证券研究报告 可选消费 海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录 可选消费 增持 (维持) 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 惠普 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090006 SFC No. BSE005 孙丹阳 研究员 SAC No. S0570519010001 sundanyang@htsc.com SFC No. BQQ696 +(86) 21 2897 2038 张霜凝* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc.com 华泰研究 复盘 2025 年海外集团在华经营表现，我们认为我国高端消费初显回暖信号。 以 LVMH 为例，FY3Q25 中国区销售额回正，录得中-高个位数同比增长 （vs1H25 亚太区：-9%），改善趋势逐步显现。品类上看，消费者重视价 值与体验，从面子走向里子，高端服务消费领先复苏，高端商品表现分化。 拉长看 ...

Core Insights - Unilever's total revenue for 2025 was €50.5 billion (approximately ¥413.9 billion), with a base sales growth rate of 3.5% [2] - The beauty and personal care segment became the core driver, contributing over half of the total revenue [2] - The company announced a new €1.5 billion (approximately ¥12.3 billion) stock buyback plan expected to start in Q2 2026 [3] Performance Overview - Total revenue slightly missed market expectations of €51.3 billion, with a base operating profit of €10.08 billion also falling short [2] - The personal care business generated €13.2 billion with a base sales growth of 4.7%, while the beauty and health segment reached €12.8 billion with a growth of 4.3% [2] - Home care and food segments showed growth rates of 2.6% and 2.5%, respectively, indicating a trend of improvement [2] Strategic Developments - The ice cream business was successfully spun off in 2025, and the brand portfolio optimization reached 15%, reallocating resources towards the higher-margin beauty and personal care sector [3] - The company is pursuing transformation through acquisitions (e.g., Wild, Dr. Squatch) and divestitures of non-core assets (e.g., Kate Somerville, The Vegetarian Butcher) [3] Regional and Market Dynamics - Emerging markets like Asia-Pacific and Africa showed strong performance, with Indonesia's base sales growing by 12.7% [4] - The Chinese market returned to low single-digit growth after Q3 2025, while high-end product innovation drove growth in the European home care business [4] - For 2026, the company anticipates a base sales growth rate in the range of 4%-6%, with a minimum base volume growth of 2% [4] Stock Performance - As of February 12, 2026, Unilever's stock price closed at $71.86, down 1.92% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 9.88% [5]

所谓海外仓，指物流公司设在海外的仓库。2025年底，一批收费便宜的海外仓纷纷爆雷，或资金链断裂 或违规被查。陈女士没想到海外仓爆雷这种事竟被自己遇上了。她对记者表示，去年底圣诞节旺季销 售，出了很多单，但是海外仓一直没有给她们发货，微信也找不到人，当时感觉这个海外仓应该要"凉 凉"了。 经济观察报 记者 老盈盈 近日，做跨境电商的陈女士正在寻找新的、合适的美国海外仓，她发现目前洽谈的海外仓服务商所收取 的订单操作费比她之前合作的要贵多了。 由于担心以后还会发生海外仓爆雷事件，陈女士不敢把货物都放在单一海外仓中，于是又重新开始寻找 新的海外仓服务商。目前她接触的两家海外仓"一件代发"的价格基本都在1磅内1美元/件以上。 深圳市跨境电子商务协会执行会长谢卓亨对记者表示，类似2025年底一批收费便宜的海外仓之所以出现 爆雷的情况，主要是因为部分海外仓服务商为了吸引客户，以低价策略进入市场，但在运营过程中，由 于缺乏足够的资金实力、专业的仓储管理能力和完善的物流配送体系，导致服务质量下降，甚至出现无 法正常运营的情况。这种情况发生后，市场上优质的海外仓资源开始供不应求，从而导致收费上涨。 除了面临海外仓费用的增加，陈 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 唐唯珂 即便是在周末的黄金时段，曾经人头攒动的美妆店也显得有些落寞。 "消失"的美妆店 美妆实体零售正承受系统性压力，传统线下门店的优势正在被削弱。 从商超到美妆个护，线下渠道在租金、人力、供应链等多重因素影响下，经营压力显现。