格隆汇1月6日｜中金发表报告指，吉利汽车2025年实现乘用车销量约302.46万辆，按年增长39%，超出 公司原定的300万辆年度销量目标。该行认为，公司销量高增主要得益于银河品牌产品矩阵丰富，星愿 车型月销4万辆以上，并在年内推出A7、星耀6、星耀8、M9多款全新车型，推动银河品牌2025年销量 按年增长150%，贡献主要增长点。在出口方面，出口销量按年增长1%至42万辆，整体保持稳健。 往前看，该行预计随着吉利、极氪、领克三大品牌整合逐步推进，生产管理的协同效应有望逐步释放， 叠加产品周期向上，有望展现更强盈利弹性。由于产品周期向上，多品牌协同提升盈利能力，该行上调 吉利2025/2026净利润预测3.2%/8.9%至175亿元/215亿元，首次引入2027年净利润249亿元；维持"跑赢行 业"评级和26港元目标价。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that Geely Automobile's (00175) new energy brand is gaining momentum, with accelerating profitability expected from 2025 to 2027, projecting revenues of 404.78 billion, 489.69 billion, and 572.83 billion yuan, and net profits of 16.21 billion, 22.09 billion, and 25.97 billion yuan respectively, with an EPS of 1.61, 2.19, and 2.58 yuan, maintaining a "recommended" rating [1] - In October, the company achieved total wholesale sales of 307,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%, with export sales of 42,000 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.2% [1] - The launch of the new hybrid sedan, Xingyao 6, under the Galaxy brand on October 30, features a price range of 68,800 to 99,800 yuan and is equipped with advanced technologies such as the new generation Raytheon AI hybrid system and intelligent cockpit [1] Group 2 - The company announced a share repurchase plan with a maximum amount of 2.3 billion HKD, which will be executed in the open market through an automated mechanism, reflecting confidence in long-term development and aiming to optimize capital structure and enhance EPS [2] - Geely and Zeekr submitted a CB form to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, with the "big merger" expected to be completed by the end of this year, promoting the "One Geely" strategy to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - Minsheng Securities reports that Geely Automobile's (00175) new energy brand is gaining momentum, with accelerating profitability expected from 2025 to 2027, projecting revenues of 404.78 billion, 489.69 billion, and 572.83 billion yuan, and net profits of 16.21 billion, 22.09 billion, and 25.97 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "recommended" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Geely from 2025 to 2027 are 1.61, 2.19, and 2.58 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 7, and 6 times based on the closing price of 17.77 HKD on November 3 [1] - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 307,000 units in October, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5% [1] Group 2: Product Launch and Market Performance - Geely's export sales in October reached 42,000 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.2% [1] - The new electric hybrid sedan, Xingyao 6, was launched on October 30, with a limited-time price range of 68,800 to 99,800 yuan, featuring advanced technologies such as the new generation Raytheon AI hybrid system and the Galaxy Flyme Auto intelligent cockpit [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Geely announced a share repurchase plan with a maximum amount of 2.3 billion HKD, aimed at optimizing capital structure and enhancing earnings per share, reflecting confidence in long-term development [2] - The merger process between Zeekr Technology and Geely is expected to be completed by the end of this year, promoting the "One Geely" strategy to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [2]

Core Insights - Geely Galaxy has launched its new generation electric hybrid family sedan, the Xingyao 6, with a price range from 68,800 to 99,800 yuan, aiming to enhance its competitiveness in the increasingly fierce family car market [2][3] - The Xingyao 6 features a new generation Raytheon AI hybrid 2.0 system, achieving a thermal efficiency of 47.26% and a fuel consumption of 2.8L/100km under CLTC conditions, with a comprehensive range of 1,700 kilometers [2][3] Pricing and Market Positioning - The Xingyao 6 is positioned with a starting price of 68,800 yuan, showcasing strong price competitiveness in the family sedan segment [2] - The vehicle is available in seven variants, covering two pure electric range options of 60km and 125km [2] Technical Specifications - The Xingyao 6 is equipped with a high-strength steel cage body, with high-strength steel accounting for 71.6% of its structure [3] - The vehicle's Shen Shield battery safety system has passed rigorous tests, including an 8-pin puncture test and a 2-meter drop test [3] Safety Features - The Xingyao 6 has demonstrated safety redundancy under extreme conditions, completing multiple challenging safety tests, including a 16% speed increase in frontal collision tests [3] Intelligent Features - The vehicle includes the Galaxy Flyme Auto intelligent cockpit, featuring a 7nm "Dragon Eagle 1" chip and a 14.6-inch 2K central control screen, along with an AI voice assistant capable of continuous dialogue [3] - The Qianli Haohan H3 driver assistance system is equipped with three millimeter-wave radars and eleven high-definition cameras, supporting urban and highway navigation functions [3] Strategic Implications - The launch of the Xingyao 6 signifies Geely Galaxy's strategic entry into the A-class sedan market, reflecting the brand's commitment to "technological equality" by making high-end features accessible below the 100,000 yuan price point [3]

