key Financials and Performance - In 2025, Borayton's overall business scale was approximately **760 million RMB**, with mining truck revenue accounting for over **80%**, showing a year-on-year growth of nearly **80%** [2][4] - The overall performance growth for 2025 was about **20%** [4] - For 2026, Borayton plans to achieve a **120%** increase in wide-body truck revenue, targeting **1,200 units** sold [6] - Expected vehicle revenue for 2026 is over **1.5 billion RMB**, with grid revenue around **300 million RMB** [7] - Total revenue for 2027 is projected to exceed **3 billion RMB**, with power station revenue reaching **750 million RMB** and vehicle revenue over **2 billion RMB** [7] Business Segments and Growth Strategies - Borayton focuses on three main business segments: **photovoltaic power generation**, **electric mining trucks**, and **autonomous driving technology**, creating a closed-loop system [3] - The company has initiated **four photovoltaic power projects** in Africa, providing stable, low-cost electricity to local mining operations [8] - Borayton has signed multiple large-scale delivery agreements to promote autonomous driving technology in coal and metal mines [6] Competitive Advantages - The **cost-effectiveness** of renewable energy mining trucks is highlighted, with significant savings compared to diesel trucks. For instance, the cost per kilometer for electric trucks is **6 RMB**, compared to **21 RMB** for diesel trucks [15] - Borayton's photovoltaic projects, such as the **76 MW Li Zhuba project**, can generate **1.2 billion kWh** of electricity annually, yielding **180 million RMB** in revenue [5][10] - The company has a strategic partnership with **Xinjiang Mingyang** to transition part of their autonomous vehicle operations to Borayton's systems, aiming for reduced operational costs [2] Future Outlook and Market Expansion - Borayton is optimistic about overseas market opportunities, particularly in Africa, where they aim to become a leading provider of integrated solutions for mining operations [13] - The company plans to establish a presence in **Australia** and **South America**, with projects aimed at addressing local energy needs through integrated solutions [19][14] - By 2026, Borayton expects to deliver **300 to 500** electric autonomous vehicles, increasing to **1,000** by 2027 and **3,000 to 5,000** by 2028 [12] Challenges and Considerations - The company faces challenges in project execution in Africa, including high transportation costs and lengthy licensing processes [25] - Maintenance costs for photovoltaic systems are relatively low, but depreciation remains a significant financial consideration [26] Conclusion - Borayton is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for electric mining solutions and renewable energy, with a clear strategy for market expansion and technological advancement. The company aims to integrate its operations to become a leader in the mining equipment and renewable energy sectors, leveraging its competitive advantages in cost and technology [30]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the **gas turbine industry**, highlighting the surge in demand driven by **AI data center construction** and **energy transition**. The demand for gas turbines is projected to reach approximately **56 GW in 2024**, with further growth expected in 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Drivers**: The global gas turbine market is primarily driven by two factors: the increasing demand for AI and the upgrade of energy structures. These trends are expected to accelerate starting in 2024 [2]. - **Regional Demand**: The North American and Middle Eastern markets are experiencing significant growth in gas turbine orders, with major manufacturers like **Mitsubishi Heavy Industries** and **GE** reporting substantial increases in orders, particularly for heavy gas turbines [3][4]. - **Middle East Energy Transition**: Saudi Arabia aims for **50% of its electricity to come from natural gas by 2030**, contributing to a significant rise in gas demand in the region. Since June 2024, major gas turbine manufacturers in the Middle East have secured around **20 GW** in gas orders, which will be crucial for the demand increase in 2025 [5]. - **Supply Constraints**: Global gas turbine manufacturers are facing supply shortages and are actively expanding production capacities. GE plans to increase its capacity to **90 units by 2028**, while Siemens Energy anticipates reaching over **30 GW** in capacity by 2030 [6]. Additional Important Insights - **Opportunities for Chinese Component Suppliers**: Chinese companies are gaining opportunities to deepen collaborations with international manufacturers. Companies like **Longda** and **Yingliu** have signed long-term agreements with firms such as **GE** and **Siemens Energy** [7]. - **Growth in Storage Solutions**: The demand for energy storage solutions is expected to grow significantly, with North American large-scale storage capacity projected to reach **70 GWh by 2025**. The annual growth rate for AI data center-related storage is anticipated to be between **20%-30%** [19]. - **HRSG Market Impact**: The demand for Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSG) is expected to rise as **60-70%** of North American gas power projects will adopt combined cycle power generation, enhancing power generation efficiency by **40-50%** [13]. - **Economic Viability of Solar and Storage Solutions**: The cost of solar energy combined with storage is becoming increasingly competitive, especially with policy support that can reduce overall investment costs by about **30%** [18]. Conclusion The gas turbine industry is poised for significant growth driven by AI and energy transition trends, with substantial opportunities for both established manufacturers and emerging suppliers, particularly in the context of North American and Middle Eastern markets. The integration of renewable energy solutions, such as solar and storage, is also becoming a critical component of the energy landscape.

