1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries show different trends, and investors need to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to specific situations [5][8][10] - Some industries may face price fluctuations and uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.52% to 111.240 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 108.165 yuan, the 5 - year main contract was flat at 105.915 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% to 102.478 yuan [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 1.66%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 2.72%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract rose 3.09% [7] - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9] 3.3 Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 977.28 with a 3.97% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 17,085 with a 10.86% increase [10] - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [10][11] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,120 - 3,240 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,280 - 3,300 yuan/ton [12] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound but with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [13][14] 3.5 Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 795 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder spot price was 680 yuan/ton [15] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may support prices, but the impact may be limited. From a technical perspective, iron ore futures may rebound in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [15][16] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated at high levels [17] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the supply may increase, and attention should be paid to the pressure. For coke, the supply is stable, and the increase in demand supports prices. From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [18][19] 3.7 Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.43% to 6,480 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.20% to 6,100 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price rose 80 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price rose 80 yuan/ton to 5,680 yuan/ton [20] - The cost of ferroalloys has limited downward space, and the overall oversupply pressure continues. The recent improvement in profitability in the main production areas weakens the cost support. The short - term surplus of silicon - iron may increase, and the inventory continues to accumulate [20] 3.8 Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the US delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and the possibility of negotiations between the US and Iran [21] - The increase in net long positions in CFTC futures and options shows that US funds are more optimistic about the future of crude oil. However, the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed, and the US and Iran may cease fire for a month for negotiations. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for INE crude oil [22][23] 3.9 Polyolefins - Last trading day, the Hangzhou PP market mostly declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE market also fell [24] - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure has increased, the futures fluctuate frequently, and the industry's operating rate has continued to decline. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for polyolefins [24][25] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.06%. The mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable at 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [26] - The current main contradiction is cost - driven. The short - term price may maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance in the second half of the month, the trend of crude oil prices, and changes in tire export orders [26][28] 3.11 Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.37%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 2.27%. The Shanghai spot price of whole - latex increased to around 16,300 yuan/ton [29] - The current core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the approaching domestic production area opening and slow demand recovery and inventory pressure. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and the price may maintain a wide - range oscillation [29][30] 3.12 PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell 4.41%, and the spot price in the East China region decreased by 250 yuan/ton [31] - The current core contradiction is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts, the start of domestic spring demand, and high inventory. In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price may oscillate strongly, but the upward space is restricted by high inventory. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength [31][33] 3.13 Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.06%, and the spot price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,880 yuan/ton [34] - The recent main contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price oscillates weakly, but the cost support and the arrival of the demand peak season limit the downward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the export policy will be adjusted and the demand connection after April [34][35] 3.14 PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell 4.22%. The PX profit has dropped significantly, and the PXN spread has dropped to around 65 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread has dropped to around 88 US dollars/ton [36] - Affected by the supply concerns of upstream raw materials, domestic refineries have reduced their loads. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are continuously compressed, and the processing fee has room for repair. The PX price may oscillate widely in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] 3.15 PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 4.15%. The PTA processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton [38] - Affected by the shrinkage of raw material supply, PTA production cuts have increased. The cost support has collapsed recently. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and changes in crude oil prices [38] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 6.23%. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 66.45%, and the inventory in some main ports in East China has increased [39][40] - The short - term Strait passage has loosened, and the import is expected to shrink. The inventory may gradually decrease, and there is support below. The short - term geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and cautious treatment is required, paying attention to the negotiation progress and Strait situation [40] 3.17 Short Fibers - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell 3.28%. The short - fiber device load has slightly decreased [41] - Recently, the short - fiber supply has declined, and the terminal factory inventory has decreased. The overall supply - demand has weakened slightly. The short - term still trades based on the cost logic. Attention should be paid to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and the resumption progress of downstream factories [41] 3.18 Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell 3.38%. The bottle - chip processing fee is adjusted to around 1,200 yuan/ton [42] - The supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, and the processing fee continues to repair. The manufacturer's price - holding intention is relatively strong. Due to the changeable Middle East situation, the price fluctuations of crude oil and PTA may increase. Cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation dynamics, and cost changes [42][43] 3.19 Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,240 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase [44] - The supply of soda ash remains high, the inventory has decreased to some extent, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The short - term price may oscillate steadily under emotional support [44] 3.20 Glass - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,064 yuan/ton with a 1.12% decrease [45] - The glass production line continues to shrink, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the downstream order recovery is slow. The cost support is still there, and the subsequent market sentiment may fluctuate [45][46] 3.21 Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,557 yuan/ton with a 1.27% decrease [47] - The supply of caustic soda has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The price of alumina has risen, which supports the price of caustic soda. The 50% and 32% caustic soda prices are bifurcated. Attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export order implementation, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [47][48] 3.22 Pulp - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,210 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase [49] - The port inventory of pulp continues to decrease, and the domestic supply has changed little. