晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|牛市的规律与洼地》投资策略 1、国内：7 月财政收支均回升，土地成交小幅转冷。7 月财政收入累计 同比回正，当月同比回升转正，税收收入同比回升，非税收入同比继续回 落，财政支出同比回升。7 月全国政府性基金收入、国有土地使用权出让 收入同比回落，全国政府性基金支出同比回落。2、国际：鲍威尔发言加 大市场押注降息概率。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发言"放鸽"，市 场加大押注 9 月降息的力度。截至 2025/8/23，美联储 2025 年 9 月降息 25 基点的概率为 75%，维持现有利率的概率为 25%。3、行业配置建议： 赛点 2.0 第三阶段攻坚不易，波折难免，重视恒生互联网。红利回撤常在 有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的高度取决于 AI 产业趋势的 进展，而 AI 产业趋势的进展又取决于 AI 应用端和消费端的突破。消费板 块投资的核心因子是估值，在当前消费板块低估值、利率下行、政策催化 下复苏周期抬头，以宏观叙事而对消费过分悲观反而是一种风险，重视恒 生互联网。 风险提示：地缘冲突超预期，海外通胀持续性超预期，流动性收紧超预期。 《金工|量化择时周 ...

Industry Environment - Chinese companies are accelerating their overseas expansion towards emerging markets and "Belt and Road" countries, despite facing increased scrutiny and trade barriers from Western nations [1][4] - The micro-drama industry has seen rapid international growth, reaching a user base of 576 million across over 200 countries, with successful cultural exports [1][3] - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors are experiencing divergent paths due to recent U.S. policy changes, with energy storage benefiting from extended tax credits [4] Cross-Border E-commerce Trends - By 2025, cross-border e-commerce is expected to enter a "refinement" phase, with total import and export volume reaching 2.71 trillion yuan, and independent sites becoming a core vehicle for brand expansion [5] - Chinese beauty brands are leveraging cross-border e-commerce to meet rising global demand for DIY beauty products, focusing on localization and compliance [10][11] Chinese Brands Going Global - The next decade is seen as a golden period for Chinese brands to expand internationally, driven by global acceptance and manufacturing upgrades [9] - Chinese toy brands are innovating product forms and utilizing social media for market expansion, despite facing challenges in Southeast Asia and Japan [6][7] Automotive Industry Expansion - Chinese automotive companies are adopting a "deep cultivation" strategy in overseas markets, focusing on local production and smart driving technologies [8] - BYD plans to launch customized electric light vehicles in Japan by 2026, aiming to increase brand recognition in a competitive market [20] Food and Beverage Sector - Yuanqi Forest is successfully entering global markets with its health-oriented products, adapting to local tastes and compliance requirements [21][22] - Tea brand Chayan Yuesheng is entering the U.S. market through e-commerce, focusing on snacks and tea-related products rather than traditional tea [19]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its full island closure operation on December 18, with related policies to be released on the same day, which is expected to bring significant benefits to both domestic and foreign enterprises [1][2] - After the full closure, the proportion of "zero tariff" imported goods under the "first line" will increase from 21% to 74%, and there will be open arrangements for certain currently prohibited and restricted imported goods [1][2] - The full closure policy is seen as systematic and enhances the operational feasibility of the "zero tariff, low tax rate, and simplified tax system" policy framework, which is expected to encourage companies to invest in Hainan [1][2] Group 2 - The implementation of a negative list management for "zero tariff" imported goods will significantly reduce compliance costs for cross-border e-commerce companies, allowing for more flexible inventory adjustments [2] - Key parks in the Hainan Free Trade Port will also benefit from the full closure, with logistics and supply chain costs being reduced due to the exemption of import taxes on goods traded between enterprises within the island [2] - The policy aligns with expectations for trade liberalization and facilitation, promoting a more relaxed management approach under the principle of "everything not prohibited is allowed" [2] Group 3 - Foreign shipping companies, such as Hainan Xinle Shipping Co., Ltd., are expected to see a significant reduction in operational restrictions post-closure, allowing for adjustments in fleet size based on market conditions [3]

Core Insights - The Colombian government prioritizes strengthening cooperation with China as a significant opportunity for economic growth and market expansion [1][2] - Colombia aims to diversify its exports to China beyond coffee, including avocados, flowers, and beauty products, and will participate in the upcoming China International Import Expo [1] - Collaboration with China is seen as crucial not only for trade but also for investment, technology transfer, and experience sharing, particularly in infrastructure and energy transition [1] - The Colombian government is working to facilitate travel and business interactions between the two countries by improving visa processes and enhancing security measures [1] Trade and Investment - Colombia's strategy towards China is a long-term development choice rather than a short-term response to changing circumstances [2] - The partnership under the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to foster mutual benefits and shared development between Colombia and China [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evaluation criteria and categories for product assessments in various industries, emphasizing the importance of user experience and performance metrics in determining product quality [1][2][13]. Group 1: Coverage Areas - The evaluation covers multiple sectors including new energy, home appliances, automotive, office, digital, and lifestyle