客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（11 月 21 日） A 股三大指数集体重挫，截止收盘，沪指跌 2.45%，收报 3834.89 点； 深证成指跌 3.41%，收报 12538.07 点；创业板指跌 4.02%，收报 2920.08 点。沪深两市成交额达到 19657 亿，较 昨日放量 2575 亿。 沪深 300 指数 11 月 21 日维持弱势。收盘 4453.61，环比下跌 111.34。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】11 月 21 日焦炭加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1658.8，环比下跌 17.2。 11 月 21 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 1136.2 元，环比下跌 10.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：行业利润不佳，焦企提产动能不足，高频数据显示焦企开工率周环比小幅回落，焦炭供应收缩。需求， 钢厂高炉小幅复产，但终端需求逐步走弱，钢厂提产空间有限。各环节焦炭库存低位，但考虑到下游利润不佳， 现货继续提涨乏力。 焦煤：部分前期因井下因素限产煤矿陆续复产，但主产区个别煤矿仍受到其他因素制 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On October 29, 2025, the A - share market had a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 4000 points, and trading volume approaching 2.3 trillion yuan [1]. - Multiple commodity futures showed different trends. For example, the weighted indices of coke and coking coal strengthened, while palm oil hit a three - month low [2][3][6]. - The supply and demand situation of various commodities is complex. For instance, the sugar market is affected by increased supply and reduced demand expectations, and the pig market has a supply - surplus situation that is difficult to reverse in the short term [4][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 29, the major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 4016.33, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95% to 13691.38, the ChiNext Index rose 2.93% to 3324.27, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 8.41% to 1573.71. The trading volume of the three markets was nearly 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4747.84, up 55.87 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 29, the weighted index of coke rebounded strongly, closing at 1828.6, up 36.7; the weighted index of coking coal trended stronger in shock, closing at 1318.5 yuan, up 47.0 [2][3]. - For coke, the second - round price increase was implemented. The iron - making output decreased seasonally, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants was - 41 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the "West - to - East Coal Transport" artery, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, completed its autumn maintenance. The mine - end operating rate dropped due to safety inspections, the inventory was neutral, and the operating rate of coal - washing plants increased for two consecutive weeks [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Six different institutions expect Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season to reach 4,228 million tons, higher than 4,052 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The US sugar futures fell on Tuesday due to concerns about increased supply and reduced demand. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated and closed slightly higher on Wednesday [4]. Rubber - Affected by heavy rainfall in central Vietnam, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia have been rising slightly in shock recently. Supported by factors such as strong EU passenger car sales data in September and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the Shanghai rubber futures rose significantly on Wednesday [5]. Palm Oil - On October 29, palm oil broke through the lower edge of the range, hitting a three - month low. The main contract P2601 closed at 8842, down 1.29% from the previous day. The benchmark palm oil contract for January delivery on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 65 ringgit, or 1.51%, at 4,252 ringgit per metric ton [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 29, CBOT soybean futures oscillated. The market expects Sino - US soybean trade to resume. Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 36% as of October 23, and the expected output is 1.767 billion tons. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 105.2 million tons, up 13.48% from the previous week [7]. Live Pigs - On October 29, the LH2601 main contract closed at 12185 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The widening of the price difference between standard and fat pigs attracted second - round fattening, providing short - term support for pig prices. However, the oversupply situation in October has not changed fundamentally, and the rebound space of pig prices is limited [8]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper trended stronger in shock. Supported by China's "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, the easing of Sino - US trade tariffs, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk appetite increased. Fundamentally, Indonesia's mine accident and the shutdown of overseas mines led to a tight supply - demand balance, and the ICSG predicted a shortage of refined copper in 2026 [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13650 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 11 lots compared to the previous day. The prices of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang were in the ranges of 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg and 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg respectively, and the cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang was faster than in previous years [9]. Iron Ore - On October 29, the 2601 main contract of iron ore rose 1.96% to 804.5 yuan. The shipment volume of iron ore increased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume decreased significantly for two consecutive periods. The iron - making output continued to decline, but the positive macro - atmosphere at home and abroad boosted market sentiment, and the iron ore price oscillated in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On October 29, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 0.21% to 3274 yuan. The asphalt supply decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. As the temperature dropped, the demand entered the end of the peak season, and the asphalt price followed the cost - end crude oil price and oscillated in the short term [10][11]. Logs - On October 29, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 786.5, with a minimum of 786, a maximum of 790.5, and closed at 787, with an increase of 41 lots in positions. The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the market is gradually reducing inventory [11].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On October 14, 2025, most futures varieties showed different trends. A - share stock indexes generally declined, while some futures like coke and焦煤 showed slight increases, and others like sugar, rubber, and palm oil were affected by various factors and showed downward or fluctuating trends [1][2][3][4]. Industry Analysis Stock Index Futures - On October 14, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62% to 3865.