证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 12 月 31 日 12 月高频数据跟踪 2025.12.25 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： 生产端看，开工率整体偏弱，工业品普遍去库，产能利用率略有降温。开 工率方面，12 月，247 家高炉开工率、电炉开工率分别为 78.88%、 60.10%，均低于上月。螺纹钢开工率、磨机开工率分别为 38.03%、 31.72%，均较上月回落；汽车全、半钢胎开工率出现降温，分别录得 63.42%、71.48%；化工品开工率普遍下降：PVC、PTA 开工率均值分别 为 78.73%、73.75%。石油沥青开工率为 28.65%，较上月抬升。水泥磨 机运转率环比下降，录得 31.72%。库存方面，沥青、螺纹钢、冷轧、热 卷、浮法玻璃普遍去库，环比增速分别为-3.77%、-10.26%、-4.73、- 6.82%；水泥库容比、发运率回落，环比分别为-6.31、-6.07%；浮法 ...

2 l 宏观经济高频数据一览表 l 生产端 l 消费端 l 地产基建 l 进出口 l 物价通胀 l 交通运输 宏观经济 高频数据一览表 宏观经济 高频数据统计周报 2025.12.22-2025.12.28 分析师： 蒋开来 中央编号： BWL381 联系电话： 852-6430 1060 邮箱： jiangkl@cnzsqh.hk 1 目录 3 宏观经济高频数据一览表 | 指标名称 数据频率 | | | 更新时间 | 最新值 | 前值 | | 环比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生产 | | | | | | | | | 焦炉开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025/12/26 | 70. 33 | 70. 48 | e | -0.15 | | 高炉开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025/12/26 | 78. 3 | 78. 45 | P | -0. 15 | | PX开工率(%) | | 周频 | 2025/12/29 | 88. 40 | 89.21 | 3 | -0. 81 | | PTA开工率(%) | | 周频 | ...

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate decreased to 71.90%, down by 0.76% from the previous week[8] - The blast furnace operating rate fell to 78.61%, a decline of 1.53% compared to the prior week[8] - The operating rate for full steel tires increased to 64.07%, up by 0.57% from the previous week[8] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue surged to 211,100,000 CNY, an increase of 164,800,000 CNY from the previous week[8] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased to 77,354.4 units, down by 1,207.15 units from the previous week[8] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars dropped to 100,053.7 units, a decline of 1,767.10 units compared to the previous week[8] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 200.86 million square meters, an increase of 24.09% from the previous week[8] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities was 2,921.84 million square meters, up by 181.29 million square meters from the previous week[8] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 2.52%, up by 0.52% from the previous week[8] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose to 1,506.46, an increase of 108.83 from the previous week[9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products improved, with the wholesale price index for agricultural products at 130.36, up by 1.38 from the previous week[9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a decline in commodity prices, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 298.29, down by 7.68 from the previous week[9] Transportation - The Beijing subway passenger volume increased to 989.41 million trips, up by 27.52 million from the previous week[9] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) was 12,096.14, a decrease of 206.43 from the previous week[9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fixed - income Fundamental High - frequency Index is stable, with the current period at 129.0 points (previous value 128.9 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 6.2 points. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with the signal factor at 3.6% (previous value 3.7%) [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Total Index - The Guosheng Fixed - income Fundamental High - frequency Index is stable. The current index is 129.0 points, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.6, with a year - on - year increase of 5.1 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. PTA开工率 increased to 73.8% from the previous 71.9% [2][10][16]. Real Estate Sales - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 41.1, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.3 points, and the decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased to 30.20,000 square meters from the previous 31.20,000 square meters [2][10][26]. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.3, with a year - on - year increase of 8.9 points, and the growth rate narrows. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased slightly to 27.9% from the previous 27.8% [2][10][40]. Exports - The export high - frequency index is 143.7, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6 points, and the growth rate narrows. The CCFI index decreased slightly to 1114.9 points from the previous 1121.8 points [2][10][42]. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.8, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. The average daily box office of movies increased to 26,095 million yuan from the previous 15,036 million yuan [2][10][51]. CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value 0.0%). The prices of vegetables and white - striped chickens increased slightly. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables rose to 5.9 yuan/kg from the previous 5.8 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens rose to 17.8 yuan/kg from the previous 17.5 yuan/kg [2][10][58]. PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.2% (previous value 0.1%). The spot prices of copper and aluminum continued to rise. The LME copper spot settlement price increased to 11,428 US dollars/ton from the previous 10,917 US dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum spot settlement price increased to 2,858 US dollars/ton from the previous 2,803 US dollars/ton [2][10][62]. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index is 133.2, with a year - on - year increase of 10.8 points, and the growth rate expands. However, the logistics performance declined. The metro passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased to 38.71 million person - times from the previous 39.97 million person - times, the highway logistics freight rate index decreased to 1053 points from the previous 1066 points, and the number of domestic flights decreased to 12,359 flights from the previous 12,484 flights [3][11][74]. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 163.3, with a year - on - year increase of 7.6 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. The electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to rise to 163,000 tons from the previous 147,000 tons [3][11][81]. Financing - The financing high - frequency index is 244.0, with a year - on - year increase of 30.7 points, and the growth rate expands. However, the financing of local government bonds and credit bonds declined. The net financing of local government bonds decreased to 60.5 billion yuan from the previous 325.9 billion yuan, and the net financing of credit bonds decreased to 58 billion yuan from the previous 120.7 billion yuan [3][11][93].

