长江证券研报指出，中国动力船用动力系统龙头格局稳固，后市场、燃机打开新空间。考虑到船舶行业 景气有望持续上行，公司作为国内船舶动力总装平台，受益于造船业景气周期，盈利能力释放的同时， 燃气轮机、深海科技等有望打开公司长期成长空间。预计公司2025-2027年分别实现归母净利润17.94亿 元、29.88亿元、39.08亿元，对应PE分别为29、17、13X，给予"买入"评级。 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 31 年 月 日 展望 2026 年：总体上判断，2026 年破晓，军工有望逐步进入复苏期，但产业转 入积极态势仍然需要时间，以时间换空间或是好的策略。 景气度呈现向上的态势：2026 年启动新的 5 年规划，在 2027 年实现建军百年奋 斗目标背景下，总体上军费呈现上涨态势，军工装备放量可期。"十四五"积压的 订单叠加"十五五"新增加的军费，我们预判 2026~2028 年军工呈现显著的向上 态势。但当前军工产业仍处在调整阶段，进入积极的态势仍然需要时间。 国防军工 关注方向上：主战装备重点关注导弹、无人装备、新批产装备，以及军贸方向；新 质战斗力领域重点关注：军工 AI、无人装备、航天卫星、深海科技，军民融合关 注核聚变、大飞机等。 2026 年度策略：破晓，军工逐步进入复苏期 1、 主战装备 回顾 2025 年："十四五"收官之年，市场原预期完成"十四五"积压订单从而基 本面反转，然而全年来看军工订单受行业影响仍不及预期。但在 2025 年印巴冲突 等地缘事件影响下，军贸打开行业长期成长空间。总体来说，2025 年延续了"十 四五" ...

2025年(截止12月10日)全年申万机械设备指数上涨36.11%，相较于其他行业涨幅排名靠前，跑赢上证指 数19.74个百分点，跑赢深证成指8.78个百分点。2025年前三季度机械板块营收和归母净利润增速提升。 从收入端来看，2025年前三季度机械行业营业收入15135.34亿元，同比增长7.35%，同比增速相较于 2024年前三季度有所提升。从利润端来看，归母净利润1080.76亿元，同比增长16.80%，同比增速相较 于2024年前三季度明显提升。 东兴证券发布研报称，2025年机械板块涨幅居前，从利润端来看同比增速相较于2024年前三季度明显提 升。工程机械及摩托车作为我国制造业出海竞争力较强的板块，未来有望持续强化品牌效应，打造"制 造出海"向"品牌出海"升级的典范。另建议关注人形机器人、智能物流、非动力核技术应用、低空经 济、深海科技、冰雪经济和高端计量检测细分机会。锂电、光伏、半导体设备行业有望从粗放式增长转 向高质量发展。 东兴证券主要观点如下： 2025年机械板块涨幅居前，营收利润同比增速提升 反内卷推动光伏、锂电、半导体设备进入高质量发展新周期 2025年中央财经委会议明确将"反内卷"作为 ...

东方证券指出，布局明年，"十五五"规划落地后，关注无人与反无人装备、深海科技、作战信息化等为 代表的新质生产力；中长期来看，关注后续国产动力系统突破带来的商业航空供给释放，以及中式高端 装备出海提速下军贸市场的拓展，民用及军贸有望成为板块的第二增长极。当前位置及时点继续看好军 工。 消息面上，近期日本首相高市早苗的相关言论引起了轩然大波并遭到了一片反对之声。中泰证券发布研 报称，地缘局势不确定性加剧，军工板块关注度有望提升。 智通财经APP获悉，军工股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中船防务(00317)涨5.86%，报14.81港元；中航科工 (02357)涨1.78%，报4港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic direction for China's economic and social development, emphasizing long-term stability and growth in the capital market, with a focus on digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology [1][25]. Macro Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a crucial phase in achieving socialist modernization by 2035, with a target of doubling GDP per capita compared to 2020 levels, necessitating an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% from 2026 to 2035 [2][3]. Key Changes in Development Environment - Significant changes from the "14th Five-Year Plan" include advancements in technological innovation, adjustments in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a greater emphasis on domestic demand and a more confident approach to opening up [3][4]. Industrial and Technological Focus - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, enhancing efficiency and security in supply chains, and emphasizes the importance of traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors such as renewable energy and quantum technology [4][5][20]. Consumer and Demand-Side Policies - The plan aims to boost consumer spending through supply-side and demand-side measures, including improving the quality of consumer goods and services, enhancing employment and income distribution, and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [7][9][10]. Open Economy Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes proactive and autonomous opening up, with a focus on expanding market access, promoting balanced trade development, and enhancing financial openness to improve China's position in the global financial system [11][12][13]. Green Transition and Carbon Goals - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption, implementing dual control of carbon emissions, and promoting green consumption [15][16][20]. Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, with an emphasis on improving the tax system and increasing public service spending to support consumption [17][18][22]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [25][26]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology, with specific focus areas such as AI, 6G, and innovative healthcare solutions [26].

