中信证券：继续聚焦资源和传统制造定价权的提升 年初的躁动缘于跨年踏空资金的集中入场，"人心思涨"是大背景，一些前期谨慎资金的追涨加速了行情演绎， 但躁动主要发生在主题板块以及量化影响较大的小票，而非配置型资金布仓方向。从当前的量价和风险偏好指 标来看，短期市场热度偏高，但情绪指标还没有转弱迹象，预计主题、小票轮动的震荡上行格局可能还会延续 到两会前后，直至内需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状态。 不过，抛开短期的市场躁动，站在全年维度，真正具备持续入场体量的配置型资金今年对权益组合降低波动的 诉求是更高的，需要考虑的是这部分可持续的"大钱"（而不是年初踏空资金）会持续流向的方向。在配置上， 建议资源和传统制造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合波动。 兴业证券：市场上行收益可能远大于下行风险 往后看，上证"十六连阳"、突破关键点位、成交额破3万亿等一系列标志性事件对于趋势和信心的强化，有助 于市场各方参与积极性抬升，为本轮春季行情奠定良好开局。并且，结合基本面、情绪、结构、日历效应等维 度，当前市场处于向下风险有限、向上仍有较大潜在空间的窗口，上行收益可能远大于下行风险。商业航天作 为 ...

格隆汇1月6日｜瑞银分析师在报告中指出，投资者并未准确评估ASM International对台积电(TSM.N)的 高度敞口所带来的价值。分析师表示，随着台积电加大对晶圆制造的投资（瑞银预计2026年将同比增长 21%），ASMI将从中受益。他们补充称，ASM代工和逻辑业务的收入增长将快于预期，而人工智能存 储需求的增长也未得到投资者的充分重视。受此影响，ASM股价上涨4.7%，表现优于欧洲半导体同 行，交易价格接近一年来的高点。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced significant adjustments with widespread declines in individual stocks, reflecting a decrease in trading enthusiasm as year-end approaches, leading to a shrinking trading volume and a cautious market sentiment [1] - Concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are contributing to short-term market caution, with expectations that this could lead to capital inflows back to Japan, indirectly affecting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - Despite the current market fluctuations around the 4000-point level, conditions are in place for potential upward movement, supported by anticipated improvements in supply and demand in the manufacturing sector by mid-2026 [1] Sector Focus - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banking, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals [2] - Consumer sectors may also gain attention due to event-driven factors [2] - Technology remains a key focus for 2026, with particular interest in AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics, as these sectors are poised for growth following a period of adjustment [2] Technology Trends - The trend for AI hardware continues to solidify, with increasing token usage for major AI models indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026, presenting opportunities for high growth in AI hardware [2] - The domestic production and integration of robots into everyday life is expected to be a significant trend in 2026, with advancements in various types of robots creating opportunities in related sectors [2] - The semiconductor industry is also expected to see continued domestic growth, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] Military and Pharmaceutical Outlook - The military sector is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2026, with many sub-sectors showing signs of recovery in performance metrics [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustments, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market has regained upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new recent highs, indicating a strong performance with more stocks rising than falling [1] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of consolidation around the 4000-point level, which may prepare for further upward movement [1] - The recent breakthrough of the 3900-point resistance since late October suggests that the market has the potential for further upward expansion [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with key focus areas in November including the impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan on industries, event-driven dynamics in the technology sector, and price recovery driven by anti-involution [1] - The anticipated return of bullish sentiment is likely as the index breaks previous highs [1] Sector Highlights - The technology sector remains a focal point for November, with orderly rotation and high-low switching expected within the sector [2] - Underperforming segments such as robotics, military industry, and smart vehicles are anticipated to see a rebound, while leading sectors like computing hardware, domestic semiconductors, and new energy may present buying opportunities upon adjustment [2] - The anti-involution trend is showing results in sectors like photovoltaics, cement, coal, and express delivery, which are experiencing price increases and potential for further gains [2] Specific Sector Opportunities - Robotics is projected to expand from humanoid to quadruped and functional robots, creating opportunities in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The trend towards semiconductor localization continues, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military sector is expected to see a recovery in orders by 2025, with signs of bottoming out in the performance of various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue [2] - The banking sector is witnessing a rebound in mid-year performance growth, attracting interest from long-term institutional investors due to appealing dividend yields [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that 商络电子 has made an indirect investment in 荣芯半导体, a unicorn in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, which has a registered capital of 415 million yuan [1] - 荣芯半导体 specializes in wafer manufacturing and wafer-level packaging testing [1] - Currently, the company's stake in 荣芯半导体 is relatively small and has not generated significant returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Ecosystem Expo 2025 (Bay Chip Expo 2025) will take place from October 15-17 at the Shenzhen Convention Center, focusing on the efficient integration of the entire semiconductor industry chain, with a core emphasis on wafer manufacturing [2][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The expo will cover an exhibition area of 60,000 square meters, showcasing cutting-edge technologies and solutions from over 600 high-quality semiconductor companies, expected to attract more than 60,000 professional visitors [2][12]. - The event aims to create an "ecological display circle" that deeply connects key segments such as IC design, advanced packaging, and compound semiconductors, encompassing EDA/IP, semiconductor equipment, materials, core components, wafer manufacturing, and packaging testing [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Collaboration - The wafer manufacturing exhibition area is one of the largest, featuring top companies like ASML, AMAT, and Lam Research, showcasing their strengths and innovations in wafer manufacturing [8][16]. - The exhibition promotes a complete technical display matrix from "equipment - materials - manufacturing," facilitating the upgrade of the industry chain from "single-point innovation" to "systemic collaboration" [10]. Group 3: International Participation - The number of international exhibitors has increased by over 50% compared to previous years, indicating a significant enhancement in internationalization levels, driven by the vast prospects of the Chinese market [12][18]. - International companies will present cutting-edge technologies across the entire chip design, wafer manufacturing, and packaging testing chain, providing a valuable platform for domestic companies to engage in deep technical exchanges with global industry leaders [14][16]. Group 4: Ecosystem Development - The expo embodies an open and inclusive spirit of cooperation, evolving into a truly global semiconductor industry event, promoting a "win-win" ecosystem through mutual advantages and collaboration [16][20]. - The event aims to effectively integrate global semiconductor resources, deepen supply-demand connections, and foster collaborative innovation, achieving a balance between "display" and "empowerment" [16][20].