面对直播平台的竞争、缺乏卖座电影大片、租金高昂以及观众消费习惯转变等重重挑战，香港戏院行业 正经历整合于本年度，香港市场有逾十家戏院倒闭。根据香港票房有限公司发布的统计数据，年度香港 票房收入按年下降5.1%至12亿港元。监于行业低迷，香港政府推出推广活动，包括戏院日及10.1半价睇 好戏，以及若干电影制作扶持计划，以支持行业发展。 格隆汇9月25日丨英皇文化产业(00491.HK)公告，2024/2025年度全年业绩，集团于年度总收入仅轻微下 跌至4.8亿港元。集团于中国内地及香港市场的票房收入于年度分别轻微下跌0.5%及4.7%，而两个市场 的整体票房收入同期则分别下跌8.8%及5.1%，反映集团的票房收入优于行业整体。 主要由于减值拨备大幅减少至2980万港元(2024年：4.3亿港元)，以及集团实施有效的成本控制措施，集 团于年度录得利息、税项、折旧及摊销前利润5460万港元(2024年：利息、税项、折旧及摊销前亏损 4.16亿港元)，以及其净亏损大幅收窄至1.4亿港元(2024年：7.15亿港元)。每股基本亏损为0.04港元(2024 年：0.22港元)。 ...

Core Insights - The box office for 2025 has surpassed 40 billion yuan, reaching this milestone in 256 days, which is 76 days earlier than the previous year [1] Industry Summary - The current box office performance indicates a strong growth trend in the film industry, suggesting increased consumer spending and interest in cinema [1] - The early achievement of the 40 billion yuan mark may reflect positive market conditions and effective marketing strategies within the industry [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that as of mid-August, the upstream resource industry is experiencing an upward trend in prosperity, while the midstream manufacturing sector shows a mixed performance, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, coal, basic chemicals, and oil and petrochemicals improving continuously [4] - In the downstream consumption sector, there is a divergence in performance; the social services and home appliance industries are on the rise, while the commercial retail sector is declining. In essential consumption, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, food and beverage, and textile and apparel industries are generally experiencing a downturn [4] - Supportive service industries and the financial sector are overall declining, with the environmental protection industry within supportive services also showing a downturn. However, the banking sector is improving, and the non-bank financial sector is on the rise, while the computer sector within the TMT industry is declining [4] Group 2 - The report tracks excess returns in various industries, including basic chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and construction materials, providing correlation data with high-frequency indicators [5][10][17][31][36][39][46][77] - The basic chemicals industry shows a strong correlation with various commodity prices, indicating potential investment opportunities based on price movements [6][9][17] - The steel industry is closely linked to production and inventory metrics, suggesting that monitoring these indicators can provide insights into future performance [10][12][14] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of tracking excess returns in the automotive industry, with indicators such as daily sales and production rates being critical for understanding market dynamics [48][50] - The machinery equipment sector's performance is analyzed through various price indices, indicating a need for investors to pay attention to these metrics for better investment decisions [55][58] - The report also emphasizes the significance of high-frequency indicators in the transportation sector, which can provide insights into overall economic activity and sector performance [60][62] Group 4 - The agricultural sector's excess returns are tracked against food product price indices, indicating a strong relationship between agricultural prices and overall sector performance [96][98] - The report discusses the food and beverage industry's performance in relation to various price indices, suggesting that monitoring these can help identify investment opportunities [98][99] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are analyzed with respect to traditional Chinese medicine price indices, highlighting the importance of these metrics in understanding market trends [101][106] Group 5 - The public utilities sector's performance is linked to coal consumption metrics, indicating that energy prices and consumption patterns are critical for assessing sector health [111][114] - The real estate sector's excess returns are correlated with metrics such as transaction volumes and land prices, suggesting that these indicators are vital for understanding market conditions [115][121] - The report also examines the computer industry, focusing on the relationship between excess returns and pricing trends in electronic components, which can inform investment strategies [124][127]

Report Information - Report Title: High - frequency Tracking Weekly Report 20250809 - Report Date: August 9, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate new home transactions declined both on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis, falling below the seasonal level, and further policy support is needed. The movie box office recovered, while the migration scale index dropped. Industrial production in the production field was stable, and infrastructure construction maintained resilience. In terms of investment, the consumption and price of rebar were divergent, and cement demand declined. The commodity futures market ran smoothly with differentiated performance among varieties, with lithium carbonate, iron ore, and polysilicon generally rising [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - **Real - estate**: This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities declined on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis, significantly below the seasonal level. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities also decreased overall. For example, in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, the second - hand housing transaction areas all decreased on a week - on - week basis. The current real - estate supply and demand are weak, and more active real - estate easing policies may be needed in the second half of the year, such as further relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities, lowering mortgage interest rates, and reducing down - payment ratios. On August 8, Beijing announced a new housing purchase policy, allowing eligible families to buy an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road [3][4][14]. - **Consumption**: Movie box office recovered. As of the week ending August 1, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars increased by 41.0% on a week - on - week basis but decreased by 7.7% year - on - year. As of the week ending August 8, the national movie box office increased by 4.7% on a week - on - week basis and was stronger than the same period last year. The national migration scale index decreased by 5.0% on a week - on - week basis, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities declined [42]. 2. Production - **Mid - upstream**: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces, petroleum asphalt plants decreased on a week - on - week basis. As of the week ending August 8, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces dropped by 1.1 pct to 82.6%, the operating rate of rebar increased by 0.3 pct to 44.3%, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 2.5 pct to 76.2%, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Yangtze River Delta region decreased by 0.9 pct to 90.7%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 1.4 pct to 31.7% [50]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of the automotive industry declined slightly. The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in the automotive industry decreased on a week - on - week basis, and the absolute value of the semi - steel tire operating rate remained at a seasonal high. The trade - in subsidy policy continued to boost domestic demand and may support the production side in the short term [50]. 3. Investment - Rebar's apparent consumption recovered, but its price decreased. As of the week ending August 8, rebar's apparent consumption increased by 3.6% to 211 tons, and its price decreased by 1.0% to 3392.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt price decreased by 2.7% to 3535 yuan/ton. The cement price decreased by 0.6% to 103.8 points, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 39.2%, and the cement inventory - to - capacity ratio decreased by 0.1 pct to 62.6% [66]. 4. Trade - **Export**: Port throughput decreased, and container shipping prices generally declined. As of the week ending August 8, the port's container throughput decreased by 8.5% on a week - on - week basis, lower than the level of the same period last year. The CCFI composite index dropped by 2.6% on a week - on - week basis, with the European route rising by 0.53% on a week - on - week basis, and the freight rates of the US West and US East routes decreasing by 5.56% and 5.14% respectively on a week - on - week basis. In addition, the BDI index continued to decline, dropping by 3.9% on a week - on - week basis [79]. - **Import**: The container shipping price decreased slightly, and the CICFI composite index was 673.9 points, down 0.9% on a week - on - week basis [79]. 5. Prices - **CPI**: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices increased by 0.7% on a week - on - week basis. Vegetable prices rose, while egg, pork, and fruit prices declined. Specifically, vegetable prices increased by 3.3% on a week - on - week basis, pork prices decreased by 0.4% on a week - on - week basis, egg prices decreased by 0.8% on a week - on - week basis, and fruit prices decreased by 1.0% on a week - on - week basis [8][90]. - **PPI**: The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 1.3% on a week - on - week basis. The spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 3.4% on a week - on - week basis, the WTI crude oil futures price decreased by 5.2% on a week - on - week basis, the IPE UK natural gas futures settlement price increased by 0.7% on a week - on - week basis, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 2.5% on a week - on - week basis, and the LME copper spot price decreased by 0.6% on a week - on - week basis. The commodity futures market ran smoothly with differentiated performance among varieties. This week, lithium carbonate, iron ore, soda ash and other commodity futures led the gains, while caustic soda, coking coal, and glass led the losses [8][98][109]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (August 11 - 15), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 385.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of 173.5 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of government bonds is 260 billion yuan, with a net financing of 164.4 billion yuan; the planned issuance of local bonds is 91.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 13.7 billion yuan; the planned issuance of policy - bank bonds is 34 billion yuan, with a net financing of 22.9 billion yuan [9][115]. - As of August 8, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year has exceeded 94.2%, reaching 1.883 trillion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds is 68.2%, reaching 545.6 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds is 64.0%, reaching 2.8179 trillion yuan [9]. 7. Policy Weekly Observation - The central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 9th consecutive month. As of the end of July, China's gold reserves were reported at 73.96 million ounces (about 2300.41 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) compared with the previous month [126][127]. - Multiple policies were introduced this week, covering pre - school education, finance supporting new industrialization, bond valuation, monetary policy, industrial policy, and real - estate policy, etc. For example, the State Council issued an opinion on gradually promoting free pre - school education; seven departments jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization; the central bank will conduct a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation [127][128].