Core Viewpoint - Geely is undergoing significant internal integration to enhance efficiency and reduce redundancy, aiming to establish a unified brand identity and improve product positioning in the competitive automotive market [1][4][6]. Group 1: Internal Integration and Brand Positioning - Geely's CEO emphasizes the importance of a systematic approach to integration, referring to the company as a "clumsy child" that must steadily progress towards its goals [2][3]. - The integration has clarified brand positioning, with distinct roles for its sub-brands: Zeekr as luxury technology, Lynk & Co as mid-to-high-end performance, and Galaxy as mainstream high-value products [2][4]. - The launch of the Galaxy M9 SUV, priced under 200,000 yuan, showcases Geely's ability to control costs and break market barriers [2][15]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Sales Goals - Geely has raised its annual sales target to 3 million units, reflecting confidence in its growth strategy amid fierce competition in the electric vehicle market [5][17]. - The company aims to accelerate product launches, with several new models, including the Zeekr 9X and Starry 6, set to hit the market soon [5][18]. - Geely's sales from January to August reached 1.897 million units, a 47% year-on-year increase, with domestic growth exceeding 60% [17][19]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Strategic Partnerships - Geely is focusing on enhancing its smart driving capabilities through a partnership with Qianli Technology, aiming to develop a comprehensive intelligent driving solution [8][10]. - The company is committed to maintaining technological leadership in smart driving, requiring significant investment in AI and engineering capabilities [10][11]. - Geely's R&D investment from 2021 to 2025 exceeds 100 billion yuan, with total R&D spending over 250 billion yuan in nearly 11 years, indicating a shift from investment to harvest phase [16].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience significant profit growth driven by the release of new models and strategic integration, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards due to anticipated strong performance in the second half of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company raised its 2025 annual sales target to 3 million units, supported by the platform-based cost advantages and the introduction of popular models [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28%, primarily driven by a 47% increase in quarterly deliveries to 705,000 units [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 reached 3.62 billion RMB, with core net profit estimated between 2.44 billion and 2.65 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 42%-55% [1] Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - The upcoming launch of several new models, including the fifth-generation Emgrand and Galaxy A7, is expected to enhance delivery growth, with the Galaxy A7 already achieving over 30,000 pre-orders since its launch [2] - The company is focusing on smart upgrades and a clear product matrix through Zeekr Technology, targeting the luxury market with new models like the Zeekr 9X and Lynk & Co 10 EM-P [2] - The global expansion strategy aims for a more than 30% increase in export sales in the second half of 2025, supported by strategic integrations and operational efficiencies [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience high growth driven by the release of potential new vehicles and strategic integration, which will facilitate profit release from the second half of 2025 onwards [6][7]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 156.6 billion, 179.7 billion, and 215.7 billion RMB, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.7, 1.9, and 2.2 RMB [6]. - The company has raised its annual sales target for 2025 to 3 million vehicles, supported by the platform-based cost advantages and the launch of several new models [7]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 179.204 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 330.103 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 37.4% [7]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 5.308 billion RMB, with a significant increase of 213.3% in 2024, followed by a slight decrease of 5.9% in 2025 [7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.1% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to rise from 3.0% to 5.4% over the same period [7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the company meets expectations, with strong resilience in various segments despite losses in the Zeekr brand [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company sold 704,000 new vehicles, with revenue reaching 77.