期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 大类资产配置专题报告 2025年9月1日 | 宏观金融 | 于军礼 | | --- | --- | | 研究员： | | | 从业资格证号： | F0247894 | | 交易咨询资格： | Z0000112 | | 联系邮箱： | yujunli@greendh.com | A股进入大牛市与10年周期律 从经济四周期配置大类资产9月篇 贸易、资本有望双顺差，离岸人民币汇率有望继续走强。 各项大类资产9月展望： 权益类资产：A股财富效应显现，居民部门储蓄资金向股市大迁移 ，外资跑步入场。持续的资金流入推动股市进入大牛市。 债券类资产：反内卷走出通缩，实际利率趋向于零。国债市场成为 股市上涨的弹药库，债券基金持续大规模赎回。 A股存在10年周期律，印证A股进入大牛市。 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 反内卷大背景下，投资熄火，预期出口降速，消费将成为四季 度拉动经济增长的主要动力。 股市上行创造财富效应，提振居民部门消费能力。 居民部门储蓄资金向股市大迁移。 美联储放鸽9月降息，国际资金将从美股和美债大规模流出， 海外资金大潮涌向中国资产。外资跑步入场。 人工智能+行动发 ...

Group 1 - The ETF market opened with mixed performance on August 29, with notable gains and losses among various ETFs [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board Index ETF (兴银, 589580) saw a significant increase of 19.71% [1] - The Bank of China Securities 500 ETF (中银证券, 515190) rose by 5.52%, while the A100 ETF from E Fund (易方达, 159686) increased by 4.46% [1] Group 2 - Conversely, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index ETF (科创50指数ETF, 588870) experienced a decline of 2.97% [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Enhanced ETF from Southern (南方, 588370) fell by 2.95% [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF from Invesco (景顺, 588950) decreased by 2.89% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rally, driven by improved market confidence, active capital flow, heightened investor risk appetite, and a booming industrial sector, particularly in technology and innovation [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Policy improvements have bolstered capital market confidence and catalyzed economic recovery, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the annual target [1]. - The capital market is seeing sustained activity, with margin trading balances reaching a near 10-year high and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, attracting foreign investment due to lower valuations of Chinese assets amid a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [1]. - Investor risk appetite has significantly increased due to policy catalysts and expectations of economic recovery [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - ETFs are highlighted as effective tools for navigating the current market, addressing stock selection challenges and lowering investment thresholds, with many ETFs priced around 1 yuan per unit, making them accessible [5][6]. - The securities sector is poised for growth, supported by active trading, new business ventures by Chinese brokerages, and strong financial policies, making securities ETFs a focal point for investment [7]. - The semiconductor sector shows robust recovery, with a projected net profit growth of 104% for 2025, driven by AI advancements and domestic substitution trends [7]. - The cloud computing sector is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for computing power, with ETFs capturing both domestic and Hong Kong market opportunities [7]. - The robotics sector is experiencing rapid development, with various products and themes emerging, presenting investment opportunities in robotics ETFs [7]. - Traditional energy and new energy sectors are also highlighted, with ETFs focusing on industrial metals and renewable energy benefiting from favorable policies and market demand [7][8]. Group 3: Consumer and Technology Focus - The consumer sector is gaining traction, with significant inflows into consumer ETFs, reflecting a strong emphasis on domestic consumption [8]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors are expected to thrive under supportive policies and market conditions, with ETFs focusing on technology innovation and growth [9].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a collective increase, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 0.14% and the corresponding ETF (588870) gaining 0.1%, indicating active trading with a turnover rate exceeding 8.5% [1] - The Sci-Tech 50 Index ETF has experienced a continuous decline for 7 days, but has seen accelerated capital inflow during this period, with a total net inflow exceeding 51 million yuan and a net inflow rate of over 29% [1] - Over the past 60 days, the ETF has received a net subscription of more than 127 million yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - A meeting on May 27 emphasized the importance of cooperation between China and Europe in the semiconductor supply chain, with representatives from over 40 companies participating [3] - The meeting highlighted China's commitment to expanding high-level openness and providing a stable policy environment for semiconductor enterprises, aiming to enhance mutual advantages and combat unilateralism [3] - The majority of the Sci-Tech 50 Index ETF's constituent stocks, including Cambricon, Chipone, and others, showed slight increases, with gains within 1% [3] Group 3 - Guosen Securities noted that the electronics industry is benefiting from the rise of DeepSeek and demand from domestic subsidies for home appliances and mobile phones, indicating a high level of prosperity in the sector [4] - The ongoing tariff disputes are expected to ease, leading to increased overseas order procurement and inventory reserves, contributing to an upward trend in the industry [4] - Guosen Securities remains optimistic about the electronics sector's valuation expansion in 2025, supported by strong fundamentals and macroeconomic policies [4] Group 4 - Huawei and Tencent Cloud have signed cooperation agreements with humanoid robot companies to accelerate the application of embodied intelligence in various scenarios [5] - The partnerships aim to enhance product technology development and promote the efficiency of humanoid robots in industrial and domestic settings [5] - The involvement of major tech companies is expected to expedite the deployment of humanoid robots across multiple applications, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related chip companies [5] Group 5 - The Sci-Tech 50 Index ETF (588870) has outperformed its benchmark index with a return of 1.32% since its launch on January 27, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index itself has seen a decline of 0.43% [6] - The ETF includes the 50 largest and most liquid stocks on the Sci-Tech board, covering sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computer technology [6] - The ETF boasts low management and custody fees, making it an attractive option for investors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Chinese version of the stabilization fund" signifies a strategic response to external tariff pressures, showcasing China's commitment to maintaining market stability and investor confidence [1][11][20]. Group 1: Strategic Significance of the "Chinese Version of the Stabilization Fund" - The mechanism serves to isolate internal and external risks, effectively countering the impact of external tariffs on the capital market through coordinated actions by central financial institutions [4][11]. - It aims to reshape market pricing logic and investment ecology by guiding funds towards long-term value investments through the continuous purchase of strategic ETFs [11][12]. - The initiative promotes alignment between capital markets and national strategies, accelerating the valuation reconstruction of core assets in emerging industries [12][13]. Group 2: Policy Coordination and Market Response - Multi-departmental collaboration in response to tariff challenges reflects a strong policy determination and confidence, with potential future actions including support for export enterprises and increased consumer spending [19][20]. - The coordinated response sends multiple positive signals, including a commitment to safeguarding national interests and stabilizing market expectations [19][20]. - The combination of monetary, fiscal, and industrial policy tools demonstrates a comprehensive approach to managing market sentiment and reducing irrational decision-making risks [20]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Value in Capital Markets - The current economic resilience and low valuation levels provide a solid foundation for long-term investment in Chinese assets, with expectations of GDP growth exceeding 5% in the first quarter [22][24]. - The shift towards institutional investors and the emphasis on value investment principles are expected to enhance market stability and attract more patient capital [17][22]. - The ongoing structural transformation of the economy, moving from real estate-driven growth to innovation-led development, is anticipated to further enhance the investment value of the capital market [24][33]. Group 4: Global Economic Positioning - China's competitive advantages in the global economy include a vast domestic market, comprehensive industrial capabilities, and a strong emphasis on innovation in key sectors [27][28][30]. - The government's proactive policies and the robust performance of emerging industries are expected to sustain economic growth and attract foreign investment [29][30]. - The focus on high-quality development and the transition to new productive forces will play a crucial role in shaping the future landscape of the capital market [24][33].