宏观专题 稳中有进态势持续——10 月经济数据解读 2025 年 12 月 18 日 【宏观观点】 10 月国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，尽管供需层面有所降 温，但仍存在结构性亮点。 【风险提示】 证书编号：S1160525020006 证券分析师：杨雅婷 证书编号：S1160525100004 联系人：李沅芷 相关研究 《黄金如何定价？——三轮黄金上涨周期 复盘》 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王笑笑 2025.11.17 《美债的远虑与近忧》 2025.11.16 《"十五五"时期政策主线展望——"十五 五"系列报告二》 2025.10.17 《美联储降息期，资产谁涨谁跌？》 2025.10.13 《新发展阶段宏观环境的变化——"十五 五"系列报告一》 2025.09.22 观 研 究 / 宏 观 专 题 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 "两新"带动效应减弱，服务类消费保持增长。10 月受中秋国庆假期、 "电商节"带动，服务类消费表现亮眼。但是，"两新"产品销量减少， 主要是去年高基数和今年补贴减少双重影响，政策的带动效应有所减 弱。展望后续，消费动能仍需政策呵护。 固定资 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-11 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量 篇》 - 2025.12.8 宏观研究 出口韧性不改，中欧合作深化应具有持续性 核心观点 11 月出口增速超预期回升，预计全年出口保持较高韧性，成为经 济增长的重要贡献项。（1）从主要贸易伙伴的出口贡献看，我国对欧 盟、日本、韩国出口回升，是支撑当月出口的主要原因；对美国出口 延续弱势；对东盟出口增速因基数走高而有所回落。我们理解，我国 与欧盟经贸合作加强，或者体现了全球贸易格局调整下的贸易转移效 应，我们在前期报告中多次强调；11 月我国对日本出口增长，或因日 本错误言论，日本部分企业存在"抢进口"行为，同时日本物价高企， 我国出口日本的商品具有较为明显价格优势；11 月我国对韩国出口增 速回升，应该是我国出口商品具有价格优势。（2）从重点商品来看， 汽车、集成电路 ...

Core Viewpoint - In November, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1% [2][46] Group 1: Export Strength in Midstream - The export growth rate rebounded significantly in November, with a 7 percentage point increase compared to the previous month, influenced by base effects and resilient demand [4][13] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders showed a substantial recovery across all industries, indicating improved export demand [4][14] - The overall growth momentum has marginally recovered to seasonal averages, with a three-month moving average of 1.1% in November, slightly below the historical average of 1.4% [4][14] Group 2: Category Analysis - Exports are strong in electromechanical products, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.9% from January to November, contributing 87% to the overall export growth [8][20] - The "three main electromechanical products" (cars, ships, integrated circuits) have seen export growth rates exceeding 15% [8][21] - Labor-intensive products, in contrast, showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.3% from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth [8][20] Group 3: Regional Analysis - Exports to emerging markets are strong, while exports to the US are weak, with a year-on-year decline of -28.8% in November [29][56] - The share of exports to the US has decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5% [30][63] - If US import demand stabilizes, China's exports to the US may rebound significantly due to low base effects [30][31] Group 4: Future Export Resilience - In December, the elevated base may lead to a 2-3 percentage point adjustment pressure on year-on-year readings [4][37] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with the electronic supply chain likely to continue supporting growth [4][37] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to maintain a stable external demand environment, supporting strong resilience in electromechanical exports [4][38]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in November exports is primarily attributed to the dissipation of short-term supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand [2][7][30] Export Analysis - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year (YoY) in USD terms, a notable recovery from a decline of 1.1% in October, driven by factors such as increased working days and the reduction of "production rush" effects [2][6][7] - The increase in working days in November (up by 2 days YoY) and the tapering off of the "production rush" phenomenon contributed significantly to the export rebound [2][7] - Exports to emerging economies showed a marked recovery in November, with exports to Africa and Latin America rising by 17.1 percentage points (pct) and 12.8 pct respectively, despite no significant improvement in demand from these regions [2][11] - The export of goods such as food, steel, and auto parts, which had seen significant declines in October, rebounded in November, with respective increases of 34 pct, 18.7 pct, and 13.6 pct [3][18] Import Analysis - Imports also showed a recovery in November, with a YoY increase of 1.9%, up by 0.9 pct from the previous month [3][25] - Processing trade imports surged by 9.2 pct to 13.9%, exceeding previous growth levels, indicating a rebound in supply conditions [3][25] - Major commodities like crude oil and electromechanical products saw improved import growth rates, with crude oil imports increasing by 8.4 pct to 8.1% [3][25][51] Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions, combined with ongoing improvements in external demand and China's competitive export advantages, is expected to support exports for the remainder of the year [4][30] - The potential for improved exports to the U.S. is bolstered by the easing of tariffs and the likelihood of inventory replenishment in the U.S. market [4][30] - Continued industrialization in emerging markets is anticipated