2025 年内，SpaceX 未执行任何"猎鹰重型火箭"发射任务，意味着这 167 次轨道发射全部由"猎鹰 9 号"火箭完成。猎鹰重型火箭自 2024 年 10 月以来再未起 飞，但是更重的星舰飞了 5 次（IT之家注：IFT-7 至 IFT-11 试飞）。 在这 167 次猎鹰 9 号任务中，其中有两次因为高质量载荷放弃回收，还有一次在着陆后侧翻并起火（3 月 3 日），导致最终回收失败。 在这 167 次发射任务中，星链任务占据了 123 次，合计将 3000 多颗卫星送入轨道，目前星链星座在轨运行的卫星数量已超过 9300 颗。 感谢IT之家网友 、 、 、 、 、 的线索投递！ 12 月 31 日消息，SpaceX 在 2025 年再次打破自身保持的年度火箭发射纪录，全年共完成 167 次轨道发射任务，约占美国 2025 年轨道发射总数的 85%。这 已经是 SpaceX 连续第六年刷新纪录。 公开数据显示，SpaceX 的年度轨道发射次数近年来持续攀升，从 2020 年的 25 次、2021 年的 31 次、2022 年的 61 次、2023 年的 96 次、2024 年的 134 次， 增长至 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 持续重视 AI 应用，关注商业航天 计算机周观察 20251214 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 工信部提出"十五五"期间将重点深化拓展制造业数字化转型行动和"人工智 能+制造"，加快卫星互联网建设发展。OpenAI 发布 GPT-5.2，海外 AI 大模 型迭代持续加速。国内外科技巨头纷纷在太空算力领域开展项目部署，SpaceX 计划 26 年中上市，估值或达到 1.5 万亿美元；我国高度重视商业航天发展，朱 雀三号重复使用火箭成功首飞，多家可复用箭型计划在 2025-2026 年密集首飞。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 286 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4161.9 | 4.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3687.1 | 3.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.7 13.5 8.3 相对表现 -1.3 -4.2 -5.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Ju ...

彭博社此前报道显示，SpaceX 计划通过此次 IPO 融资超过 300 亿美元，若交易达成，有望成为全球范 围内规模最大的上市交易之一。相关计划还提到，公司目标整体估值约为 1.5 万亿美元，这一水平接近 沙特阿美在 2019 年创下的历史性上市市值纪录。 作为 IPO 的前期筹备环节，SpaceX 会定期开展股份要约收购，通常每年两次，为员工及现有股东提供 出售或增持股份的渠道。此次公司设定新的公允市场价值，被业内普遍视为为未来上市进程奠定重要基 础。 来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】12月13日消息，据彭博社报道，马斯克旗下的 SpaceX 公司敲定内部股票交 易，将最新内部估值上调至约 8000 亿美元，其内部股价定为 421 美元，这一价格几乎是今年 7 月融资 时 212 美元定价的两倍，彼时公司估值约为 4000 亿美元。据悉，SpaceX 正筹备最早于 2026 年进行的 潜在首次公开募股（IPO），相关动态引发行业广泛关注。 对于此次潜在 IPO，SpaceX 方面明确表示，首次公开募股的时间、最终估值以及是否最终推进上市等 关键信息仍存在不确定性。不过，公司此前曾透露，若 IPO 顺利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry is approaching a critical point for closing the loop, with expectations for rapid growth. The core component of this industry is satellites, and the launch speed is primarily determined by launch costs. The key bottleneck lies in reusable rocket technology. A breakthrough in this technology will significantly accelerate the launch speed of low-orbit satellites in China. Coupled with the ongoing development of the AI industry, the construction of space computing power is becoming a trend, leading to a substantial opening of the commercial aerospace application market [1][9]. - The Chinese government has placed significant emphasis on the development of commercial aerospace, with supportive policies emerging frequently. The industry has been included in government work reports for two consecutive years, highlighting its importance as a new growth engine [12][14]. - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant milestone in China's reusable rocket technology, which is expected to progress from stage 1 to stage 10. This development is crucial for the industry to reach a volume production critical point [16][15]. Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace Industry Development - The commercial aerospace industry is nearing a critical point for closing the loop, with expectations for rapid growth driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and the increasing demand for space computing power [1][9]. - The Chinese government has prioritized commercial aerospace in its development plans, with multiple supportive policies and initiatives aimed at fostering industry growth [12][13]. Reusable Rocket Technology - The Zhuque-3 rocket's successful launch demonstrates the potential for reusable rocket technology in China, with future goals to reduce launch costs to approximately 20,000 RMB per kilogram [16][15]. - The report draws parallels with SpaceX's Falcon 9, which has achieved significant cost reductions through reusable technology, suggesting that similar advancements in China could lead to a sustained decrease in launch costs [17][18]. Space Computing Power - The report highlights the increasing trend of deploying computing power in space, with companies like Starcloud leading initiatives to establish space-based data centers. This shift is expected to alleviate the growing demands on terrestrial data centers [19][20]. - The anticipated advancements in rocket technology and the establishment of space computing infrastructure are expected to create a robust ecosystem for commercial aerospace applications [30][31].

