证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 03 月 03 日 生产端看，开工率、产能利用率边际降温，工业品库存抬升。开工率方 面，2 月，247 家高炉开工率均值 79.98%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉 开工率、螺纹钢开工率、水泥磨机运转率分别为 36.96%、33.21%、 19.28，低于上月均值。化工品方面，石油沥青开工率均值、PTA 开工率 均值分别为 22.53%、75.58%，均低于上月；纯碱、PVC、分别为 80.48%、84.49%，均较上月略微提升。库存方面，螺纹钢、冷轧、热 卷、铁矿石、浮法玻璃库存较上月抬升，环比增速分别为 24.59%、 9.23%、11.37%、2.44%、13.35%；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回 落，环比增速为-6.24%、-30.05%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略 上升，录得 77.20%；电炉产能利用率为 36.34%，较上期大幅下降；水泥 熟料能利用率较上月下滑，录得 38.61%；浮法玻璃产能利用率下降，录 得 75.35%。 需求端看，地产成交面积同环比负增，地产销售较弱；消费方面，受春节 假期影响，居民出行结构阶段性切换，快递揽收量下降，电影票房 ...

每经AI快讯，2月17日，据灯塔专业版，截至2月17日8时21分，2026大年初一(2月17日)大盘票房突破6 亿。 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: January 19, 2026 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC ID: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC ID: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data focuses: production end shows a differentiated heat, with the decline in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, and PTA, and the increase in the operating rates of asphalt, PX, and tires; the floor area of commercial housing transactions continues to decline while the land supply area slightly increases; price trends are also differentiated, with slight increases in the prices of crude oil, zinc, and rebar, and copper prices rising and then falling; the overall price of agricultural products continues to decline, but the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits all increase. In the short term, pay attention to the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordination policies [3][32] Section Summaries Production - Steel: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.14 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 0.74 tons in the week of January 16. The inventory also decreased by 5.27 tons [9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate continued to rise by 1.8 pct from a low level in the week of January 14 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate increased by 1.25 pct, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.65 pct on January 15 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 4.91 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 7.55 pct in the week of January 15 [10] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of January 11, the floor area of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 107.21 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 39.32 square meters, and the premium rate of residential land transactions increased by 0.62 pct [13] - Movie Box Office: It decreased by 711 million yuan in the week of January 11 [13] - Automobile: In the week of January 11, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 92,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 175,200 vehicles [17] - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of January 16, the SCFI index decreased by 4.45%, the CCFI index increased by 1.25%, and the BDI index decreased by 7.17% and has been falling rapidly since the peak in early December last year [20] Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price rose by 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, while the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.34% to 1,184 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.5%, - 0.06%, and + 1.76% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 0.86% on January 16 [22] - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to decline, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices decreasing by 0.37%. However, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.56%, 3.31%, 0.18%, and 1.91% respectively compared with the previous week on January 16 [25] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, the seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume decreased by 484,700 and 287,100 person - times respectively on January 16 [28] - Flight Operations: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight operations increased by 405.29 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.14 flights, and international flights decreased by 18.86 flights [30] - Urban Traffic: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [30]

