10月27日，A股市场震荡上行，沪指兵临4000点，收涨1.18%，再创10年新高！本轮沪指走强起源于10月23日，宏观政策释放利好信 号。据财通证券统计，十五五规划出台后1个月整体向上，可能政策落地后市场方向更明确、方便启动行情。 （来源于财通证券20251027《财通策略 · 十五五后市场有哪些机会》） 此外，短期外部风险有所缓释，提振市场风险偏好。近期中美经贸磋商在马来西亚举行，双方围绕美对华海事物流和造船业301 措 施、延长对等关税暂停期等双方共同关心的重要经贸问题，进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各自关切的安排达 成基本共识。 【只赚指数不赚账户？如何摆脱困境？】 虽然指数又十年新高，但从个股来看，今日有近70%的个股跑输上证指数。不少投资者面对账户涨幅陷入沉思，为何"只赚指数不赚 账户"呢？ 一是在全面注册制下的背景下，市场不再 "普涨普跌"，而是向优质标的集中，结构性行情成为常态。二是本轮行情呈现流动性行情 特征，在流动性行情中，资金切换加速，热点轮动迅速。近期行业轮动速度和分歧度再度抬升！ 数据：行业收益差异通过计算中信一级行业月度收益率截面上的标准差再取滚动3个月平均得到。行 ...

Market Overview - Investors face a dilemma of holding stocks or cash during the upcoming National Day holiday, as A-shares will be closed while overseas markets remain open [1] - Historical data indicates a "post-holiday effect" in the A-share market, with a higher probability of a "post-holiday opening red" [1][2] - Over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index has generally performed better after holidays compared to before, with post-holiday gains often being more sustained during significant market rallies [1] A-share Performance Data - The table shows the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index before and after the National Day holiday from 2015 to 2024, highlighting the percentage changes [2] - The probability of the index rising post-holiday is 70% for the first trading day and 60% for the first five trading days [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market exhibits a "mid-holiday effect," with a tendency to rise during the National Day holiday, although the first trading day after the holiday may be weaker [5] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher probability of rising post-holiday, especially when the market is in an upward trend [5][6] Sector Performance Expectations - In the A-share market, sectors such as computer, beauty care, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, and automotive are expected to show strong performance in the five trading days following the holiday [8] - For the Hong Kong market, all sectors except comprehensive finance have an upward probability of over 60%, with consumer, high-beta, and growth sectors performing relatively well during the holiday [8][9] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on "hard technology" sectors, including technology, chips, computing power, robotics, and artificial intelligence, as they are expected to lead market trends [11][13] - The "anti-involution" theme is highlighted, particularly in the battery and non-ferrous metals sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from policy catalysts and demand [13] - The report also emphasizes the potential of innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in the Hong Kong market, due to favorable liquidity conditions and low valuations [14] Broader Market Trends - The report indicates that broad-based ETFs are likely to capture market trends effectively, with financial sectors such as brokerage firms expected to lead the charge [11] - The consumer sector is also highlighted as a key area of interest, especially during the holiday season, with significant inflows into consumer-focused ETFs [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the STAR Market 50 Index and its ETF, indicating a bullish trend in the technology sector, particularly in semiconductor and AI-related companies [1][5][6] - The STAR Market 50 Index ETF (588870) has seen a significant increase of 8.95% over the past week, with a current price of 1.42 yuan and a trading volume of 1.01 billion yuan [1][3] - The ETF's recent growth in scale reached 3.7991 million yuan, ranking it second among comparable funds, while its share count increased by 12 million, placing it first in the same category [3][4] Group 2 - Recent foreign institutional interest in Chinese chip companies suggests a growing confidence in China's "hard technology" sector, with many foreign institutions indicating that the semiconductor and AI fields present rich investment opportunities [4][5] - The report mentions the successful development of AI-focused PPU chips by Alibaba's T-head, which reportedly surpass Nvidia's A800 in key performance metrics, indicating advancements in domestic chip technology [4] - Analysts from Changjiang Securities and Zhongtai Securities emphasize the accelerating demand for computing power driven by the global AI wave, suggesting that domestic computing infrastructure and AI chip technology will see significant growth opportunities [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market enters a major bull market, with a 10-year cycle law evident in its operation, and the current bull market in the 2024 - 2025 period is a characteristic of the K-wave depression phase featuring science and technology innovation and AI [12]. - Against the backdrop of anti-involution, consumption will become the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter, and the stock market's upward movement creates a wealth effect to boost residents' consumption ability and build a super-large Chinese market [3][15]. - Residents' savings are migrating to the stock market, and international funds will flow into Chinese assets due to the Fed's expected September interest rate cut [21][26]. - China's full AI transformation will make science and technology innovation and AI the continuous dominant styles in the stock market [31]. - The bond market serves as ammunition for the stock market's rise, with bond funds facing large-scale redemptions [36]. - Anti-involution boosts consumer goods and downstream manufacturing products, while the recovery strength of commodities after the Fed's interest rate cut is uncertain [39]. - The Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for gold, and gold is expected to soar in 2026 [41]. - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to continue strengthening [46]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Cycles - The current Kitchin cycle is in an upward phase, with China's cycle expected to peak at the end of 2025 and the US in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - China's Juglar cycle is currently in an upward phase, expected to peak in early 2027 [8]. - The current Kuznets cycle in China is expected to bottom out around 2030 [9]. - The current K-wave depression phase started in 2020 due to the COVID-19 impact and is expected to end around 2030, followed by a 10-year recovery phase. China is the center of the current technological innovation cycle, and AI is the greatest technological innovation [10]. 