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.5% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 17.1%, with a net profit of 3.16 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 74.7% [1] - For the first half of 2025, total vehicle sales reached 1.408 million, with revenue of 150.285 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5% [1] Cost and Expenses - The sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 2025 were 6.1%, 1.9%, and 5.1%, respectively, indicating a slight increase in sales and R&D expenses [1] - The company faced increased R&D expenses due to new vehicle development, contributing to losses in the Zeekr segment [2] Segment Performance - The Zeekr brand reported a loss of 580 million yuan in Q2, primarily due to changes in vehicle model sales and high R&D costs [2] - Other segments, particularly the Galaxy series, showed strong performance with a net profit of 3,300 yuan per vehicle, indicating resilience amid price competition [2] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its future operations, driven by a strong new vehicle cycle and low-cost production strategies [3] - Upcoming models, including the Galaxy M9 and Zeekr 9X, are expected to enhance the company's market position [3] - The company maintains profit expectations of 16.6 billion yuan, 19.68 billion yuan, and 24 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated stable gross margins and reduced expense ratios, with significant growth in fuel vehicle sales and a strong performance in the new energy vehicle sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Gross margin remained stable at 16.4%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to price wars [1]. - Sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 5.6%, while R&D expense ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.9% [1]. - Net profit reached 6.66 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 4.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net profit per vehicle increased from 3,453 yuan last year to 4,724 yuan this year, indicating a significant improvement [2]. Group 2: Sales Performance - The company achieved a record high sales volume of 1.41 million units in the first half of 2025, capturing a domestic market share of 10.4%, ranking second [1]. - Fuel vehicle sales increased by 21% year-on-year, totaling 474,000 units, with a market share of 9%, making it the top domestic brand [1]. - In the new energy vehicle segment, sales for Galaxy, Lynk, and Zeekr reached 55,000, 15,000, and 9,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 232%, 22%, and 3% [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve an annual sales target of 3 million units, with significant pre-orders for the Galaxy A7 exceeding 30,000 units [3]. - The merger with Zeekr is expected to be completed by the end of the year, with a shareholder meeting scheduled for September 15 [3]. - New vehicle launches, including the Starry 6 and Zeekr 9X, are anticipated to enhance average selling prices (ASP) and gross margins, contributing to brand elevation and improved customer perception [3].

Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a revenue of 150.28 billion yuan for the first half of 2023, marking a 27% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14% to 9.29 billion yuan [1][5] - The company achieved a sales volume of 1.409 million vehicles, a 47% increase year-on-year, making it one of the fastest-growing car manufacturers in China [3][9] - Geely's Galaxy brand saw exceptional growth, with sales reaching 548,000 units, a staggering 232% increase year-on-year [3][7] Financial Performance - Revenue reached a historical high of 150.28 billion yuan, while net profit fell to 9.29 billion yuan, primarily due to a one-time gain from a transaction with Renault in the previous year [5][11] - The gross profit margin slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 16.4% [5][7] - Core net profit, excluding foreign exchange losses, was 6.66 billion yuan, representing a 102% increase compared to the previous year [5] Market Position and Strategy - Geely is narrowing the market share gap with leading competitors like BYD, with the difference now reduced to 4 percentage points [3][11] - The company plans to increase its annual sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million vehicles [9][10] - The merger with Zeekr is ongoing, with shareholder meetings scheduled for September to finalize the legal completion of the merger [10][11] Product Development and Sales - Geely Galaxy has become the main force in the company's new energy vehicle segment, contributing over half of the group's total new energy vehicle sales [7][9] - The company plans to launch several new models, including the Galaxy A7 and Galaxy M9, aiming for a total sales target of 1 million units for the Galaxy brand [10][11] - The Lynk & Co brand sold 154,000 vehicles, a 22% increase, while Zeekr's sales reached 91,000 units, a 3% increase [8]