www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2026年01月04日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第157期 2025年度医药业绩前瞻 | 华创医药团队： | | --- | | 首席分析师郑辰 | | 联席首席分析师刘浩 | | 医疗器械组组长李婵娟 | | 中药和流通组组长高初蕾 | | 高级分析师王宏雨 | | 高级分析师朱珂琛 | | 分析师陈俊威 | | 分析师张良龙 | 执业编号：S0360520110002邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520120002邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520110004邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070002邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080006邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070007邮箱：zhukechen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525060002邮箱：chenjunwei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S03605251 ...

证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2026年01月04日 www.hczq.com 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈·第157期 2025年度医药业绩前瞻 | 华创医药团队: | | | --- | --- | | 直席分析师郑辰 | 执业编号: S0360520110002邮箱: zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席直席分析师刘浩 | 执业编号:S0360520120002邮箱:liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长李婵娟 | 执业编号: S0360520110004邮箱: lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长高初蕾 | 执业编号: S0360524070002邮箱: gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师王宏雨 | 执业编号: S0360523080006邮箱: wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 高级分析师朱珂琛 | 执业编号: S0360524070007邮箱: zhukechen@hcyjs.com | | 分析师陈俊威 | 执业编号:S0360525060002邮箱:chenjunwei@hcyjs.c ...

2018年，电影《我不是药神》上映，讲述了主人公代购境外"平价特效药"帮助白血病患者的故事。其原 型陆勇从印度进口未获国内审批的仿制药救助病友，最终检察机关作出不起诉决定，尽显法治温度。 时隔七年，另一则"境外抗癌药代购"案却令人愤慨：涉案人毛某打着"境外低价"噱头，炮制国产原创抗 癌专利药安罗替尼牟利，价格在1500元左右一盒。经鉴定，该仿制药完全不含有效成分。2025年6月， 法院以妨害药品管理罪判处被告人毛某有期徒刑一年。目前，涉案的仿制药已经停产。 这把法律标尺，清晰丈量出"互助"与"骗局"的本质边界，让每一份裁决都经得起情理与法理的双重检 验。 案件之外，更值得深思的是患者用药困境。近年来，我国持续推进抗癌药纳入医保，但医保覆盖的完善 需要过程。这也要求，相关部门需加快医保优化节奏，缩小报销缺口；同时，需及时进行信息公开，让 患者清晰知晓用药保障范围与合法购药途径，从根源上挤压非正规渠道生存空间。 更深层面上，保护药品知识产权同样刻不容缓。一款原创抗癌药的诞生，往往需要耗费数十年的研发周 期和巨额资金。安罗替尼斩获国家专利金奖、服务万千患者，正是创新成果受保护的生动体现。 唯有让法治兼具温度与力度， ...