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 72.04%, up by 0.96% from the previous week[7] - The blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.07%, down by 1.1% from the previous week[7] - The PTA operating rate rose to 73.81%, an increase of 2.64% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped to ¥46.3 million, a decrease of ¥19.3 million from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased to 75,191.05 units, up by 1,179.15 units from the previous week[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars rose to 95,414.30 units, an increase of 2,478.45 units from the previous week[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 232.67 million square meters, an increase of 28.08 million square meters from the previous week[7] - The land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased to 1,610.75 million square meters, down by 922.36 million square meters from the previous week[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities increased to 2.78%, up by 1.9% from the previous week[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1,403.13, an increase of 9.57 from the previous week[8] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to ¥17.83 per kilogram, down by ¥0.08 from the previous week[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products improved, with the wholesale price index rising to 126.77, an increase of 1.28 from the previous week[8] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased to 814.39 million trips, down by 177.39 million from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) decreased to 12,490.57 flights, down by 24.71 from the previous week[8]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，据猫眼专业版数据，11月29日大盘单日票房突破5亿元，继2月22日后时隔279天大盘单日 票房再破5亿元。 ...

每经AI快讯，据灯塔专业版，截至11月29日18时59分，今日大盘票房已突破7亿元，也是继今年2月16 日后，单日大盘票房再破7亿元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week's main concerns include a slight rebound in the week-on-week new home sales in 20 cities, a widening year-on-year decline, and only Hangzhou's new home sales were higher than the same period last year. Overall, the real estate sales remained weak. Commodity prices mostly rose, the production remained stable with a differentiated performance in the operating rates. The box office was significantly higher than the seasonal level due to the release of popular movies, which concentratedly reflected the viewing demand [2]. - The year-on-year decline in new home sales widened this week. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Specifically, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices rose. The price of rebar increased slightly, with robust demand, steel mills reducing production, and merchants reluctant to sell, which supported the price increase. The cement price increased slightly as the weather improved, construction accelerated, and manufacturers pushed up the price, but the demand support was limited. The glass futures price rose, with an enhanced expectation of supply contraction, solid cost support, and short - term improvement in production and sales. The asphalt price decreased slightly due to the seasonal shrinkage of demand, sufficient supply, and weakened cost - end support [2]. - In industrial production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the travel momentum was strong. The subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile consumption, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [2]. - In terms of inflation, the pork price decreased, the vegetable price and oil price increased. This week, the vegetable price increased due to cold weather and rainfall leading to vegetable production reduction and poor supply connection. The crude oil price increased, driven by the expected production cut by OPEC+, the decline in US production, and geopolitical risks [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI increased this week. The transportation demand on the East Coast of the United States route rebounded, shipping companies promoted freight rate increases, and the operating cost provided support [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Remained Weak Year-on-Year - From November 21st to November 27th, the new home transactions decreased week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline widened. The week-on-week growth rate of the new home transaction area in 20 cities tracked by Wind was 3.08%, and the year-on-year decline was 33.38%. Among them, the new home transaction area in second-tier cities was slightly weaker than the previous period, while those in first-tier and third - fourth - tier cities were stronger than the previous period. The year-on-year decline widened significantly, and the new home transaction areas in all tiers of cities were much weaker than the same period last year [2][7]. - In terms of key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Beijing (-32.88%), Shenzhen (-28.09%), and Hangzhou (-1.38%), the new home transactions in other key cities were significantly stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, except for Hangzhou (18.73%), the new home transaction areas in other key cities were much weaker than the same period last year [7]. - From November 21st to November 27th, the second - hand home transactions showed a differentiated week-on-week performance, and the year-on-year decline widened. In key cities, from a week-on-week perspective, except for Hangzhou (-1.46%) and Shenzhen (-7.75%), the second - hand home transaction areas in other key cities were stronger than the previous period. From a year-on-year perspective, the second - hand home transaction areas in all key cities decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [7]. 2. Investment: Commodity Prices Mostly Rose - In terms of investment, most commodity prices rose this week. The prices of rebar and cement increased slightly, the glass futures price rose, and the asphalt price decreased slightly [31]. 3. Production: Operating Rates Showed a Differentiated Performance - In production, the operating rates showed a differentiated performance this week. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and automobile tires increased, the operating rate of coking enterprises increased slightly, while the operating rates of steel blast furnaces and PTA decreased, and the operating rate of polyester filament decreased slightly [39]. 4. Consumption: Travel Momentum was Strong - In terms of consumption, the subway ridership, domestic flights, automobile sales, and box office were higher than the seasonal levels [49]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Increased - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased slightly, the BDI index increased, the port cargo throughput decreased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly this week [55]. 6. Prices: Pork Price Decreased, Vegetable Price Increased, Oil Price Increased - In terms of prices, the pork price decreased slightly, the vegetable price increased, the oil price increased, and the rebar price increased slightly [60].