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99% to 2955.98 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2576.2 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4539.06, a decline of 54.91 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 14, the coke weighted index showed a weak shock, closing at 1665.5, a rise of 4.8. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1167.5 yuan, a rise of 6.5. Coke's coking profit is near the break - even point, and the demand increment is insufficient. Coking coal's supply recovery is slow, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the prospect of global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season and other factors, the US sugar fell on Monday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell sharply on Tuesday and then had a slight rebound at night. As of the end of September, Guangxi's sugar sales volume increased, but the sales rate decreased, and the industrial inventory increased [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade relations, crude oil prices, and Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday and had a slight decline at night. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased compared with the same period in 2024 [6]. Palm Oil - On October 14, palm oil futures prices declined slightly. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November while keeping the export tariff unchanged [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 14, CBOT soybean futures were weakly volatile. Domestically, soybean meal futures were also weakly volatile. High imports of soybeans and the expected early listing of Brazilian soybeans help ease concerns about the supply shortage [8]. Live Pigs - On October 14, live pig futures rebounded from a low level. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but it is expected to stabilize and rebound after November, with the rebound height limited by over - capacity expectations [9]. Shanghai Copper - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and overseas copper mine supply disturbances support copper prices, but Sino - US trade disputes and weak domestic demand lead to copper price fluctuations. The inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected [9]. Iron Ore - On October 14, the iron ore 2601 contract declined. The supply is relatively loose, and there is an increasing pressure on steel mills to reduce production in the future, so the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 14, the asphalt 2511 contract declined. The production and shipment of asphalt decreased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds, so the price is in a volatile trend [10]. Logs - On October 14, log futures prices continued to decline. The spot price remained stable, and the import volume from January to September decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a pattern of inventory reduction [12]. Cotton - On the night of October 14, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13240 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Sino - US trade war has a certain suppressing effect on the cotton market [12]. Steel - On October 14, steel futures prices showed a general downward trend. After the holiday, steel demand is average, the inventory reduction speed may be slow, and the cost support is insufficient, so the steel price may be weakly volatile in the short term [12]. Alumina - On October 14, alumina futures closed at 2805 yuan/ton. The spot market supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to continue to decline [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 14, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20860 yuan/ton. The macro - situation is complex, and the supply is stable. The demand is improving, and the social inventory in the East China region has decreased [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Dongfang Yuhong reported significant growth in its other main revenue streams, which include products from new sectors such as non-woven fabrics, Hongshi emulsion, Jin Si Nan membrane, pipe industry, and adhesives [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company's other main revenue reached 1.138 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.97% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in "other main revenue" for the first half of 2025, indicating strong growth in new product categories and market segments [1] Group 1 - The "other main revenue" for the first half of 2025 reached 1.138 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.97% [1] - The revenue growth is attributed to new product lines including non-woven fabrics, Hongshi emulsion, silk nanomembrane, pipe industry products, and adhesives [1] - The company emphasized the resilience of growth in new categories and market segments, supported by brand and channel synergies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a significant decline in net profit, the company continues to propose a high dividend plan for the first half of 2025, raising questions about its financial strategy and sustainability [2][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.569 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 564 million yuan, down 40.16% [3]. - The decline in net profit has been attributed to lower-than-expected market demand, with a consistent downward trend observed since 2024 [3]. - The company's main business segments, including waterproof materials and mortar powder, experienced revenue declines, while other main income sources grew by 46.97% to 1.138 billion yuan [3]. Dividend Plan - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling approximately 2.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [2][6]. - This follows a previous cash dividend of 1.462 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, and a revised plan from an initially proposed 4.4 billion yuan for the 2024 fiscal year [6]. Geographic Revenue Distribution - Over 95% of the company's revenue still comes from domestic operations, with international revenue accounting for 4.25%, which has seen a year-on-year increase of 42.16% [4]. - The company has emphasized its strategic shift towards international markets, indicating that overseas business will be a crucial growth driver for sustainable development [4][5]. Business Model Transformation - The company is transitioning its business model from a direct sales approach focused on large clients to a channel sales model that emphasizes retail and engineering partnerships, which now account for 84.06% of revenue [7]. - This shift is expected to improve cash flow and reduce accounts receivable issues, as the company moves away from long-term contract work [7]. Financial Stability - The company maintains a low debt ratio and a robust financial structure, indicating strong repayment capacity and room for financial leverage [7]. - The company has ample bank credit lines and low financing rates, allowing for increased liquidity if necessary [7].