to drive demand for imported production materials, further supporting China's export of intermediate and capital goods [4][30] Regular Tracking - In November, both exports and imports showed signs of recovery, with notable increases in consumer electronics and light industrial products [5][37] - Capital goods exports exhibited mixed results, with intermediate goods like auto parts and integrated circuits showing growth [5][40] - Exports to non-U.S. developed economies and emerging markets increased, while exports to the U.S. declined [5][47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in exports in November is primarily supported by the dissipation of short-term supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand [3][10][82] Export Data Summary - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3% and recovering from a decline of 1.1% in October [2][9][82] - The rebound in exports is attributed to factors such as an increase in working days and the reduction of "production rush" effects, which had previously impacted supply [3][10][82] - The increase in working days in November (up by 2 days year-on-year) contributed significantly to the export recovery [3][10][82] Country-Level Analysis - Regions that previously experienced significant supply shocks saw notable rebounds in exports in November, indicating that the easing of supply disruptions was a key driver [3][21][82] - Exports to emerging economies showed a clear recovery in November, with exports to Africa and Latin America increasing by 17.1 and 12.8 percentage points, respectively [3][21][82] - Despite the rebound, there was no significant improvement in demand from these emerging economies, as indicated by stable PMI readings in South Africa and Brazil [3][21][82] Commodity Export Trends - Commodities that had previously shown significant export volatility also experienced a notable recovery in November, with food, steel, and auto parts exports rebounding sharply [4][29][83] - The export growth rates for consumer electronics and light industrial products also improved significantly in November after substantial declines in October [4][29][83] Import Data Summary - Imports in November increased by 1.9% year-on-year, recovering from a previous expectation of 2.9% [2][9][82] - Processing trade imports saw a significant rise of 9.2 percentage points to 13.9%, indicating a recovery in trade performance due to the easing of supply disruptions [4][37][82] - Major commodities such as crude oil and electromechanical products also showed improved import growth rates in November [4][37][82] Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions, combined with ongoing improvements in external demand and China's competitive export advantages, is expected to support exports for the remainder of the year [5][45][46] - The potential for improved exports to the U.S. is bolstered by the easing of tariffs and the possibility of inventory replenishment in the U.S. market [5][45][46] - Continued industrialization in emerging markets is anticipated to drive demand for intermediate and capital goods, further supporting China's export performance [5][45][46] Regular Tracking - November saw a general recovery in both exports and imports, with notable increases in consumer electronics and light industrial products [6][71][82] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with intermediate goods like auto parts and integrated circuits experiencing growth [6][59][68] - Exports to non-U.S. developed economies and emerging markets showed positive trends, while exports to the U.S. declined [6][68][71]

Group 1: Export Data Overview - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3% and recovering from a previous decline of -1.1% in October[7] - The rise in exports is attributed to the easing of supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand[2] - The number of working days in November increased by 2 days compared to the previous year, contributing to the export rebound[2] Group 2: Import Data Overview - November imports rose by 1.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.9% but up from 1% in October[7] - Processing trade imports surged by 9.2 percentage points to 13.9%, indicating a recovery in trade activity[26] - Major commodities like crude oil saw a rebound in import growth, with an increase of 8.4 percentage points to 8.1%[26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Consumer electronics exports grew by 5.1 percentage points to 3.3%, with significant contributions from mobile phones and LCD display modules[37] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with general machinery and medical instruments increasing, while shipbuilding exports fell significantly[43] - Exports to emerging markets, particularly Africa and Latin America, saw notable increases of 17.1 and 12.8 percentage points, reaching 27.7% and 15% respectively[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions and ongoing competitive advantages for Chinese exports are