2025 年 11 月 07 日 出口骤降的"隐藏线索" — 10 月外贸数据点评 事件: 11 月 7 日,海关总署公布 10 月进出口数据,出口 (以美元计价) 同比-1.1%、预 期 3.2%、前值 8.3%；进口（以美元计价）同比 1%、预期 4.1%、前值 7.4%。 核心观点：10 月出口回落或排外需走弱，更多是短期供给扰动，目前供给犹动已在消退。 o 10 月出口同比大幅回落,主因或并非外需走弱。10 月出口回落一定程度上受到基数走高 的影响，但环比（-7.1%）仍明显弱于季节性（-3.2%）；从国别看，对东盟（-4.7pct 至 11%）、对非洲（-46.1pct 至 10.5%）等新兴经济体出口增速回落，而越南、泰国、南非、 巴西等地 PMI 年中以来持续改善，新兴经济体需求并未明显走弱；对美出口也在改善。 短期供给扰动才是拖累出口主困,或与前期"抢生产"结束以及工作日天数减少有关。10 月工作日同比较前月减少 3 天，考虑到国庆节后一周休假情况也居多，进一步放大了工作 日减少对供给的拖累；9 月受长假的影响，制造业 "抢生产"现象明显，但 10 月对应退 坡。10 月出口回落的基本上都是 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件：11月7日，海关总署公布10月进出口数据，出口（以美元计价）同比-1.1%、预期3.2%、前值8.3%；进口（以美元计价）同比1%、预期4.1%、前值 7.4%。 核心观点：10月出口回落或非外需走弱，更多是短期供给扰动，目前供给扰动已在消退。 10月出口同比大幅回落，主因或并非外需走弱。 10月出口回落一定程度上受到基数走高的影响，但环比（-7.1%）仍明显弱于季节性（-3.2%）；从国别看， 对东盟（-4.7pct至11%）、对非洲（-46.1pct至10.5%）等新兴经济体出口增速回落，而越南、泰国、南非、巴西等地PMI年中以来持续改善，新兴经济体需求 并未明显走弱；对美出口也在改善。 短期供给扰动才是拖累出口主因，或与前期"抢生产"结束以及工作日天数减少有关。 10月工作日同比较前月减少3天，考虑到国庆节后一周休假情况也居 多，进一步放大了工作日减少对供给的拖累；9月受长假的影响，制造业"抢生产"现象明显，但10月对应退坡。10月出口回落的基本上都是9月走强的商品； 消费电子、轻工制品等劳动密集型行业出口跌幅也更大；高频出口链生产同比下滑至-0. ...

事件：11 月 7 日，海关总署公布 10 月进出口数据，出口（以美元计价）同比-1.1%、预 期 3.2%、前值 8.3%；进口（以美元计价）同比 1%、预期 4.1%、前值 7.4%。 ⚫ 核心观点：10 月出口回落或非外需走弱，更多是短期供给扰动，目前供给扰动已在消退。 10 月出口同比大幅回落，主因或并非外需走弱。10 月出口回落一定程度上受到基数走高 的影响，但环比（-7.1%）仍明显弱于季节性（-3.2%）；从国别看，对东盟（-4.7pct 至 11%）、对非洲（-46.1pct 至 10.5%）等新兴经济体出口增速回落，而越南、泰国、南非、 巴西等地 PMI 年中以来持续改善，新兴经济体需求并未明显走弱；对美出口也在改善。 短期供给扰动才是拖累出口主因，或与前期"抢生产"结束以及工作日天数减少有关。10 月工作日同比较前月减少 3 天，考虑到国庆节后一周休假情况也居多，进一步放大了工作 日减少对供给的拖累；9 月受长假的影响，制造业"抢生产"现象明显，但 10 月对应退 坡。10 月出口回落的基本上都是 9 月走强的商品；消费电子、轻工制品等劳动密集型行业 出口跌幅也更大；高频出口链生产同比下滑 ...

