宏观专题 消费补贴和信贷贴息如何推动扩内 需？——挖掘经济潜能系列二 2026 年 02 月 27 日 【宏观观点】 【风险提示】 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王笑笑 证书编号：S1160525020006 证券分析师：陈然 证书编号：S1160524060002 相关研究 《"双碳"政策有望提力加速》 2026.02.25 《地方两会系列（一）——经济增长目标》 2026.02.13 2026.01.05 宏 观 研 究 / 宏 观 专 题 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年，补贴对经济的贡献加大，"两新""两重"等政策支撑消费和 投资稳步修复。一方面，消费补贴和供给优化协同发力，补贴类商品 增速保持高位。另一方面，"财政补贴+税收信贷优惠"对投资的影响 较大，设备更新、高技术服务、政策托底基建等重点领域投资较快增 长。 2026 年，扩内需政策持续优化，消费补贴和投资贴息或仍是年内核心 举措。"两新"政策的优化支持范围、补贴标准、实施机制，突出对中 小企业、绿色转型、新技术新产品新场景的支持。降低结构性货币政 策工具利率，同时对中小微民营、制造业设备更新、服务业贷款进行 贴息 ...

近日，首届中国消费名品产业创新大赛闭幕式在西安举行。现场，陕西省人工智能赋能消费品行业 创新研发中心正式启动。该中心由省工信厅牵头建设，中国软件评测中心提供智力与技术支撑，将聚焦 富硒产品、乳制品、白酒、医药和医疗装备、纺织服装等重点领域，通过前瞻研究、示范推广、测试评 估等七大任务，打造全国人工智能赋能消费品工业创新样板。 本次大赛由中国电子信息产业发展研究院联合省工信厅、西安高新区管委会举办，以人工智能赋能 消费品工业创新发展为主题，聚焦产品创新、技术攻关、消费新场景，挖掘一批利用AI技术精准解决 行业痛点、提升制造效能、引领品牌升级的创新产品与解决方案，加速前沿AI理念应用落地和价值释 放。 工业和信息化部消费品工业司二级巡视员邓小丁表示，要深化协同联动，以人工智能赋能产业高质 量发展，本次大赛的举办为人工智能与消费品工业深度融合提供了实践探索，将组织实施"人工智能＋ 三品"专项行动，分行业分领域制定人工智能赋能应用全景图和转型路线图，加快培育消费品领域专用 大模型与优质服务商，持续开展中国消费名品产业创新大赛，着力构建全链条创新生态。 省工信厅相关负责人表示，本次大赛的举办，为陕西链接全国创新资源、加 ...

Core Insights - The first China Consumer Brand Industry Innovation Competition concluded successfully in Xi'an, focusing on the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in the consumer goods industry [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was attended by over 200 representatives from various industrial and governmental sectors, including officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and local industrial departments [3]. - The competition was co-hosted by the China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute, the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, and the Xi'an High-tech Industrial Development Zone Management Committee [3]. Group 2: Themes and Objectives - The competition centered on three main themes: product innovation, technological breakthroughs, and new consumer scenarios, aiming to identify innovative products and solutions that leverage AI to address industry pain points and enhance manufacturing efficiency [3][5]. - The event aims to accelerate the application and value release of cutting-edge AI concepts in the consumer goods sector [3]. Group 3: Future Directions - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a "AI + Three Products" initiative, creating a comprehensive application roadmap for AI in various industries [5]. - Shaanxi Province aims to use the competition as a key opportunity to strengthen resource connections and accelerate the digital transformation of industries [8]. Group 4: Innovation and Collaboration - The establishment of the Shaanxi Province AI Empowerment Consumer Goods Industry Innovation Research Center was announced, focusing on key local sectors such as selenium-rich products, dairy, liquor, pharmaceuticals, and textiles [12]. - The next competition will continue to emphasize AI's role in consumer goods innovation, enhancing the mechanism for results transformation and promoting deep integration of industry, academia, and research [8][10]. Group 5: Showcase of Innovations - The competition featured presentations from 33 finalist teams, showcasing deep explorations and practices of AI technology in various fields, including smart home appliances and modern food [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is enhancing financial support through interest subsidies for consumer loans and small and micro enterprises, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and support the real economy [8][9][12]. Group 1: Consumer Loan Policies - The upgraded consumer loan subsidy policies will provide a 1% interest subsidy on personal consumption loans and service industry loans, benefiting both consumers and businesses [9][10]. - The policies have been optimized to include credit card installment payments, allowing more consumers to benefit from the subsidies [11]. - The implementation period for these policies has been extended to December 31, 2026, with potential for further extensions based on effectiveness [17][19]. Group 2: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - A new interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises will provide a 1.5% subsidy on loans, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan and a subsidy period of up to two years [14][16]. - The policy targets key industries such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and medical equipment, aiming to alleviate financing difficulties for private enterprises [14][16]. - The equipment update loan subsidy policy has been expanded to include fixed asset loans related to equipment updates and technology innovation [15][16]. Group 3: Implementation and Efficiency - The government aims to streamline the process for accessing these subsidies, ensuring that consumers and businesses can benefit from the policies with minimal bureaucratic hurdles [18][19]. - There is a focus on making the subsidy process more efficient, with an emphasis on automatic recognition of eligible transactions to facilitate immediate benefits for consumers [18][19]. - The policies are designed to create a favorable consumption environment by reducing credit costs and enhancing consumer purchasing power [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has issued a notice to implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises, focusing on key industry chains and their upstream and downstream sectors [1] Group 1: Supported Industries - The policy supports fixed asset loans for small and micro private enterprises involved in key industry chains, including new energy vehicles, industrial mother machines, pharmaceutical industry, medical equipment, basic software, industrial software, civil aircraft, servers, mobile communication devices, new displays, instruments, industrial robots, rail transit equipment, marine engineering equipment, agricultural machinery, and more [1] - It also covers production service sectors such as technology services, logistics services, information and software services, energy-saving and environmental protection services, productive leasing services, and business services [1] Group 2: Emerging Fields - The policy emphasizes support for emerging fields represented by artificial intelligence and other innovative sectors [1]