与此同时，电 商直播渗透率提升、消费者价格敏感度上升，正重塑着实体零售行业的竞争格局。 "美妆行业在实体零售中的利润不算低，既往无论是百货大楼时代还是购物中心时代，最好的一楼位置 都是香水化妆品，尽管电商渠道冲击不断，业态尽管一直在变，一定还会是兵家必争之地。"华南某购 物中心招商部负责人向21世纪经济报道记者说道。 在租金等固定成本难以下调、客流增量有限的背景下，原本兼具展示与销售职能的美妆实体店，其经营 效率正面临持续考验。 近两年，部分外资与连锁美妆零售品牌相继收缩阵线。 继美妆巨头莎莎于去年六月彻底告别内地市场后，2026年初，入华22年的药妆连锁万宁亦宣布关闭内地 全部线下门店及线上商城，其线下门店最后营业日定为2026年1月15日。 此外，屈臣氏近期亦传出新动向。多家媒体报道称，长江和记实业有限公司正加速推动旗下屈臣氏集团 IPO。 在传统美妆零售遇冷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high gross margins of the beauty and personal care sector compared to other fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), highlighting the potential for investment in companies like Watsons, which is planning an IPO with a target valuation of approximately $30 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The beauty and personal care products generally maintain gross margins above 60%, with leading brands like Estée Lauder achieving a gross margin of 74% in their latest financial report [1]. - In the global FMCG market, food and beverages account for 55% of sales, while beauty and personal care hold about 20% market share, which could rise to 40% when including home care and over-the-counter health products [1]. Group 2: Watsons' IPO Plans - Watsons Group, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison Holdings, is preparing for an IPO, with reports indicating a target valuation of approximately $30 billion (around 208.8 billion RMB) [2]. - The company has engaged Goldman Sachs and UBS as underwriters for the IPO, which may take place in Hong Kong or London, with expectations for the listing to occur as early as the second quarter of this year [2]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategic Moves - Watsons previously sought an IPO in 2013, claiming to be the largest beauty and personal care retailer in Asia and Europe, with over 10,500 stores and an EBITDA of $1.64 billion in 2012 [3]. - The company shifted its strategic focus from Europe to mainland China, where it saw significant revenue growth, contributing 24% of total revenue despite only having 13% of its stores in that market [4]. Group 4: Recent Performance and Challenges - By 2021, Watsons had expanded to 16,398 stores globally, but growth in mainland China slowed significantly, with a drop in store count and revenue in 2022 and 2023 [11]. - In 2023, Watsons reported a revenue of 16.453 billion HKD in mainland China, a decline of 6% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth in store count in nine years [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Investor Sentiment - The upcoming IPO is seen as a favorable exit opportunity for investors, with expectations of raising at least $2 billion and a potential valuation increase of 33% for Temasek's investment [16]. - The retail business of CK Hutchison, which includes Watsons, reported a revenue of 99 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 41% year-on-year growth, driven by strong performance in beauty and personal care sectors [15].

