Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the domestic travel and hotel industry during the 2026 Spring Festival, highlighting significant trends in both domestic and outbound tourism [1][2][3][6]. Key Points on Domestic Air Travel - Domestic flight supply during the 2026 Spring Festival contracted by 2%-3% year-on-year, which contributed to a demand increase [1][2]. - Air travel volume increased by approximately 14%-15% compared to the previous year, outperforming the overall market growth of 8%-9% [2][9]. - Ticket prices peaked around the seventh day of the festival, with a year-on-year increase of 6%-7%, and a maximum increase of 10% in the two weeks leading up to the festival [1][2]. Key Points on Domestic Hotel Industry - Hotel occupancy rates during the 2026 Spring Festival rose by about 17%-18% year-on-year, while prices slightly decreased by 1%-2% [1][3]. - High-star and mid-high star hotels achieved occupancy rates exceeding 75%, while budget hotels faced lower occupancy due to intense competition [7][17]. - The market is experiencing structural adjustments, with increased hotel supply in smaller cities and surrounding areas of major cities to meet dispersed demand [1][5]. Key Points on Outbound Tourism - The outbound tourism market showed significant recovery, with transportation and hotel volumes increasing by nearly 30% year-on-year [1][6]. - Airfare for outbound flights decreased by approximately 5% year-on-year, particularly for short-haul destinations in Southeast Asia, which have returned to 2019 levels [6][11]. - Hotel prices for outbound travel increased by about 5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the market [6]. Key Points on Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The extension of the Spring Festival holiday by one day positively impacted service consumption, with a notable increase in travel, accommodation, and transportation sectors [1][8][9]. - The overall booking volume increased by around 20% compared to the previous year, with a clear trend of staggered travel before and after the holiday [12]. Key Points on Future Outlook for the Hotel Industry - The hotel supply growth rate is expected to stabilize between 3%-5%, with a cautious outlook on new supply due to market saturation [4][13]. - Hotel prices are anticipated to stabilize and show positive growth starting from March 2026 or during the summer peak season [4][13]. - Structural issues persist in the low-star hotel segment, which faces significant competition and operational challenges, particularly in regions like Yunnan and Guizhou [14]. Key Points on Regulatory Environment and Competition - Ongoing government investigations into environmental practices may impact operators, with potential adjustments in exclusivity, pricing tools, and commission structures [15][16]. - Despite these regulatory challenges, major platforms are expected to maintain their market positions due to structural advantages [16]. - Hotel operators like Huazhu and Atour have shown stable performance during the festival, with cautious strategies in response to regulatory uncertainties [17].

Group 1 - Hainan Airlines will officially transition all domestic flights at Sanya Phoenix International Airport to the newly opened T3 terminal starting February 8, 2026, enhancing flight support capabilities and service quality in the Sanya region [1] - The T3 terminal is a significant expansion project during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period for Hainan's civil aviation and plays a crucial role in the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port airport cluster, featuring 40 check-in counters, 23 security channels, and 7 boarding bridges, which will significantly improve passenger travel efficiency [2] - Hainan Airlines has opened routes to 26 domestic cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou from Sanya, with an average of 35 flights per day, and is increasing the deployment of wide-body aircraft in response to the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak [2] Group 2 - As a local airline rooted in Hainan, Hainan Airlines aims to be a key hub and air gateway for the Hainan Free Trade Port, contributing to the region's global connectivity and resource aggregation [3] - The company plans to continue promoting its corporate culture centered on "Party Building" and will actively participate in the development of the Free Trade Port, enhancing global accessibility and providing a safe, convenient, and comfortable travel experience for passengers [3]

宏观日报 | 2026-02-06 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 上游价格回落，地产下游冷淡 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）工信部等八部门印发《中药工业高质量发展实施方案（2026—2030年）》，到2030年，中药工业全产 业链协同发展体系初步形成，重点中药原料持续稳定供应能力进一步增强，数智化、绿色化水平明显提升，一批 关键技术取得突破，产业协同创新水平显著提高。发展质量明显提高，中药工业规模效益稳步提升，产业集约化 程度明显提高，质量管理水平显著提升，培育一批引领带动能力突出的中药工业领航企业，培育60个高标准中药 原料生产基地。 服务行业：1）国家网信办等11部门联合印发《关于提升境外人员入境数字化服务便利性的实施意见》（以下简称 《实施意见》），旨在打通境外人员入境数字化服务堵点、卡点，建立互联互通、包容普惠、标准互认的数字化服 务体系，打造更加国际化、便利化的数字化服务环境，进一步扩大高水平对外开放，加快构建新发展格局。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）能源：国际油价和天然气小幅回调。2）农业 ...

