【导读】美股震荡，原油暴跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 美国劳工统计局（BLS）数据显示：11月非农就业增加6.4万人，而10月为减少10.5万人。失业率在11月 升至4.6%，高于9月的4.4%，为2021年以来最高。由于政府停摆导致无法追溯补采数据，BLS并未公布 10月失业率。 Brandywine Global的副组合经理兼高级研究分析师Kevin O'Neil称："总体来看，报告的疲软程度足以证 明此前的降息合理，但对未来显著更深幅度的宽松几乎没有提供支撑。"他补充说，在劳动力市场信号 相互矛盾的情况下，进入新年后，"下一份通胀数据"可能会成为市场的主要驱动因素。 Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli认为，这份就业报告只会"加剧美联储内部的争 论"，因为美联储依赖数据做决策，而当前数据本身受扰动影响较大。 科技股普遍下跌。 | 了 筛选 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = □" | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 安谋 | | 119.15 | -4.20% | | US ARM | | | | | Applovin Co ...

Market Overview - The US stock market continues to experience volatility, with a downward trend observed on December 16, despite better-than-expected employment data for November [1][2] - The November non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, contrasting with a decrease of 105,000 in October, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021 [2] - Technology stocks generally declined during this period [2] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures fell below $55 per barrel for the first time since February 2021, with intraday losses exceeding 3% [4] - The oil market is facing its worst performance in nearly seven years, with WTI crude down approximately 22% year-to-date, marking the worst annual performance since 2018 [6] - Brent crude has also seen a decline of nearly 20%, the worst since 2020 [6] - Key factors contributing to the pressure on oil prices include OPEC+ members increasing production after years of cuts and the potential for reduced geopolitical risks, particularly regarding a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia [7]

Economic Indicators - The US Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth rebounded slightly to 5.9%, with a four-week moving average of 5.45%[5] - The WEI index for the US fell to 2, down from 2.27 the previous week, indicating a decrease in economic activity[4] - The German WAI index rose to approximately 0.18, up from 0.08 the previous week, suggesting improved economic conditions[4] Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US decreased to 0.511 from 0.514 a week earlier, indicating tighter financial conditions[7] - The offshore dollar liquidity is tightening, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -25.8bp, worsening from -24.3bp a week prior[8] - The credit spreads for US investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds widened, with high-yield spreads at 2.91bp, compared to 2.96bp a week earlier[9] Price Trends - The RJ/CRB commodity price index stood at 302.35, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous week[6] - US gasoline prices rebounded to $2.93 per gallon, up 1% from the previous week[6] Interest Rate Spreads - The 10-year US-Japan government bond spread narrowed to 240.5bp from 241.6bp the previous week[10] - The 10-year Italian-German bond spread decreased to 75.5bp from 76bp a week earlier, indicating reduced risk perception in the Eurozone[10]

Core Insights - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has reduced supply risks in the Middle East, leading to a decline in oil prices [1] - U.S. gasoline prices have followed the trend of oil futures, experiencing a drop of 5% within the day, marking a two-week low [1] Industry Impact - The reduction in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is likely to stabilize oil supply chains, which could positively influence global oil markets [1] - The decrease in gasoline prices may provide relief to consumers and impact overall demand dynamics in the energy sector [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices showed a strong performance, with the fundamentals tightening on a sequential basis, concerns over geopolitical risks escalating, greater fluctuations in crude oil spreads, and rising absolute prices. WTI outperformed Brent and Dubai. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased, while the drawdown of US commercial inventories exceeded expectations, and the number of US oil rigs dropped significantly. On the negative side, leading data from the US job market indicated a cooling trend, the latest apparent demand for US gasoline and diesel declined sharply. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of end - product demand. This week, refining margins in Europe and the US declined on a sequential basis, while those in Asia remained high. Saudi Arabia and other countries lowered their official selling prices to Asia in July to multi - year lows, and there were market rumors that Saudi Arabia intended to push OPEC+ to continue increasing production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and September to consolidate market share. Recently, the valuation repair of Brent and WTI crude oil has been realized, and the focus has shifted to whether geopolitical risks (such as the US - Iran and Israel - Palestine situations) will escalate substantially. High - selling opportunities for absolute prices can be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - From May 30 to June 6, 2025, WTI increased by $1.21, Brent by $1.13, and Dubai by $0.97. Other indicators such as spreads and refined product prices also showed corresponding changes. For example, the BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.15, and the RBOB - BRT decreased by $0.54 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - As of June 3, Brent crude oil speculators increased their net long positions by 8,813 lots to 167,763 lots, reaching a two - month high [3]. - On June 6, the US Treasury imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran, targeting 10 individuals and 27 entities, as well as some entities in the UAE and Asia [4]. - HSBC Research stated that OPEC+ is expected to agree to two significant production increases in August and September, raising daily production by 41,000 barrels and 274,000 barrels respectively. It is also expected that the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day will be fully lifted by the end of 2025. However, there is an increased downside risk to the forecast of Brent crude oil at $65 per barrel in Q4 2025 due to weak fundamentals after the summer production increase [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels (a 0.63% decline), and the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels (a 0.2% increase) [4][5]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratio of gasoline increased, while that of diesel decreased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded on a sequential basis, and that of local refineries improved [5].