Macro Perspective - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a crucial transitional phase towards achieving the 2035 modernization goals, with a target GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% annually from 2026 to 2035 to double the economic output compared to 2020 levels [3][4] - The new environment presents several changes, including breakthroughs in technological innovation, a downward adjustment in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical conflicts, necessitating a focus on supply-side optimization and domestic demand [4][5] Technological Innovation and Industrial Development - The construction of a modern industrial system is emphasized as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and security within the industrial chain [5][6] - The plan highlights the importance of traditional industries while also fostering emerging sectors such as new energy, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing, with specific attention to future industries like quantum technology and hydrogen energy [6][7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The plan aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, focusing on both supply-side and demand-side measures to stimulate consumption [9][10] - Key policies include improving the consumption system, enhancing infrastructure for consumer services, and expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services [9][10] Open Economy and International Cooperation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a more proactive and autonomous approach to opening up the economy, with a focus on expanding market access and promoting balanced trade development [12][13] - Financial openness is highlighted as a critical area, with a goal to enhance the international status of the Chinese currency and improve the capital account [13][14] Green Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption and implementing a dual control system for carbon emissions [16][17] - The expansion of the national carbon market and promotion of green consumption are also key components of the strategy [17][18] Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, including optimizing the tax structure and increasing public service spending [18][19] - The plan aims to improve the social security system and reduce reliance on general budget subsidies, thereby enhancing fiscal sustainability [19][20] Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [37] - Key sectors to watch include digital technology, high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, with a focus on innovation and quality upgrades [38]

Key Points - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" focusing on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [10][11][12] - China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 101.50 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [15][16] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged in October, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% [18][21] - In September, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a continued adjustment in the real estate market [21][22] Market Overview - Major domestic stock indices performed well, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 8.05% [26][27] - The economic operation showed multi-dimensional characteristics, with GDP growth in the third quarter rebounding to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][15] - The real estate market is in an adjustment phase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices [2][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, and robotics, which are expected to benefit from current policies promoting new productive forces [3][34] - Non-bank financial institutions, particularly brokerages, may benefit from a slow bull market [3][34] - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to see sustained demand as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions [3][34] - The storage sector is anticipated to have broad prospects driven by policy support [3][34] - The machinery sector, particularly engineering machinery and heavy trucks, is expected to benefit from increased manufacturing activity following overseas interest rate cuts [3][35] - Domestic consumption is expected to be boosted, releasing residents' consumption capacity [3][36]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current market rally is characterized by a disconnect between index performance and underlying earnings recovery, suggesting that the rally is more driven by liquidity and thematic trading rather than fundamental improvements [1][34]. - The report introduces the securitization rate (the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP) as a useful tool for identifying valuation peaks in index bull markets, indicating that a higher securitization rate typically reflects liquidity-driven market conditions [2][23]. - Historical data shows that during significant index bull markets, the securitization rate has risen above 1, with current levels at 0.83 suggesting potential for further valuation upside [2][26]. Group 2 - The report anticipates that the total market capitalization of the two exchanges will continue to expand, driven by expected recovery in producer price index (PPI) and supportive liquidity and policy expectations [3][35]. - The analysis indicates that the current market