Core Viewpoint - The current moment may represent the best exit opportunity for investors in the past decade, particularly with the upcoming IPO of Watsons Group, which is expected to be valued at $30 billion (approximately 208.8 billion RMB) [4][19]. Group 1: Market Insights - In the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, beauty and personal care products have the highest gross margins, typically exceeding 60%, compared to food and beverage products, which generally maintain margins of 30% to 40% [3]. - The beauty and personal care segment holds approximately 20% of the global FMCG market share, with the potential to rise to 40% when including home care and over-the-counter health products [3]. Group 2: Watsons Group IPO Details - Watsons Group is preparing for an IPO, having engaged Goldman Sachs and UBS as underwriters, with potential listings in Hong Kong and London [4]. - The IPO is anticipated to occur as early as the second quarter of this year, with a target valuation of $30 billion [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategic Moves - Watsons previously sought an IPO in 2013, claiming to be the largest beauty and personal care retailer in Asia and Europe, with over 10,500 stores and an EBITDA of $1.64 billion in 2012 [6]. - In 2014, Watsons opted for strategic investment from Temasek, raising 44 billion HKD (approximately 39.2 billion RMB) for a 25% stake, which was seen as a premium investment [7][8]. Group 4: Recent Performance and Challenges - By 2021, Watsons had expanded to 16,398 stores globally, with 4,179 in mainland China, but faced a decline in growth rates, dropping from 17% in 2012 to 3% in 2019 [13]. - In 2023, Watsons reported a revenue of 16.453 billion HKD in China, a 6% decline year-on-year, marking the first negative growth in store numbers in nine years [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - Watsons is planning to open approximately 3,800 new style stores globally by 2025, with an investment of $250 million, indicating a significant strategic shift [17]. - The retail business of the parent company, CK Hutchison, is showing signs of recovery, with a 41% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, driven by strong growth in beauty and personal care sectors [18].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transformation of the Middle Eastern e-commerce landscape, highlighting that it is no longer just a "rich market" but a diverse consumer base with real opportunities for Chinese sellers [2][28]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The local e-commerce platform Noon recently secured $500 million in funding in preparation for its IPO, reflecting a 56% year-over-year growth in the local e-commerce sector [2]. - The UAE has an average order value of over $80, driven by a diverse demand from its 88% expatriate population [2]. - The rise of two main consumer groups—foreign workers and women—has significantly altered the market dynamics [4][8]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Expatriate workers, primarily from South Asia and Southeast Asia, prioritize practical and cost-effective daily necessities [4]. - The awakening of women's economic independence in Saudi Arabia has led to a shift in consumer behavior, with a labor participation rate of 36%, surpassing the "Vision 2030" target [8][10]. - The beauty and personal care market is thriving, with brands like "Hua Xizi" successfully introducing Eastern aesthetics to the Middle East [10]. Group 3: Platform Strategies - The e-commerce landscape features a competitive environment with local, international, and Chinese platforms vying for market share [13]. - Noon, backed by Saudi sovereign wealth, excels in local fulfillment and service, enabling many Chinese sellers to achieve significant online sales [13]. - Amazon's Middle East platform offers a robust global logistics system, making it a preferred choice for electronics and international brands [15]. - Chinese platforms like AliExpress and Shein are gaining traction, focusing on high cost-performance products and fast fashion, respectively [17][19]. Group 4: Seasonal Opportunities - Ramadan is identified as a critical sales period, with online orders potentially increasing by 30%, and over 50% of orders in Saudi Arabia coming from mobile devices [22][24]. - The challenge of cash-on-delivery payment methods increases return risks, but logistics providers are well-equipped to handle peak demands [24][26]. Group 5: Market Potential - The Middle East boasts an internet penetration rate nearing 99%, with markets like Saudi Arabia and the UAE continuing to expand [26]. - Turkey is projected to achieve a remarkable growth rate of 13.6%, indicating significant market potential across the region [26][28]. - The ongoing social changes, including the rise of women's roles and diverse consumer needs, are reshaping the entire consumption structure [28][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [6][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust performance in the beauty and personal care sector during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with significant sales growth across various platforms [4][28]. - The overall retail sales growth in October 2025 was 2.9%, surpassing market expectations, with notable increases in gold and jewelry sales, while categories like automotive and home appliances saw declines [3][24]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of specific companies, such as Proya and Marubi, which achieved substantial sales growth during the Double Eleven event [4][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of November 10-14, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors saw increases of 4.06%, 2.28%, and 3.75% respectively, ranking 3rd, 12th, and 4th among 31 primary industries [15][17]. Key Industry Data and News - In October 2025, retail sales grew by 2.9%, with jewelry sales increasing by 37.6%. In contrast, retail sales for home appliances and automotive categories declined by 14.6% and 6.6% respectively [3][24]. - The total retail sales for the first ten months of 2025 reached 41.