Group 1 - Midea Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Anhui Jiaokong and Wanjing Jinzu on October 17 [1] - The collaboration will focus on key areas such as new energy, industrial robotics, and medical equipment manufacturing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China has shown significant growth and resilience, supported by various policies and a focus on technological innovation, contributing to the overall economic stability and development of the country [1][2][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - In the first eight months of the year, tax revenue from the manufacturing sector increased by over 5% year-on-year, accounting for more than 30% of total tax revenue [1]. - The added value of the manufacturing industry grew by 7.0% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 0.6 percentage points [2]. - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing saw added value growth rates of 10.2% and 9.5%, respectively, exceeding the overall industrial growth by 3.8 and 3.1 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Policy Support and Initiatives - A series of supportive policies have been implemented to enhance the manufacturing sector, including guidelines for upgrading traditional manufacturing and promoting future industries [3][4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has supported 46 cities in piloting new technology transformations, resulting in over 230 top-tier smart factories and 1,260 5G factories [2]. - Local governments are focusing on developing the real economy, with initiatives such as advanced manufacturing cluster cultivation and key industry chain service officer systems [3]. Group 3: Technological Innovation and Structural Optimization - The manufacturing sector is entering a new phase of technological innovation, with breakthroughs in key core technologies and strategic products [2]. - There is an emphasis on enhancing the self-control capability of core technologies and optimizing the industrial structure to strengthen competitive advantages [4]. - The transition towards intelligent and green manufacturing is being prioritized, with support for leading enterprises to adopt industrial internet platforms and promote low-carbon, high-efficiency transformations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The "Mechanical Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to achieve an average annual revenue growth rate of approximately 3.5% for the mechanical industry, with total revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2026, while fostering competitive small and medium-sized enterprises and industry clusters with international competitiveness [1][5][26]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The plan is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, focusing on stable progress and the integration of supply and demand [4][25]. - It emphasizes the need for coordinated efforts in technological and industrial innovation to stimulate effective demand and enhance the supply capacity of quality equipment [4][31]. Group 2: Main Goals - The mechanical industry is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, with resilience and safety in key supply chains continuously improving, aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of around 3.5% and total revenue surpassing 10 trillion yuan by 2026 [5][32]. - The plan also targets the enhancement of enterprise competitiveness and the cultivation of competitive industry clusters [5][32]. Group 3: Work Measures Expanding Effective Demand - The plan includes measures to tap into existing market potential, promote new demand, and stabilize foreign trade [6][26]. - It emphasizes the importance of updating old equipment and promoting advanced agricultural machinery through subsidies [6][36]. Enhancing Quality Equipment Supply Capacity - The plan calls for the integration of technological and industrial innovation, focusing on enhancing the resilience and safety of supply chains [11][27]. - It aims to support collaborative innovation between enterprises and research institutions to drive technological advancements [11][41]. Stimulating Industry Growth Vitality - The plan proposes nurturing high-quality enterprises and promoting regional coordinated development to enhance the internal dynamics of the mechanical industry [16][53]. - It encourages the establishment of a favorable business environment and the implementation of supportive policies for small and medium-sized enterprises [18][61]. Group 4: Guarantee Measures - The plan stresses the need for coordinated efforts among various departments to ensure the effective implementation of policies