environment aligns with characteristics of an index bull market, despite concerns about the inability to surpass previous valuation peaks [33][34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the securitization rate as it approaches 1, which could signal a critical valuation threshold for the market [3][35]. Group 3 - The investment strategy proposed includes a "4+1" sector allocation approach, focusing on technology, cyclical sectors benefiting from PPI recovery, and structural opportunities in overseas markets [4][39]. - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include technology and military industries, cyclical commodities, and companies with potential for valuation recovery [4][39]. - The report suggests maintaining a stable core allocation in dividend-paying stocks and gold, indicating a balanced approach to investment amidst market fluctuations [4][39].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a "dual-driven" structure in the market, highlighting the importance of maintaining a "bull market mindset" while adopting a cautious trading approach in a "slowly rising oscillating market" [1][11] - The report identifies two main driving forces: the growth categories supported by global technology collaboration and the cyclical recovery driven by "anti-involution" policies [1][11] - The report notes that the current market is experiencing a healthy influx of incremental capital, with margin financing balances reaching a new high since 2016, indicating positive market sentiment [1][14][15] Group 2 - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, driven by a "fan effect" that attracts institutional capital, with significant increases in holdings in telecommunications and information technology sectors [2][20][22] - The semiconductor cycle is expected to enter an upward phase, supported by AI demand and recovery in related sectors, with a focus on the potential for structural gains in the industry [2][28][29] - The report suggests that the TMT sector will likely experience "cohesive upward movement" rather than a zero-sum game, with strong fundamentals supporting continued investment [2][24][25] Group 3 - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policies that are expected to lead to a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with signs of marginal improvement in PPI despite current low levels [3][36][39] - It highlights the structural divergence between the CRB index and PPI, indicating a potential for price recovery driven by supply-side adjustments and demand-side policy support [3][40][41] - The report anticipates that the recovery in PPI will extend to cyclical consumer assets, providing support for the overall market index [3][44][45] Group 4 - The report provides specific investment recommendations, suggesting a diversified approach that includes technology, military, cyclical recovery, and stable dividend stocks [4][59] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as AI, robotics, and semiconductors, while also considering cyclical sectors that may benefit from PPI recovery [4][59] - The report encourages investors to look for structural opportunities in international trade and stable dividend-paying assets as part of a balanced investment strategy [4][59]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, suggesting a "slowly rising oscillating market" pattern, with short-term risks of adjustment as the index approaches key levels [2][11][19] - There are two main doubts regarding the market breakthrough: "the fundamentals have not yet bottomed" and "the fiscal support for anti-involution is weak" [12][30] - The central Huijin is identified as a core driving force behind the current market breakthrough, providing stability and support through sustained long-term capital inflows [13][19] Group 2 - The trading heat is currently high, with a significant number of industries showing increased trading activity, particularly in anti-involution sectors [20][21] - The report highlights that the trading volume in several anti-involution industries has surpassed warning thresholds, indicating heightened market activity [23][28] - The report notes that while the overall trading heat is elevated, it does not necessarily indicate the end of the market rally, as seen in previous years [21][30] Group 3 - The anti-involution market phase is characterized by skepticism regarding the strength of fiscal support, despite recent policy changes that may extend the definition of anti-involution [30][31] - Future prospects for the anti-involution market depend on the strength of demand-side policies; insufficient support may lead to a temporary rebound rather than a sustained reversal [34][35] - The report outlines three advantages driving the anti-involution trend: high-level policy attention, clean chip distribution in industries, and increased market risk appetite [31][32] Group 4 - The report recommends a diversified investment strategy focusing on technology, military, finance, and stable dividend stocks, alongside gold [35][36] - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include AI, robotics, semiconductors, and consumer goods, with an emphasis on areas showing marginal improvement in profit growth [36][37] - The report suggests that the current market environment requires a "bull market mindset" while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid blind chasing of highs [35][36]