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The risk of needle - leaf pulp fluctuation is relatively large, and broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable with cost support [49] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 6.11% to 152,940 yuan/ton [50] - The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the demand in the consumer end is improving. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict [50] 3.24 Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,670 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase [51] - The inflation expectation has almost erased the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the global risk preference is suppressed. The supply of refined copper is at risk of contraction, and the demand has a solid bottom. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak oscillation with a bottom [51][52] 3.25 Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,810 yuan/ton with a 0.42% increase, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,962 yuan/ton with a 2.18% decrease [53] - Alumina shows a cost - driven passive rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The price of alumina may enter an oscillatory adjustment state, and the price of electrolytic aluminum may oscillate weakly, but there is support at the bottom [53][55] 3.26 Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,880 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease [56] - The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, and the domestic refined zinc production has increased. The real - estate sector may drag down the galvanizing field. The zinc price may be under pressure due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the strong - dollar logic [56][57] 3.27 Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,470 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [58] - The production of primary lead enterprises is increasing, and the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises is delayed. The demand is flat, and the lead price may run weakly due to the lack of fundamental highlights and macro - pressure on the non - ferrous sector [58][59] 3.28 Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.81% to 348,620 yuan/ton [60] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The supply of refined tin is slightly eased, and the demand has short - term support. The short - term price of tin has support below, but the overseas situation is still highly uncertain, and attention should be paid to risk control [60][61] 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 0.59% to 133,890 yuan/ton [62] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is still in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [62] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.60% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.97% to 8,594 yuan/ton [63] - Brazil's soybean harvest progress is over 60%, and the domestic soybean import has slowed down. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. The price of oil and meal may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [63][64] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current macro data is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market for various commodities shows different trends due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [6][9] - Different commodities have different market outlooks and investment strategies, including maintaining caution, waiting and seeing, looking for low - position buying opportunities, etc. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.43%, 0.11%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank carried out 137.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 16, with a net investment of 88.8 billion yuan [5] - **Economic Data**: From January to February, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3%, service industry production index increased by 5.2%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8%. Real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% [5] - **Outlook**: There is still some pressure in the future market, and it is necessary to remain cautious [6][7] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.06%, - 0.26%, - 0.62%, and - 0.21% respectively [8] - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved initial consensus. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, the Iranian situation is highly uncertain, and market volatility is expected to increase significantly [9] - **Strategy**: Temporarily hold an empty position and wait and see [10] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,118.34 with a decline of 1.29%, and the silver main contract closed at 20,301 with a decline of 2.97% [11] - **Factors Affecting the Market**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the price. But due to the previous sharp rise and the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility will increase [11] - **Strategy**: Keep waiting and seeing [12] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of Tangshan billet is 2980 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar is 3130 - 3250 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 - 3280 yuan/ton [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. In the long - term, the real estate industry is in a downward trend, and rebar demand is decreasing year - on - year. In the medium - term, it is entering the peak demand season. Supply pressure is reduced, and inventory changes are worthy of attention [14] - **Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities and manage positions carefully [14][15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. PB powder port spot price is 795 yuan/ton, and super special powder is 675 yuan/ton [16] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. After the key meeting, iron ore demand may expand, but the supply in the first two months increased by 10% year - on - year, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of the past five years [16] - **Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities and manage positions carefully [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and consolidated [18] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is weak. Coke supply is stable, and demand may expand after the key meeting [18] - **Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [18][19] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.77% to 6162 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 1.21% to 5872 yuan/ton [20] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The output of ferroalloys is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, but the supply is still loose, and inventory is accumulating [20] - **Strategy**: Consider taking long - position profit - taking opportunities after a rapid short - term price rebound [22] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the expansion of the US - Israel - Iran war and the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz [23] - **Market Data**: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. The Iranian parliament said that Ukraine has become a legitimate target for Iran [23] - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. Although the Iranian oil export is not affected and the tension between the US and Iran seems to ease, the prospect of global oil supply shortage still exists [24] - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market fluctuated higher, and the Yuyao LLDPE price rose 50 - 150 yuan/ton [26] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the contraction of polyolefins is obvious, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.52%. In the long - term, imports may decrease in April, but new domestic and foreign production facilities are planned to be put into operation, and supply pressure will be gradually released. Downstream demand shows the characteristics of "rising start - up but cautious purchasing" [26] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long opportunities [27] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.60%, and the price of Shandong mainstream butadiene rubber was adjusted down to 15200 - 15400 yuan/ton [28] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The production cost of butadiene has soared, and some devices are planned for maintenance. The supply of butadiene rubber is high, and demand is in the recovery stage. The cost is seriously inverted, and inventory is turning to destocking [28][29] - **Outlook**: Strong - side oscillation [30] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.71%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract fell 0.44%. The Shanghai spot whole - latex price was stable at around 16800 yuan/ton [31] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the weekend Middle - East geopolitical conflict, which strengthens the substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main production areas are in the low - production season, and demand is in the recovery stage but lower than last year. Inventory is still