Q&A 朱雀 3 的发射结果如何评价？ 朱雀 3 遥一火箭在酒泉东风商业航天创新试验区成功发射，二级火箭进入预定 轨道，实现了首飞的预轨成功。然而，一子级回收未能实现软着陆，着陆于回 收场坪边缘，距离目标落点仅几十米。尽管如此，从任务定义来看，只要实现 入轨即为首飞成功。因此，朱雀 3 的发射任务整体上是成功的，并且证明了其 技术路线和全过程方案的有效性。 如何看待国内商业航天与国际公司的对比？ 国内商业航天领域一直被视为追赶者，但可以参考 SpaceX 的发展历程。 SpaceX 成立于 2002 年，其第一款火箭猎鹰一号在经历三次失败后，于 2008 年第四次发射才成功。猎鹰 9 号火箭在 2010 年首飞后，也经历了多次 回收失败，直到 2015 年才首次实现回收成功。这表明可回收火箭技术需要多 朱雀三首飞入轨成功，看好商业航天新起点 20251203 摘要 朱雀三号首飞成功验证了其技术路线和全过程方案的有效性，标志着国 内商业航天在可回收火箭技术上取得重要进展，尽管与 SpaceX 等国际 公司相比仍有差距，但国内头部公司的技术方案已得到有效验证。 可回收火箭技术是未来降低发射成本的关键。SpaceX ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Commercial Space Industry Industry Overview - The commercial space industry in China is experiencing rapid development, particularly in satellite internet and constellation networking, with significant advancements in launch capabilities and infrastructure [3][4][9] - Major commercial rocket companies like iSpace and Blue Arrow are progressing quickly, with liquid large-thrust rockets being viewed as the optimal solution for reducing transportation costs [1][4] Key Developments - China aims to complete manned lunar missions by 2030 and is actively exploring asteroid mining, which could lead to breakthroughs in near-Earth tourism and resource development [1][6] - The development of sea launch technology is maturing, with successful satellite internet test launches conducted off the coast of Guangdong [7] - The integration of communication, navigation, and remote sensing functions into single satellites is seen as a future direction, enhancing service capabilities and reducing costs [1][13][17] Cost and Capacity Analysis - Domestic commercial rockets have a higher cost compared to SpaceX, with the real cost of domestic rockets around 50,000 RMB per kilogram, while SpaceX's Falcon 9 has reduced its cost to below $1,000 per kilogram [18] - The current capacity of domestic launch sites is limited, with a need to increase the number of launch sites and rocket production capabilities to meet demand [19][20] Technological Challenges - The main challenges in rocket technology development include reducing costs and improving reusability, with significant hurdles in engine design and attitude control technology [11][26] - The rocket manufacturing industry is concentrated in the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology and the China Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technology, with engine costs accounting for nearly half of the total manufacturing costs [2][26] Future Trends - The trend towards integrated communication, navigation, and remote sensing is expected to dominate future developments, with companies focusing on achieving this integration to enhance service capabilities [17][18] - The commercial satellite sector is seeing interest from companies like Starlink and others, with a focus on expanding overseas markets for satellite data [12] Investment Opportunities - Investment should focus on companies that can successfully implement integrated technology and demonstrate core competitiveness, as they are likely to play significant roles in the future market [17] - The potential for breakthroughs in asteroid mining and lunar missions presents significant investment opportunities in the commercial space sector [6] Conclusion - The commercial space industry in China is poised for significant growth, driven by advancements in technology, infrastructure, and ambitious national goals. However, challenges remain in cost management, capacity expansion, and technological development that need to be addressed to fully realize this potential [1][20][29]