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对等关税大限将至【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-07-05 08:02
Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold prices will experience fluctuations, while copper and oil prices are expected to trend upwards [1][12]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales have seen a narrowing decline, with a significant drop in second-hand home sales, while retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown improvement [3][4]. - The service sector continues to show seasonal improvement, with increased movie ticket sales and hotel revenues compared to last year [4]. Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - The expiration of tariff exemptions is approaching, with preliminary agreements reached between the U.S. and Vietnam, while other major economies have not yet reached consensus [5][6]. - Concerns over the expiration of tariff exemptions have led to low container bookings in the U.S., although there has been a rebound in port calls in traditional transshipment trade areas [7]. Group 4: Production Insights - The steel demand remains weak, but recent government meetings have aimed at curbing low-price competition, which has positively influenced market sentiment and led to a slight increase in rebar prices [9]. - Glass prices, which have been low for an extended period, have started to recover due to supply-side production cuts [10]. Group 5: Price Movements - There has been a general recovery in commodity prices, with domestic cement prices continuing to decline, while rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices have rebounded [11][12].
宏观经济高频数据统计周报-20250617
宏观经济 高频数据统计周报 2025.6.9-2025.6.15 分析师: 沈凡超 中央编号: BTT231 联系电话: 852-4623 5564 邮箱: hector@cnzsqh.hk 1 2 l 宏观经济高频数据一览表 l 生产端 l 消费端 l 地产基建 l 进出口 l 物价通胀 l 交通运输 宏观经济 高频数据一览表 目录 3 宏观经济高频数据一览表 | 指标名称 数据频率 | | 更新时间 | 最新值 | 前值 | 环比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生产 | | | | | | | 焦炉开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 73.94 | 74. 91 | e -0.97 | | 高炉开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 83. 39 | 83. 54 | P -0. 15 | | PX开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 86. 31 | 86. 61 | P -0. 30 | | PTA开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 83 | 82. 74 | দম 0. 26 | | ...