products [1][2]. - Specific categories include beauty and personal care, food and beverage, and various technology products [5][13]. Group 2: Evaluation Dimensions - Evaluation dimensions for home appliances and office products include product performance, design, cost-effectiveness, and user experience, with weightings of 10%, 30%, 20%, and 40% respectively [1]. - For digital and lifestyle products, the dimensions are similar but with different weightings, emphasizing performance and design [2]. - In the automotive sector, dimensions include automatic driving, control, and smart features, with a focus on user experience and design [2]. Group 3: Evaluation Timeline - The evaluation process is set to start on July 7, 2025, with product submissions from September 1 to September 3, 2025, and a planned release date for results on September 26, 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Silk Road Central Asia International Daily Necessities Expo will take place from November 1 to 3 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, serving as a significant platform for the daily necessities industry to explore transformation paths and reshape the industry landscape [6][11]. Group 1: Event Overview - The expo will cover an exhibition area of over 20,000 square meters and is expected to attract over 500 quality enterprises from dozens of countries and regions [5]. - The range of exhibits will include household cleaning products, beauty and personal care items, creative home decorations, and kitchen supplies, showcasing the latest industry trends and innovations [5][10]. Group 2: Industry Significance - The event is positioned as a key opportunity for the daily necessities industry to seek transformation and innovation amid the ongoing "Belt and Road" initiative [6][13]. - It aims to enhance cooperation in the Central Asian market, leveraging Uzbekistan's unique geographical advantages and rich natural resources [5][11]. Group 3: Supporting Activities - A series of forums will be held during the expo, featuring industry experts and executives discussing topics such as sustainable development and evolving consumer trends, providing strategic insights for businesses [8]. - One-on-one business negotiation meetings will facilitate connections between exhibitors and buyers, helping to establish partnerships and cooperation intentions [8][10]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - The expo will highlight the application of cutting-edge technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things in the daily necessities sector, showcasing digital transformation possibilities [10]. - Participating companies will have the opportunity to enhance their brand visibility and understand market demands in Central Asia, thus expanding sales channels and identifying potential customers [10][11]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The successful hosting of the expo is expected to inject new vitality into the daily necessities industry, promoting innovation and upgrading while strengthening trade and investment exchanges between China and Central Asia [11][13]. - The event is anticipated to contribute positively to building a closer global economic community through enhanced cooperation in trade, investment, and technology [13].

Core Insights - The third Chain Expo, scheduled from July 16 to 20, will introduce a "Chain Expo Launch Station" for showcasing new products, technologies, and scenarios from participating companies, reflecting the growing trend of the "launch economy" in China [1] - The launch economy aligns with consumer upgrade trends and high-quality development, allowing traditional retail formats to innovate consumption scenarios and optimize operational models through REITs [1][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - The "Summer Anime Season" at Beijing Xidan Joy City generated over 15 million yuan in sales, contributing to nearly 700 million yuan in total sales and attracting around 4.5 million visitors [2] - In the first four months of this year, Shanghai added 301 new stores, including 7 global and Asian first stores, with high-level stores making up 16% of the total [2] - The launch economy is enhancing both offline and online consumption, with Tmall reporting that 12 new products surpassed 100 million yuan in sales during the "618" shopping festival [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The growth of the launch economy is driven by changing consumer demographics and preferences, particularly among younger consumers who favor limited edition and co-branded products [3] - The silver economy, primarily driven by the "60s" generation, also shows strong consumption power and demand [3] Group 3: Policy and Innovation - Various cities are implementing innovative policies to enhance the efficiency of new product launches, such as Shanghai's pilot program for import consumer goods inspection [4] - The central government encourages the development of the launch economy through tailored policies, promoting the establishment of first stores and launch events for quality brands [5] Group 4: Future Directions - The launch economy is seen as a key driver for consumption growth, with a shift from basic needs to more diverse and quality-oriented consumption patterns [5] - Shopping centers are encouraged to innovate their physical spaces and integrate various business formats to enhance economic value and social impact [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of young entrepreneurs in the cross-border e-commerce sector, showcasing their innovative approaches and success