in the accumulation stage, but the accumulation rate may slow down [31] - **Outlook**: Strong - side oscillation (supported by substitution demand and low - production season in the short - term, focusing on inventory destocking and demand recovery in the medium - term) [31] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.09%, and the spot price in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton [32] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core drivers are the concerns about energy and raw material supply due to overseas geopolitical conflicts and the start of domestic spring demand. The supply capacity utilization rate is high, demand is gradually starting but at a low seasonal level, the cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and inventory is in the accumulation stage [32][33] - **Outlook**: Strong - side oscillation [34] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.32%, and the Shandong Linyi spot price was 1890 yuan/ton [35] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The core drivers are the global urea supply disturbance caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and domestic spring plowing demand. Supply is stable, demand is released intensively, cost is stable, and inventory is decreasing [35] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [36] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose 0.47% and fell 3.8% at night [37] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, PX load decreased, downstream polyester and terminal start - up are gradually increasing. Supply may be tightened due to plant shutdowns and spring inspections, and it is expected to enter the destocking channel [37] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, and consider cautious low - position operations, paying attention to oil price changes and situation development [37] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 0.32% and fell 3.25% at night. The processing fee rose to around 300 yuan/ton [38] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply load decreased, demand load increased, and the 3 - month supply - demand expectation may improve. The price is mainly affected by the cost side, and the geopolitical situation is uncertain [38] - **Strategy**: Consider cautious operations, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and oil price changes [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 3.31% and fell 2.76% at night [39] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply load decreased, imports are expected to decrease, and inventory is expected to be destocked. The downstream polyester start - up increased, and the geopolitical situation is highly uncertain [39] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation and the situation of the Strait, and the subsequent elasticity depends on the spring inspection rhythm and demand fulfillment [39] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract rose 0.94% [40] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply load increased, downstream terminal start - up increased, raw material inventory decreased, and the cost side is strong but there is a risk of high - level correction [40] - **Outlook**: Trade based on the cost side in the short - term, and pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose 7.44% [41] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Many bottle - chip manufacturers stopped selling and cut contract volumes, inventory decreased sharply, supply is expected to shrink, demand increased, and the cost side is strong [41] - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly following the cost side, with increased volatility, and consider cautious low - position participation, paying attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [41] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1256 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [42] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Soda ash production increased slightly, inventory decreased slightly, downstream demand is average, and the profitability of associated alkali manufacturers improved [42] - **Outlook**: The fundamental support is not significant, and the market sentiment fluctuates. Pay attention to risk control [43] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton, down 2.74% [44] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production lines decreased, inventory decreased slightly, demand recovery is slow, and the spot trading atmosphere is weak [44] - **Outlook**: The long - short game intensifies after the price reaches a relatively high level. Pay attention to position control and follow - up changes in the Middle - East situation [44] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 2547 yuan/ton, down 0.62% [45] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply decreased slightly, inventory decreased, some manufacturers may have maintenance plans in March, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The long - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may affect overseas production and increase China's export advantage [45][46] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [46] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5232 yuan/ton, down 0.68% [47] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic production may decrease due to maintenance, port inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price of coniferous pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, and the price of broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable [47][48] - **Outlook**: The downstream demand recovery is slow, and the follow - up to the price increase is insufficient [48] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 1.75% to 159620 yuan/ton [49] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Affected by the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the global lithium resource balance is being reshaped. Supply may be in a tight balance, and demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. Inventory is gradually decreasing [49] - **Outlook**: The price has strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Pay attention to the follow - up of the Zimbabwean embargo and the US - Iran geopolitical situation [49] Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100190 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [50] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the US dollar is strong, and the macro - level pressure is significant. The mine end is tight, and the supply in March is expected to reach a record high, with high inventory. Downstream demand has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly [50][51] - **Outlook**: Weak - side oscillation [52] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24970 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2989 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [53] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply pressure is high, and the cost support is limited. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict affects overseas production, and supply tightening is expected. Domestic downstream consumption has recovered, and inventory changes are different [53] - **Outlook**: Strong - side operation [54] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23880 yuan/ton, down 0.56% [55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic supply increased, overseas supply is disturbed, demand is expected to increase seasonally, but the actual recovery is uncertain, and inventory is increasing [55][56] - **Outlook**: Pressured oscillation [57] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16405 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [58] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The start - up of primary lead enterprises increased, the resumption of secondary lead is slow, and lead - battery enterprises have fully resumed work. However, geopolitical risks affect exports, and inventory is increasing [58] - **Outlook**: Pressured adjustment [59] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 2.43% to 381840 yuan/ton [60] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the supply situation is complex. The supply shortage has eased,

