宏观经济 高频数据统计周报 2025.11.24-2025.11.30 分析师： 蒋开来 中央编号： BWL381 联系电话： 852-6430 1060 邮箱： jiangkl@cnzsqh.hk 1 目录 2 l 宏观经济高频数据一览表 l 生产端 l 消费端 l 地产基建 l 进出口 l 物价通胀 l 交通运输 宏观经济 高频数据一览表 3 宏观经济高频数据一览表 | 指标名称 数据频率 | | | 更新时间 | 最新值 | 前值 | | 环比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生产 | | | | | | | | | 焦炉开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025/11/28 | 72. 04 | 71.08 | IN | 0.96 | | 高炉开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025/11/28 | 81. 07 | 82. 17 | E | -1.1 | | PX开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025/11/27 | 90. 13 | 90. 13 | | 0.00 | | PTA开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week's main concerns include a slight rebound in the week-on-week new home sales in 20 cities, a widening year-on-year decline, and only Hangzhou's new home sales were higher than the same period last year. Overall, the real estate sales remained weak. Commodity prices mostly rose, the production remained stable with a differentiated performance in the operating rates. The box office was significantly higher than the seasonal level due to the release of popular movies, which concentratedly reflected the viewing demand [2]. - The year-on-year decline in new home sales widened this week. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Specifically, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices rose. The price of rebar increased slightly, with robust demand, steel mills reducing production, and merchants reluctant to sell, which supported the price increase. The cement price increased slightly as the weather improved, construction accelerated, and manufacturers pushed up the price, but the demand support was limited. The glass futures price rose, with an enhanced expectation of supply contraction, solid cost support, and short - term improvement in production and sales. The asphalt price decreased slightly due to the seasonal shrinkage of demand, sufficient supply, and weakened cost - end support [2]. - In industrial production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the travel momentum was strong. The subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile consumption, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [2]. - In terms of inflation, the pork price decreased, the vegetable price and oil price increased. This week, the vegetable price increased due to cold weather and rainfall leading to vegetable production reduction and poor supply connection. The crude oil price increased, driven by the expected production cut by OPEC+, the decline in US production, and geopolitical risks [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI increased this week. The transportation demand on the East Coast of the United States route rebounded, shipping companies promoted freight rate increases, and the operating cost provided support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remained Weak Year-on-Year - From November 21st to November 27th, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Among them, the new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2][7]. - In terms of key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Beijing (-32.88%), Shenzhen (-28.09%), and Hangzhou (-1.38%), the new home transactions in other key cities were significantly stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, except for Hangzhou (18.73%), the new home transaction areas in other key cities were much weaker than the same period last year [7]. - From November 21st to November 27th, the second - hand home transactions showed a differentiated week-on-week performance, and the year-on-year decline widened. In key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Hangzhou (-1.46%) and Shenzhen (-7.75%), the second - hand home transaction areas in other key cities were stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, the second - hand home transaction areas in all key cities decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [7]. 2. Investment: Commodity Prices Mostly Rose - In terms of investment, most commodity prices rose this week. The prices of rebar and cement increased slightly, the glass futures price rose, and the asphalt price decreased slightly [31]. 3. Production: Operating Rates Showed a Differentiated Performance - In production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance this week. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [39]. 4. Consumption: Travel Momentum was Strong - In terms of consumption, the subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile sales, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [49]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Increased - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased slightly, the BDI index increased, the port cargo throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly this week [55]. 6. Prices: Pork Price Decreased, Vegetable Price Increased, Oil Price Increased - In terms of prices, the pork price decreased slightly, the vegetable price increased, the oil price increased, and the rebar price increased slightly [60].

