稀土行业简报 | 2025/09 www.leadleo.com 报告标签：出口管制、中美贸易、战略资源、美国关税 2025年9月 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性文件（在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。未经头豹 研究院事先书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式擅自复制、再造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究 院保留采取法律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院"或"头豹"的商号、商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名 称之外的其他分支机构，也未授权或聘用其他任何第三方代表头豹研究院开展商业活动。 1 头豹市场简报 | 2025/09 稀土 Q1：什么是稀土？有什么主要应用？ ◼ 稀土元素作为现代"工业味精"，在国防军事和新能源等领域具有不可替代的重要地位和巨大市场需求 根据国际纯粹与应用化学联合会定义，稀土元素包含钪、钇及镧系元素共17种，但在地球化学和矿产资源领域通常排除人造 稀少的钷元素和归属稀散元素的钪元素。依据中华人民共和国国家标准《稀土术语》（GB/T 15676-2015），实际应 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the new materials industry [7]. Core Insights - The new materials sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in November 2025, with a decline of 4.03% compared to the CSI 300's decline of 2.70%, resulting in a 1.33 percentage point lag [7][11]. - The sector's trading volume was 22,734.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.55% decrease from the previous month [7]. - The semiconductor materials segment continues to show growth, with global semiconductor sales reaching $69.47 billion in September 2025, marking a 25.1% year-on-year increase [42][43]. - The report highlights significant growth in the export volume and value of industrial diamonds in October, with exports amounting to 1.39 million tons and a value of $19.7 million, representing a 16.91% year-on-year increase [51]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The new materials index's performance in November was weaker than the CSI 300, with a decline of 4.03% [11]. - Most stocks in the new materials sector experienced declines, with 113 out of 170 stocks falling [18]. - The sector's valuation decreased, with the new materials index's PE ratio at 28.96, down 6.81% from the previous month [22]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking - In October, the CPI turned from decline to growth, increasing by 0.2% year-on-year, while the PPI's decline narrowed to 2.1% [30][31]. - Basic metal prices showed mixed results in November, with copper down 0.81% and tin up 3.54% [37]. - The global semiconductor market continues to grow, with a 25.1% year-on-year increase in sales [42]. - The export of superhard materials showed a significant increase in October, with a notable rise in export value [51]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes the issuance of an action plan for the upgrade of the non-ferrous metal industry in Henan Province [1]. - The establishment of a diamond wafer factory by Diamond Foundry is highlighted as a significant development in the new materials sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company is addressing the challenge of underutilized light rare earth resources in China by adopting a "nanomaterial" strategy to enhance the quality and application of these resources, transitioning from quantity-based to quality-driven utilization [1][6]. Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - The company has developed a "continuous multi-phase interface reaction technology" that overcomes traditional production bottlenecks, enabling stable mass production of various nanomaterials [1][2]. - A thousand-ton production line for nanoreactor catalyst materials has been established, producing materials with high specific surface area and excellent stability, significantly outperforming traditional materials [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - In the petroleum refining sector, the use of nanolant carbonate as a key component in heavy oil cracking catalysts can increase conversion rates by 4.42 percentage points and total liquid yield by 2.59 percentage points, resulting in an estimated annual economic benefit of 8.84 billion yuan based on projected crude oil processing volumes [2]. - In the ammonia synthesis sector, the company’s catalysts can save energy costs of 120 million yuan annually and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 300,000 tons, contributing to national energy security and carbon neutrality goals [2]. Group 3: R&D and Industrialization System - The company has established a comprehensive R&D and industrialization system, creating an efficient closed-loop from research and development to application and feedback, which supports continuous technological innovation [4][6]. - The collaboration with a high-level academic team and experienced industrialization personnel has laid a solid foundation for leading industry technology iterations and building an open platform for nanomaterials [4]. Group 4: Strategic Contribution - The company is contributing to the high-quality development of China's rare earth industry through technological innovation, enhancing the core value chain from resources to materials and products [6]. - By precisely reshaping the genetic makeup of rare earth materials using nanotechnology, the company is strengthening national strategic resource security and contributing to the establishment of a high-end rare earth industry [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth's stock surged by 5% on August 28, with a total market value returning to 200 billion yuan, approaching the historical high of September 2021, driven by the company's mid-year performance report indicating a return to growth after two years of decline [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses saw exaggerated increases of 1951.52% and 5644.93% respectively, influenced by a low base from the previous year and an increase in both volume and price of main products [2][7]. - Northern Rare Earth achieved a net profit of 930 million yuan in the first half of the year, with sell-side institutions raising the full-year profit forecast to between 2.4 billion and 3 billion yuan [2][7]. Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a temporary regulation on rare earth mining and separation, which is expected to optimize supply in the industry [2][9]. - Demand from emerging sectors such as wind power, electric vehicles, and humanoid robots continues to grow, contributing to an improved supply-demand relationship in the rare earth market [2][9][10]. Price and Volume Trends - The prices of key products like lanthanum oxide, cerium oxide, and neodymium praseodymium have shown slight increases, with neodymium praseodymium rising from 405,000 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 443,000 yuan/ton by March this year [5][6]. - Sales volumes for rare earth products, including rare earth metals and functional materials, have also increased significantly, with rare earth metal product sales rising by 32.33% [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain profit growth in the second half of the year, although the rate of increase may not match the first half's extraordinary growth due to anticipated price recovery in the rare earth market [7][11]. - The magnetic materials sector is projected to continue its growth, with demand expected to increase by around 10% annually, driven by trends in green technology and electric-driven applications [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of Northern Rare Earth's stock, which surged by 5% on August 28, is attributed to the company's mid-year financial results, marking a return to growth after two years of decline in 2023 and 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Northern Rare Earth reported a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 1951.52% and a non-recurring net profit increase of 5644.93%, largely due to a low base from the previous year and an increase in both volume and price of main products [1][6]. - The company achieved a net profit of 930 million yuan in the first half of the year, with expectations for full-year profits adjusted to between 2.4 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan [1][7]. Market Dynamics - The release of the "Interim Measures for Total Quantity