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation and geopolitical conflicts, with significant volatility. Different industries have different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to risk control [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, the performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 395 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 52 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will still be some pressure in the future, so it is necessary to be cautious [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The Shanghai Stock Exchange will increase the supply of institutional inclusiveness for technology - based enterprises. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is at a low level, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the great uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and wait for opportunities [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the great uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly, so it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Steel and Iron - Related Products - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure is reduced. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The demand for iron ore is suppressed by steel mill production restrictions, and the supply is in a weak pattern. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand is under pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The cost of ferroalloys is at a low level and the downward space is limited. The production has been at a low level since 2026, and the overall surplus pressure continues. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions after a rapid short - term price rebound [19]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in CFTC net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The limited opening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's consideration of laying mines support the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20][21]. - **Polyolefins**: On the previous trading day, the prices of polyolefins in the market fell. The downstream factories of polyolefins are resuming production, and the rigid demand for replenishment is increasing, which provides support for the price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities [23][24]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber futures fell. The cost of synthetic rubber is supported by the increase in crude oil prices and the expected maintenance of some devices in March. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the cost of synthetic rubber, and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber increases. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The market is affected by the overseas geopolitical conflict and the domestic seasonal off - season. It is expected that the disk will be in a strong - side shock [31]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and international supply - demand mismatches. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [33]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, and the PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the changes in oil prices and the situation [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand drive is general. The cost - side support is slightly weakened. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the demand resumption and inventory digestion [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The short - term geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost - side changes may intensify. The high inventory may suppress the short - term trend. It is recommended to be cautious and pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring inspection rhythm [39]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the cost is relatively strong, which may provide bottom support. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics and downstream factory resumption [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The bottle - chip supply is expected to shrink, and the export growth rate is increasing. The main logic is still on the cost side. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [42]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures fell. The supply of soda ash is loose, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is general. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk is likely to return to the fundamental logic. It is recommended to control risks [44][45]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The glass industry is in the stage of active capacity reduction, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk is in a high - position multi - empty game. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to the Middle - East situation [47][48]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures fell. The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The market may return to the fundamental logic, and the disk fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to the price of liquid chlorine and export transactions [51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The pulp inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend, the supply changes little, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and commodities, the procurement rhythm of downstream paper mills and capital trends [53]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, the supply is in a tight balance, and the demand is improving. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [56]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the supply elasticity of electrolytic copper is limited. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the copper price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [57]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The alumina market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the cost support is strengthened. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The aluminum price is expected to run strongly [58]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose slightly. The production of refined zinc is increasing moderately, the import is in a net inflow, the downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately, and the zinc price may be under pressure and in a shock [60]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply - demand mismatch is conducive to the de - stocking of primary lead, and the lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [61]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of refined tin is in a tight pattern, the demand is supported by emerging fields, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support below, but the overseas situation is uncertain, and the price volatility may increase [63]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The global nickel - mine supply is expected to be tight, the production cost is expected to rise, but the downstream consumption is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [64]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean - meal and soybean - oil futures fell. The export demand of soybeans is expected to improve, and the supply of soybeans is relatively loose. If the Middle - East conflict continues to rise, it is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions [66]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm - oil futures fell. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the inventory decreased. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: On the previous trading day, rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil futures fell. The import policy of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed products has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a relatively high or low level. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA expects a reduction in global cotton production in the new year, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term. The cotton price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [73]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. India's sugar production is expected to decrease, which is favorable for the market. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices on commodities [77]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The current inventory is low and the quality is poor, and the apple price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [80]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, pig futures fell. The national pig supply is relatively abundant, the consumption is weak, and the price is in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [82]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the feed - cost increase is expected. It is recommended to take partial profits on long - term short positions [84]. - **Corn and Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the supply is expected to be released after the festival. The demand for corn starch has recovered slightly, and it is expected to follow the corn market [85]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The shipping cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk has cooled down. It is recommended to pay attention to the external - market quotation, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [88].