Price-Related Summary - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index is at 1,045.84, down 16.48 from last week [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.38 per barrel, an increase of $0.37 from last week, while WTI crude oil settled at $59.00 per barrel, up $0.31 [3] - Average wholesale prices for vegetables decreased by ¥0.04 per kg, fruits by ¥0.01 per kg, pork by ¥0.15 per kg, beef by ¥0.25 per kg, and lamb by ¥0.40 per kg [3] Industrial-Related Summary - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index is at 3,456.21, down 66.82 from last week [14] - Glass futures closed at ¥987 per ton, down ¥45 per ton, and coking coal futures closed at ¥1,103 per ton, down ¥89 per ton [14] - The blast furnace operating rate is recorded at 82.17%, a decrease of 2.08% from last week, while the operating rate for petroleum asphalt is at 24.80%, down 4.20% [14] Real Estate Investment Summary - The land transaction area in 100 major cities is approximately 13,497,800 square meters, an increase of 7,013,200 square meters from last week [21] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is about 1,725,600 square meters, up 330,500 square meters from last week [21] - The second-hand housing listing price index is recorded at 148.80, down 0.26, with the decline rate less than the previous week [21] Transportation and Retail Summary - Subway passenger volumes increased significantly, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing changes of -1.16%, 2.41%, 4.17%, and 1.91% respectively [31] - Box office revenue reached ¥656 million, an increase of ¥444 million from last week [31] - Retail sales of passenger cars totaled 67,312 units, up 21,256 units from last week [31] - The number of domestic flights executed was 86,716, an increase of 822 from last week [31]

Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices have dropped significantly [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices continue to rise [3] - Energy: Liquefied natural gas prices keep falling [3] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate increases, PTA operating rate decreases, and urea operating rate increases [3] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operating rate is at a low level [3] Downstream - Real Estate: Seasonal slight increase in commercial housing sales [4] - Services: Increase in domestic flight frequencies [4] Industry News Production Industry - The National Energy Administration has issued a guidance on promoting the integrated and integrated development of new energy, aiming to promote the coordinated development of new energy and multiple industries, including exploring the construction of computing facilities near offshore wind power bases [1] - The Ministry of Finance released the brief situation of national government procurement in 2024, with the total scale reaching 337.5043 billion yuan, and the scales of goods, engineering, and service procurement accounting for 23.54%, 41.01%, and 35.45% respectively [1] Service Industry - Seven departments including the Ministry of Education have issued an opinion on strengthening science and technology education in primary and secondary schools, setting goals for the development of science and technology education by 2030 and 2035 to support the construction of an education - powerful country [2] Price and Index Data | Industry | Indicator | Price/Index | Date | Y - o - Y Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 2161.4 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.40% | | | Spot price: Egg | 6.5 yuan/kg | 11/12 | 4.50% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 8700.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.68% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 14848.8 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.15% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 17.9 yuan/kg | 11/12 | - 0.94% | | | Spot price: Copper | 86896.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.71% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 22602.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.52% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Aluminum | 21686.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.10% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 120916.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.14% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 17425.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.61% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Rebar | 3126.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.36% | | | Spot price: Iron ore | 791.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 3302.5 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.08% | | | Spot price: Glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | 11/12 | 0.00% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 14766.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.03% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 773.3 | 11/12 | - 0.41% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 61.0 dollars/barrel | 11/12 | 0.79% | | | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 65.2 dollars/barrel | 11/12 | 1.12% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 4202.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 2.01% | | | Coal price: Coal | 832.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.46% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | 4635.5 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.76% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | 6976.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.50% | | | Spot price: Urea | 1615.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.10% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 1211.4 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.65% | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | 136.4 | 11/12 | - 0.16% | | | Building materials composite index | 112.2 points | 11/12 | 0.18% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 90.8 points | 11/12 | - 0.13% | [39]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has mandated a 4% reduction in domestic flight operations at 40 high-traffic airports, effective from 6 a.m. ET on Friday, due to safety concerns [1] Group 1 - The FAA's order affects 40 high-traffic airports across the United States [1] - The reduction in flight operations is aimed at enhancing safety measures in the aviation sector [1] - The implementation of this order begins at 6 a.m. ET (1100 GMT) on Friday [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, the 8th China International Import Expo was held in Shanghai from November 5th to 10th [1]. - In the service industry, the State Council issued the holiday arrangements for 2026 on November 4th, with the Spring Festival having a 9 - day holiday, and ticket search volumes on the platform soared. The central bank conducted a 700 billion - yuan 3 - month买断式逆回购 on November 5th [1]. - In the upstream market, liquefied natural gas and palm oil prices declined. In the mid - stream, PX and road asphalt开工 rates increased, and power plant coal inventories piled up. In the downstream, real - estate sales in first, second, and third - tier cities dropped, while domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industry Total Overview Upstream - Energy: Liquefied natural gas prices fell [2]. - Agriculture: Palm oil prices decreased [2]. Mid - stream - Chemical: PX开工 rate went up [2]. - Energy: Power plant coal inventories accumulated [2]. - Infrastructure: Road asphalt开工 rate rose slightly [2]. Downstream - Real estate: Commodity housing sales in first, second, and third - tier cities declined [2]. - Service: Domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [2]. Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: The prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, and pork decreased, while the price of cotton increased slightly [34]. - Non - ferrous metals: The prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and aluminum showed different trends, with copper prices falling and zinc and aluminum prices rising [34]. - Ferrous metals: The prices of iron ore, wire rod, and glass had different trends, with iron ore prices rising [34]. - Non - metals: The prices of natural rubber and the China Plastic City Price Index decreased [34]. - Energy: The prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas decreased, while coal prices increased [34]. - Chemicals: The prices of polyethylene, urea, and soda ash decreased, while the price of PTA increased slightly [34]. - Real estate: The building materials comprehensive index and the national concrete price index decreased [34].