【文/王力 编辑/周远方】 在电影《我不是药神》上映七年后，一个与影片情节相似却性质截然不同的"仿制药"案件被央视曝光。 据央视新闻近日报道，犯罪嫌疑人毛某勾结境外药厂，将毫无有效成分、实为面粉、淀粉等灌装的假冒安罗替尼销往全国。这款假药在短短10个月内售出 380余盒，售价高达每盒1500元，涉案金额约28万元。 公开资料显示，安罗替尼是中国首个用于晚期非小细胞肺癌三线治疗的原创专利靶向药，由正大天晴药业历经十余年研发，目前仅在国内生产和销售，上市 后即被纳入医保。药企从未授权海外任何机构生产。然而，经公安机关和药企检测，所谓的"进口平替版"未检出任何安罗替尼成分，实为面粉、淀粉等无效 物质灌装而成。 许多被骗患者原本以为是电影《我不是药神》中"仿制药救命"的故事重演，实则是一起彻头彻尾的消费欺诈。受害者多为晚期肺癌患者及其家属，他们在与 死神赛跑的绝望中，抓住了这根救命稻草，却不知服下的只是毫无疗效的面粉。部分患者产生不良反应，部分因病情危重无法判断药效，还有部分已因癌症 进展离世，家属甚至无法追溯死亡是否与假药相关。 这种"人肉带货"模式刻意绕开了海关和药监部门的正规监管渠道，使得假药能够顺利进入国内市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insomnia treatment market, highlighting the potential for new drug sales performance in this sector [20][32]. Core Insights - The insomnia treatment market in China is characterized by a significant unmet need, with over 200 million individuals estimated to suffer from insomnia symptoms, representing a large consumer market potential [16][24]. - The report emphasizes the shift towards innovative insomnia medications, particularly focusing on new types of benzodiazepine receptor agonists (BZRAs) and dual orexin receptor antagonists (DORAs) as key areas for development [25][38]. - The introduction of new drugs like JY-202 (地达西尼) and DORA medications is expected to reshape the market dynamics, with a forecasted rapid increase in market share and sales [34][39]. Market Overview - The insomnia drug market in China has seen stagnant growth due to a lack of new effective treatments, with the market size in 2023 estimated at 31.62 billion yuan [24]. - The report outlines the historical sales performance of major insomnia medications, indicating a long gap since the last new product launch in 2007, which has contributed to the current market stagnation [24][25]. - The report projects a significant increase in the market size and sales for innovative insomnia drugs, particularly with the anticipated approval and market entry of new products [34][39]. Drug Development Trends - The report identifies two main directions for insomnia drug innovation: improvements on existing BZRAs and the development of DORAs, which are expected to have lower addiction risks and better patient compliance [25][38]. - The new drug JY-202 is highlighted for its selective action on the GABAA receptor, which may reduce side effects associated with traditional insomnia medications [34]. - The report also notes the successful clinical trial results for DORAs, which have shown significant improvements in sleep quality without the risk of addiction, making them suitable for broader consumer use [38][39]. Key Players and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like 京新药业 (JY-202) and 先声药业 (DORA medications) as they are positioned to capitalize on the emerging market opportunities in insomnia treatment [34][39]. - It recommends monitoring the sales performance of these new drugs as they enter the market, particularly in the context of changing consumer behavior and increasing awareness of sleep health [20][32].

证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年12月20日 www.hczq.com 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 ·第155期 失眠治疗蓝海大市场,看好上市新药销售表现 本周专题联系人:朱珂琛 | 华创医药团队： | | | --- | --- | | 首席分析师郑辰 | 执业编号: S0360520110002邮箱: zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | 联席首席分析师刘浩 | 执业编号:S0360520120002邮箱:liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长李婵娟 | 执业编号: S0360520110004邮箱: lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长高初营 | 执业编号: S0360524070002邮箱: gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师王宏雨 | 执业编号: S0360523080006邮箱:wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 分析师朱珂琛 | 执业编号: S0360524070007邮箱: zhukechen@hcyjs.com | | 分析师陈俊威 | 执业编号：S0360525060002邮箱:ch ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent cases of thyroid cancer among public figures have brought renewed attention to thyroid health issues, highlighting the increasing incidence of thyroid cancer globally and in China [1][2]. Group 1: Incidence and Characteristics of Thyroid Cancer - Thyroid cancer is the most common tumor in the endocrine system, with a significant rise in incidence. In China, the incidence rate increased 20 times from 2000 to 2016, with 466,000 new cases reported in 2022 [1][3]. - The overall development of thyroid cancer is slow, particularly for papillary thyroid cancer, which constitutes about 80% of cases. Many patients experience minimal changes over 5-10 years, and lymph node metastasis rates are low [1][2]. - The incidence rate of thyroid cancer among women in China is particularly high, with a rate of 49.4 per 100,000, making it one of the most common cancers among women [3]. Group 2: Treatment Approaches - Surgical intervention remains the primary treatment for thyroid cancer, with a trend towards preserving thyroid function rather than total thyroidectomy for low-risk patients. High-risk patients may require total thyroidectomy [2][4]. - There is ongoing debate regarding the appropriateness of ablation therapy for certain patients, and the decision-making process for surgery is complex, especially for small tumors [5][4]. Group 3: Emerging Therapies and Drug Approvals - Recent advancements in targeted therapies and immunotherapy for high-risk thyroid cancer have shown some promise, although overall efficacy remains suboptimal [6]. - Several new drugs for thyroid cancer have been approved in China since 2022, including broad-spectrum anti-cancer drugs and specific treatments for differentiated thyroid cancer [7][8]. Group 4: Public Perception and Awareness - The term "lazy cancer" is misleading, as it may downplay the seriousness of certain aggressive forms of thyroid cancer. High-risk cases account for 10-20% of all thyroid cancer cases, translating to thousands of new cases annually in China [9].