2026 年 3 月 3 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜： 16 | | --- | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.55%报 112.740 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.530 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 106.080 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.464 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，3 月 2 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 190 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Global macro格局受四大重磅事件冲击，美以伊军事冲突成市场核心即时变量，需关注冲突烈度及对市场的影响，人民币汇率受央行政策和地缘冲突影响，短期或双向波动，长期升值趋势取决于国内经济和出口情况 [2][3] - 股指受两会和地缘政治局势影响，预计以短期情绪冲击为主，底部支撑强；国债存在上涨契机，但需关注市场环境；集运欧线受地缘冲突和船司挺价影响，预计震荡偏强 [6][7][9] - 碳酸锂短期预计在15 - 20万元/吨区间宽幅震荡，中长期价值支撑稳固；工业硅和多晶硅短期处于产能周期底部，需等待供需格局改善 [11][12][13] - 铝产业链受美伊冲突影响，铝价或震荡偏强，氧化铝震荡整理，铸造铝合金震荡偏强；铜价受库存和下游复工影响，上涨面临压力；锌价预计偏强震荡；镍不锈钢震荡偏强；锡价高位震荡；铅价震荡调整 [15][16][18] - 油料市场，二季度后大豆供应压力回归，菜粕或表现弱势；油脂市场受地缘冲突支撑，可寻找逢低看多机会 [26][27][28] - 燃料油期价有望强势冲高，沥青跟随成本上涨；铂金和钯金中长期牛市基础仍在，黄金和白银战略性看多 [30][32][34] - 纸浆和胶版纸期货可区间交易，纯苯或有低多机会；苯乙烯和LPG受地缘影响，成本支撑增强；甲醇受地缘冲突影响大；聚烯烃短期受情绪和成本驱动，PP基本面支撑强于PE [37][38][40] - 橡胶震荡回调，天胶中长期偏多，顺丁橡胶区间震荡；尿素受美伊战争影响，价格或上涨；玻璃纯碱基本面空间有限；丙烯受成本推动上涨 [50][51][54] - 螺纹和热卷受政策预期和高库存影响，短期内政策支撑盘面，但基本面偏弱；铁矿石供应压制价格，需求预期悲观；焦煤焦炭关注终端需求验证；硅铁和硅锰受消息面驱动上涨，但硅锰受高库存压制 [57][58][60] - 生猪现货持续下跌，可选择卖涨期权；棉花供需偏紧，建议回调布局多单；白糖基本面偏空，关注盘面能否站稳5300；鸡蛋短期窄幅震荡、稳中偏强；苹果关注节后消费和交割逻辑；红枣供需格局偏松，价格承压；原木可观望或低多 [65][66][76] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on the Middle East situation, including the Iran - US - Israel conflict, the impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Chinese government's meeting on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent one - sided appreciation expectations. Short - term exchange rate may show two - way fluctuations, and long - term appreciation depends on domestic economic recovery and export strength. Geopolitical conflicts may support the US dollar index [2][3] - **Stock Index**: Affected by the two sessions and geopolitical situation, short - term emotional shocks are expected, with strong bottom support [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is an opportunity for an increase, but the market environment needs to be monitored. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high prices in the short term [6][7][8] - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding behavior strengthen short - term support, but weak cargo volume limits the upside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9][10] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton. Long - term value is supported by downstream demand, but risks such as price increases affecting terminal economy need to be noted [11][12] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Currently at the bottom of the production cycle, waiting for supply - demand pattern improvement. Photovoltaic has long - term development potential [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The US - Iran conflict may cause short - term price fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to buy call options for aluminum and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for alumina. Cast aluminum alloy may follow the trend of aluminum [15][16][17] - **Copper**: Affected by high inventory and slow downstream resumption, price increase is restricted. It is advisable to use calendar spread strategies or buy out - of - the - money call options [18][20] - **Zinc**: Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and the turning point needs to be observed [22] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The trend is slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to US tariff disturbances and Indonesian supply [22][23] - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the impact of risk aversion on the market needs to be noted [23][24] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and interval operations are recommended [25] Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The supply pressure of soybeans will return in the second quarter, and rapeseed meal may be weak [26] - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by geopolitical conflicts, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [26][27][28] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by supply shock, cost, and logistics, the futures price is expected to rise strongly [30] - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost of crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are dominant [31] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The risk - aversion sentiment is fermented due to the Middle East geopolitical risk. The long - term bull market foundation remains, but position control is needed [32][33] - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion allocation value is prominent. It is recommended to go long strategically and pay attention to economic data and policy expectations [34][35] Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp futures are bearish due to inventory accumulation and weak cost support. Offset paper futures are affected by multiple factors and are in a range - bound state [37][38] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The cost support is enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and they are likely to follow the rise of crude oil [38][39] - **LPG**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the external market is strong and the internal market is weak. The focus is on the situation in the Middle East [39][40][41] - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact, and the supply and price are likely to be affected [41][42] - **Plastics and PP**: The cost support is strengthened by the Middle East conflict. PE is supply - strong and demand - weak in the short term, while PP has supply reduction expectations and stronger fundamental support [44][45] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and synthetic rubber is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply, demand, and inventory [50][74] - **Urea**: Affected by the US - Iran war, international and domestic prices may rise [51][52] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The fundamental space is limited, and price fluctuations are restricted [53][54] - **Propylene**: Driven by cost, the price is expected to rise, but the downstream acceptance needs to be observed [54][55] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by policy expectations and high inventory, the short - term policy supports the market, but the fundamental weakness limits the upside [57] - **Iron Ore**: The supply suppresses the price, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to be bearish but not to short [58][59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Enter the terminal demand verification period, and the real data is important. The price may face downward pressure if the supply recovers more than expected and the macro - sentiment weakens [60][61] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Driven by market rumors, silicon iron has a better fundamental situation, while silicon manganese is restricted by high inventory [61][62][63] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The spot price continues to decline, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [65] - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to foreign trade policies and export progress [66][67][68] - **Sugar**: The fundamental situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to whether the price can stand above 5300 [68][69] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and be slightly stronger in the short term, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70] - **Apples**: Pay attention to post - festival consumption and the delivery logic. The price may decline if the demand is weak [76][77] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure, likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [77][78] - **Logs**: The spot price has support, but the demand has not recovered significantly. Geopolitical factors may affect supply and cost. It is advisable to wait and see or go long at low prices [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. Pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival [7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillating pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [10][11]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the oscillating pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: There may be opportunities to go long in the low - range. Consider the low - cost and rigid cost conditions [18]. - **Crude Oil**: There is some progress in US - Iran negotiations, but geopolitical risks remain. It is advisable to hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply shortage in Singapore has eased, but there is still room for an upward movement due to the unresolved Iran risk. Hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: Be cautious in pre - holiday operations [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: Control positions before the holiday [30]. - **PVC**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [32]. - **Urea**: Expected to be oscillating and strong [33]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations during the Spring Festival [34]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, with a small inventory build - up expected. Be cautious, and pay attention to the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday [35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still pressure above, and it may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern. Be cautious and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: Trade based on the cost - end logic before the holiday. Be cautious and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory [37]. - **Bottle Chips**: Follow the cost - end trend. Be cautious before the holiday and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices and external market changes during the holiday [38]. - **Soda Ash**: Be cautious due to the off - season fundamentals. Hold light positions during the holiday [39]. - **Glass**: The market is generally loose. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday, paying attention to the return to fundamentals [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory situation has slightly improved. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday [41]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the impact on pre - holiday prices is temporarily dull. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Control risks [44]. - **Copper**: May experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: May be under pressure [47][48]. - **Zinc**: Will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. - **Tin**: There is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify. Control risks [54]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. - **Apples**: In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. - **Hogs**: Wait and see before the holiday due to the supply - demand imbalance [69][70]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. - **Logs**: The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5238 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the domestic supply also increased slightly. The downstream pre - holiday procurement ended, and the market entered a demand vacuum period. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.66% to 149,420 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption side has improved, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [44]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton, down 2.56%. The market sentiment declined, and the fundamentals weakened. The copper price may experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure [47][48]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 4.27% to 376,330 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, and there is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [54]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan/ton. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the cost is expected to rise. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 1.16% to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.22% to 8,082 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand continues to grow moderately, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. The supply may increase, and the export decreased. Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed followed the rise of US soybean oil futures but did not break through the resistance level. The Chinese import situation has changed, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [61][63]. Cotton - The domestic Zheng cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish. In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar rose and then fell; the overnight external raw sugar fell to a new low. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faces dual supply pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. Apples - The domestic apple futures oscillated. The current market is in a vacuum period. In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. Hogs - The main contract rose 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [69][70]. Eggs - The main contract rose 1.56% to 3,200 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. Corn and Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.83% to 2,320 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.51% to 2,572 yuan/ton. The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. Logs - The main 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The shipping volume has recovered, but the downstream demand is weakening. The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will still be some pressure, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held [8][9]. - For precious metals, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For ferroalloys, overall excess pressure continues, and after a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. - For crude oil, the rebound is expected to continue, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [19][20]. - For fuel oil, the upside still has room, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. - For polyolefins, cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. - For natural rubber, control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. - For PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up. Cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, it may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. - For short - fiber, trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost - side operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. - For soda ash, it should still be treated with caution [42]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. - For caustic soda, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. - For pulp, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. - For lithium carbonate, the downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. - For copper, the price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. - For aluminum, the price may be under pressure [49][50]. - For zinc, the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. - For tin, the price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. - For nickel, the first - grade nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. - For cotton, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. - For sugar, it is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. - For apples, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. - For live pigs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. - For eggs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be taken at high prices after the festival [74]. - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and wait patiently for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [75][77]. - For logs, the future demand expectation is still weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 40.35 billion yuan on that day. China's January CPI and PPI data showed certain trends. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held. Attention should be paid to risk control during the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment, and market volatility is expected to increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure still exists, and the inventory is higher than last year. The price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, the supply is in a certain situation, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand of downstream coke enterprises was cautious. The supply of coke was stable, but the demand was weak. They may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the overall excess pressure continues. After a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the repeated relationship between the US and Iran. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. Geopolitical risks increased, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [18][19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is weak, but the cost - side crude oil rebound drives the fuel oil price to rise. The risk in Iran is unresolved, and there is still room for the upside of fuel oil. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins showed certain trends. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the market will be greatly reduced, while some suppliers still actively ship. Cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, the supply capacity utilization rate was at a high level, the demand of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased but was still at a medium - high level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. After the previous pullback, it showed a strong - side fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the festival. Control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The price trend and inventory reduction speed depend on the demand recovery after the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weakening, and the cost is stable. The inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, the operating rate increased slightly, and the cost - side crude oil may have a driving force. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply side changed little, the demand side entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the cost - side support was limited. The processing fee was adjusted to the average level of previous years, and it may fluctuate in the short term. 