机构：华泰证券 研究员：宋亭亭/王立献 2）供给端，我们预测公司1 月主动去库5 万辆左右，预计26 年将陆续上市长续航、带低温快充功能新 车（例如1 月发布26 款秦L，纯电续航由128km提至210km），降库为后续经销商端的新车铺货预留空 间。我们认为，公司1 月销量下滑较大，是淡季主动调结构，为春节后新车和新技术发布蓄力。 出口：1 月出口高增，全年目标剑指 130 万辆 1 月出口10 万辆（同比+51%），延续高增势头，海外市场是公司26 年销量增长的核心引擎。从产能 看，公司海外工厂加速落地，泰国工厂（年产能15 万辆）已稳定投产，巴西工厂（初期15 万辆/年）25 年7 月投产后快速爬坡，匈牙利工厂（预计26Q2 正式投产，可规避欧盟最高35.3%的反补贴税）。我们 预计，公司全年海外规划总产能或达80 万辆以上。渠道端同步发力，公司计划26 年底前将欧洲零售网 络扩至2000 家，覆盖90%以上市场。我们认为随着东南亚、欧洲等区域产能释放及交付提速，单月出 口量有望恢复至13 万辆以上，全年出口或超130 万辆。 技术：升级续航超充拓北方渗透，智驾数据优势或提升用户体验 智驾方面，截至25 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 130.63 [1][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in January sales, with total passenger car sales of 210,000 units, down 30% year-on-year and 50% month-on-month. However, export sales exceeded 100,000 units, marking a 51% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in domestic sales is attributed to demand front-loading and proactive inventory reduction, which is seen as a strategic move to prepare for new car and technology launches post-Spring Festival [2]. - The company aims for an export target of over 1.3 million units in 2026, driven by the expansion of overseas production capacity and retail networks [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - January sales saw a significant drop due to supply and demand pressures, with the Dynasty and Ocean series, as well as other brands, showing varied performance. The company proactively reduced inventory by approximately 50,000 units in January [2]. Export Performance - The company exported 100,000 units in January, continuing a strong growth trend. The overseas market is expected to be a key driver for sales growth in 2026, with plans to expand production capacity to over 800,000 units [3]. Technological Advancements - The company is focusing on enhancing battery range and fast charging capabilities, particularly in northern regions, to improve user experience and increase penetration of new energy vehicles [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to RMB 820 billion, RMB 955 billion, and RMB 1,110 billion respectively. Net profit estimates are RMB 350 billion, RMB 466 billion, and RMB 567 billion for the same years [5][10]. - The estimated EPS for the automotive business in 2026 is projected at RMB 4.24, with a target PE of 24 times, reflecting a premium over comparable companies [5][11].

Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a relatively dull phase that tests internal capabilities before the next technological singularity, despite the ongoing wave of new energy transformation [1] - The key to selling electric vehicles (EVs) effectively lies in two main aspects: range and intelligent driving capabilities, which must be prioritized by manufacturers [2] Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, the electric vehicle market showed strong performance with cumulative retail sales reaching 12.809 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, achieving a penetration rate of 53.9% [3] - The industry is witnessing a trend of product homogeneity among mainstream manufacturers, making differentiation increasingly challenging [4] Group 2: Key Factors for Success - Range remains the primary catalyst for consumer demand, with significant emphasis on battery capacity and charging infrastructure, especially in winter conditions [6] - Xiaomi's new SU7 model, priced between 229,900 to 309,900 yuan, features an impressive range of 902 kilometers and is equipped with advanced technologies like laser radar and dual-chamber air suspension [9] - BYD has also focused on enhancing battery capacity across its popular models, with the Qin PLUS achieving a pure electric range of 210 kilometers at a competitive price of 89,800 yuan [10][12] Group 3: Intelligent Driving - Intelligent driving is identified as a critical factor that will determine the upper limits of electric vehicle performance, with the market moving towards higher levels of automation and user experience [14] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk hinted at the potential approval of the full self-driving (FSD) version in China, which could significantly impact the competitive landscape in 2026 [16] - Huawei is also expected to play a significant role in the intelligent driving sector, focusing on safety, technology, and user experience enhancements [16] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should focus on maintaining high-quality standards, after-sales service, and stable pricing to build trust with core user groups [18] - In the high-end luxury market, brand building and user experience should take precedence, emphasizing patience and long-term commitment to succeed [19] - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market is expected to become increasingly fierce as the industry transitions from incremental competition to more intense rivalry [20]

Core Viewpoint - BYD is rapidly transforming the public service vehicle market in China, becoming a trusted partner for law enforcement agencies with its innovative technology and reliable quality [2][4]. Group 1: Market Presence - BYD vehicles have become a frequent presence in police fleets across various regions in China, including cities like Hefei, Jinzhou, Xi'an, and Xiaogan, showcasing models such as Qin PLUS, Song Pro, and Song PLUS for various law enforcement scenarios [3]. - The appearance of BYD models in government procurement announcements indicates a growing acceptance and trust in domestic electric vehicles for public safety [3]. Group 2: Product Features - BYD's vehicles meet the stringent demands of police work, offering exceptional safety, reliability, and adaptability for different operational environments [4]. - The hybrid systems in BYD vehicles provide both fuel efficiency for urban patrols and powerful performance for rural responses, effectively addressing the operational needs of law enforcement [4]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The widespread adoption of BYD police vehicles reflects not only the success of the brand but also the rise of Chinese manufacturing in high-end sectors, demonstrating a clear trajectory of innovation benefiting public service [4]. - This shift signifies that domestic automotive manufacturers are fully capable of taking on the critical role of ensuring public safety, positioning themselves as reliable "mobile shields" in modern law enforcement [4].

