品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五 （12 月 19 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.36%，收报 3890.45 点； 深证成指涨 0.66%，收报 13140.21 点；创业板指涨 0.49%，收报 3122.24 点。沪深两市成交额 17259 亿，较昨日 放量 704 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 19 日震荡整理。收盘 4568.18，环比上涨 15.38。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 19 日焦炭加权指数强势依旧，收盘价 1702.6，环比上涨 34.0。 12 月 19 日焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1089.9 元，环比下跌 0.9。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 星期一 焦炭：二轮降价落地，且有三轮提降预期。因入炉煤成本下行，即期焦化利润修复。库存，终端主动控制原 料采购节奏，上游矿山库存有小幅累库。中央经济工作会议释放多个重要信息，深入整治"内卷式"竞争、着力 稳定房地产市场。需求，终端钢厂利润承压，铁水持续减产。 焦炭现货，日照港准一焦炭（湿熄）仓单 1591 元/ ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】周一（12 月 8 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.54%，收报 3924.08 点；深证成指涨 1.39%， 收报 13329.99 点；创业板指涨 2.60%，收报 3190.27 点。沪深两市成交额达到 20366 亿，较上一交易日大幅放 量 3109 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 8 日强势依旧。收盘 4621.76，环比上涨 37.22。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 8 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1600.7，环比下跌 85.3。 12 月 8 日，焦煤加权指数弱势运行，收盘价 1062.9 元，环比下跌 70.2。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：首轮提降落地。本期铁水产量 232.30，-2.38 万吨，焦炭库存中性偏弱。利润方面，本期全国 30 家 独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 30 元/吨。 【胶】周一，沪胶波动不大震荡整理品种涨跌互现。夜盘，因空头打压沪胶震荡小幅走低。美国轮胎制造商 协会（USTMA）于 2025 年 11 月对当年美国轮胎出货 ...

Overall Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, A-share market slumped with Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% to 3834.89, Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41% to 12538.07, and ChiNext Index down 4.02% to 2920.08. The trading volume reached 1965.7 billion yuan, up 257.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index closed at 4453.61 on November 21, down 111.34 from the previous day [2] Commodity Futures Coking Coal and Coke - On November 21, the weighted index of coke closed at 1658.8, down 17.2 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal closed at 1136.2 yuan, down 10.8 from the previous day [2][3] - Coke supply shrank due to low industry profits and weak production motivation of coke enterprises. Demand from steel mills was limited as terminal demand weakened. Coking coal supply slowly recovered with some mines resuming production, and Mongolian coal imports increased. However, coke enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm declined [4] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures and options net short positions increased by 3,861 to 142,589 as of the week ending October 7. Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2601 declined due to short - selling pressure on the night of November 21 [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures declined on the night of November 21 due to short - selling pressure. As of November 21, natural rubber inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 79,463 tons to 78,675 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 68,871 tons to 39,600 tons. 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 302 tons to 53,827 tons, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 504 tons to 50,199 tons [4] Live Pigs - On November 21, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,350 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. In October, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% to 39.9 million, still above the reasonable target. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with supply pressure from large - scale farms' concentrated sales and some support from increased consumption demand in winter [4][5] Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose 0.31% on November 21. US soybean exports faced competition from Brazil. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3012 yuan/ton on November 21, down 0.17%. Short - term supply was sufficient, and the market was under pressure due to abundant imports [5] Copper - The Shanghai copper market showed weak oscillation with decreasing positions. In the short term, it remained in high - level oscillation. In the long term, new demand from new energy and AI and rigid shortage of global copper ore supply may push up the copper price, but short - term fluctuations due to policy changes and capital withdrawal should be watched out for [5] Logs - On November 21, the log 2601 contract opened at 772, with a low of 768, a high of 774.5, and closed at 768.5, with an increase of 896 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter. In October, log imports decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6] Iron Ore - On November 21, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down 0.32% at 785.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments increased slightly, arrivals decreased, and port and steel mill inventories declined. Iron ore prices were in an oscillating trend in the short term [6] Asphalt - On November 21, the asphalt 2601 main contract closed down 0.46% at 3009 yuan. Asphalt supply continued to decline, inventory decreased, and shipments increased slightly. However, demand was limited by cold and snowy weather, and prices showed an oscillating trend in the short term [6] Cotton - On the night of November 21, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,595 yuan/ton, with inventory decreasing by 1259 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 21 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Steel - The steel market was suppressed by the low probability of Fed rate - cut in December and the lack of domestic policies. The economic work conference in December was a key event. The market was in a supply - demand re - balancing stage, with limited downward and upward space. Steel mills' winter storage demand would emerge in late December, but the scale might be smaller than last year [7] Alumina - Alumina raw material supply may gradually become sufficient as bauxite shipments from Guinea increased after the rainy season. Supply was relatively abundant, while demand was stable but weaker compared to supply [7] Aluminum - The cost of raw material alumina decreased, and smelters' profits were good, leading to high production enthusiasm. Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply would remain high. Demand was gradually entering the off - season, but spot market transactions improved slightly as aluminum prices declined [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On October 29, 2025, the A - share market had a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 4000 points, and trading volume approaching 2.3 trillion yuan [1]. - Multiple commodity futures showed different trends. For example, the weighted indices of coke and coking coal strengthened, while palm oil hit a three - month low [2][3][6]. - The supply and demand situation of various commodities is complex. For instance, the sugar market is affected by increased supply and reduced demand expectations, and the pig market has a supply - surplus situation that is difficult to reverse in the short term [4][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 29, the major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 4016.33, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95% to 13691.38, the ChiNext Index rose 2.93% to 3324.27, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 8.41% to 1573.71. The trading volume of the three markets was nearly 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4747.84, up 55.87 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 29, the weighted index of coke rebounded strongly, closing at 1828.6, up 36.7; the weighted index of coking coal trended stronger in shock, closing at 1318.5 yuan, up 47.0 [2][3]. - For coke, the second - round price increase was implemented. The iron - making output decreased seasonally, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants was - 41 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the "West - to - East Coal Transport" artery, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, completed its autumn maintenance. The mine - end operating rate dropped due to safety inspections, the inventory was neutral, and the operating rate of coal - washing plants increased for two consecutive weeks [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Six different institutions expect Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season to reach 4,228 million tons, higher than 4,052 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The US sugar futures fell on Tuesday due to concerns about increased supply and reduced demand. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated and closed slightly higher on Wednesday [4]. Rubber - Affected by heavy rainfall in central Vietnam, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia have been rising slightly in shock recently. Supported by factors such as strong EU passenger car sales data in September and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the Shanghai rubber futures rose significantly on Wednesday [5]. Palm Oil - On October 29, palm oil broke through the lower edge of the range, hitting a three - month low. The main contract P2601 closed at 8842, down 1.29% from the previous day. The benchmark palm oil contract for January delivery on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 65 ringgit, or 1.51%, at 4,252 ringgit per metric ton [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 29, CBOT soybean futures oscillated. The market expects Sino - US soybean trade to resume. Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 36% as of October 23, and the expected output is 1.767 billion tons. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 105.2 million tons, up 13.48% from the previous week [7]. Live Pigs - On October 29, the LH2601 main contract closed at 12185 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The widening of the price difference between standard and fat pigs attracted second - round fattening, providing short - term support for pig prices. However, the oversupply situation in October has not changed fundamentally, and the rebound space of pig prices is limited [8]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper trended stronger in shock. Supported by China's "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, the easing of Sino - US trade tariffs, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk appetite increased. Fundamentally, Indonesia's mine accident and the shutdown of overseas mines led to a tight supply - demand balance, and the ICSG predicted a shortage of refined copper in 2026 [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13650 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 11 lots compared to the previous day. The prices of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang were in the ranges of 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg and 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg respectively, and the cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang was faster than in previous years [9]. Iron Ore - On October 29, the 2601 main contract of iron ore rose 1.96% to 804.5 yuan. The shipment volume of iron ore increased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume decreased significantly for two consecutive periods. The iron - making output continued to decline, but the positive macro - atmosphere at home and abroad boosted market sentiment, and the iron ore price oscillated in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On October 29, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 0.21% to 3274 yuan. The asphalt supply decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. As the temperature dropped, the demand entered the end of the peak season, and the asphalt price followed the cost - end crude oil price and oscillated in the short term [10][11]. Logs - On October 29, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 786.5, with a minimum of 786, a maximum of 790.5, and closed at 787, with an increase of 41 lots in positions. The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the market is gradually reducing inventory [11].