expected to support export growth in the coming months[30] - Potential improvements in exports to the U.S. are anticipated due to reduced tariffs and ongoing inventory replenishment needs[30] - Continued industrialization in emerging economies is likely to drive demand for intermediate and capital goods from China[30]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the trends in China's LCD module industry, focusing on import and export statistics for September 2025 [1] Import and Export Data - In September 2025, China imported 101 million LCD display modules, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with an import value of $90.2 million, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% [1] - The export figures for the same month show that China exported 182 million LCD display modules, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, with an export value of $2.756 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 17% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services, including feasibility studies and customized reports [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the current market status and future trends of the recycled pulp industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Import and Export Data - In September 2025, China imported 101 million liquid crystal display (LCD) modules, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with an import value of $902 million, which is a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% [1] - In the same month, China exported 182 million LCD modules, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, with an export value of $2.756 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions through professional insights and market acumen [1]

Core Insights - China's total goods trade value for the first ten months of the year reached 37.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [1] - Exports amounted to 22.12 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.2%, while imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1] - In October alone, total goods trade saw a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports continuing to grow for five consecutive months at a rate of 1.4% [1] Trade Dynamics - Despite external volatility, China's exports have shown resilience, attributed to accelerated diversification of export markets, which has mitigated the impact of reduced exports to the U.S. [1] - Exports to ASEAN, as the largest trading partner, grew by 15.3%, significantly outpacing the overall export growth rate by 9.1 percentage points [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for over 51% of total trade, with an export growth rate of 11.4% [2] Sector Performance - The growth in exports is supported by China's industrial transformation, particularly in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles [2] - Mechanical and electrical products have consistently represented over 60% of total exports for the past four months, with significant growth in integrated circuits (24.7%), automobiles (14.3%), and ships (26%) [2] - The continuous increase in imports over the last five months indicates a faster growth rate in import volumes, providing a vital export destination for many developing and developed countries [3]

Group 1: Export Data Overview - October exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3.2% and previous value of 8.3%[1] - The month-on-month decline in exports was 7.1%, which is worse than the seasonal average decline of 3.2%[2] - Exports to emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa saw significant drops, with ASEAN exports down 4.7 percentage points to 11% and African exports down 46.1 percentage points to 10.5%[2] Group 2: Import Data Overview - October imports increased by 1% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1% and previous value of 7.4%[1] - The month-on-month decline in imports was 6.4 percentage points, reflecting supply disruptions[3] - Processing trade imports fell from 12% in September to 4.6% in October, indicating significant supply disturbances[3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Economic Factors - The decline in exports is attributed more to short-term supply disruptions rather than weakening external demand[2] - A reduction in working days in October (down 3 days compared to the previous month) exacerbated supply issues, particularly following the National Day holiday[2] - High-frequency export chain production indicators fell to -0.2%, aligning with the overall export decline of -1.1%[2] Group 4: Future Outlook - With easing US-China trade tensions and the expected recovery in supply, November exports are anticipated to rebound[4] - Exports to developed economies are showing a mixed performance, with US exports improving while those to the EU and UK are declining[4] - The ongoing industrialization and urbanization in emerging markets are expected to drive demand for intermediate and capital goods imports from China[4]