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry has achieved significant milestones in 2025, with total vehicle production and sales exceeding 34 million units, and new energy vehicles (NEVs) surpassing 16 million units, marking a structural upgrade in the industry [5][6] - NEVs now account for over 50% of new car sales in China, indicating their dominance in the market [6][7] - The industry is experiencing rapid technological advancements, particularly in smart driving and battery technology, which are enhancing the competitiveness of electric vehicles [9][10] Industry Performance - In 2025, China's NEV production reached 16.62 million units, with sales at 16.49 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% respectively, maintaining the global leadership for 11 consecutive years [6][7] - BYD has surpassed Tesla in annual pure electric vehicle sales, marking a significant achievement for the company [7] - The introduction of L3-level autonomous driving vehicles by Changan and BAIC marks a transition from technology validation to mass production applications [8] Technological Advancements - The automotive industry is witnessing breakthroughs in battery technology, with advancements in energy density and charging efficiency, contributing to the reduction of "range anxiety" for electric vehicle users [9] - The integration of AI and robotics into the automotive sector is creating new opportunities for innovation and efficiency [10] - The collaboration between companies like JD, GAC Group, and CATL is enhancing the entire automotive value chain from R&D to sales [9][10] Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The industry is facing challenges related to "involution" competition, prompting regulatory measures to ensure fair market practices and promote high-quality development [12][13] - New guidelines and safety standards are being implemented to enhance the safety and reliability of electric vehicles [13][14] - The focus on building a modern industrial system and promoting green consumption is expected to drive the future growth of the automotive sector [14][15]

Core Insights - BYD has surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, selling 2.26 million pure electric vehicles in 2025 compared to Tesla's 1.64 million [1] - This shift signifies a symbolic moment for the rise of Chinese automotive companies, marking a transition from following to leading in the electric vehicle sector [1] Group 1: R&D Investment - BYD's revenue for the first three quarters of the year reached 566.27 billion yuan, with R&D expenses amounting to 43.75 billion yuan, representing 7.7% of its revenue [1] - BYD's R&D investment exceeds Tesla's by 10.9 billion yuan, with cumulative R&D spending surpassing 220 billion yuan [1] - The company employs over 120,000 R&D personnel across 11 research institutes, with more than 50,000 recent graduates hired in the last three years, of which over 70% hold master's or doctoral degrees [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - BYD's R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue is comparable to that of international giants like Volkswagen and Toyota, which typically range from 3% to 5% [3] - The company has maintained a high R&D investment ratio, ensuring continuous breakthroughs in core technologies [3] - The success of BYD and other Chinese automakers is attributed to sustained high-intensity R&D investments driving technological and product upgrades [3] Group 3: Battery Technology - In 2022, global battery installations reached 1,046 GWh, a 32.6% increase year-on-year, with six of the top ten companies being Chinese, and BYD ranking second [5] - Chinese companies hold a 70% market share in global battery installations, indicating a strong position in the electric vehicle sector [5] - BYD's comprehensive coverage of the automotive manufacturing supply chain, including battery technology, provides a significant competitive advantage [5] Group 4: International Expansion - BYD's overseas sales reached 1.049 million units in 2025, a 145% increase year-on-year, accounting for over 22% of total sales [7] - The company is actively contributing to the electrification of markets like Brazil, where it has established local manufacturing facilities [7] - Despite facing restrictions in the U.S. market, BYD is focusing on expanding in developing regions, which represent about 40% of the global market share [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that BYD has the potential to surpass Toyota in global sales, with a current gap of approximately one million units [9] - The transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles is seen as an unstoppable trend, with BYD positioned to capitalize on this shift [9] - Geopolitical factors may influence the pace of expansion, but the overall trend towards electric vehicles remains strong [9]

Core Viewpoint - BYD has surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, selling 2.26 million pure electric vehicles in 2025 compared to Tesla's 1.64 million, marking a significant shift in the global EV market dynamics [1] Group 1: R&D Investment and Workforce - BYD's revenue for the first three quarters of the year reached 566.27 billion yuan, with R&D expenses amounting to 43.75 billion yuan, representing 7.7% of its revenue [2] - The company has over 120,000 R&D personnel across 11 research institutes, with more than 50,000 recent graduates hired in the last three years, of which over 70% hold master's or doctoral degrees [4] - BYD's R&D investment has consistently ranked first among A-share listed companies, with a cumulative investment exceeding 220 billion yuan [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Market Position - BYD's R&D investment is significantly higher than that of Tesla by 10.9 billion yuan, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [2] - The company has achieved a remarkable 145% year-on-year growth in overseas sales, reaching 1.049 million units in 2025, which accounts for over 22% of its total sales [9] - BYD's strong position in the battery supply chain, being the second-largest in global battery installations, gives it a competitive edge in the EV market [7] Group 3: Global Market Trends and Future Outlook - The global market share of Chinese new energy passenger vehicles reached 68.4% in 2025, with a peak of 73.7% in November, reflecting the impact of R&D investments over the past decade [6] - The geopolitical landscape poses challenges for Chinese automakers, with significant tariffs imposed by the U.S. and EU on Chinese electric vehicles, pushing companies to focus on developing markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East [12] - Analysts suggest that BYD has the potential to surpass Toyota in global sales, with a projected growth space of approximately 1x, contingent on the speed of EV adoption over traditional fuel vehicles [12]