Group 1: Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) reached 1.28 on November 11, 2025, an increase of 0.09 from November 4 [1][4] - Industrial indicators such as the "Coastal Coal Freight Index" and "Imported Dry Bulk Freight Index" rose by 0.26 and 0.14 respectively, contributing significantly to the YHEI increase [1][4] Group 2: Price Indices - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2][41] - Core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [2][41] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][42] Group 3: Monetary Policy - As of November 11, the central bank net withdrew 627.5 billion yuan through open market operations [6][7] - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations amounted to 823.7 billion yuan, with 1-week reverse repo rates at 1.4% [6][7] Group 4: Interest Rates and Financing - The overnight interbank rate rose by 19 basis points to 1.55% over the past week [11][12] - The 1-year and 10-year government bond yields increased by 1.22 and 1.35 basis points to 1.4% and 1.81% respectively [11][17] Group 5: Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.31%, 22.66%, and 0.54% respectively [33][35] - Second-hand housing transactions showed a divergence, with first and second-tier cities declining while third-tier cities increased by 16.93% [33][37] Group 6: Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell by 0.73 points to 99.48, while the RMB appreciated by 26 basis points to 7.1207 against the dollar [44][45] - The S&P Commodity Index rose by 1.79% to 4004.03, with energy and industrial metals indices increasing by 2.52% and 0.86% respectively [44]

Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales have seen an expanded decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.4% in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities as of November 9 [7] - In October 2025, nationwide retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from the second half of 2024 and tightening of trade-in policies [8] - The price of live pigs has turned downward, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.1%, while domestic staple grain prices continue to rise [10] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to maintain high prosperity, with the average spot price of DRAM memory reaching $3.336, up 2.2% week-on-week, driven by AI infrastructure demand [20] - Semiconductor sales in China reached $18.69 billion in September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [22] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant growth, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 13.0% week-on-week as of November 7 [45] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have surged, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port reaching 817 yuan per ton, up 6.1% week-on-week, marking a new high for the year [46] - International metal prices have declined, with SHFE copper and aluminum prices at 85,900 yuan and 21,600 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.2% and an increase of 1.5% [50] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger demand has decreased on a month-on-month basis, with subway passenger volume down 1.9% week-on-week but up 3.4% year-on-year [59] - Freight logistics demand has also declined, with nationwide highway truck traffic down 2.1% week-on-week, while railway freight volume increased by 3.9% [62] - Port throughput has shown fluctuations, with container throughput at 6.809 million TEUs, up 1.4% week-on-week [65]