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes and implications of the recent Central Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the changes in language and focus compared to previous meetings, particularly regarding economic policies and challenges facing the economy [3][5][6]. Economic Policy Changes - The recent meeting emphasized the need to recognize ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, contrasting with previous statements that highlighted a recovery trend [3]. - The focus has shifted to maintaining policy continuity and flexibility, with an emphasis on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3][4]. - The macroeconomic policy is expected to continue exerting force and may require timely adjustments to support economic stability [3][4]. Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency to safeguard the bottom line for local governments [4]. - Monetary policy should maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in overall financing costs for society [4][5]. Consumption and Investment - There is a strong emphasis on boosting domestic consumption, particularly in service sectors, and fostering new growth points in consumption [4][8]. - Investment strategies will focus on high-quality projects and stimulating private investment to expand effective investment [4][6]. Industry and Market Dynamics - The meeting highlighted the importance of technological innovation in developing new industries and enhancing competitiveness [4]. - There is a push for orderly competition in industries, with a focus on eliminating low-price competition and managing production capacity effectively [5][6]. Real Estate and Local Debt Risks - The meeting addressed the need for high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks, emphasizing the prohibition of new hidden debts [4][6]. - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with measures to support housing demand and improve the market environment [4][6]. Social and Employment Policies - The meeting underscored the importance of prioritizing employment, particularly for key groups such as graduates and migrant workers, and enhancing social safety nets [4][6]. - There is a commitment to ensuring food security and stabilizing prices for essential agricultural products [4][6].

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold prices will experience fluctuations, while copper and oil prices are expected to trend upwards [1][12]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales have seen a narrowing decline, with a significant drop in second-hand home sales, while retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown improvement [3][4]. - The service sector continues to show seasonal improvement, with increased movie ticket sales and hotel revenues compared to last year [4]. Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - The expiration of tariff exemptions is approaching, with preliminary agreements reached between the U.S. and Vietnam, while other major economies have not yet reached consensus [5][6]. - Concerns over the expiration of tariff exemptions have led to low container bookings in the U.S., although there has been a rebound in port calls in traditional transshipment trade areas [7]. Group 4: Production Insights - The steel demand remains weak, but recent government meetings have aimed at curbing low-price competition, which has positively influenced market sentiment and led to a slight increase in rebar prices [9]. - Glass prices, which have been low for an extended period, have started to recover due to supply-side production cuts [10]. Group 5: Price Movements - There has been a general recovery in commodity prices, with domestic cement prices continuing to decline, while rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices have rebounded [11][12].

Production Sector - Coke oven operating rate decreased to 73.94%, down 0.97% from the previous week[7] - High furnace operating rate slightly decreased to 83.39%, down 0.15% from the previous week[7] - Full tire steel operating rate fell to 61.24%, down 2.23% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped to 37,100,000 CNY, a decrease of 10,900,000 CNY from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased to 60,926.5 units, down 1,697.1 units from the previous week[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars fell to 75,558.2 units, down 1,809 units from the previous week[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - Transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 173.64 million square meters, up 31.92% from the previous week[7] - Transaction area of second-hand housing in major cities rose to 226,095.73 square meters, an increase of 29.5% from the previous week[7] - Land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased to 822.47 million square meters, down 69.19 million square meters from the previous week[7] Trade and Inflation - Shanghai export container freight index fell to 2,088.24, down 152.11 from the previous week[8] - China export container freight index increased to 1,243.05, up 88.07 from the previous week[8] - Average wholesale price of pork decreased to 20.26 CNY/kg, down 0.2% from the previous week[8] Transportation - Beijing subway passenger volume increased to 941.01 million trips, up 23.35% from the previous week[8] - Shanghai subway passenger volume rose to 1,003.29 million trips, an increase of 79.14 million trips from the previous week[8] - Domestic flight numbers decreased to 12,415.71 flights, down 118.29 from the previous week[8]