Group 1 - BYD maintains its leading position in the new energy vehicle market with a market share of 28.7% [1][17] - From January to September 2025, BYD's cumulative sales reached 3.26 million units, achieving 71% of its annual target of 4.6 million units [3][20] - The overseas market has become a significant growth engine for BYD, with exports exceeding 701,600 units, representing 22% of total sales [3][21] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, BYD's revenue reached 566.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, while net profit was 23.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.55% [4][20] - R&D expenses increased by 31% to 43.75 billion yuan, reflecting BYD's commitment to enhancing its technological capabilities [4][20] - The domestic new energy vehicle market is undergoing significant changes, with a penetration rate exceeding 35%, indicating a shift from incremental to stock competition [5][20] Group 3 - The Dynasty series remains a key player in BYD's high-end market, with the Song PLUS achieving sales of 179,300 units in the first three quarters of 2025, a 22% year-on-year increase [9][21] - The Song Pro, focusing on family users, sold 138,200 units during the same period, marking an 18% increase [10][22] - The Ocean series, featuring stylish designs and advanced technology, has become a new growth driver for BYD, with the Sea Lion and Sea Gull models performing well in their respective segments [13][25] Group 4 - BYD is expected to see a revenue rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, with projected revenue of 288.6 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase [14][26]

Group 1 - BYD has topped the global sales chart for pure electric vehicles, with a total sales exceeding 4.6 million units in 2025, maintaining its position as the annual sales champion in China [3] - China FAW Group achieved over 3.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, marking a 3.2% year-on-year increase, with its joint venture FAW-Volkswagen leading in sales among joint venture brands [3] - Geely Automobile surpassed 3.02 million units in sales, exceeding its annual target and setting a historical record [3] Group 2 - Leap Motor emerged as the biggest "dark horse" in the new energy vehicle sector, delivering nearly 600,000 units in 2025, representing a 103% year-on-year growth and achieving over 119% of its annual target [4] - NIO reported a record delivery of over 320,000 vehicles in 2025, with a significant increase in delivery volume in the latter half of the year [6] - Multiple automakers indicated that the Chinese new energy vehicle industry is entering a new phase of technological iteration and global development, aiming to lead in both quantity and quality [6] Group 3 - The establishment of new state-owned enterprise China Changan Automobile Group aims to accelerate breakthroughs in new energy, intelligence, and globalization, contributing to a total sales of 2.91 million units in 2025, the highest in nearly nine years [3] - Chery Group's sales exceeded 2.8 million units in 2025, focusing on innovation to enhance product service for global users [3] - Huawei's collaboration with automakers like Seres and BAIC has led to the successful launch of popular models, with a total delivery of nearly 590,000 units in 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is focusing on innovation, ecosystem collaboration, and market demand to achieve high-quality development, as evidenced by the recent performance of various companies [1][3]. Company Performance - BYD sold over 4.6 million vehicles in 2025, maintaining its position as the annual sales champion in China, showcasing a comprehensive breakthrough in product strength and global strategy [3]. - China FAW Group achieved over 3.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, with a 3.2% year-on-year growth, leading in both joint venture and fuel vehicle sales [3]. - Geely Automobile exceeded 3.02 million vehicle sales, achieving a historical high and surpassing its annual target [3]. - Changan Automobile, as a new state-owned enterprise, reported 2.91 million vehicle sales, marking a nearly nine-year high [3]. - Chery Group's sales surpassed 2.8 million vehicles, emphasizing innovation and user-centric product development [3]. New Entrants and Growth - Leap Motor emerged as the biggest "dark horse" in 2025, delivering nearly 600,000 vehicles, a 103% year-on-year increase, and achieving over 119% of its annual target [4]. - Huawei, leveraging its ICT expertise, collaborated with various automakers to launch popular models, delivering nearly 590,000 vehicles in 2025 [4]. - XPeng Motors delivered nearly 430,000 vehicles, achieving over 100% growth [4]. - NIO returned to a high growth trajectory in the latter half of 2025, delivering over 320,000 vehicles, a record high [6]. Future Outlook - The Chinese automotive industry is entering a new phase characterized by technological iteration, accelerated electrification, and globalization, aiming to lead in both quantity and quality [6]. - BYD plans to maintain significant R&D and financial investments to strengthen electrification and promote intelligent development, aiming to create a new growth curve [6].