Global Market Overview - The global energy storage industry is expected to enter a two-year high-growth cycle starting in 2026, driven by strong demand in both domestic and international markets, optimizing the industry chain structure, and highlighting the advantages of leading companies [1] - Global energy storage demand is projected to explode, with installed capacity reaching 236 GWh in 2025 (+69%), 428 GWh in 2026 (+82%), and 617 GWh in 2027 (+44%) [1][10] - China and the United States are the main markets driving this growth, with Europe and emerging markets also experiencing rapid penetration [1][11] Domestic Market Dynamics - In China, the energy storage market is benefiting from capacity price subsidies and innovative business models, with a tendering volume of 190 GWh from January to November 2025 (+138%) and a record filing volume exceeding 1 TWh [1][6] - The installed capacity in China is expected to reach 163 GWh in 2025 (+47%) and 265 GWh in 2026 (+60%) [1][6] - Independent energy storage is becoming mainstream, replacing mandatory storage requirements, with diversified revenue sources and an internal rate of return (IRR) generally between 6-12% [1][6] Segment Analysis - Large-scale energy storage (big storage) is the core growth driver, with global demand expected to continue high growth from 2025 to 2027 [3] - The demand for energy storage batteries is projected to reach 628 GWh in 2025 (+91%) and 663 GWh in 2026 (+61%), with prices rebounding from the bottom [3][6] - The user-side storage market is also growing steadily, with global installations expected to maintain a growth rate of 10-20% from 2025 to 2026, particularly in Australia and Europe [3][6] International Market Trends - In the United States, the surge in electricity demand from AI data centers and grid shortcomings is driving the adoption of solar-plus-storage systems, with expected installations of 53 GWh in 2025 and 80 GWh in 2026 (+51%) [2][6] - Europe is seeing significant policy support, with large-scale storage installations projected to reach 20 GWh in 2025 (+131%) and 42 GWh in 2026 (+109%) [2][6] - Emerging markets, including the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia, are expected to contribute significantly, with large-scale storage installations projected to reach 34 GWh in 2025 (+220%) and 80 GWh in 2026 (+134%) [2][6] Investment Recommendations - The energy storage market in China and the U.S. is entering a new growth cycle, supported by multiple points of growth in Europe and emerging markets, indicating a sustained high growth potential for 2026-2027 [6] - Companies such as Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, Haibo Technology, and Yiwei Lithium Energy are recommended for investment in the large-scale storage sector, while companies like Deye Technology, Airo Energy, and Jinlang Technology are favored in the user-side storage segment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the 33.28MWp/37.50MWh solar-storage project at the Abidjan Gold Mine in Côte d'Ivoire marks a significant achievement for the company, addressing power supply challenges and enhancing operational efficiency [2][3] Group 1: Project Details - The solar-storage project has been successfully connected to the grid, resolving the power bottleneck that hindered stable operations at the Abidjan Gold Mine [2] - The project enables a multi-energy complementary smart microgrid system, integrating solar, storage, grid electricity, and diesel power, allowing seamless switching between grid-connected and off-grid modes [2] - The new system significantly reduces electricity costs compared to traditional power supply methods, providing a long-term cost advantage for the mine [2] Group 2: Strategic Implications - This project is the first large-scale renewable energy demonstration power station for mines in Côte d'Ivoire following the implementation of the country's New Energy Law, showcasing the company's commitment to ESG principles and green mining [3] - The company aims to accelerate the construction and operation of key overseas projects, including the Abidjan Gold Mine, Odlan Mining, and King Gold Mining, as part of its "Development Doubling Plan" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - The successful implementation of the global integrated operational support system is expected to serve as a model for the company's international development in the gold mining sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global photovoltaic and energy storage market is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development," focusing on technology iteration, service experience, and sustainability rather than just capacity competition [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The demand in overseas markets is shifting from "high-performance products" to "user-friendly, durable, and green overall solutions" [1]. - The recent power outage in Spain highlighted the importance of energy storage systems for maintaining energy balance