Production Side - In December, the operating rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 78.88% and 60.10%, respectively, both lower than the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 38.03%, and the grinding machine operating rate was 31.72%, both showing a decline from last month[3] - The average operating rates for PVC and PTA were 78.73% and 73.75%, respectively, indicating a general decrease in chemical product operating rates[3] - The inventory levels for asphalt, rebar, cold-rolled, hot-rolled, and float glass showed a decrease, with respective month-on-month growth rates of -3.77%, -10.26%, -4.73%, -6.82%[3] Demand Side - The average transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 22.48% month-on-month but decreased by 31.93% year-on-year[4] - The average transaction area for land in 100 cities increased by 93.96% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.50%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 61,883 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.18% and a year-on-year decline of 26.34%[4] - The average box office revenue for movies was 675 million yuan, down 7.67% month-on-month but up 45.47% year-on-year[4] Price Side - The wholesale price index for agricultural products increased by 3.32% month-on-month and 6.94% year-on-year, with notable increases in vegetable and fruit prices[5] - The price of gasoline and diesel saw year-on-year declines of 6.82% and 5.20%, respectively[6] - The price of copper and aluminum increased by 5.28% and 1.26% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 21.31% and 7.28%[6]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate is at 70.33%, down by 0.15% from the previous week[7] - The blast furnace operating rate is at 78.3%, also down by 0.15% from the previous week[7] - The PX operating rate decreased to 88.40%, a decline of 0.81%[7] - The PTA operating rate is at 72.84%, down by 0.97%[7] - The full steel tire operating rate is at 61.95%, a decrease of 2.19%[7] - The semi-steel tire operating rate increased to 72.05%, up by 0.66%[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue reached 751 million yuan, an increase of 3.4 million yuan from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 77,378.5 units, up by 1,567.2 units[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 96,624 units, an increase of 2,044.55 units[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 301.91 million square meters, up by 44.90% from the previous week[7] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in major cities increased to 218,053.72 square meters, up by 9,046.58 square meters[7] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased to 3,073.04 million square meters, down by 1,417.45 million square meters[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 2.14%, up by 0.94%[7] Trade and Transportation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1,656.32, an increase of 103.40[8] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,877.00, a decrease of 244.00[8] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 17.67 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.11 yuan[8] - The average wholesale price of vegetables decreased to 5.68 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.15 yuan[8] - The average daily number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) reached 12,430.43, an increase of 225.71 flights[8]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate decreased to 71.90%, down by 0.76% from the previous week[8] - The blast furnace operating rate fell to 78.61%, a decline of 1.53% compared to the prior week[8] - The operating rate for full steel tires increased to 64.07%, up by 0.57% from the previous week[8] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue surged to 211,100,000 CNY, an increase of 164,800,000 CNY from the previous week[8] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased to 77,354.4 units, down by 1,207.15 units from the previous week[8] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars dropped to 100,053.7 units, a decline of 1,767.10 units compared to the previous week[8] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 200.86 million square meters, an increase of 24.09% from the previous week[8] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities was 2,921.84 million square meters, up by 181.29 million square meters from the previous week[8] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 2.52%, up by 0.52% from the previous week[8] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose to 1,506.46, an increase of 108.83 from the previous week[9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products improved, with the wholesale price index for agricultural products at 130.36, up by 1.38 from the previous week[9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a decline in commodity prices, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 298.29, down by 7.68 from the previous week[9] Transportation - The Beijing subway passenger volume increased to 989.41 million trips, up by 27.52 million from the previous week[9] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) was 12,096.14, a decrease of 206.43 from the previous week[9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fixed - income Fundamental High - frequency Index is stable, with the current period at 129.0 points (previous value 128.9 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 6.2 points. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with the signal factor at 3.6% (previous value 3.7%) [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Total Index - The Guosheng Fixed - income Fundamental High - frequency Index is stable. The current index is 129.0 points, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.6, with a year - on - year increase of 5.1 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. PTA开工率 increased to 73.8% from the previous 71.9% [2][10][16]. Real Estate Sales - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 41.1, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.3 points, and the decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased to 30.20,000 square meters from the previous 31.20,000 square meters [2][10][26]. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.3, with a year - on - year increase of 8.9 points, and the growth rate narrows. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased slightly to 27.9% from the previous 27.8% [2][10][40]. Exports - The export high - frequency index is 143.7, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6 points, and the growth rate narrows. The CCFI index decreased slightly to 1114.9 points from the previous 1121.8 points [2][10][42]. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.8, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. The average daily box office of movies increased to 26,095 million yuan from the previous 15,036 million yuan [2][10][51]. CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value 0.0%). The prices of vegetables and white - striped chickens increased slightly. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables rose to 5.9 yuan/kg from the previous 5.8 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens rose to 17.8 yuan/kg from the previous 17.5 yuan/kg [2][10][58]. PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.2% (previous value 0.1%). The spot prices of copper and aluminum continued to rise. The LME copper spot settlement price increased to 11,428 US dollars/ton from the previous 10,917 US dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum spot settlement price increased to 2,858 US dollars/ton from the previous 2,803 US dollars/ton [2][10][62]. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index is 133.2, with a year - on - year increase of 10.8 points, and the growth rate expands. However, the logistics performance declined. The metro passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased to 38.71 million person - times from the previous 39.97 million person - times, the highway logistics freight rate index decreased to 1053 points from the previous 1066 points, and the number of domestic flights decreased to 12,359 flights from the previous 12,484 flights [3][11][74]. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 163.3, with a year - on - year increase of 7.6 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. The electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to rise to 163,000 tons from the previous 147,000 tons [3][11][81]. Financing - The financing high - frequency index is 244.0, with a year - on - year increase of 30.7 points, and the growth rate expands. However, the financing of local government bonds and credit bonds declined. The net financing of local government bonds decreased to 60.5 billion yuan from the previous 325.9 billion yuan, and the net financing of credit bonds decreased to 58 billion yuan from the previous 120.7 billion yuan [3][11][93].

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 72.04%, up by 0.96% from the previous week[7] - The blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.07%, down by 1.1% from the previous week[7] - The PTA operating rate rose to 73.81%, an increase of 2.64% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped to ¥46.3 million, a decrease of ¥19.3 million from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased to 75,191.05 units, up by 1,179.15 units from the previous week[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars rose to 95,414.30 units, an increase of 2,478.45 units from the previous week[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 232.67 million square meters, an increase of 28.08 million square meters from the previous week[7] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased to 1,610.75 million square meters, down by 922.36 million square meters from the previous week[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 2.78%, up by 1.9% from the previous week[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1,403.13, an increase of 9.57 from the previous week[8] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to ¥17.83 per kilogram, down by ¥0.08 from the previous week[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products improved, with the wholesale price index rising to 126.77, an increase of 1.28 from the previous week[8] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased to 814.39 million trips, down by 177.39 million from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 12,490.57 flights, down by 24.71 from the previous week[8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the box office in the market surpassed 500 million yuan in a single day on November 29, marking the second occurrence of this milestone since February 22, 279 days ago [1] Group 2 - The data is sourced from Maoyan Professional Edition, indicating a significant recovery or growth in the box office performance within the industry [1] - The achievement of breaking the 500 million yuan mark again suggests a positive trend in audience turnout and film consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - The box office has surpassed 700 million yuan today, marking the second time this year that daily box office revenue has exceeded this threshold since February 16 [1] Group 1 - As of November 29, at 18:59, the total box office for the day reached over 700 million yuan [1]