Control Management of Rare Earth Mining and Separation" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to optimize the supply side of the industry [1][9]. - Demand for rare earth products is being driven by emerging sectors such as wind energy, electric vehicles, and humanoid robots, with the overall domestic demand remaining stable [4][9]. Price Trends - The prices of key products such as lanthanum oxide and neodymium oxide have seen increases, with neodymium oxide rising from 405,000 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 443,000 yuan/ton by March this year [6]. - The average price of neodymium oxide in the first half of the year reached 421,000 yuan/ton, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, while the price of cerium oxide surged by 57.2% [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Northern Rare Earth's profit growth will continue in the second half of the year, although the rate of increase may not match the extraordinary growth seen in the first half [7]. - The magnetic materials sector is expected to maintain a demand growth rate of around 10% annually, supported by trends in green technology and electric-driven applications [9][10]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The stock price of Northern Rare Earth has risen significantly, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 165%, and the latest share price nearing historical highs [2][10]. - Following the release of the half-year report, there has been a decrease in "buy" ratings from analysts, with more "hold" and "recommend" ratings, indicating a belief that the current valuation may be relatively reasonable [11].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth has seen a significant stock price increase of 5% on August 28, bringing its market capitalization back to 200 billion yuan, approaching its historical high from September 2021, driven by the company's mid-year performance report which indicates a return to growth after two consecutive years of decline [2][3] Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses showed exaggerated growth rates of 1951.52% and 5644.93% respectively, influenced by a low base from the previous year and an increase in both volume and price of main products [2][8] - Northern Rare Earth achieved a net profit of 930 million yuan in the first half of the year, with sell-side institutions raising their full-year profit expectations to between 2.4 billion and 3 billion yuan [3][9] Market Dynamics - The recent release of the "Interim Measures for Total Quantity Control of Rare Earth Mining and Separation" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to optimize the supply side of the industry [3][10] - Demand from emerging sectors such as wind power, new energy vehicles, and humanoid robots continues to grow, contributing to an improved supply-demand relationship in the rare earth market [3][10] Price Trends - The average price of key products like lanthanum oxide and neodymium oxide has seen increases, with neodymium oxide rising from 405,000 yuan per ton at the end of last year to 443,000 yuan per ton by March this year [7][8] - The average price of neodymium oxide in the first half of the year reached 421,000 yuan per ton, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, while the price of cerium oxide surged by 57.2% [7][8] Sales Performance - The sales volume of rare earth products has significantly increased, with the sales of rare earth metals rising by 32.33% and functional materials by 17.93% year-on-year [8] - The company has ended its two-year decline in revenue and profit, marking a turning point in its performance [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue seeing profit growth in the second half of the year, although the rate of increase may not match the first half's extraordinary figures due to anticipated price recovery in the rare earth market [9] - Projections suggest that profit growth for 2025 could remain between 140% and 210%, contingent on market conditions [9] Industry Valuation - The magnetic materials index has surpassed its 2015 peak, with the price-to-earnings ratio reaching around 80 times [12] - Northern Rare Earth's stock price has risen to 56.14 yuan, nearing its previous high of 60.58 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 164.89% [12]

Group 1 - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 18.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.24%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 931 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1951.52% [1] - The increase in net profit is attributed to rising prices of key products, with average prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide, cerium oxide, and lanthanum oxide increasing by 13.1%, 57.2%, and 9.8% respectively [1] - The company has seen a rise in sales volume across various product categories, including rare earth oxides and magnetic materials, with sales volumes increasing by 15.71% to 20,161.88 tons for rare earth oxides and 32.33% to 22,397.95 tons for rare earth metals [1] Group 2 - The company is advancing its green smelting upgrade projects, with the second phase of construction underway and the first phase nearing completion [2] - Key projects such as the 8,000-ton and 12,000-ton metal projects have been completed and are gradually being put into production, indicating ongoing expansion in production capacity [2] - The company is also working on various other projects, including a 50,000-ton magnetic alloy project and a 3,000-ton magnetic body project, which are currently under construction [2] Group 3 - The recent implementation of the supply-side reform document is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in the rare earth industry [3] - The demand for praseodymium-neodymium oxide is projected to grow, with expected global demand of 117,000 tons in 2025 and 126,900 tons in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.7% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward due to strong downstream demand, projecting net profits of 2.41 billion yuan, 3.43 billion yuan, and 4.23 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 18.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.24%, and net profit of 0.931 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 1951.52% [1]. - The growth in profit is attributed to rising prices of key products, reduced processing costs, and increased sales volume across various product categories [1][3]. - The company is advancing several key projects, including the second phase of its green smelting upgrade project and various metal production projects, which are expected to enhance production capacity [2]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the rare earth industry are expected to remain tight, supported by new applications in robotics and flying cars, with projected demand for praseodymium-neodymium oxide expected to grow significantly in the coming years [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.866 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.931 billion yuan, with major product prices increasing significantly [1]. - The average prices for key products such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 13.1%, while sales volumes for various rare earth products increased by 15.71% to 45.41% [1]. Project Developments - The company is actively pursuing multiple projects, including the completion of several metal production projects and the initiation of new ones, which are expected to contribute to future growth [2]. Market Outlook - The recent regulatory framework from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to support a balanced supply-demand situation in the rare earth sector, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 52% since the beginning of the year [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward for 2025-2027, reflecting strong demand and anticipated price increases for rare earth products [3].