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up, and cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall load continued to rise, the port inventory continued to build up, the downstream polyester was in seasonal maintenance, and the terminal loom load dropped to the lowest point. It may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply contracts, the terminal factory restocking decreases, and the loom load drops to the lowest point. The low inventory may provide bottom support. Trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The load decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate increases, and it is expected to follow the cost - side operation. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures closed flat. The fundamentals continued to be loose, the production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. It should still be treated with caution [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory of traders continued to build up, and the market was in a loose state. It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply was at a high level, the inventory was at a high level historically, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. The short - term rise was due to the entry of futures - cash merchants, and it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory continued to build up, the domestic supply increased slightly, the downstream demand was divided, and the market was inactive. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The domestic production resumption time in Jiangxi is still uncertain, the supply is in a tight - balance state, the demand of the energy - storage sector is prominent, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. The downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The capital market risk preference decreased, the terminal and processing enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the smelting production was at a high level, and the inventory was in the seasonal build - up stage. The price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures closed flat. The cost support of alumina is not strong, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, the aluminum production changes little, and the inventory build - up amplitude increases. The aluminum price may be under pressure [49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, the traditional seasonal inventory build - up is late, and the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose slightly. The supply is expected to be loose after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is steadily increasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, but the supply tightness is alleviated. The demand shows certain resilience. The price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, the cost is expected to rise, the policy risk in Indonesia increases, the downstream demand is weak, and the first - grade nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell slightly. The export demand expectation is optimistic, but the record - high yield of Brazilian soybeans brings competition. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the export volume decreased. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fluctuated. The planting area of rapeseed in Canada may be affected by profit concerns, and the domestic import policy and inventory situation are certain. Temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA report is bearish in the short term. Although the domestic harvest is good, the inventory build - up is less than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is resilient. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The global production increase expectation is strong, and the domestic market is under the pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The current market is in a vacuum period, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality decline. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The market supply exceeds demand, the consumption boost during the Spring Festival is limited, and the post - holiday supply may still face pressure. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level, the pre - holiday stocking is over. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. Gold is favored for its allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise has led to high speculative sentiment. The market volatility of precious metals is expected to increase significantly, and long positions should be liquidated for observation [11][12]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - The coke and coking coal futures may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [17]. - The ferro - alloy market has an overall surplus, but the cost has a certain bottom - support. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks remain. The capital is still bullish on crude oil, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. - The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding, so the fuel oil price has room to rise. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will shrink significantly, and pre - festival cautious operation is recommended [25][26]. - The synthetic rubber market may oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of logistics and infrastructure after the Lantern Festival and the inventory reduction rate of tire enterprises [27][28][29]. - The natural rubber market is in an oscillating trend. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, positions should be controlled [30][31]. - The PVC market may oscillate strongly. The key to price trends and inventory reduction lies in the post - Spring Festival demand recovery [32][33][34]. - The urea market may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and post - festival demand recovery [35]. - The PX market may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Cautious participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and fundamentals [36][37]. - The PTA market may oscillate in the short term. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in January and February. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38]. - The ethylene glycol market may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern in the short term. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39][40]. - The short - fiber market mainly trades based on the cost - end logic before the Spring Festival. Cautious observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [41]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end trend. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance devices [42][43]. - The soda ash market is in a slack season, and cautious treatment is still required [44]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [45][46][47]. - The caustic soda market has significant seasonal characteristics. Although the cost is expected to rise, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so cautious treatment is required [49][50]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival due to weak support [51]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control should be noted [52][53]. - The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [54][55]. - The aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. - The zinc price will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingot inventory accumulates [59][60]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - The tin price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies, and risk control should be noted [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. - For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. - The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. - For live pigs, pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. - For eggs, pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. - The corn and corn starch market: Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. - The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89]. Summary by Directory Pulp - The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,200 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand stagnated, and the market lacked trading basis. The price is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival [51]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main carbonate lithium contract rose 3.55% to 137,000 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption end is improving, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase [52][53]. Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,450 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. Due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals, the copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,625 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,490 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The zinc market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price will enter an adjustment period [59][60]. Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 4.18% to 385,140 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, the price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.91% to 134,820 yuan/ton. The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.33% to 2,729 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% to 8,114 yuan/ton. For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The market expects the inventory to decline in January. For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. Cotton - The previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. Sugar - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. Apple - The previous trading day, the domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract fell 0.69% to 11,565 yuan/ton. Pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose 0.03% to 2,909 yuan/500 kg. Pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.18% to 2,265 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.28% to 2,538 yuan/ton. Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 1.90%. The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Gold has allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue the weak oscillation pattern. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. - The coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall over - supply pressure, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens, and cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. - The urea price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. - The PTA market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. - The soda ash market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. - The glass market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. - The caustic soda market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. - The copper market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. - The aluminum market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. - The zinc market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. - The lead market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. - The tin market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. - The palm oil market may consider buying on dips [66]. - The rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets are recommended to wait and see for now [69]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. - The apple market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short term and strong in the medium and long term. It is recommended to go long in batches after a correction [77]. - The pig market is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the changes in supply and consumption around the Spring Festival [80]. - The egg market is recommended to wait and see, as the supply in February may remain at a relatively high level [83]. - The corn and corn starch markets are expected to follow the corn market. It is necessary to wait for the release of supply pressure [84]. - The log market shows a strong performance on the disk, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 64.5 billion yuan on the day. The service trade in 2025 showed steady growth [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends [8]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices fell. In 2025, domestic gold production increased, but consumption decreased. The US ISM service PMI index declined slightly [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and gold has allocation and hedging value. However, the short - term market fluctuations may increase, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak oscillation. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure increases. The prices may continue the weak oscillation pattern [13]. - Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern is weak [15]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The supply of coking coal may decline during the Spring Festival, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose slightly. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the short - term oversupply has weakened [19]. - After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose first and then fell. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC + may maintain the decision to suspend production increases in March [20]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is strong, and the trading volume of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil paper futures increased [23]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens [26]. - Cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The price of raw materials rose, the supply decreased slightly, the demand improved year - on - year, and the inventory increased [28]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The overseas supply is shrinking, the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [31]. - The market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The price was supported by exports and costs, but the high inventory and weak demand restricted the price increase [33]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell slightly. The supply increased, the demand was driven by exports and the market sentiment, and the industry profit increased [37]. - The price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, and the PX operating rate increased slightly [39]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased seasonally, and the processing fee rose to the average level of previous years [41]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The overall operating load increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream polyester entered the seasonal maintenance period [42]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply decreased, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was at a low level [44]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee rebounded, the supply was expected to decrease, and the export increased [45]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [46]. - The market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The number of production lines decreased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [48]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production was at a high level, the inventory was still at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak [49]. - The market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory continued to accumulate, the domestic supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [52]. - The market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [53]. - The market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell. The geopolitical events increased the risk - aversion demand, the mine supply was disturbed, and the terminal consumption entered the off - season [54]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell, and alumina futures rose. The alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production growth is limited, and the demand is weak [56]. - The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell. The supply tightened, the demand was weak, and the social inventory has not yet started to accumulate [58]. - The market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply was restricted by the shortage of raw materials, the demand was differentiated, and the inventory was extremely low [60]. - The market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The mine supply was tight, the demand showed some resilience, and the inventory decreased [62]. - The market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The nickel ore policy in Indonesia changed, the production cost increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory was at a relatively high level [63]. - The market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose slightly, and soybean oil futures fell. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy improved the demand expectation. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends [64]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell. The market expects the inventory to decrease, the production to decline, and the export to increase. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level [66]. - The market may consider buying on dips [66]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy and the China - Canada tariff policy have an impact on the market. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at a relatively high level [69]. - The market is recommended to wait and see for now [69]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell, and the domestic cotton production increased, but the inventory accumulation was lower than expected. The future supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient [71]. - The market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly, and the external market sugar price fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient with high imports [75]. - The market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. Apple - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The market is in the late stage of Spring Festival stocking, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality have declined [77]. - The market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short