stories in leveraging platforms like TikTok for business growth [1][2][4]. Group 1: Young Entrepreneurs - Wu Danhui, a post-00s entrepreneur, has achieved over 10 million in annual revenue as a leading seller in the U.S. car accessories category on TikTok, emphasizing the importance of data over intuition for product selection [2][3]. - Wu believes that cross-border e-commerce products should have a gross margin of at least 30% to ensure profitability, as the costs associated with international shipping are significant [2]. - Lu Xiaoxuan, another young seller, emphasizes that not all brands are suitable for influencer marketing, highlighting the need for strategic alignment between products and influencers [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article contrasts domestic e-commerce with cross-border e-commerce, noting that the latter is more aligned with interest-driven purchasing, akin to TikTok compared to traditional platforms like Taobao [3]. - The importance of brand storytelling and differentiation in packaging is underscored by Chu Chao, a leading figure in the beauty sector on TikTok, who stresses that consumer trust is essential for repeat purchases [6][7]. - Chu advocates for a focus on product selection and understanding consumer needs, suggesting that successful brands must balance novelty with sustainable growth potential [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of live commerce in China, particularly during major shopping events like 618, highlighting the shift from traditional metrics like GMV to a focus on the roles and dynamics of individuals within the industry [6][21]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The number of online streamers in China reached 38.8 million by the end of 2024, a 150% increase year-on-year, indicating a significant growth in the workforce dedicated to live commerce [8]. - The live commerce ecosystem is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on operational roles and the integration of AI, leading to a more structured and efficient environment [21][23]. - The contribution of top streamers to overall GMV is diminishing, with only 9% of GMV coming from top streamers with over one million followers, while mid-tier and long-tail streamers contribute significantly more [24]. Group 2: Employment Opportunities - The live commerce sector is projected to create between 25 to 30 million new jobs in China, with cities like Hangzhou leading in the number of streamers and related businesses [36][39]. - The demand for diverse roles in live commerce is increasing, including positions like data analysts, content creators, and AI operators, reflecting a shift towards a more data-driven approach [29][38]. - The article emphasizes that live commerce is a unique economic model capable of generating employment, with estimates suggesting that every 1 billion yuan in GMV can create approximately 1,200 jobs [39]. Group 3: Market Trends - Major cities in China are competing to establish themselves as "live commerce hubs," with ambitious sales targets set for the coming years, such as Shenzhen aiming for 300 billion yuan in sales by 2025 [40]. - The article notes that the live commerce industry is characterized by its adaptability, with platforms continuously evolving to meet changing consumer preferences and technological advancements [41]. - The growth trajectory of live commerce remains steep, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 18% from 2024 to 2026, indicating robust market potential [38].

Industry Growth - The global beauty and personal care industry continues to show strong sales growth, with North America growing by 10%, Europe by 11%, and Latin America by 19%, leading to an overall global growth of 12%. Over the next decade, consumer demand for beauty is expected to drive a $300 billion increase, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% [1][4]. Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumer budgets are showing a bifurcation into "refined frugality" and "true luxury," indicating that while there is a trend towards spending less, consumers still prioritize high-end products. The demand for high-end products remains significant, and consumers are also purchasing larger packaging [1][5]. - There is a notable shift in usage scenarios, with increased demand for products related to parties and commuting. The largest share is attributed to party-related products, while commuting needs are growing the fastest [1][5]. Product Development Trends - Health and functionality are becoming key factors for consumers in the Asia-Pacific region when selecting beauty and personal care products. Chinese consumers particularly value moisturizing, anti-aging, and whitening effects, with a strong demand for multifunctional products. Men's skincare is also evolving towards more specialized formulations [2][4]. - The cosmetics store remains a crucial offline channel, while online social e-commerce platforms are seeing significant growth in skincare product sales. Brands need to leverage channel characteristics to meet consumer demands effectively [2][5]. Industry Development Direction - In the new normal, Chinese consumers are pursuing a quality lifestyle that offers value. The beauty and personal care industry should capitalize on channel opportunities, such as emphasizing cosmetics stores and social e-commerce platforms. It is essential to cater to diverse consumer value demands, balancing high-end and cost-effective products, while focusing on product quality and health functionality to adapt to market changes and achieve sustainable growth [2][4].