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.569 billion CNY, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 564 million CNY, showing a decline compared to the same period last year [2] - The second quarter showed significant improvement, with a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline in revenue compared to the first quarter [2][3] - Overseas revenue grew by over 40% in the first half of 2025, alleviating some pressure on overall revenue [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the second quarter was 26.71%, reflecting a 3% increase from the first quarter, driven by improved revenue scale and stable pricing [3] - The company’s retail business segment experienced growth, positively impacting the overall gross margin [3] Cash Flow and Operational Quality - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 70.18% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with the second quarter's cash flow exceeding the net profit for the period [4] - The company has successfully transitioned from a direct sales model to a retail and engineering channel model, with revenue from these channels reaching 11.406 billion CNY, accounting for 84.06% of total revenue [4] Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in sales and management expenses compared to the previous year [8] - Organizational restructuring and optimization have led to improved management efficiency and reduced personnel costs [8] New Revenue Streams - Other main revenue, including non-woven fabrics and new product categories, reached 1.138 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 46.97% [9] - The sand powder business achieved sales of 5.57 million tons, with revenue of 1.996 billion CNY, despite a slight decline in average price due to product mix changes [10] Strategic Acquisitions and International Expansion - The acquisition of Construmart in Chile is underway, aimed at leveraging local market channels to enhance competitiveness and profitability [11] - The company’s overseas business generated 576 million CNY in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 42.16%, indicating the effectiveness of its overseas strategy [12] Dividend Policy - The company plans to implement a mid-term cash dividend, reflecting confidence in its operational performance and commitment to shareholder returns [13][14] - The cash dividend will not impact the company’s operational funding needs, as the business model has shifted to reduce working capital requirements [14][15]

Group 1 - The article reflects on the volatility and challenges of the futures market over thirteen years, highlighting the struggles of many investors who enter and exit the market with varying degrees of success [2] - It emphasizes the psychological aspects of trading, noting that many investors fall into the trap of small profits and large losses, which ultimately erodes their capital [3] - The narrative illustrates the importance of recognizing human weaknesses in trading behavior, such as overconfidence and the inability to accept losses [3] Group 2 - The article outlines survival strategies for trading, emphasizing the principles of light positions, following market trends, and implementing strict stop-loss measures [4] - It advises new traders to start cautiously, using a small percentage of their total capital to test the waters before committing larger amounts [4] - The importance of focusing on familiar markets and avoiding overexposure to any single position is highlighted as a key risk management strategy [4] Group 3 - The article advocates for a systematic approach to trading, where strategies are formalized and executed without emotional interference, allowing for more disciplined decision-making [5] - It warns against the common pitfalls of emotional trading, such as greed and fear, which can lead to significant losses [5] - The conclusion stresses that true success in the market comes from understanding its inherent risks and maintaining a steady, patient approach rather than seeking quick profits [5]

Variety Views - On June 3, A-shares' three major indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43% to 3361.98, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.16% to 10057.17, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.48% to 2002.70. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1141.4 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan more than last Friday [1] - The CSI 300 index strengthened on June 3, closing at 3852.01, up 11.78 [1] - On June 3, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1300.3 yuan, down 14.3 [2] - On June 3, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 721.3 yuan, down 22.1 [3] - Affected by the earlier rainy season improving sugar production prospects in major Asian producers, US sugar fell on Monday. Constrained by the decline in US sugar and the reduction in spot quotes, the short sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which fell on Tuesday and slightly at night [4] - Due to the technical influence on the short - term decline, Shanghai rubber consolidated on Tuesday and continued to fluctuate at night [5] - On June 3, palm oil continued its recent rebound, hitting a new high in recent weeks before pulling back. The main contract P2509 closed with an upper - shadow阳线, closing at 8196, up 1.69% [5] - As of May 30, 2025 (week 22), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 364,000 tons, up 25,300 tons from last week, a 7.47% increase; down 19,500 tons from 383,500 tons last year, a 5.08% decrease. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the previous month [7] - On June 3, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to the boost from crude oil prices. As of June 1, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 67%, lower than the expected 68%; the planting rate was 84%, lower than the expected 86%. In the domestic market, on June 3, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract M2509 closed at 2935 yuan/ton, a 1.11% decrease [7] - On June 3, the live hog futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 13,605 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decrease [8] - On June 3, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.14%, closing at 695.5 yuan [8] - On June 3, the asphalt 2507 main contract rose 1.22%, closing at 3482 yuan [8] - Copper prices maintained a relatively strong and volatile pattern. There were new disruptions in the mining end, and domestic smelting output continued to exceed expectations, but raw material supply was expected to decline. In June, consumption was expected to be slightly weaker, and the domestic market was expected to be in a tight balance or a slight inventory build - up [9] - The log 2507 contract opened at 765 on Monday, with a low of 759.5, a high of 770, and closed at 765, with an increase of 596 positions. The spot price was supported at 750 - 770 and faced resistance at 790 [9] - On June 3, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs were 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged [9] - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,240 yuan/ton. As of June 5, the minimum basis quote at Xinjiang's designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 40 lots [11] - On June 3, rb2510 closed at 2928 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3052 yuan/ton. Market transactions remained at a low level, and prices were generally stable with some weakening [11] - On June 3, ao2509 closed at 2998 yuan/ton. The impact of Guinea's revocation of some mining licenses has basically ended, and the future supply is expected to be in surplus [12] - On June 3, al2507 closed at 19,860 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China market increased slightly after the holiday, and the market supply became more abundant [12] Influencing Factors - For coke, the loss of coke enterprises slightly expanded, and the daily output decreased. The demand also decreased, and the second - round price cut in the spot market was implemented [4] - For coking coal, some mines in major production areas limited production, but the overall supply remained stable and abundant. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the inventory in the supervision area increased [4] - The ANRPC April 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in April would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and consumption would decrease by 1.3% to 1.248 million tons. The market decline was due to increased tapping and weak tire demand [5] - For soybean meal, as the arrival of soybeans increased, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal rose. The short - term demand from feed enterprises was limited [7] - For live hogs, consumer demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase in June, but the early - month slaughter decreased slightly [8] - For iron ore, in June, the supply was expected to increase as overseas mines rushed for quarterly output, while the terminal demand entered the off - season, and the pig iron output declined for three consecutive weeks [8] - For asphalt, the planned production in June increased significantly, but the demand was suppressed by the rainy season and was supported by the crude oil cost [8] - For copper, there were disruptions in the mining end, and domestic consumption was expected to be slightly weaker in June. The social inventory increased slightly during the holiday [9] - For logs, the port inventory increased slightly, the overall demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [9] - For cotton, the US cotton sowing progress was slow, and the domestic cotton inventory decreased slightly [11] - For steel, market transactions were weak, and demand was expected to decline seasonally with the influence of the rainy season [11] - For alumina, the impact of mining license revocation ended, and the复产 of suspended enterprises led to concerns about future supply surplus [12] - For aluminum, the inventory in the East China market increased after the holiday, and the market supply became more abundant [12]