2. A-share Market - A-share market has a 10-year cycle law, and the current bull market is in the main uptrend. The dominant styles are science and technology innovation and AI, and related indexes and their corresponding ETFs are expected to perform strongly [12][13]. 3. Economic Growth Driving Force - Against the backdrop of anti-involution, manufacturing and infrastructure investment slow down, and exports are expected to decelerate. Consumption will become the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [15][17]. 4. Stock Market Wealth Effect - The stock market's upward movement creates a wealth effect, boosting residents' consumption ability and building a super-large Chinese market. It also promotes the migration of residents' savings to the stock market, providing funds for technological innovation [19]. 5. Capital Flow - In July, residents' savings began to migrate to equity assets, and the wealth effect of the stock market is emerging. The real interest rate approaching zero will accelerate this migration [21][25]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, leading to a large-scale outflow of international funds from US stocks and bonds and an influx into Chinese assets, which will drive up the Chinese equity market [26][29]. 6. AI and Stock Market Style - The release of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action indicates China's full AI transformation, making science and technology innovation and AI the continuous dominant styles in the stock market, and AI ETFs are expected to perform well [31][35]. 7. Bond Market - The stock market's rise causes a large-scale transfer of funds from the bond market, and bond funds face continuous large-scale redemptions. Anti-involution leads to rising inflation and a real interest rate approaching zero, further reducing bond holdings [36][38]. 8. Commodities - Anti-involution mainly boosts consumer goods and downstream manufacturing products, has limited impact on upstream resources, and the recovery strength of commodities after the Fed's interest rate cut is uncertain [39][40]. 9. Gold - The Fed's interest rate cut in September is favorable for gold, and gold is expected to soar in 2026, repeating the glory of the 1970s [41]. 10. Foreign Exchange - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to continue strengthening, with a possible sharp appreciation to below 7 by the end of the year [46][49]. 11. Outlook for September of Various Asset Classes - Equity assets: A-share market enters a major bull market, with continuous capital inflows driving the market up, and the dominant style is AI + [50]. - Bond assets: Anti-involution leads to deflation exit, real interest rate approaching zero, the bond market serving as ammunition for the stock market's rise, and bond funds facing large-scale redemptions [50]. - Commodities: Anti-involution boosts consumer goods and downstream manufacturing products, with uncertain recovery strength after the Fed's interest rate cut [50]. - Gold assets: The Fed's interest rate cut in September is favorable for gold, and gold is expected to soar in 2026 [50]. - Foreign exchange assets: Trade and capital are expected to have a double surplus, and the offshore RMB is expected to continue strengthening [50].

Group 1 - The ETF market opened with mixed performance on August 29, with notable gains and losses among various ETFs [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board Index ETF (兴银, 589580) saw a significant increase of 19.71% [1] - The Bank of China Securities 500 ETF (中银证券, 515190) rose by 5.52%, while the A100 ETF from E Fund (易方达, 159686) increased by 4.46% [1] Group 2 - Conversely, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index ETF (科创50指数ETF, 588870) experienced a decline of 2.97% [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Enhanced ETF from Southern (南方, 588370) fell by 2.95% [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF from Invesco (景顺, 588950) decreased by 2.89% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rally, driven by improved market confidence, active capital flow, heightened investor risk appetite, and a booming industrial sector, particularly in technology and innovation [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Policy improvements have bolstered capital market confidence and catalyzed economic recovery, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the annual target [1]. - The capital market is seeing sustained activity, with margin trading balances reaching a near 10-year high and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, attracting foreign investment due to lower valuations of Chinese assets amid a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [1]. - Investor risk appetite has significantly increased due to policy catalysts and expectations of economic recovery [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - ETFs are highlighted as effective tools for navigating the current market, addressing stock selection challenges and lowering investment thresholds, with many ETFs priced around 1 yuan per unit, making them accessible [5][6]. - The securities sector is poised for growth, supported by active trading, new business ventures by Chinese brokerages, and strong financial policies, making securities ETFs a focal point for investment [7]. - The semiconductor sector shows robust recovery, with a projected net profit growth of 104% for 2025, driven by AI advancements and domestic substitution trends [7]. - The cloud computing sector is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for computing power, with ETFs capturing both domestic and Hong Kong market opportunities [7]. - The robotics sector is experiencing rapid development, with various products and themes emerging, presenting investment opportunities in robotics ETFs [7]. - Traditional energy and new energy sectors are also highlighted, with ETFs focusing on industrial metals and renewable energy benefiting from favorable policies and market demand [7][8]. Group 3: Consumer and Technology Focus - The consumer sector is gaining traction, with significant inflows into consumer ETFs, reflecting a strong emphasis on domestic consumption [8]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors are expected to thrive under supportive policies and market conditions, with ETFs focusing on technology innovation and growth [9].