Michael MENG Daily Spotlight 8 December 2025 (852) 3988 6433 michael.meng@bocigroup.com Index Performance | | Last close | % 1D | % YTD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 26,085 | 0.6 | 30.0 | | HSCEI | 9,198 | 1.0 | 26.2 | | HSCCI | 4,260 | 0.2 | 12.7 | | MSCI HK | 13,724 | (0.4) | 29.9 | | MSCI CHINA | 85 | 0.8 | 31.6 | | FTSE CHINA A50 | 15,237 | 0.6 | 12.8 | | CSI 300 | 4,585 | 0.8 | 16.5 | | TWSE | 27,981 | 0.7 | 21.5 | | SENSEX | 85,265 | 0.2 | 9.1 | | NIKKEI 225 | 50,492 | (1.1) | 26.6 | | KOSPI | 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the innovative drug sector, highlighting the potential for value reassessment as companies transition from generic to innovative products [45]. Core Insights - The innovative drug industry is expected to shift from quantity logic to quality logic, emphasizing the importance of differentiated products and internationalization of pipelines [10]. - The medical device market is experiencing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and is benefiting from government subsidies for home medical devices [10][50]. - The report indicates a significant decline in the retail scale of physical pharmacies, with a cumulative scale of 395.2 billion yuan from January to August 2025, down 2.2% year-on-year [16]. Market Analysis Innovative Drugs - The number of innovative products in the pipeline has increased significantly, with expectations of launching five new innovative products annually over the next three years [45]. - The revenue share from innovative products is projected to exceed 50% by 2025, indicating a successful transition to a more innovative product structure [45]. Medical Devices - The imaging equipment market is recovering, with a notable increase in procurement activities expected in late 2024 [50]. - Home medical devices are benefiting from government subsidies, which are expected to drive growth in this segment [50]. Retail Pharmacy - The retail scale of physical pharmacies has been under pressure due to policy constraints and increased competition, leading to a decline in profitability [16]. - The cumulative scale of retail pharmacies in July and August 2025 was 991 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year decline [16]. Product Categories - All product categories in the pharmacy sector showed negative growth from January to August 2025, with the largest decline seen in health products, which dropped over 17% [20]. - The pharmaceutical market saw a cumulative scale of 321.7 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with specific declines attributed to reduced demand for respiratory medications [24]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The market for traditional Chinese medicine is experiencing a decline, with a cumulative scale of 302 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year [25]. - The retail scale of traditional Chinese medicine showed signs of stabilization in August, with a slight month-on-month increase [25]. Health Products - The health product market saw a cumulative scale of 149 billion yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year, although there was a slight recovery in August [33]. Chemical Drugs - The top 20 chemical drug categories accounted for 78.0% of sales in July, with notable growth in categories such as hemostatic drugs and immunosuppressants [37][40]. - The market share for chemical drugs in August increased to 78.5%, with several categories showing positive year-on-year growth [38][40].

Core Insights - The Chinese biopharmaceutical industry has achieved significant international recognition and growth, transitioning from a follower to a key contributor in the global market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][5]. Group 1: International Collaborations and Financial Milestones - In just two days, Chinese innovative drugs secured five major international deals, with several transactions exceeding $1 billion, including a $16.4 billion collaboration between Shenzhen Pruijun Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and Gilead Sciences' Kite Pharma [1]. - The total value of China's innovative drug licensing agreements reached nearly $66 billion in the first half of 2025, surpassing the entire 2024 total of $51.9 billion [5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements in Drug Development - The integration of artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge technologies has transformed drug development in China, allowing for a more precise and efficient approach [2][3]. - China's share of new drug research and development has exceeded 20% globally, positioning the country as the second-largest in new drug development [2]. Group 3: Clinical Trials and International Recognition - Chinese innovative drugs are increasingly being presented at international academic conferences, demonstrating their clinical trial results that directly compete with global leading drugs [4]. - The development of new drugs such as the CDK2/4/6 inhibitor by Zhengda Tianqing Pharmaceutical Group has showcased China's capability to produce competitive therapies on the international stage [4]. Group 4: Investment in Research and Development - Chinese biopharmaceutical companies are significantly increasing their R&D investments, with some companies reporting annual R&D expenditures exceeding 4 billion yuan [4]. - The focus on original innovation and translational medicine is driving the industry towards achieving globally competitive products [5].