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On October 14, 2025, most futures varieties showed different trends. A - share stock indexes generally declined, while some futures like coke and焦煤 showed slight increases, and others like sugar, rubber, and palm oil were affected by various factors and showed downward or fluctuating trends [1][2][3][4]. Industry Analysis Stock Index Futures - On October 14, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.62% to 3865.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 3.99% to 2955.98 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2576.2 billion yuan, an increase of 221.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4539.06, a decline of 54.91 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 14, the coke weighted index showed a weak shock, closing at 1665.5, a rise of 4.8. The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1167.5 yuan, a rise of 6.5. Coke's coking profit is near the break - even point, and the demand increment is insufficient. Coking coal's supply recovery is slow, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the prospect of global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season and other factors, the US sugar fell on Monday. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell sharply on Tuesday and then had a slight rebound at night. As of the end of September, Guangxi's sugar sales volume increased, but the sales rate decreased, and the industrial inventory increased [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade relations, crude oil prices, and Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday and had a slight decline at night. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased compared with the same period in 2024 [6]. Palm Oil - On October 14, palm oil futures prices declined slightly. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November while keeping the export tariff unchanged [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 14, CBOT soybean futures were weakly volatile. Domestically, soybean meal futures were also weakly volatile. High imports of soybeans and the expected early listing of Brazilian soybeans help ease concerns about the supply shortage [8]. Live Pigs - On October 14, live pig futures rebounded from a low level. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but it is expected to stabilize and rebound after November, with the rebound height limited by over - capacity expectations [9]. Shanghai Copper - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and overseas copper mine supply disturbances support copper prices, but Sino - US trade disputes and weak domestic demand lead to copper price fluctuations. The inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand is lower than expected [9]. Iron Ore - On October 14, the iron ore 2601 contract declined. The supply is relatively loose, and there is an increasing pressure on steel mills to reduce production in the future, so the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 14, the asphalt 2511 contract declined. The production and shipment of asphalt decreased, and the demand is affected by weather and funds, so the price is in a volatile trend [10]. Logs - On October 14, log futures prices continued to decline. The spot price remained stable, and the import volume from January to September decreased year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a pattern of inventory reduction [12]. Cotton - On the night of October 14, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13240 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Sino - US trade war has a certain suppressing effect on the cotton market [12]. Steel - On October 14, steel futures prices showed a general downward trend. After the holiday, steel demand is average, the inventory reduction speed may be slow, and the cost support is insufficient, so the steel price may be weakly volatile in the short term [12]. Alumina - On October 14, alumina futures closed at 2805 yuan/ton. The spot market supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to continue to decline [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 14, Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20860 yuan/ton. The macro - situation is complex, and the supply is stable. The demand is improving, and the social inventory in the East China region has decreased [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Dongfang Yuhong reported significant growth in its other main revenue streams, which include products from new sectors such as non-woven fabrics, Hongshi emulsion, Jin Si Nan membrane, pipe industry, and adhesives [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company's other main revenue reached 1.138 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.97% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in "other main revenue" for the first half of 2025, indicating strong growth in new product categories and market segments [1] Group 1 - The "other main revenue" for the first half of 2025 reached 1.138 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.97% [1] - The revenue growth is attributed to new product lines including non-woven fabrics, Hongshi emulsion, silk nanomembrane, pipe industry products, and adhesives [1] - The company emphasized the resilience of growth in new categories and market segments, supported by brand and channel synergies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a significant decline in net profit, the company continues to propose a high dividend plan for the first half of 2025, raising questions about its financial strategy and sustainability [2][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.569 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 564 million yuan, down 40.16% [3]. - The decline in net profit has been attributed to lower-than-expected market demand, with a consistent downward trend observed since 2024 [3]. - The company's main business segments, including waterproof materials and mortar powder, experienced revenue declines, while other main income sources grew by 46.97% to 1.138 billion yuan [3]. Dividend Plan - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.25 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling approximately 2.