芝商所本周第二次提高贵金属期货保证金要求，试图为近期暴涨的贵金属市场降温。 周三现货白银应声下跌，跌破72美元关口，日内跌幅超过5%。其他贵金属也纷纷下跌，现货钯金跌超7%，报1497.75美元/盎司。现货铂金跌超7%，报 2038.55美元/盎司。 芝商所在12月30日的公告中表示，黄金、白银、铂金和钯金合约的保证金将在周三收盘后上调，这项决定基于"市场波动性以确保足够的抵押品覆盖率"的评 估。 这是该交易所一周内第二次采取此类措施，前一次上调已于周一生效。 此次保证金上调意味着交易员在交易贵金属期货时需要提供更多抵押品，将直接限制市场杠杆使用。这一监管动作引发投资者警惕，市场开始担忧此轮贵金属 涨势能否持续。 历史案例已为当前市场敲响警钟：2011年白银崩盘与1980年亨特兄弟（Hunt Brothers）逼仓失败表明，当交易所开始出手限制杠杆时，往往意味着狂欢接近尾 声， 是市场逆转的前兆。 交易所密集出手控风险 市场正在将贵金属作为对冲"AI泡沫"和货币贬值的工具。 然而，历史案例已为当前市场敲响警钟。 2008年金融危机后，美联储实施零利率和量化宽松（QE），导致实际收益率跌入负值。白银作为高贝塔值 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline in the short - term due to rapid capital outflows, and the market sentiment needs time to recover. It is recommended to wait and see. The market may focus on US economic data and Fed policies. Long - term investors can wait for the price to pull back to a reasonable level and the volatility to be relatively low before making allocations [1]. - Silver prices are expected to rise in the long term, and it is recommended to close positions or lock positions before the New Year's Day holiday and wait for the long - term allocation window [1]. - Platinum and palladium are fundamentally strong in terms of macro and supply - demand, and their prices are still undervalued compared to gold. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, the domestic market has relatively high risks, and it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize after the Spring Festival before making allocations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1007.18 yuan/gram on December 29, down 9.12 yuan (-0.90%) from December 26 [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 18205 yuan/kilogram on December 29, down 114 yuan (-0.62%) from December 26 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 634.35 yuan/gram on December 29, down 70.95 yuan (-10.06%) from December 26; PD2606 contract closed at 494.10 yuan/gram, down 21.55 yuan (-4.18%) [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4350.20 on December 29, down 211.80 (-4.64%) from December 26 [1]. - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at 71.64 on December 29, down 8.04 (-10.08%) from December 26 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at 2138.90 dollars/ounce on December 29, down 375.00 (-14.92%) from December 26 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at 1695.50 on December 29, down 365.00 (-17.71%) from December 26 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4331.96 on December 29, down 200.55 (-4.42%) from December 26 [1]. - London silver was at 72.13 dollars/ounce on December 29, down 7.20 (-9.08%) from December 26 [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2104.07 dollars/ounce on December 29, down 346.84 (-14.15%) from December 26 [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1630.47 on December 29, down 292.93 (-15.23%) from December 26 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1004.94 yuan/gram on December 29, down 3.86 (-0.38%) from December 26 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18797 yuan/kilogram on December 29, up 328 (1.78%) from December 26 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 637 yuan/gram on December 29, down 25 (-3.78%) from December 26 [1]. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力: The current basis is -2.24, up 5.26 from the previous value, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 65.00% [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力: The current basis is 595, up 442 from the previous value, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 99.50% [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold: The current basis is -18.24, up 11.25 from the previous value, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 44.20% [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver: The current basis is 0.49, up 0.83 from the previous value, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 96.60% [1]. Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio is 60.72, up 3.41 (6.05%) from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio is 55.32, down 0.15 (-0.28%) from the previous value [1]. - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio is 1.26, up 0.04 (3.40%) from the previous value [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio is 1.28, down 0.08 (-6.14%) from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.12%, down 0.02 (-0.5%) from the previous value [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.45%, down 0.01 (-0.3%) from the previous value [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.90%, down 0.01 (-0.5%) from the previous value [1]. - US dollar index is 98.00, down 0.04 (-0.04%) from the previous value [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9980, down 0.0062 (-0.09%) from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 97704, up 12 (0.01%) from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory is 796739 kilograms, down 22692 (-2.77%) from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory is 36223374, up 32119 (0.09%) from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory is 449127596, down 600134 (-0.13%) from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warrants are 19361515, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver registered warrants are 127624307, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF position is 1072, up 0.86 (0.08%) from the previous value []. - SLV silver ETF position is 16306, down 84.60 (-0.52%) from the previous value [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - At the end of the year, driven by multiple factors, some investors choose to pre - "rush" to allocate precious metals, with continuous increase in ETF holdings and rising derivatives positions. In the absence of clear negative factors, the short - term market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. [1] - In the short term, as the COMEX silver approaches the last trading day, the physical delivery demand decreases, and the domestic inventory increase may ease the bullish sentiment. During the sharp rise of silver, attention should be paid to changes in the number of open contracts, warehouse receipt inventory, and regulatory risk - control measures to prevent the risk of speculative bulls taking profits at high levels. However, high volatility continues to provide upward momentum for prices. It is recommended to continue holding long positions, reduce positions or lock positions on rallies before the Spring Festival. [1] - Platinum and palladium are strong in terms of macro - and supply - demand fundamentals, and their prices are still undervalued compared to gold. Driven by funds, value reshaping is expected, and they are likely to continue to oscillate upward in the medium - to long - term. In the short term, in the domestic market, since the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures are in the early listing stage, the overall position liquidity needs improvement, and the domestic price shows a premium compared to the overseas market. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still face short - term correction risks, and palladium may experience a significant correction due to its weak fundamentals. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram on December 24, up 0.04% from the previous day [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 17609 yuan/kilogram on December 24, up 7.10% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 657.65 yuan/gram on December 24, up 6.08% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 578.45 yuan/gram on December 24, up 8.62% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4505.40 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 71.88 dollars/ounce on December 24, up 0.37% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2272.90 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 2.03% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1821.00 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 7.28% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4479.39 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 0.12% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 71.81 dollars/ounce on December 24, up 0.56% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2221.83 dollars/ounce on December 24, up 0.63% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1683.58 dollars/ounce on December 24, down 8.35% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1007.22 yuan/gram on December 24, up 0.08% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 17714 yuan/kilogram on December 24, up 7.88% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 607 yuan/gram on December 24, up 8.08% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was -7.46, up 0.33 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 1.20% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 105, up 126 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.50% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was -26.01, up 4.11 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 30.20% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was -0.06, up 0.14 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 70.10% [1]. Price Ratios - The price ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 62.68 on December 24, down 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - The price ratio of SHFE gold/silver was 57.62 on December 24, down 6.59% from the previous day [1]. - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.25 on December 24, up 5.66% from the previous day [1]. - The price ratio of GZFE platinum/palladium was 1.14 on December 24, down 2.34% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15% on December 24, down 0.7% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47% on December 24, down 0.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91% on December 24, down 1.5% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 97.95 on December 24, up 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.0076 on December 24, down 0.17% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 93711 kilograms on December 24, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The SHFE silver inventory was 881949 kilograms on December 24, down 1.97% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36159361 ounces on December 24, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 451352686 ounces on December 24, up 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19321904 ounces on December 24, up 0.60% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127214282 ounces on December 24, down 1.09% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1068 tons on December 24, up 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16447 tons on December 24, down 0.34% from the previous day [1].