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a collective increase, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 0.14% and the corresponding ETF (588870) gaining 0.1%, indicating active trading with a turnover rate exceeding 8.5% [1] - The Sci-Tech 50 Index ETF has experienced a continuous decline for 7 days, but has seen accelerated capital inflow during this period, with a total net inflow exceeding 51 million yuan and a net inflow rate of over 29% [1] - Over the past 60 days, the ETF has received a net subscription of more than 127 million yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - A meeting on May 27 emphasized the importance of cooperation between China and Europe in the semiconductor supply chain, with representatives from over 40 companies participating [3] - The meeting highlighted China's commitment to expanding high-level openness and providing a stable policy environment for semiconductor enterprises, aiming to enhance mutual advantages and combat unilateralism [3] - The majority of the Sci-Tech 50 Index ETF's constituent stocks, including Cambricon, Chipone, and others, showed slight increases, with gains within 1% [3] Group 3 - Guosen Securities noted that the electronics industry is benefiting from the rise of DeepSeek and demand from domestic subsidies for home appliances and mobile phones, indicating a high level of prosperity in the sector [4] - The ongoing tariff disputes are expected to ease, leading to increased overseas order procurement and inventory reserves, contributing to an upward trend in the industry [4] - Guosen Securities remains optimistic about the electronics sector's valuation expansion in 2025, supported by strong fundamentals and macroeconomic policies [4] Group 4 - Huawei and Tencent Cloud have signed cooperation agreements with humanoid robot companies to accelerate the application of embodied intelligence in various scenarios [5] - The partnerships aim to enhance product technology development and promote the efficiency of humanoid robots in industrial and domestic settings [5] - The involvement of major tech companies is expected to expedite the deployment of humanoid robots across multiple applications, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related chip companies [5] Group 5 - The Sci-Tech 50 Index ETF (588870) has outperformed its benchmark index with a return of 1.32% since its launch on January 27, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index itself has seen a decline of 0.43% [6] - The ETF includes the 50 largest and most liquid stocks on the Sci-Tech board, covering sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computer technology [6] - The ETF boasts low management and custody fees, making it an attractive option for investors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Chinese version of the stabilization fund" signifies a strategic response to external tariff pressures, showcasing China's commitment to maintaining market stability and investor confidence [1][11][20]. Group 1: Strategic Significance of the "Chinese Version of the Stabilization Fund" - The mechanism serves to isolate internal and external risks, effectively countering the impact of external tariffs on the capital market through coordinated actions by central financial institutions [4][11]. - It aims to reshape market pricing logic and investment ecology by guiding funds towards long-term value investments through the continuous purchase of strategic ETFs [11][12]. - The initiative promotes alignment between capital markets and national strategies, accelerating the valuation reconstruction of core assets in emerging industries [12][13]. Group 2: Policy Coordination and Market Response - Multi-departmental collaboration in response to tariff challenges reflects a strong policy determination and confidence, with potential future actions including support for export enterprises and increased consumer spending [19][20]. - The coordinated response sends multiple positive signals, including a commitment to safeguarding national interests and stabilizing market expectations [19][20]. - The combination of monetary, fiscal, and industrial policy tools demonstrates a comprehensive approach to managing market sentiment and reducing irrational decision-making risks [20]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Value in Capital Markets - The current economic resilience and low valuation levels provide a solid foundation for long-term investment in Chinese assets, with expectations of GDP growth exceeding 5% in the first quarter [22][24]. - The shift towards institutional investors and the emphasis on value investment principles are expected to enhance market stability and attract more patient capital [17][22]. - The ongoing structural transformation of the economy, moving from real estate-driven growth to innovation-led development, is anticipated to further enhance the investment value of the capital market [24][33]. Group 4: Global Economic Positioning - China's competitive advantages in the global economy include a vast domestic market, comprehensive industrial capabilities, and a strong emphasis on innovation in key sectors [27][28][30]. - The government's proactive policies and the robust performance of emerging industries are expected to sustain economic growth and attract foreign investment [29][30]. - The focus on high-quality development and the transition to new productive forces will play a crucial role in shaping the future landscape of the capital market [24][33].