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.28% [24]. Key Company Announcements - Marubi plans to issue H shares and apply for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength and competitiveness [36]. - The founder of Yonghui Supermarket intends to reduce his shareholding, potentially affecting the company's stock performance [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Proya, Giant Bio, Marubi, Runben, and Chaohongji, which are positioned well within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [6][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Finance continues to implement measures to boost consumption, including providing financial subsidies for personal consumption loans and encouraging private investment [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in October 2025, indicating effective policies to expand domestic demand [5] - The demand for trendy toys is rapidly growing, driven by Generation Z and emotional value, with AI technology integration expected to enhance growth in the sector [6] - The long-term investment advantages of gold are highlighted, with expected growth in demand due to anticipated interest rate cuts and changing consumer preferences [7] - Recent tax policy adjustments for gold are expected to accelerate industry compliance and reshape market dynamics [8] - The sports and outdoor industry is seen as a significant contributor to economic growth, with ongoing government support for high-quality development [9] - The beauty and personal care industry is transitioning from penetration expansion to quality upgrades, with a focus on domestic brands and technological advantages [10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail industry index rose by 0.31% in the week of November 3-7, 2025, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries [4] Economic Policies - The Ministry of Finance's actions aim to stimulate consumption and enhance financial cooperation with local governments [5] Consumer Trends - The CPI and core CPI show positive trends, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [5] Sector-Specific Insights - Trendy toys are experiencing rapid demand growth, with AI integration expected to drive innovation [6] - The gold and jewelry sector is poised for growth due to changing consumer preferences and favorable tax policies [7][8] - The sports and outdoor sector is benefiting from government reforms and increased consumer confidence [9] - The beauty industry is shifting towards quality and brand loyalty, with a focus on domestic products [10] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: - Gold and jewelry: Laopuyin, Laofengxiang, Chaohongji [11] - Trendy toys: Pop Mart, Bluc, TOPTOY, Lezitiancheng [11] - Sports and outdoor: Anta, Li Ning, 361 Degrees, Bosideng [11] - Beauty and personal care: Proya, Mao Ge Ping, Jinbo Biological, Runben, Dengkang Oral, Baiya [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% reflects a response to economic slowdown and political pressure, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Chinese export enterprises and cross-border e-commerce [1]. Direct Impact: Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Cost Restructuring - The depreciation of the US dollar typically leads to the appreciation of the RMB, impacting the competitiveness of export prices. For instance, the USD/RMB exchange rate fell from 7.3 to around 7.1, potentially causing a profit decline of 0.5%-1% for the textile industry with every 1% appreciation of the RMB [7][8]. - The appreciation of the RMB reduces import costs for raw materials and consumer goods, allowing cross-border e-commerce companies to optimize procurement strategies, particularly in categories like 3C electronics and beauty products [8]. - Increased exchange rate volatility raises the risk of foreign exchange losses for enterprises, with some exporters experiencing losses exceeding 5% of net profit in a single quarter due to unhedged positions [9]. Indirect Impact: Capital Flows and Market Segmentation - The Fed's rate cut encourages capital flow to emerging markets, reducing financing costs for Chinese export enterprises. For example, the dollar loan interest rate decreased from 5% to 4%, alleviating financial pressure [10]. - While US consumer spending may be stimulated by lower rates, high inflation could weaken actual purchasing power, leading to mixed demand for Chinese exports, with some categories like home appliances and clothing seeing moderate growth [12]. Long-term Trends: Industrial Upgrading and Restructuring - Traditional export sectors face pressure to upgrade due to RMB appreciation and rising labor costs, prompting a shift of low-end production to Southeast Asia. Companies are encouraged to innovate and build brands to enhance value [15]. - High-tech products and flexible supply chains are becoming central to cross-border e-commerce, with high-tech exports projected to account for 35% of total exports by 2024 [16]. - Diversification into regional markets through agreements like RCEP is essential for reducing reliance on the US market, with exports to ASEAN expected to rise to 16% by 2024 [17]. Corporate Response Strategies: From Passive Adaptation to Active Transformation - Traditional export enterprises should implement dynamic hedging strategies, diversify settlement currencies, and enhance product and market upgrades through increased R&D and brand development [18][20]. - Cross-border e-commerce companies are advised to optimize supply chains through localized procurement and flexible production, while also adjusting operational strategies to reduce dependency on third-party platforms [22][24]. Conclusion - The Fed's rate cut may intensify short-term risks for Chinese export enterprises and cross-border e-commerce, but it also compels a shift towards high-tech and high-value-added operations, necessitating a robust competitive framework for sustainable growth [29].