in Europe [5]. - The challenge of over 700 million people in Africa, Asia, and Latin America lacking electricity is driving the industry to further reduce the cost of photovoltaic and energy storage solutions [5]. Group 2: Company Strategies - GoodWe aims to create a new ecosystem of energy producers and consumers by enabling users to generate and use green electricity on-site, significantly reducing electricity costs from an average of 0.8 yuan/kWh to 0.2-0.3 yuan/kWh [3][5]. - The company has established a brand strategy to become a leader in smart energy solutions, focusing on user engagement and sustainable practices [3][11]. - Airo, a storage solution expert, emphasizes the need for integrated, intelligent systems that address customer demands for seamless energy generation, storage, and usage [8][12]. Group 3: Brand Building and Marketing - GoodWe recognizes the importance of building brand awareness around end-users, as they ultimately become energy producers and consumers [3]. - Airo has engaged in brand marketing by sponsoring Borussia Dortmund, leveraging the club's influence to build long-term trust in the German market [9][10]. - Both companies utilize LinkedIn to precisely target and connect with core customer groups, enhancing brand promotion and customer engagement [6][10]. Group 4: ESG Commitment - GoodWe joined the UN Global Compact in 2021 and established a sustainable development research institute in 2023 to elevate ESG to a strategic level [11]. - The company aims to integrate ESG practices into every aspect of its operations, ensuring that sustainability is not just a compliance issue but a core part of its business model [12]. - Airo emphasizes that ESG is fundamental to product development and operations, focusing on transparency, safety, and sustainability in its supply chain [12][13].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electricity supply gap in the United States, particularly driven by the surge in demand from AI data centers, which is expected to add 12-20 GW of capacity annually from 2025 to 2028, leading to a peak load increase of approximately 130 GW [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Electricity Demand Growth**: The annual electricity consumption growth rate is projected to reach 1.7% from 2020 to 2026, primarily driven by AI-related data center demands [2]. - **Energy Supply Challenges**: Traditional energy sources such as coal, nuclear, and natural gas are facing retirement and capacity constraints, making it difficult to meet the rising demand [2][5]. - **Emerging Solutions**: Solar energy, wind energy combined with storage, and Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) are identified as reliable alternatives to meet the growing electricity needs. BE Company forecasts SOFC capacity to increase from 1 GW in 2025 to 4 GW by 2028 [1][2][3]. - **Impact of AI on Electricity Demand**: The AI industry significantly impacts electricity consumption, with Nvidia's guidance indicating a 50% annual growth in the AI sector, pushing peak electricity capacity in the summer from 770 GW to nearly 900 GW by 2028 [4][11]. - **Tariff Implications**: Despite potential cost increases due to tariffs, solar storage and SOFC solutions remain competitive, with strong adaptability demonstrated in California projects [6][7]. Recommendations for Companies - Companies to watch include CATL and Sungrow in the lithium battery storage industry, as well as BE Company, Fluence, and A-share company Sanhua Group, all of which have strong competitiveness and ample orders in the solar storage and SOFC sectors [8]. Lithium Battery Material Chain Outlook - The lithium battery material chain is expected to enter a prosperous cycle by Q3 2025, with upstream lithium hexafluorophosphate producers and downstream anode and cathode sectors poised for growth. Supply tightness may occur in the peak season of 2026 [9]. Future Energy Supply Solutions - To address future data center power supply needs, several solutions are proposed: solar plus storage, SOFC, traditional gas turbines, and nuclear power. However, small modular nuclear power is unlikely to achieve commercial viability before 2030 [12][18]. SFC Market Trends - SFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) applications in North American data centers are scaling up, with significant orders from companies like Amazon and Oracle, indicating a growing role in the energy supply landscape [14][17]. Gas Turbine Supply Situation - The supply of gas turbines is expected to be insufficient in the short term, with new capacity not anticipated until 2027 or 2028, failing to meet the rapidly increasing demand [15]. Conclusion on Energy Demand Projections - By 2028, Nvidia alone is projected to require an additional 30 GW of electricity, with total demand potentially exceeding 60 GW when considering other suppliers. Current gas turbine capacity is insufficient to meet this demand, highlighting the optimistic outlook for emerging energy technologies like SFC [19].