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [2][6]. - This follows a previous cash dividend of 1.462 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, and a revised plan from an initially proposed 4.4 billion yuan for the 2024 fiscal year [6]. Geographic Revenue Distribution - Over 95% of the company's revenue still comes from domestic operations, with international revenue accounting for 4.25%, which has seen a year-on-year increase of 42.16% [4]. - The company has emphasized its strategic shift towards international markets, indicating that overseas business will be a crucial growth driver for sustainable development [4][5]. Business Model Transformation - The company is transitioning its business model from a direct sales approach focused on large clients to a channel sales model that emphasizes retail and engineering partnerships, which now account for 84.06% of revenue [7]. - This shift is expected to improve cash flow and reduce accounts receivable issues, as the company moves away from long-term contract work [7]. Financial Stability - The company maintains a low debt ratio and a robust financial structure, indicating strong repayment capacity and room for financial leverage [7]. - The company has ample bank credit lines and low financing rates, allowing for increased liquidity if necessary [7].

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.569 billion CNY, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 564 million CNY, showing a decline compared to the same period last year [2] - The second quarter showed significant improvement, with a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline in revenue compared to the first quarter [2][3] - Overseas revenue grew by over 40% in the first half of 2025, alleviating some pressure on overall revenue [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the second quarter was 26.71%, reflecting a 3% increase from the first quarter, driven by improved revenue scale and stable pricing [3] - The company’s retail business segment experienced growth, positively impacting the overall gross margin [3] Cash Flow and Operational Quality - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 70.18% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with the second quarter's cash flow exceeding the net profit for the period [4] - The company has successfully transitioned from a direct sales model to a retail and engineering channel model, with revenue from these channels reaching 11.406 billion CNY, accounting for 84.06% of total revenue [4] Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in sales and management expenses compared to the previous year [8] - Organizational restructuring and optimization have led to improved management efficiency and reduced personnel costs [8] New Revenue Streams - Other main revenue, including non-woven fabrics and new product categories, reached 1.138 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 46.97% [9] - The sand powder business achieved sales of 5.57 million tons, with revenue of 1.996 billion CNY, despite a slight decline in average price due to product mix changes [10] Strategic Acquisitions and International Expansion - The acquisition of Construmart in Chile is underway, aimed at leveraging local market channels to enhance competitiveness and profitability [11] - The company’s overseas business generated 576 million CNY in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 42.16%, indicating the effectiveness of its overseas strategy [12] Dividend Policy - The company plans to implement a mid-term cash dividend, reflecting confidence in its operational performance and commitment to shareholder returns [13][14] - The cash dividend will not impact the company’s operational funding needs, as the business model has shifted to reduce working capital requirements [14][15]

Group 1 - The article reflects on the volatility and challenges of the futures market over thirteen years, highlighting the struggles of many investors who enter and exit the market with varying degrees of success [2] - It emphasizes the psychological aspects of trading, noting that many investors fall into the trap of small profits and large losses, which ultimately erodes their capital [3] - The narrative illustrates the importance of recognizing human weaknesses in trading behavior, such as overconfidence and the inability to accept losses [3] Group 2 - The article outlines survival strategies for trading, emphasizing the principles of light positions, following market trends, and implementing strict stop-loss measures [4] - It advises new traders to start cautiously, using a small percentage of their total capital to test the waters before committing larger amounts [4] - The importance of focusing on familiar markets and avoiding overexposure to any single position is highlighted as a key risk management strategy [4] Group 3 - The article advocates for a systematic approach to trading, where strategies are formalized and executed without emotional interference, allowing for more disciplined decision-making [5] - It warns against the common pitfalls of emotional trading, such as greed and fear, which can lead to significant losses [5] - The conclusion stresses that true success in the market comes from understanding its inherent risks and maintaining a steady, patient approach rather than seeking quick profits [5]