2026 年 3 月 3 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜： 16 | | --- | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.55%报 112.740 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.530 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 106.080 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.464 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，3 月 2 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 190 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Global macro格局受四大重磅事件冲击，美以伊军事冲突成市场核心即时变量，需关注冲突烈度及对市场的影响，人民币汇率受央行政策和地缘冲突影响，短期或双向波动，长期升值趋势取决于国内经济和出口情况 [2][3] - 股指受两会和地缘政治局势影响，预计以短期情绪冲击为主，底部支撑强；国债存在上涨契机，但需关注市场环境；集运欧线受地缘冲突和船司挺价影响，预计震荡偏强 [6][7][9] - 碳酸锂短期预计在15 - 20万元/吨区间宽幅震荡，中长期价值支撑稳固；工业硅和多晶硅短期处于产能周期底部，需等待供需格局改善 [11][12][13] - 铝产业链受美伊冲突影响，铝价或震荡偏强，氧化铝震荡整理，铸造铝合金震荡偏强；铜价受库存和下游复工影响，上涨面临压力；锌价预计偏强震荡；镍不锈钢震荡偏强；锡价高位震荡；铅价震荡调整 [15][16][18] - 油料市场，二季度后大豆供应压力回归，菜粕或表现弱势；油脂市场受地缘冲突支撑，可寻找逢低看多机会 [26][27][28] - 燃料油期价有望强势冲高，沥青跟随成本上涨；铂金和钯金中长期牛市基础仍在，黄金和白银战略性看多 [30][32][34] - 纸浆和胶版纸期货可区间交易，纯苯或有低多机会；苯乙烯和LPG受地缘影响，成本支撑增强；甲醇受地缘冲突影响大；聚烯烃短期受情绪和成本驱动，PP基本面支撑强于PE [37][38][40] - 橡胶震荡回调，天胶中长期偏多，顺丁橡胶区间震荡；尿素受美伊战争影响，价格或上涨；玻璃纯碱基本面空间有限；丙烯受成本推动上涨 [50][51][54] - 螺纹和热卷受政策预期和高库存影响，短期内政策支撑盘面，但基本面偏弱；铁矿石供应压制价格，需求预期悲观；焦煤焦炭关注终端需求验证；硅铁和硅锰受消息面驱动上涨，但硅锰受高库存压制 [57][58][60] - 生猪现货持续下跌，可选择卖涨期权；棉花供需偏紧，建议回调布局多单；白糖基本面偏空，关注盘面能否站稳5300；鸡蛋短期窄幅震荡、稳中偏强；苹果关注节后消费和交割逻辑；红枣供需格局偏松，价格承压；原木可观望或低多 [65][66][76] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Focus on the Middle East situation, including the Iran - US - Israel conflict, the impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Chinese government's meeting on the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent one - sided appreciation expectations. Short - term exchange rate may show two - way fluctuations, and long - term appreciation depends on domestic economic recovery and export strength. Geopolitical conflicts may support the US dollar index [2][3] - **Stock Index**: Affected by the two sessions and geopolitical situation, short - term emotional shocks are expected, with strong bottom support [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is an opportunity for an increase, but the market environment needs to be monitored. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and avoid chasing high prices in the short term [6][7][8] - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Geopolitical conflicts and shipping companies' price - holding behavior strengthen short - term support, but weak cargo volume limits the upside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9][10] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 150,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton. Long - term value is supported by downstream demand, but risks such as price increases affecting terminal economy need to be noted [11][12] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Currently at the bottom of the production cycle, waiting for supply - demand pattern improvement. Photovoltaic has long - term development potential [12][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The US - Iran conflict may cause short - term price fluctuations in electrolytic aluminum. It is recommended to buy call options for aluminum and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for alumina. Cast aluminum alloy may follow the trend of aluminum [15][16][17] - **Copper**: Affected by high inventory and slow downstream resumption, price increase is restricted. It is advisable to use calendar spread strategies or buy out - of - the - money call options [18][20] - **Zinc**: Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and the turning point needs to be observed [22] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The trend is slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to US tariff disturbances and Indonesian supply [22][23] - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the impact of risk aversion on the market needs to be noted [23][24] - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and interval operations are recommended [25] Oils and Fats, and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The supply pressure of soybeans will return in the second quarter, and rapeseed meal may be weak [26] - **Oils and Fats**: Supported by geopolitical conflicts, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [26][27][28] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by supply shock, cost, and logistics, the futures price is expected to rise strongly [30] - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost of crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are dominant [31] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The risk - aversion sentiment is fermented due to the Middle East geopolitical risk. The long - term bull market foundation remains, but position control is needed [32][33] - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion allocation value is prominent. It is recommended to go long strategically and pay attention to economic data and policy expectations [34][35] Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp futures are bearish due to inventory accumulation and weak cost support. Offset paper futures are affected by multiple factors and are in a range - bound state [37][38] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The cost support is enhanced due to the Middle East conflict, and they are likely to follow the rise of crude oil [38][39] - **LPG**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the external market is strong and the internal market is weak. The focus is on the situation in the Middle East [39][40][41] - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has a significant impact, and the supply and price are likely to be affected [41][42] - **Plastics and PP**: The cost support is strengthened by the Middle East conflict. PE is supply - strong and demand - weak in the short term, while PP has supply reduction expectations and stronger fundamental support [44][45] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate, and synthetic rubber is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply, demand, and inventory [50][74] - **Urea**: Affected by the US - Iran war, international and domestic prices may rise [51][52] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The fundamental space is limited, and price fluctuations are restricted [53][54] - **Propylene**: Driven by cost, the price is expected to rise, but the downstream acceptance needs to be observed [54][55] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by policy expectations and high inventory, the short - term policy supports the market, but the fundamental weakness limits the upside [57] - **Iron Ore**: The supply suppresses the price, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to be bearish but not to short [58][59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Enter the terminal demand verification period, and the real data is important. The price may face downward pressure if the supply recovers more than expected and the macro - sentiment weakens [60][61] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Driven by market rumors, silicon iron has a better fundamental situation, while silicon manganese is restricted by high inventory [61][62][63] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The spot price continues to decline, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [65] - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to foreign trade policies and export progress [66][67][68] - **Sugar**: The fundamental situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to whether the price can stand above 5300 [68][69] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and be slightly stronger in the short term, and selling call options on the main contract is recommended [69][70] - **Apples**: Pay attention to post - festival consumption and the delivery logic. The price may decline if the demand is weak [76][77] - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure, likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [77][78] - **Logs**: The spot price has support, but the demand has not recovered significantly. Geopolitical factors may affect supply and cost. It is advisable to wait and see or go long at low prices [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. Pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival [7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillating pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [10][11]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the oscillating pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: There may be opportunities to go long in the low - range. Consider the low - cost and rigid cost conditions [18]. - **Crude Oil**: There is some progress in US - Iran negotiations, but geopolitical risks remain. It is advisable to hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply shortage in Singapore has eased, but there is still room for an upward movement due to the unresolved Iran risk. Hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: Be cautious in pre - holiday operations [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: Control positions before the holiday [30]. - **PVC**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [32]. - **Urea**: Expected to be oscillating and strong [33]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations during the Spring Festival [34]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, with a small inventory build - up expected. Be cautious, and pay attention to the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday [35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still pressure above, and it may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern. Be cautious and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: Trade based on the cost - end logic before the holiday. Be cautious and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory [37]. - **Bottle Chips**: Follow the cost - end trend. Be cautious before the holiday and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices and external market changes during the holiday [38]. - **Soda Ash**: Be cautious due to the off - season fundamentals. Hold light positions during the holiday [39]. - **Glass**: The market is generally loose. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday, paying attention to the return to fundamentals [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory situation has slightly improved. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday [41]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the impact on pre - holiday prices is temporarily dull. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Control risks [44]. - **Copper**: May experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: May be under pressure [47][48]. - **Zinc**: Will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. - **Tin**: There is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify. Control risks [54]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. - **Apples**: In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. - **Hogs**: Wait and see before the holiday due to the supply - demand imbalance [69][70]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. - **Logs**: The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5238 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the domestic supply also increased slightly. The downstream pre - holiday procurement ended, and the market entered a demand vacuum period. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.66% to 149,420 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption side has improved, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [44]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton, down 2.56%. The market sentiment declined, and the fundamentals weakened. The copper price may experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure [47][48]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 4.27% to 376,330 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, and there is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [54]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan/ton. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the cost is expected to rise. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 1.16% to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.22% to 8,082 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand continues to grow moderately, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. The supply may increase, and the export decreased. Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed followed the rise of US soybean oil futures but did not break through the resistance level. The Chinese import situation has changed, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [61][63]. Cotton - The domestic Zheng cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish. In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar rose and then fell; the overnight external raw sugar fell to a new low. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faces dual supply pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. Apples - The domestic apple futures oscillated. The current market is in a vacuum period. In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. Hogs - The main contract rose 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [69][70]. Eggs - The main contract rose 1.56% to 3,200 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. Corn and Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.83% to 2,320 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.51% to 2,572 yuan/ton. The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. Logs - The main 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The shipping volume has recovered, but the downstream demand is weakening. The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will still be some pressure, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held [8][9]. - For precious metals, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For ferroalloys, overall excess pressure continues, and after a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. - For crude oil, the rebound is expected to continue, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [19][20]. - For fuel oil, the upside still has room, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. - For polyolefins, cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. - For natural rubber, control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. - For PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up. Cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, it may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. - For short - fiber, trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost - side operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. - For soda ash, it should still be treated with caution [42]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. - For caustic soda, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. - For pulp, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. - For lithium carbonate, the downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. - For copper, the price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. - For aluminum, the price may be under pressure [49][50]. - For zinc, the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. - For tin, the price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. - For nickel, the first - grade nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. - For cotton, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. - For sugar, it is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. - For apples, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. - For live pigs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. - For eggs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be taken at high prices after the festival [74]. - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and wait patiently for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [75][77]. - For logs, the future demand expectation is still weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 40.35 billion yuan on that day. China's January CPI and PPI data showed certain trends. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held. Attention should be paid to risk control during the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment, and market volatility is expected to increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure still exists, and the inventory is higher than last year. The price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, the supply is in a certain situation, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand of downstream coke enterprises was cautious. The supply of coke was stable, but the demand was weak. They may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the overall excess pressure continues. After a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the repeated relationship between the US and Iran. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. Geopolitical risks increased, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [18][19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is weak, but the cost - side crude oil rebound drives the fuel oil price to rise. The risk in Iran is unresolved, and there is still room for the upside of fuel oil. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins showed certain trends. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the market will be greatly reduced, while some suppliers still actively ship. Cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, the supply capacity utilization rate was at a high level, the demand of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased but was still at a medium - high level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. After the previous pullback, it showed a strong - side fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the festival. Control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The price trend and inventory reduction speed depend on the demand recovery after the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weakening, and the cost is stable. The inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, the operating rate increased slightly, and the cost - side crude oil may have a driving force. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply side changed little, the demand side entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the cost - side support was limited. The processing fee was adjusted to the average level of previous years, and it may fluctuate in the short term. 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up, and cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall load continued to rise, the port inventory continued to build up, the downstream polyester was in seasonal maintenance, and the terminal loom load dropped to the lowest point. It may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply contracts, the terminal factory restocking decreases, and the loom load drops to the lowest point. The low inventory may provide bottom support. Trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The load decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate increases, and it is expected to follow the cost - side operation. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures closed flat. The fundamentals continued to be loose, the production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. It should still be treated with caution [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory of traders continued to build up, and the market was in a loose state. It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply was at a high level, the inventory was at a high level historically, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. The short - term rise was due to the entry of futures - cash merchants, and it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory continued to build up, the domestic supply increased slightly, the downstream demand was divided, and the market was inactive. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The domestic production resumption time in Jiangxi is still uncertain, the supply is in a tight - balance state, the demand of the energy - storage sector is prominent, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. The downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The capital market risk preference decreased, the terminal and processing enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the smelting production was at a high level, and the inventory was in the seasonal build - up stage. The price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures closed flat. The cost support of alumina is not strong, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, the aluminum production changes little, and the inventory build - up amplitude increases. The aluminum price may be under pressure [49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, the traditional seasonal inventory build - up is late, and the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose slightly. The supply is expected to be loose after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is steadily increasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, but the supply tightness is alleviated. The demand shows certain resilience. The price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, the cost is expected to rise, the policy risk in Indonesia increases, the downstream demand is weak, and the first - grade nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell slightly. The export demand expectation is optimistic, but the record - high yield of Brazilian soybeans brings competition. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the export volume decreased. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fluctuated. The planting area of rapeseed in Canada may be affected by profit concerns, and the domestic import policy and inventory situation are certain. Temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA report is bearish in the short term. Although the domestic harvest is good, the inventory build - up is less than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is resilient. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The global production increase expectation is strong, and the domestic market is under the pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The current market is in a vacuum period, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality decline. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The market supply exceeds demand, the consumption boost during the Spring Festival is limited, and the post - holiday supply may still face pressure. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level, the pre - holiday stocking is over. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. Gold is favored for its allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise has led to high speculative sentiment. The market volatility of precious metals is expected to increase significantly, and long positions should be liquidated for observation [11][12]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - The coke and coking coal futures may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [17]. - The ferro - alloy market has an overall surplus, but the cost has a certain bottom - support. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks remain. The capital is still bullish on crude oil, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. - The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding, so the fuel oil price has room to rise. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will shrink significantly, and pre - festival cautious operation is recommended [25][26]. - The synthetic rubber market may oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of logistics and infrastructure after the Lantern Festival and the inventory reduction rate of tire enterprises [27][28][29]. - The natural rubber market is in an oscillating trend. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, positions should be controlled [30][31]. - The PVC market may oscillate strongly. The key to price trends and inventory reduction lies in the post - Spring Festival demand recovery [32][33][34]. - The urea market may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and post - festival demand recovery [35]. - The PX market may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Cautious participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and fundamentals [36][37]. - The PTA market may oscillate in the short term. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in January and February. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38]. - The ethylene glycol market may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern in the short term. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39][40]. - The short - fiber market mainly trades based on the cost - end logic before the Spring Festival. Cautious observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [41]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end trend. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance devices [42][43]. - The soda ash market is in a slack season, and cautious treatment is still required [44]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [45][46][47]. - The caustic soda market has significant seasonal characteristics. Although the cost is expected to rise, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so cautious treatment is required [49][50]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival due to weak support [51]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control should be noted [52][53]. - The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [54][55]. - The aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. - The zinc price will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingot inventory accumulates [59][60]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - The tin price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies, and risk control should be noted [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. - For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. - The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. - For live pigs, pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. - For eggs, pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. - The corn and corn starch market: Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. - The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89]. Summary by Directory Pulp - The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,200 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand stagnated, and the market lacked trading basis. The price is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival [51]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main carbonate lithium contract rose 3.55% to 137,000 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption end is improving, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase [52][53]. Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,450 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. Due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals, the copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,625 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,490 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The zinc market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price will enter an adjustment period [59][60]. Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 4.18% to 385,140 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, the price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.91% to 134,820 yuan/ton. The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.33% to 2,729 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% to 8,114 yuan/ton. For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The market expects the inventory to decline in January. For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. Cotton - The previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. Sugar - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. Apple - The previous trading day, the domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract fell 0.69% to 11,565 yuan/ton. Pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose 0.03% to 2,909 yuan/500 kg. Pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.18% to 2,265 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.28% to 2,538 yuan/ton. Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 1.90%. The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Gold has allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue the weak oscillation pattern. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. - The coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall over - supply pressure, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens, and cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. - The urea price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. - The PTA market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. - The soda ash market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. - The glass market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. - The caustic soda market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. - The copper market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. - The aluminum market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. - The zinc market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. - The lead market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. - The tin market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. - The palm oil market may consider buying on dips [66]. - The rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets are recommended to wait and see for now [69]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. - The apple market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short term and strong in the medium and long term. It is recommended to go long in batches after a correction [77]. - The pig market is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the changes in supply and consumption around the Spring Festival [80]. - The egg market is recommended to wait and see, as the supply in February may remain at a relatively high level [83]. - The corn and corn starch markets are expected to follow the corn market. It is necessary to wait for the release of supply pressure [84]. - The log market shows a strong performance on the disk, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 64.5 billion yuan on the day. The service trade in 2025 showed steady growth [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends [8]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices fell. In 2025, domestic gold production increased, but consumption decreased. The US ISM service PMI index declined slightly [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and gold has allocation and hedging value. However, the short - term market fluctuations may increase, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak oscillation. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure increases. The prices may continue the weak oscillation pattern [13]. - Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern is weak [15]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The supply of coking coal may decline during the Spring Festival, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose slightly. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the short - term oversupply has weakened [19]. - After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose first and then fell. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC + may maintain the decision to suspend production increases in March [20]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is strong, and the trading volume of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil paper futures increased [23]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens [26]. - Cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The price of raw materials rose, the supply decreased slightly, the demand improved year - on - year, and the inventory increased [28]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The overseas supply is shrinking, the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [31]. - The market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The price was supported by exports and costs, but the high inventory and weak demand restricted the price increase [33]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell slightly. The supply increased, the demand was driven by exports and the market sentiment, and the industry profit increased [37]. - The price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, and the PX operating rate increased slightly [39]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased seasonally, and the processing fee rose to the average level of previous years [41]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The overall operating load increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream polyester entered the seasonal maintenance period [42]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply decreased, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was at a low level [44]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee rebounded, the supply was expected to decrease, and the export increased [45]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [46]. - The market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The number of production lines decreased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [48]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production was at a high level, the inventory was still at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak [49]. - The market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory continued to accumulate, the domestic supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [52]. - The market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [53]. - The market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell. The geopolitical events increased the risk - aversion demand, the mine supply was disturbed, and the terminal consumption entered the off - season [54]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell, and alumina futures rose. The alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production growth is limited, and the demand is weak [56]. - The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell. The supply tightened, the demand was weak, and the social inventory has not yet started to accumulate [58]. - The market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply was restricted by the shortage of raw materials, the demand was differentiated, and the inventory was extremely low [60]. - The market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The mine supply was tight, the demand showed some resilience, and the inventory decreased [62]. - The market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The nickel ore policy in Indonesia changed, the production cost increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory was at a relatively high level [63]. - The market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose slightly, and soybean oil futures fell. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy improved the demand expectation. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends [64]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell. The market expects the inventory to decrease, the production to decline, and the export to increase. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level [66]. - The market may consider buying on dips [66]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy and the China - Canada tariff policy have an impact on the market. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at a relatively high level [69]. - The market is recommended to wait and see for now [69]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell, and the domestic cotton production increased, but the inventory accumulation was lower than expected. The future supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient [71]. - The market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly, and the external market sugar price fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient with high imports [75]. - The market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. Apple - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The market is in the late stage of Spring Festival stocking, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality have declined [77]. - The market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised. The stock index is expected to gradually shift the volatility center upwards, and the previous long positions can be held. The precious metal market is expected to see significantly increased volatility, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trends and investment strategies are analyzed based on supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in Treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3025 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and it is expected that the Treasury bond futures will face pressure, so caution is required [5][6] Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the valuation is low and the market sentiment is warming up. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually shift upwards, and the previous long positions can be held [8] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose significantly. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold purchases support gold. However, the recent sharp rise has led to increased speculative sentiment, and it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly. It is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [10] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, the price is dominated by supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, the supply pressure increases, and the inventory is higher than last year. It is expected that the price will continue the weak oscillation, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips with proper position management [13] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly declined. The demand is at a low level, the supply has increased in 2025, and the port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips with proper position management [15] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The supply of coking coal may decline in the future, and the demand for coke is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels with proper position management [17][18] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon) - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The supply is in excess, the cost is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. It is possible to consider long - position opportunities in the low - level range [20] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. The relationship between the US and Iran is unstable, and the CFTC data shows a bullish sentiment. After the correction, the crude oil is expected to regain its strength, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying the main contract [21][22] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The supply in Singapore is tight, but the cost - end crude oil correction drives the fuel oil price down. After the correction, there is still upward space, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying the main contract [24] Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had some resource price increases, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the downstream industry weakens, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying [26] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. It is affected by the supply of raw materials and the improvement of demand. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation [28][29][30] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. The supply is shrinking, the cost is supported, and the demand may be weak. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [31] PVC - The previous trading day, PVC rose. The price is supported by exports and cost, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation [33] Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. It is driven by export demand and cost support. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - side trend [37] PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, the start - up is slightly increased, and the cost - end crude oil is adjusted. It is expected to be mainly in an oscillating adjustment, and cautious participation is recommended [39] PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The processing fee has risen, the supply is stable, and the demand is seasonally reduced. It is expected to oscillate, and cautious operation is recommended [41] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol rose. The overall load has increased, the port inventory is accumulating, and the cost is weakening. It is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern, and cautious operation is recommended [42] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The supply is shrinking, the inventory is at a low level, and it is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic. Cautious waiting and seeing is recommended [44] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The load is slightly reduced, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is mainly driven by the cost - end, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [45] Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash rose. The fundamentals are loose, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. The long - position sentiment is oscillating, but it should still be treated with caution [47] Glass - The previous trading day, glass rose. The fundamentals are in a loose pattern, and the inventory digestion needs time. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [48] Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The trading sentiment may fluctuate, but it should be treated with caution [50] Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp rose. The inventory is accumulating, the terminal demand is stagnant, and the support is weak. It is expected that the price fluctuation before the Spring Festival will be limited [51][52] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is required [53][54] Copper - The previous trading day, copper fell. The macro - environment is complex, the supply is affected by mines, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be adjusted before the Spring Festival [55] Aluminum - The previous trading day, aluminum and alumina fell. The alumina supply is loose, and the aluminum supply growth is limited. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [57][58] Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc fell. The supply is tightened, the demand is weak, and the inventory has not started to accumulate significantly. The price is expected to enter an adjustment period [60] Lead - The previous trading day, lead rose slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [62] Tin - The previous trading day, tin fell. The supply is tight, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is required [64] Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel fell. The cost may rise, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The overall situation of primary nickel is in excess, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [65] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal fell, and soybean oil rose. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted. The soybean meal demand is growing moderately, and the soybean oil demand is slightly improving. For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered, and for soybean oil, waiting and seeing is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][68] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose slightly. The inventory is expected to decline, the production is decreasing, and the export is increasing. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [69][71] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose. The US policy and China - Canada tariff adjustment have an impact. The inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for now [72][73] Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. The external market was under pressure. The USDA report is favorable, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the medium - to - long - term, but the short - term internal - external price difference is high. It is advisable to buy on dips after a full correction [74][76][77] Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly, and the external market fell. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic supply is under pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term [78][79] Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The current market is in the final stage of Spring Festival inventory preparation. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality have declined. It is advisable to wait for the correction and then go long in batches. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [81][82][83] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the Spring Festival. The first - quarter supply may face pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [84][85] Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level in February. It is recommended to wait and see for now [86] Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell slightly. The northern port inventory is low, the demand has slightly recovered, and the supply and demand are basically balanced. Corn starch may follow the corn market trend [87][88] Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is slightly shrinking, the inventory is decreasing, and the cost is slightly increasing. The short - term market is improving, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [89][90][91]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different futures varieties have different trends and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][10] - Overall, the market shows a complex situation with various factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations influencing different industries Summary by Catalog Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.33% at 112.09 yuan, and others remaining unchanged. The central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 78 billion yuan. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends, with the CSI 300 futures (IF) main contract down 0.20%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) main contract unchanged, the CSI 500 futures (IC) main contract up 0.64%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) main contract up 0.55% [8] - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations and economic resilience, along with increased market sentiment and inflow of incremental funds, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [10][11] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,148.38 with a 0.44% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 28,300 with a 4.02% increase [12] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to a significant increase in precious metals recently and rising speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported at certain ranges [15] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the prices of steel products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. Supply pressure is increasing, and inventory is rising. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [16][17] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight pullback. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported at certain levels [18] - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The supply - demand pattern has weakened. Technically, there are signs of stabilization. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [18][19] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures had obvious pullbacks. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - **Outlook**: The futures of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20][21][22] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract closed down 0.72% at 5,818 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract closed down 0.99% at 5,604 yuan/ton [23] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus pressure continues. Currently, the cost is at a low level, and the support at the low - level range is strengthening. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and closed near the 5 - day moving average. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24][25] - **Outlook**: The CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new sanctions on Iran and geopolitical risks have pushed up the price of crude oil. The price of crude oil is strong and has room to rise. Investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26][27] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and was supported by the 5 - day moving average. Singapore's land - based fuel oil inventory dropped to a three - month low due to reduced imports and increased exports. The spot price difference has improved [28][29] - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract of fuel oil [30] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had mixed price movements, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. The propane cost remains high, but demand is insufficient [31] - **Outlook**: This week, the polyolefin market will be in a tight supply - demand situation. The increase in crude oil prices and some production line overhauls may lead to a short - term price increase. The demand is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate upward. Investors can focus on long opportunities [31][32] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract closed down 1.63%. The price in Shandong was adjusted downward, and the basis was stable [33] - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly. Key factors to watch include the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and the implementation of January's plant overhauls [33][35] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract closed down 0.31%, and the 20 - rubber main contract closed up 0.04%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable, and the basis was stable [36] - **Outlook**: The market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation. Supply is decreasing, demand is expected to be stable to weak, and inventory is increasing [36][37] PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract closed down 0.55%. The spot price remained stable, and the basis widened slightly [38] - **Outlook**: Although it is currently the traditional off - season for PVC, the market may oscillate strongly due to policy expectations. In the medium term, capacity clearance and increased exports may improve the supply - demand situation. Investors need to be vigilant about demand uncertainties [38][40] Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract closed down 0.17%. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable, and the basis was stable [41] - **Outlook**: The short - term price of urea is expected to oscillate strongly, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [41][42] PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell 2.62%. The PXN spread was adjusted, and the short - flow profit was maintained [43] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PXN spread and short - flow profit are stable. The PX start - up rate is declining. The market sentiment and cost (crude oil) may provide support. The market may oscillate and adjust. Investors can participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the risk of external crude oil fluctuations [43] PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 3.17%. The PTA plant load remained stable, and the polyester load decreased [44] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PTA processing fee has returned to the average level of previous years, and the upward space is limited. The inventory remains low. The supply side has little change, and the demand side has a seasonal decline. The market may oscillate. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.6%. The overall start - up load decreased, and the port inventory increased [45] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply side is shrinking, and the market sentiment is boosted. However, the port inventory is increasing, and the downstream polyester is in the seasonal overhaul period. The price may have limited upward space. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [45] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract fell 1.97%. The short - fiber plant load increased, and the downstream terminal开工率 decreased [46] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level. The sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, and the inventory is at a low level, providing some support. The short - fiber may oscillate with the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46] Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract fell 2.52%. The bottle - chip processing fee increased, and the plant load decreased [47] - **Outlook**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has slightly decreased, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. The bottle - chip is expected to oscillate with the cost side. Investors can participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [47] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,194 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [48] - **Outlook**: The market is in a loose situation, and the price is stable for the time being. In the short term, there is a lack of substantial support, and the price will be adjusted stably. It is recommended to be cautious [48][49] Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,066 yuan/ton, down 0.93%. The production line remained unchanged, and the inventory increased [50] - **Outlook**: The market is in a loose situation. The price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [50] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2603 contract of caustic soda closed at 1,951 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The production is high, the demand is low, and the inventory is high [51] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant. Affected by the price fluctuation of alumina and the cost range of the futures, the trading sentiment may fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the futures may oscillate. However, considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [51][52] Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,342 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The inventory continued to increase, and the spot trading was light [53] - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the approaching end of downstream procurement and the continuous increase in port inventory. The futures may have a short - term technical rebound, and investors should treat it rationally [53][54] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 1.5% to 179,600 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing [55] - **Outlook**: The price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [55] Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,560 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose [56][57] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be adjusted at a high level. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and the demand is suppressed by high prices. The inventory is increasing [56][57][58] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,766 yuan/ton, up 1.62%. The alumina market is in surplus, and the aluminum demand is suppressed by high prices [59] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be adjusted at a high level. The supply - demand of the aluminum industry chain is under pressure in the short term [59][60] Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 25,025 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [61][62] - **Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate and adjust. It lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply [62][63] Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,000 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The supply and demand are both weak [64] - **Outlook**: The lead price is expected to oscillate within a range. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [64][65] Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.41% to 436,450 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, and the demand has some resilience [66][67] - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly. The supply is tight, and the demand has support from emerging fields. The inventory is decreasing [66][67] Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 1.96% to 143,420 yuan/ton. The cost is rising, and the demand is weak [68] - **Outlook**: The nickel price is under pressure. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [68] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract remained flat at 2,766 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 1.03% to 8,258 yuan/ton. The US dollar is weakening, and the soybean export competitiveness is increasing [69] - **Outlook**: The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and investors can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range. The demand for soybean oil has improved slightly, and investors can consider taking profits on rallies [69][70] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil continued to rise. The export data is good, and the production is declining. The domestic palm oil inventory is decreasing [71] - **Outlook**: Investors can consider long opportunities after a pullback [71][72] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed closed almost flat. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is increasing [73][74] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see for now [73][74][75] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated slightly. The USDA cotton supply - demand report is positive, and the domestic cotton production is increasing, but the inventory increase is lower than expected [76][77] - **Outlook**: The medium - term cotton price is expected to be strong, but the short - term domestic price is under pressure due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Investors can buy on pullbacks [76][77][78] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar oscillated, and the overseas raw sugar rebounded slightly. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the domestic sugar supply

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. Stock index volatility centers are expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held. Precious metal market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. For various industrial and agricultural products, different trends and investment strategies are analyzed based on their respective fundamentals [6][10][14] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. Due to the current low Treasury bond yields, the steady recovery of the Chinese economy, rising core inflation, and increased risk appetite, Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure, and caution is needed [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. With the increase in market sentiment and incremental funds, the stock index volatility center is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the gold - buying behavior of central banks are favorable for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise in precious metals and the significant increase in speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [12][13][14] Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last trading day, they showed weak oscillations. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the market is entering the demand off - season. Although the supply pressure is relieved, the inventory is slightly higher than last year. Prices may continue the weak oscillation, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16] - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, it slightly corrected. The demand for iron ore is low, the supply situation is complex, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, but there are signs of stabilizing. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, they slightly rebounded. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak. The futures have stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound space may be limited. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [21] - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron contracts fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost is fluctuating in a narrow range at a low level. The overall supply is still in excess, but the short - term supply may be reduced. After the price decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23][24] Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Speculators increased their net long positions in crude oil futures and options, the number of active oil and gas rigs increased, and the US imposed new sanctions on Iran. Crude oil is expected to continue rising, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [25][26][27] - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, it rose significantly. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the market expected short - to - medium - term supply to tighten. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [28] Chemicals (including Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda) - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to be in a supply - demand tight situation this week. Due to rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls, prices may continue to rise in the short term. The downstream demand is stable, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [29][30] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It was mainly supported by the rising price of butadiene and high device operating rates, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to factors such as butadiene price trends and downstream demand recovery [31][32][33] - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The overseas supply is shrinking, and the cost is supported, but the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34][35] - **PVC**: Last trading day, it rose. Although it is in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing [36][37][39] - **Urea**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The short - term price will maintain a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level [40][41] - **PX**: Last trading day, it rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate is declining, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate in the low - level range [42][43] - **PTA**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has little change, the demand is seasonally decreasing, but the cost and market sentiment boost the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory accumulation in January and February [44] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is shrinking due to increased domestic and overseas device overhauls, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream polyester is in seasonal maintenance. It is expected to have limited upward space in the short term, and investors should operate carefully [45][46] - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the inventory is at a low level, and it is mainly trading based on the cost - side logic. It is expected to oscillate with the raw material price, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [47] - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded, the supply is expected to shrink during the Spring Festival, the export is increasing, and it is mainly driven by the cost side. It is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors can participate cautiously on dips [48][49] - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the price is stable for the time being, and it lacks substantial support in the short term. Caution is advised [50][51] - **Glass**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the inventory is increasing, the market demand is weak, but the manufacturers' shipments are good due to pre - holiday stocking. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [52][53] - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, it rose. The winter seasonal characteristics are significant, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. Affected by the alumina price fluctuation, the pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate, but caution is still needed due to the unchanged fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches [54][55] Agricultural Products (including Pulp, Carbonate Lithium, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apples, Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Pulp**: Last trading day, it fell. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, the downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but rational treatment is needed [56][57] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, the inventory is decreasing, and there is strong support for the price. However, the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control is necessary [58][59] - **Copper**: Last trading day, it rose. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate supply is tight. However, the demand is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [60][61] - **Aluminum**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is inelastic. The high price suppresses the demand, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. It is expected to adjust at a high level [62][63][64] - **Zinc**: Last trading day, it rose. The domestic refined zinc production is increasing, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [65][66] - **Lead**: Last trading day, it fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production capacity of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [67][68] - **Tin**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is generally tight due to the slow resumption of production in Wa State and the crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and risk control is needed [69] - **Nickel**: Last trading day, it fell. The global geopolitical situation is tense, the Indonesian nickel quota is reduced, and the cost is rising. However, the stainless - steel consumption is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation [70] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, they rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the domestic soybean import is slowing down. The supply of soybean is relatively loose, the cost support is weakening, the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [71][72] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose, supported by the price of related oils and crude oil and favorable export data. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the price correction [73][74][75] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Chinese tariff on Canadian rapeseed will be reduced. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is increasing. Investors can consider closing the spread - widening positions between soybean and rapeseed products [76][77] - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell. The USDA report is favorable for the market, and the medium - term external cotton price is expected to be strong. The domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory increase is lower than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand has resilience. The medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be strong, but the domestic market is under pressure in the short term. Investors can buy on dips after the price correction [78][79][80] - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar futures oscillated. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is recommended to short on rallies [82][83][84] - **Apples**: The domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be strong, and investors can go long on dips [86][87][88] - **Pigs**: The main contract fell. The supply is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter, and the market is waiting for the marginal change in consumption during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see [90][91] - **Eggs**: The main contract rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January, but the supply - side improvement is emerging. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [92] - **Corn & Starch**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. The northern port inventory is low, the spot price is strong, and the domestic corn is basically in balance of production and demand. The demand for corn starch is slightly improving, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to follow the corn market [93][94] - **Logs**: The main contract rose slightly. The supply is shrinking at a high level, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is entering the pre - holiday end, and the cost is rising. The overall supply - demand is tending to be loose, but the cost support is strengthening [95][96][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. The stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. The precious metals market is expected to have significant fluctuations, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to be weakly volatile. The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term. The coking coal and coke futures may continue to be weak in the short term. The ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction. The fuel oil, polyolefin, and synthetic rubber may have long - position opportunities. The natural rubber is expected to have a wide - range shock. The PVC may be strongly volatile. The urea is expected to be in a strong - oscillating state. The PX may be in an oscillating adjustment. The PTA may be in an oscillating operation. The ethylene glycol may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - fiber may follow the raw material price to oscillate. The bottle - chip may follow the cost side to oscillate. The soda ash is suitable for range operation in the short term. The glass is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. The caustic soda price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term. The pulp market is under pressure due to inventory and weak demand. The lithium carbonate price may have greater short - term fluctuations. The copper price is at a high level and may be adjusted. The aluminum price may be adjusted at a high level. The zinc price may face pressure and correct. The lead price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The tin price may be strongly volatile. The nickel is in an over - supply pattern. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises. The palm oil may consider long - position opportunities after the correction. The rapeseed meal and oil may consider reducing and holding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The cotton price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term. The apple price is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term. The live pig market may face supply pressure in the first quarter, and it is advisable to wait and see. The egg market can consider a positive spread strategy. The corn and starch may follow the corn market, and the supply pressure of corn needs to be further released. The log price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [5][6][7][10][12][14][15][19][21][24][26][29][30][35][37][39][40][42][43][45][46][48][49][51][52][54][56][58][60][63][64][66][68][71][73][74][77][78][81][84][85][87][89]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 122.7 billion yuan. The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting. The Treasury bond futures are under pressure due to factors such as the relatively low yield, the stable economic recovery, and the rising risk appetite [5][6]. Housing and Real Estate - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that the real estate market is city - based, and cities should use regulatory autonomy. The government will continue to implement policies according to cities, support reasonable financing of real estate enterprises and housing demand, and promote the stable operation of the real estate market [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank in Guangdong adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the fluctuation center of the stock index will gradually move up [7]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the speculative sentiment has heated up significantly, and it is advisable to liquidate long positions and wait and see [9][10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. In the medium term, the prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is decreasing year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year. The prices may continue to be weakly volatile, and the hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The demand for iron ore has decreased, the supply is under pressure, and the port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to correct in the short term [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises has improved. The price increase of coke has been resisted by steel mills. The futures may continue to be weak in the short term [15]. Ferroalloy - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures had different performances. The supply of manganese ore has changed, the cost of ferroalloy has a narrow - range fluctuation, and the production and demand are both weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues, and long positions in the low - level range can be considered after the price decline [17][18][19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated higher. Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures, the number of oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US has adjusted its policy on Venezuelan energy. The crude oil is expected to continue to rebound after the correction [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The export volume of fuel oil from Singapore has increased, but the high inventory restricts the increase. The price difference in the spot market has improved, and long - position opportunities can be considered [23][24]. Polyolefin - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had mixed quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao declined. The northern cold weather and the southern labor shortage have affected the production, but the demand from high - end manufacturing for modified PP is stable. The profit of some enterprises has recovered, and long - position opportunities can be considered [25][26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The market rise was supported by the increase in butadiene price and high device operation rate, but the downstream demand was weak. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and long - position opportunities can be considered [27][28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, the demand from the tire industry has improved, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to have a wide - range shock [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. It is in the traditional off - season, but the policy expectation may make the market strongly volatile. The production capacity utilization rate has decreased, the demand from downstream enterprises has declined slightly, the cost has changed, and the inventory has increased. It may be strongly volatile [32][33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The export demand and cost support make the price strongly oscillating. The daily production is high, the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate has increased, and the cost side has support. It may be in an oscillating adjustment [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from the polyester industry has decreased, and the processing fee is at an average level. It may be in an oscillating operation [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply may increase, the port inventory is under pressure, and the expected arrival at the port has increased significantly. It may face pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [41][42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the sales have improved, and the terminal factory is digesting raw material inventory. It may follow the raw material price to oscillate [43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The load has decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the export growth rate has increased, and it may follow the cost side to oscillate [44][45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the downstream demand is average. It is suitable for range operation in the short term [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The supply is abundant, the inventory has decreased slightly, but the trader's inventory has increased. The market sentiment is stable, and it is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The supply is sufficient, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures declined slightly. The import pulp market sentiment is weak, the price trend is divided, the inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, and the demand from paper mills is weak [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market trading sentiment has cooled down. The supply is abundant, the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price may have greater short - term fluctuations [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures were flat. The macro - environment is complex, the supply is tight, but the high price has suppressed the demand, and the inventory has increased. The price is at a high level and may be adjusted [53][54][55]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures rose. The bauxite supply is abundant, the alumina market is oversupplied, the electrolytic aluminum production increase is limited, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high price. The price may be adjusted at a high level [56][57]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures rose. The raw material supply is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, the consumption is seasonally weak, and the price may face pressure and correct [58][59]. Lead - On the previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is low. The price may maintain a range - bound oscillation [60][61]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures rose. The supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory has decreased. The price may be strongly volatile [62][63]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The macro - environment is complex, the Indonesian nickel policy has changed, the supply cost may increase, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is in an over - supply pattern [64]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures declined slightly, and soybean oil futures rose. The South American soybean harvest is slow, the dollar has weakened, the domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, and the demand for soybean meal and oil has different performances. The soybean meal may have long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range, and the soybean oil may consider liquidating long positions when the price rises [65][66]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price has risen to a seven - week high. The export has increased, the production has decreased, the domestic import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. Long - position opportunities can be considered after the correction [67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports have changed, and the inventory has increased. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil can be considered to be reduced and held [69][70][71]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures declined. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable, the domestic cotton production is high but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the future planting area may be reduced. The demand is resilient. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [72][73][74]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures declined. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and there is pressure from domestic and imported sugar. The price may be bearish in the medium - to - long term [76][77][78]. Apple - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the medium - to - long term, and long positions can be considered after the correction [80][81][82]. Live Pig - On the previous trading day, live - pig futures declined. The northern and southern pig prices have declined, the supply is abundant, and the consumption change during the Spring Festival needs to be followed. The first - quarter supply may face pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see [83][84]. Egg - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The egg production cost has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply may be high in January. A positive spread strategy can be considered [85]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The northern port inventory is low, the supply pressure needs to be released, the demand for corn starch has improved slightly, and it may follow the corn market [86][87]. Log - On the previous trading day, log futures rose. The supply is abundant, the inventory has different changes, the demand from downstream processing plants has increased. The price is expected to be stable, and the futures may oscillate at the bottom [88][89].