Core Points - Eastern Airlines has shortened the check-in deadline for domestic flights at Nanchang Changbei International Airport to 25 minutes before departure for passengers without checked luggage, effective from November 1 [1] - This change follows a previous reduction in the check-in time from 40 minutes to 30 minutes in April of this year [3] Group 1: Operational Efficiency - Eastern Airlines Jiangxi Branch is continuously optimizing ground service processes and enhancing operational efficiency at Nanchang Changbei International Airport [2][3] - The reduction in check-in time is a critical measure to ensure the safety and punctuality of flights, as it allows for the completion of essential tasks such as baggage loading, passenger information verification, and flight data reporting [3] Group 2: Service Innovation - The company aims to provide more time for passengers by streamlining internal processes and enhancing collaboration among various roles [3] - Eastern Airlines Jiangxi Branch is committed to ongoing service innovation through refined and differentiated offerings to improve the travel experience for passengers [3]

Core Viewpoint - Starting from October 28, all domestic flights at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport will have their check-in deadlines shortened to 30 minutes before departure for passengers without checked luggage, with Spring Airlines further reducing this to 25 minutes for both checked and unchecked luggage [1] Group 1: Operational Changes - The check-in deadline for all domestic flights at Hongqiao Airport was previously set to 35 minutes before departure as of January this year [1] - The initiative is part of the Civil Aviation Administration's "Travel Time Reduction Project" aimed at enhancing passenger experience [1] Group 2: Service Enhancements - The reduction in check-in time is a key measure to support the successful hosting of the 8th China International Import Expo, ensuring a better travel experience for passengers [1] - The airport is collaborating with air traffic control and airlines to optimize flight connection processes [1] Group 3: Importance of Check-in Time - The check-in deadline is crucial for allowing sufficient time for the airport and airlines to complete over ten pre-flight tasks, ensuring safety and timely departures [1]

Core Points - Starting from October 28, all domestic flights operating at Hongqiao Airport will have their check-in deadline for passengers without checked luggage shortened to 30 minutes before departure [1] - For Spring Airlines domestic flights operating in Terminal 1 of Hongqiao Airport, the check-in deadline will be further reduced to 25 minutes, applicable to both passengers with and without checked luggage [1]

Core Viewpoint - Starting from October 28, all domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) at Hongqiao Airport will have their check-in cut-off time shortened to 30 minutes before departure for passengers without checked luggage [1] Group 1: Operational Changes - The cut-off time for Spring Airlines domestic flights operating in Terminal 1 of Hongqiao Airport will be further reduced to 25 minutes, applicable to both checked and unchecked luggage passengers [1] - The adjustments are part of efforts to optimize flight connection processes in anticipation of the upcoming 8th China International Import Expo, enhancing passenger experience by providing more time for check-in procedures [1]