宏观日报 | 2026-02-04 警惕上游价格回调风险 中观事件总览 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）有色：镍、铝价格持续回落。2）农业：鸡蛋价格回调。3）化工：化工品价格近期波动。 中游：1）化工：PX开工率高位。2）能源：电厂耗煤量低位。3）农业：生猪制品开工上行 下游：1）地产：一、二线城市商品房销售季节性回落。2）服务：国内航班班次上行。 生产行业：1）2026年中央一号文件2月3日发布，这也是"十五五"首个中央一号文件。《中共中央国务院关于锚定 农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》提出，锚定农业农村现代化，以推进乡村全面振兴为总抓手，以 学习运用"千万工程"经验为引领，以改革创新为根本动力，提高强农惠农富农政策效能，守牢国家粮食安全底线， 持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，提升乡村产业发展水平、乡村建设水平、乡村治理水平，努力把农业建成现代化大 产业、使农村基本具备现代生活条件、让农民生活更加富裕美好，为推进中国式现代化提供基础支撑。 服务行业：1）央行加量续作3个月期买断式逆回购，持续向市场注入中期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The prices of the upstream sectors in the chemical and agricultural industries are continuously rising, while the mid - stream and downstream sectors show different trends. There are also important policy releases and event warnings in the production and service industries [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Eight departments jointly issued the "Special Action Implementation Plan for 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'" to promote AI in the manufacturing process. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the China Meteorological Administration issued a snow disaster warning for facilities agriculture and animal husbandry in some regions from January 29 - 31 [1]. - **Service Industry**: Five departments in Shenzhen issued a three - year plan (2026 - 2028) to optimize the consumption environment, aiming to promote home consumption, improve the smart home industry ecosystem, and encourage the integration of home products with AI [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - **Chemical**: The prices of PTA and polyethylene are continuously rising [2]. - **Agriculture**: The prices of eggs and palm oil are rising [2]. - **Energy**: The international crude oil price has been increased [2]. 3.2.2. Mid - stream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [3]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants has decreased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt has declined [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 3.3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On January 28, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork showed year - on - year increases of 0.32%, 4.28%, 4.26%, 0.35%, and 0.75% respectively [40]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel had year - on - year increases of 1.40%, 4.33%, 2.29%, and 0.31% respectively, while one of the aluminum spot prices decreased by 0.66% [40]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of rebar, iron ore, and wire rod had year - on - year changes of - 0.49%, 0.41%, and - 0.87% respectively [40]. - **Non - metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of glass, natural rubber, and the China Plastic City price index had year - on - year increases of 1.56%, 3.42%, and 0.83% respectively [40]. - **Energy**: On January 28, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal had year - on - year changes of 3.36%, 2.57%, 2.16%, and - 0.25% respectively [40]. - **Chemical**: On January 28, the spot prices of PTA, polyethylene, urea, and soda ash had year - on - year changes of 4.10%, 3.70%, - 0.14%, and 0.00% respectively [40]. - **Real Estate**: On January 28, the cement price index, building materials composite index, and concrete price index had year - on - year changes of - 0.49%, - 0.32%, and 0.00% respectively [40].

