新消费系列电话会：大众品跟踪 20250505 摘要 • 海天销售为完成考核任务可能少报库存，导致实际库存高于报告的 24%， 或达 24.5%，影响公司对市场需求的准确评估和库存管理。 • 二季度目标完成难度大，餐饮市场恢复不及预期，居民渠道增速放缓，小 品类动销不畅导致经销商库存积压，影响整体销售增长。 • 2025 年沙拉凉拌汁市场表现逊于去年，缺乏明星产品，增速放缓，对整 体销售贡献减少，需关注新品研发和市场推广。 • 海天增加费用投放以应对激烈的市场竞争，费用投放侧重居民渠道，加强 对二套网络经销商的扶持，以提升市场份额。 • 百润股份 4 月线下发货额同比下滑，强爽、微醺和清爽等主要产品均有不 同程度的下滑，经销商库存压力增加，授信额度大幅减少。 • 百润股份动销量下滑主要受经济环境和 Rio 价格线下行影响，经销商和渠 道利润减少，需关注市场拐点和新品推出。 • 百润股份收紧销售费用以保证利润值，但若 6 月销售不达预期，将增加费 用投入，同时积极解决库存问题，逐步恢复市场价格。 Q&A 近期海天味业的发货情况和库存压力如何？对二季度的展望是什么？ 今年 4 月份，海天味业的发货情况较为一般，出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the near term [1][5][21]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.315 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.202 billion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company is expected to achieve close to double-digit growth for the full year 2025, driven by strong performance in new products and effective channel strategies [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 26.901 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.5%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 29.595 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.0% growth rate [1][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6.344 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 7.163 billion yuan in 2025, with respective growth rates of 12.8% and 12.9% [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to increase from 1.14 yuan in 2024 to 1.29 yuan in 2025, and further to 1.43 yuan in 2026 [1][10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 36 times in 2024 to 32 times in 2025, and further down to 29 times in 2026 [1][10]. - **Market Position**: - The company has shown resilience in its market position, with a notable increase in revenue from new product categories, particularly in the condiment segment, which saw a 10.3% year-on-year growth [5][6]. - **Cash Flow**: - The company reported cash receipts of 6.226 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking an 8.0% increase year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow management [5][6]. - **Cost Management**: - The gross margin improved to 40.0% in Q1 2025, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material costs and scale effects [5][6]. - **Regional Performance**: - Revenue growth varied by region, with the southern region showing a 16.1% increase, indicating a strengthening market presence [5][6]. - **Future Outlook**: - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, supported by strategic initiatives in product development and market expansion [5][6].