Overall Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's total import and export volume showed a slight increase, with a total of approximately $30,321 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [3] - Exports reached $18,090 billion, growing by 5.9%, while imports decreased by 3.8% to $12,231 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $5,859 billion, which is a 34.7% increase [3][4] - Private enterprises contributed significantly to foreign trade, accounting for 65.7% of total exports and 108.2% of the trade surplus in the first half of the year [3][4] Private Enterprises - Private enterprises have shown resilience in the face of challenges, minimizing the overall impact of the US-China trade war [5] - Exports to Africa and ASEAN increased by 21.6% and 9.6%, respectively, indicating successful market diversification efforts [5] - Despite maintaining a high export share of over 66%, private enterprises experienced a slowdown in growth rates in May and June compared to national averages, highlighting emerging challenges [6] Export Structure Changes - The export structure has shifted towards high-tech and high-value-added products, with mechanical and electrical products accounting for 60% of total exports, growing by 8.2% [6][7] - High-tech product exports increased by 6.4%, with integrated circuits seeing an 18.9% growth, reflecting advancements in China's manufacturing capabilities [7] - Traditional industries, particularly light manufacturing, faced significant declines, with apparel exports down by 0.2% and footwear exports down by 7.2% [8] Challenges in Traditional Industries - The light industry, heavily reliant on the US market, is particularly sensitive to tariff impacts, with significant declines in exports of toys, furniture, and other products [8] - The energy and raw materials sectors also saw declines, with steel exports down by 2% and coal exports down by 9.9%, attributed to global economic weakness and overcapacity in China [9] Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - Despite a more favorable tariff environment, uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical tensions pose significant challenges for foreign trade [11] - The focus will need to be on enhancing the quality and structure of exports while maintaining stable growth in volume [11] - Monitoring the operational status of private enterprises and optimizing the business environment will be crucial for sustaining high-tech industry advantages [11]

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, Hunan Province's import and export to Africa reached 12.48 billion yuan, with exports at 6.72 billion yuan, an increase of 33.2%, and imports at 5.76 billion yuan [1] - Changsha accounted for 52.4% of Hunan's total trade with Africa, with a total of 6.54 billion yuan in imports and exports [1] - General trade was the primary trade method, with 9.95 billion yuan in general trade, making up 79.7% of the total trade with Africa [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, private enterprises contributed over 80% of Hunan's trade with Africa, totaling 10.04 billion yuan, while state-owned and foreign-invested enterprises also showed growth [1] - South Africa was the largest trading partner for Hunan in Africa, with trade amounting to 2.63 billion yuan, accounting for 21% of Hunan's total trade with Africa [2] - Electrical machinery, automobiles, and measuring instruments saw significant export growth, with total exports of electrical products reaching 3.48 billion yuan, a 34.8% increase [2] Group 3 - In 2024, the trade volume between China and Africa reached 2.1 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with China being Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years [3] - The upcoming Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in June 2024 in Changsha will focus on enhancing cooperation in various sectors, including infrastructure and clean energy [3]

海关总署公布的数据显示，今年一季度国内家用电器出口额241.65亿美元，同比增长8.7%，以人民币 计，出口额同比增长9.9%；家具及其零件出口额159.34亿美元，同比下降8%，以人民币计同比下降 7%；陶瓷产品47.66亿美元，同比下降19.3%，以人民币计下降18.5%。 相较于农产品、工业制造类产品，家具、陶瓷类产品的出口量近年持续下降，但家用电器的制造优势仍 在呈现，在今年一季度仍保持增长态势。 由于早在数年前就曾遭遇一轮关税加增，因此家居行业近年来在关税压力下，已经经历过一番调整。一 方面整体出口额难以避免的出现下降，部分产能被淘汰，另一方面家居行业也更早地在压力下寻求转型 出路。 根据海关总署今年1、2月份的数据显示，虽然从年初开始，主要家居品类对美国、墨西哥市场的出口额 就有所下降，但对德国市场的出口额同比就出现超过10%的增幅。 具体到细分领域，在今年1-2月，弹簧床垫的对美出口额仍有接近370%的增速；办公金属家居对英国市 场出口额同比增长超过60%；竹制家具至法国市场出口额同比增长43.68%。 不难看出，在对美市场出口额出现下降的同时，国内家具企业也在寻求向欧洲等其他更多市场的开拓和 ...