Industry Overview Middle - View Events - In the production industry, Shanghai released the Action Plan for Strengthening the Linkage between Futures and Spot Markets to Enhance the Competitiveness of Non - ferrous Metal Commodities, aiming to improve resource allocation and global pricing influence [1]. - In the service industry, on January 20, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued a notice to support urban renewal, and six departments including the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax incentives for community - based family services from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [2]. Industry Data Upstream - In the chemical industry, the price of natural rubber declined slightly; in agriculture, the prices of eggs and pork continued to rise; in the non - ferrous metal industry, the prices of aluminum and copper decreased slightly [3]. Middle - stream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PX and urea were at a high level, while the operating rate of PTA remained low; in the energy industry, the coal consumption of power plants was at a low level [4]. Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in second - tier cities increased seasonally; in the service industry, the number of domestic flights decreased slightly [5]. Key Industry Price Indexes | Industry | Index Name | Price on 1/20 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2264.3 yuan/ton | 0.19% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.9 yuan/kg | 3.70% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8724.0 yuan/ton | 1.09% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15864.2 yuan/ton | - 0.45% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.5 yuan/kg | 2.21% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 100660.0 yuan/ton | - 1.70% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24324.0 yuan/ton | 0.06% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 23700.0 yuan/ton | - 2.50% | | | Spot price of nickel | 145633.3 yuan/ton | - 0.74% | | Black metals | Spot price of aluminum | 17081.3 yuan/ton | - 1.41% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3215.3 yuan/ton | - 0.99% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 824.4 yuan/ton | - 1.77% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3465.0 yuan/ton | - 0.93% | | Non - metals | Spot price of glass | 12.9 yuan/square meter | - 0.23% | | | Spot price of natural rubber | 15475.0 yuan/ton | - 2.47% | | | China Plastics City price index | 776.1 | 0.86% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 59.3 dollars/barrel | - 0.27% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 63.8 dollars/barrel | - 0.17% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3526.0 yuan/ton | - 1.18% | | | Coal price | 805.0 yuan/ton | 1.13% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 5009.3 yuan/ton | - 1.94% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6810.0 yuan/ton | 0.54% | | | Spot price of urea | 1767.5 yuan/ton | 1.14% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1204.3 yuan/ton | - 0.82% | | Real estate | Cement price index: national | 134.5 | - 0.30% | | | Building materials composite index | 115.3 points | - 0.41% | | | Concrete price index: national index | 90.2 points | - 0.25% | [34]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View The report focuses on the differentiation in the mid - stream industries and suggests paying attention to the release of downstream consumption. It presents recent events in the production and service industries, and analyzes the price and operation status of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries [1]. Detailed Summary by Directory 1. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: From January 15th to 16th, China Aero - Engine's "Taihang 7", "Taihang 15", and "Taihang 110" gas turbine innovation and development demonstration projects passed the evaluation and acceptance of the National Energy Administration, which will drive the industrialization and commercialization of China's gas turbine industry [1]. - **Service Industry**: As of January 17th, 2026, since the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18th, 2025, Haikou Customs supervised 4.86 billion yuan in off - island duty - free shopping, a 46.8% year - on - year increase; 745,000 shopping visitors, a 30.2% increase; and 3.494 million shopping items, a 14.6% increase [1]. 2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Copper prices declined slightly; egg and pork prices rebounded; PTA prices dropped [2]. - **Mid - stream**: PX and urea in the chemical industry maintained high operating rates; power plant coal consumption was at a low level [3]. - **Downstream**: Second - tier city commercial housing sales increased seasonally; domestic flight frequencies decreased slightly [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On January 19th, the spot price of corn was 2,262.9 yuan/ton (up 0.38% year - on - year), eggs 7.9 yuan/kg (up 8.28%), palm oil 8,620 yuan/ton (down 2.31%), cotton 15,889.3 yuan/ton (up 0.74%), and the average wholesale price of pork 18.5 yuan/kg (up 2.33%) [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 19th, the spot price of copper was 101,140 yuan/ton (down 2.07%), zinc 24,402 yuan/ton (up 1.16%), aluminum 23,890 yuan/ton (down 1.98%), and nickel 146,416.7 yuan/ton (up 0.46%) [36]. - **Black Metals**: On January 19th, the spot price of rebar was 3,232.3 yuan/ton (down 0.42%), iron ore 833.9 yuan/ton (down 1.03%), wire rod 3,480 yuan/ton (down 0.50%), and glass 12.9 yuan/square meter (down 0.23%) [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 19th, the spot price of natural rubber was 15,583.3 yuan/ton (down 1.48%), and the China Plastics City price index was 775.7 (up 1.34%) [36]. - **Energy**: On January 19th, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 59.3 US dollars/barrel (up 0.37%), Brent crude oil 64.1 US dollars/barrel (up 1.25%), liquefied natural gas 3,514 yuan/ton (down 0.90%), and coal 803 yuan/ton (up 0.88%) [36]. - **Chemical Industry**: On January 19th, the spot price of PTA was 5,019.8 yuan/ton (down 2.02%), polyethylene 6,840 yuan/ton (up 2.47%), urea 1,767.5 yuan/ton (up 1.29%), and soda ash 1,214.3 yuan/ton (down 0.35%) [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 19th, the national cement price index was 134.5 (down 0.44% year - on - year), the building materials composite index increased by 0.03%, and the national concrete price index decreased by 0.18% [36].