Core Viewpoint - The focus on energy storage has intensified for JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ) following recent developments in the industry, particularly with Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) entering the energy storage market, prompting investors to reassess the strategies of various renewable energy companies [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - JA Solar began its energy storage business in 2022, transitioning its main product line from photovoltaic products to a combined photovoltaic and energy storage business group in 2023 [3][6]. - Despite the shift, JA Solar's revenue remains predominantly from photovoltaic modules, leading to challenges as module prices have not rebounded quickly [3][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, JA Solar reported a revenue of 23.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36%, and a net loss of 2.58 billion yuan, which is an increase in losses compared to the previous year [8]. - The company attributed its financial struggles to an oversupply in the photovoltaic industry, increased competition, and declining prices for key products, compounded by international trade protection policies [8][14]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - JA Solar has set a target to return to profitability by 2026, with energy storage expected to play a crucial role in achieving this goal [4][17]. - The company has been actively pursuing new orders in the energy storage sector, with plans to establish a new factory in Egypt that will support 2GW of battery and component production, along with a 1GW energy storage system capacity [5][7]. Group 4: Market Position - JA Solar ranks third globally in module shipments, tied with Trina Solar (688599.SH), following JinkoSolar (688223.SH) and Longi Green Energy [11]. - The company's module business has faced significant challenges, with a gross margin of -5.98% in the first half of the year, a decline of 10.51 percentage points year-on-year [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company has integrated its T-Smart one-stop solution with Alibaba Cloud and DeepSeek, preparing for product development and technical application enhancements through AI technology [1] Group 1: AI Integration - The company has deployed DeepSeek on internal servers to facilitate product development based on the T-Smart system [1] - DeepSeek is recognized as an advanced AI technology that can enhance internal efficiency through various methods [1] - The company is actively incorporating AI technology into various products, including cleaning robots, lawn mowers, teaching robots, cooking robots, energy storage systems, and industrial visual inspection [1] Group 2: Future Exploration - The company plans to continue exploring the integration of AI with smart hardware products in the future [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia has launched an ambitious 100GW photovoltaic development plan, known as the "Village Cooperative Million Solar Plan," directly signed by President Prabowo Subianto [2] - The plan aims to deploy 80GW of solar capacity in 80,000 villages using a "1MW solar + 4MWh storage" microgrid system, with the first 10,000 village systems expected to be operational by August 2025 [2] - The initiative also includes the construction of 20GW of centralized solar power plants, which will cater to both grid-connected and off-grid needs, enhancing electricity access in rural areas [2] Economic Viability - The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the solar-storage system is projected to be around $0.12-$0.15 per kWh over the next 25 years, significantly lower than the diesel generation cost of $0.20-$0.40 per kWh [2] - This transition to solar-storage systems is expected to provide affordable and equitable energy solutions for the Indonesian population, particularly in rural and remote areas [2] Challenges and Recommendations - The goal of achieving 100GW of solar capacity within five years is deemed "highly challenging" [2] - Recommendations include collaborating with provincial universities and vocational schools to train solar installation technicians, conducting training for operation and maintenance personnel, and designing mixed financing solutions [2][3] Potential and Future Plans - According to IESR, Indonesia's photovoltaic development potential ranges from 3,300GW to 20,000GW [4] - The country aims to achieve a target of 108.7GW of solar capacity by 2060 as part of its national energy policy [4]