that support the mechanical industry's stability [19][26]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring economic operations and establishing a risk warning mechanism to address potential issues in the industry [20][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Mechanical Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, emphasizing the cultivation of high-tech enterprises and the development of a robust industrial ecosystem to support the mechanical industry and enhance its global competitiveness [3][8]. Summary by Sections Overall Requirements - The plan aims to stabilize the mechanical industry, enhance supply chain resilience, and promote technological and industrial innovation, aligning with the new development philosophy and the goals of modernizing the industrial system [9][10]. Main Goals - The mechanical industry is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with an average annual revenue growth rate of around 3.5%, aiming to exceed 10 trillion yuan in revenue by 2026 [10]. Work Measures - **Expanding Effective Demand**: Strategies include updating old equipment, promoting advanced agricultural machinery, and enhancing medical equipment to stimulate demand [11][12][13]. - **Investment Expansion**: The plan encourages significant investments in major projects and the use of various funds to boost demand for mechanical equipment [13]. - **Digital Transformation**: Emphasis on digitalization and smart upgrades across various sectors, including agriculture and healthcare, to enhance operational efficiency [14]. - **Open Cooperation**: Encouragement for enterprises to explore international markets and enhance cooperation through trade agreements and partnerships [15]. - **Enhancing Supply Capacity**: Focus on improving innovation capabilities and developing high-quality equipment to meet domestic and international demands [16][17][18]. - **Standardization and Quality Improvement**: The plan includes initiatives to enhance standards and quality across the mechanical industry, promoting reliability and competitiveness [19][20]. Stimulating Industry Growth - **Cultivating Quality Enterprises**: The plan aims to nurture world-class enterprises and specialized small giants in various sectors, including robotics and medical equipment [21]. - **Regional Development Coordination**: Support for regional strengths and the establishment of competitive manufacturing bases in different provinces [22]. - **Support for SMEs**: Initiatives to enhance services for small and medium-sized enterprises, ensuring they receive necessary support and resources [23]. Guarantee Measures - **Coordination and Policy Support**: Emphasis on inter-departmental collaboration and the implementation of supportive policies to ensure the mechanical industry's stability [25]. - **Monitoring and Risk Management**: Establishment of a risk warning mechanism to monitor the economic performance of the mechanical industry [26].

Core Viewpoint - The "Mechanical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims for an average annual revenue growth rate of approximately 3.5% and a revenue target exceeding 10 trillion yuan, reflecting higher demands for growth quality and technological self-sufficiency compared to previous targets [1][2]. Group 1: Key Objectives and Tasks - The plan outlines 14 key tasks across three main areas: expanding effective demand, enhancing quality equipment supply capacity, and stimulating industry growth vitality [2][9]. - It emphasizes both short-term stability through measures like expanding effective demand and long-term structural optimization focusing on high-quality development and the integration of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence [2][6]. Group 2: Demand Expansion Strategies - The plan identifies that 70% of demand in the mechanical industry comes from infrastructure and equipment investment, proposing strategies to tap into domestic market potential and foster new demand [4]. - Specific tasks include promoting major technological renovations, updating outdated equipment, and implementing policies for the promotion of significant technological equipment [4][6]. Group 3: New Demand Cultivation - The plan encourages the development of new economic sectors such as the "first launch economy," "ice and snow economy," and "silver economy," as well as applications for specialized robots and smart medical equipment [6][7]. - It highlights the integration of artificial intelligence in logistics and healthcare, aiming to create smart medical scenarios and promote intelligent medical and rehabilitation equipment [6][10]. Group 4: Quality Equipment Supply Enhancement - The plan addresses issues like insufficient high-end equipment supply and the need for deeper integration of technological and industrial innovation, proposing five tasks to enhance innovation capabilities and supply chain resilience [9][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of developing high-quality components and advanced manufacturing processes to reduce reliance on external technologies and ensure stability in extreme conditions [10]. Group 5: Industry Growth Vitality - The plan aims to alleviate operational pressures on mechanical industry enterprises by fostering high-quality companies and enhancing regional coordination [11]. - It includes measures to improve the business environment, such as addressing irrational competition and promoting industry self-discipline through associations [11].