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The downstream industry is showing signs of recovery, and attention should be paid to foreign trade policy adjustments [1] - The upstream energy prices have slightly corrected, agricultural egg prices have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metal prices of aluminum and nickel have continued to rise [3] - In the midstream, PX prices are at a high level while polyester operating rates are low, and power plant coal consumption has decreased [4] - Downstream, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have rebounded beyond seasonality, and the number of domestic flights has continued to increase [5] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Middle - view Event Overview Production Industry - On January 12, regarding China's export of rare earths to Japan, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that relevant measures are taken in accordance with laws and regulations [1] - Also on January 12, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products believes that the "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on Chinese electric vehicles is conducive to the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain [1] Service Industry - The State Administration for Market Regulation will conduct an investigation and evaluation on the market competition of the food delivery platform service industry due to issues such as subsidy and price competition [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices have slightly corrected [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices have rebounded significantly [3] - Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum and nickel prices have continued to rise [3] Midstream - Chemical industry: PX prices are high, and polyester operating rates are low [4] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption has decreased [4] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have rebounded beyond seasonality [5] - Service: The number of domestic flights has continued to increase [5] 3. Key Industry Price Indicators - On January 12, prices of various products showed different trends, such as a 7.20% year - on - year increase in egg prices, a 4.49% increase in aluminum prices, and a 3.14% increase in WTI crude oil prices [38]

Industry Overview - Concerns on the expansion of mid - stream AI technology [1] - Upstream: Liquefied natural gas and international crude oil prices fluctuate slightly; nickel prices rise significantly [3] - Mid - stream: PX chemical product's operating rate increases, while other chemical products have low operating rates; power plant coal consumption rises [3] - Downstream: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities recover; the number of domestic flights increases [3] Industry Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other eight departments issued the Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing", aiming to achieve safe and reliable supply of key core AI technologies by 2027, with the industry scale and enabling level ranking among the world's top [1] - The People's Bank of China will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on January 8, 2026, with a term of 3 months, to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1] Key Data (Prices and Indices) | Industry | Indicator | Price/Index (1/7) | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2248.6 yuan/ton | - 0.06% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.6 yuan/kg | 3.45% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8530.0 yuan/ton | - 0.40% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15770.5 yuan/ton | 1.42% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.0 yuan/kg | 2.05% | | | Spot price of copper | 103571.7 yuan/ton | 2.49% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24284.0 yuan/ton | 3.77% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 24160.0 yuan/ton | 7.42% | | | Spot price of nickel | 151183.3 yuan/ton | 13.46% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 17593.8 yuan/ton | 0.93% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3241.7 yuan/ton | 0.26% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 817.8 yuan/ton | 0.14% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3505.0 yuan/ton | 0.86% | | | Spot price of glass | 12.8 yuan/square meter | 0.39% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 15941.7 yuan/ton | 3.91% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 754.7 | 0.37% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 57.1 dollars/barrel | - 1.42% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 60.7 dollars/barrel | - 1.03% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3230.0 yuan/ton | - 2.18% | | | Coal price | 796.0 yuan/ton | - 0.38% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 5126.8 yuan/ton | 1.60% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6500.0 yuan/ton | 1.88% | | | Spot price of urea | 1730.0 yuan/ton | - 0.14% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1214.3 yuan/ton | - 0.93% | | Real estate | Cement price index (national) | 135.6 | - 0.04% | | | Building materials composite index | 115.6 points | 0.03% | | | Concrete price index (national) | 90.4 points | 0.00% | [34]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 72.04%, up by 0.96% from the previous week[7] - The blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.07%, down by 1.1% from the previous week[7] - The PTA operating rate rose to 73.81%, an increase of 2.64% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped to ¥46.3 million, a decrease of ¥19.3 million from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased to 75,191.05 units, up by 1,179.15 units from the previous week[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars rose to 95,414.30 units, an increase of 2,478.45 units from the previous week[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 232.67 million square meters, an increase of 28.08 million square meters from the previous week[7] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased to 1,610.75 million square meters, down by 922.36 million square meters from the previous week[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 2.78%, up by 1.9% from the previous week[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1,403.13, an increase of 9.57 from the previous week[8] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to ¥17.83 per kilogram, down by ¥0.08 from the previous week[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products improved, with the wholesale price index rising to 126.77, an increase of 1.28 from the previous week[8] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased to 814.39 million trips, down by 177.39 million from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 12,490.57 flights, down by 24.71 from the previous week[8]