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has found support near the 10-day moving average and has begun to rebound, recovering to the 5-day moving average by the close [1] - The index has surpassed its highest point in the past decade, while most sector indices are still significantly below their 2021 peaks, indicating potential for catch-up in other indices like CSI 300 and ChiNext [1] - Recent catalysts across various industries, such as the launch of downstream power stations and advancements in AI and robotics, have increased market risk appetite, suggesting a more optimistic outlook [1] Sector Highlights - The technology sector has seen a rise in interest, with a shift from defensive stocks to growth-oriented technology investments expected [2] - The AI sector is anticipated to present thematic opportunities, particularly following the AI conference showcasing new technologies [2] - The robotics industry is projected to expand, with a focus on domestic production and integration into daily life, creating opportunities in related components like sensors and controllers [2] - The semiconductor industry continues to trend towards domestic production, with attention on semiconductor equipment and materials [2] - The military industry is expected to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already visible in quarterly reports [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a growth phase after several years of adjustment, with positive profit growth expected to continue into 2025 [2] Market Performance - The market showed resilience with the ChiNext 50 index leading the gains, reaching new highs [3] - Overall market performance was mixed, with a balance between rising and falling stocks, while sectors such as telecommunications and defense showed strong gains [3] - Underperforming sectors included coal, agriculture, textiles, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a divergence in sector performance [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 Taihu Talent Development Conference opened in Wuxi, focusing on the establishment of a talent aggregation area for the integrated circuit industry, covering a total area of 150 square kilometers [1] - Wuxi has developed a complete industrial chain in the integrated circuit sector, including chip design, wafer manufacturing, packaging testing, equipment materials, and supporting services, with nearly 80% of the city's integrated circuit companies located in the Wuxi High-tech Zone [1] - The talent aggregation area aims to enhance the integration of industry and talent, with plans to attract over 4,000 young university graduates and more than 500 high-skilled talents annually over the next three years, targeting a total of 85,000 talents in the integrated circuit industry and an industry scale of 210 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The conference theme is "Patriotic Struggle for a Smart Future," lasting for three days and featuring 10 sub-events [1] - A total of 600 projects from domestic and overseas alumni enterprises are participating, with a cumulative talent fund scale of 10 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC is positioned as a leading domestic wafer foundry in China, with a focus on both advanced process technology and the expansion of mature processes, benefiting from local demand and geopolitical factors [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, SMIC achieved revenue of $2.247 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 28.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.8% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $188 million, showing a significant year-over-year growth of 161.92% [1]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 22.5%, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter and exceeding guidance [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The majority of SMIC's production capacity is focused on mature processes, with advanced processes (≤14nm) accounting for only 1.7% of total capacity, highlighting the strategic importance of advanced nodes for AI infrastructure [1]. - The company is benefiting from local demand for high-end chips, as domestic IC design firms prefer to collaborate with local foundries due to export controls affecting foreign competitors [2]. Product and Revenue Structure - In Q1 2025, 12-inch wafer manufacturing accounted for approximately 78.1% of revenue, while 8-inch wafers made up 21.9% [2]. - The shift towards higher-value products, particularly in advanced processes, is expected to enhance revenue structure and gross margin levels [2]. Industry Trends - The trend of localization in manufacturing is driving growth in mature processes, particularly in the automotive sector, as international suppliers seek partnerships with Chinese foundries [3]. - SMIC is projected to benefit from the "China for China" supply chain strategy, which is expected to accelerate the development of diverse platforms [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for SMIC are estimated at $9.451 billion, $10.86 billion, and $11.998 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at $743 million, $948 million, and $1.069 billion [3]. - A target price of HKD 63.3 per share has been set based on a 3x PB valuation for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in advanced process foundry services in mainland China [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading domestic wafer foundry in China, with a focus on both advanced process technology and mature process expansion [5]. - The company has achieved a significant revenue milestone, with quarterly revenues exceeding $2 billion for three consecutive quarters, indicating a positive trend in fundamentals [5][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the localization of manufacturing and the increasing demand for advanced chips due to geopolitical factors [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at $9.451 billion, $10.860 billion, and $11.998 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 10% [25][32]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are $743 million, $948 million, and $1.069 billion, reflecting growth rates of 51%, 28%, and 13% [25][32]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 19.5%, 20%, and 20.5% from 2025 to 2027 [25]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is a core beneficiary of high-end chip orders as domestic IC design firms increasingly collaborate with local foundries [5]. - The advanced process capacity in mainland China is currently low, with only 1.7% of capacity at 14nm and below, indicating a strategic opportunity for the company [5][18]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its ability to produce advanced nodes, which are critical for AI infrastructure [5][18]. Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a target price of HKD 63.3 per share based on a 3x price-to-book (PB) valuation for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in advanced process foundry services in mainland China [6][27].