Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing significant differentiation, with basic metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc showing notable declines, while small metals such as tungsten and rare earths are performing strongly, indicating a distinct market trend [2][3]. Market Performance - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs, with black tungsten concentrate (≥65%, domestic) priced at 696,700.00 CNY/ton on February 11, 2026, up approximately 53.7% from 453,200.00 CNY/ton on December 31, 2025 [3]. - Ammonium paratungstate (88.5%, domestic) increased from 668,500.00 CNY/ton to 1,013,500.00 CNY/ton, a rise of 51.61% [3]. - Rare earth prices have also surged, with domestic praseodymium-neodymium oxide (≥99%, Nd2O3 75%) reaching 860,000.00 CNY/ton, a 39.3% increase from 617,500.00 CNY/ton [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of small metals is characterized by strong rigidity and superior demand structure, supported by policies such as export controls and environmental restrictions, which enhance their strategic attributes [2][5]. - The global mining sector is in a weak supply cycle with limited new capacity, while demand is bolstered by the green energy transition and advancements in production technology [5][9]. Investment Outlook - Companies in the small metal sector are expected to report positive earnings in 2025, with rare earths, antimony, and tungsten being particularly favored due to tight supply and emerging demand [2][7]. - Notable earnings forecasts include Northern Rare Earth's projected net profit of 2.176 to 2.356 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 116.67% to 134.60% [7]. Market Trends - The rare earth sector is anticipated to improve significantly in 2025, driven by sustained high prices, with neodymium oxide prices expected to rise by 58.29% [7][8]. - Analysts predict that tungsten prices will maintain a high level and show a strong upward trend due to ongoing supply-demand tightness and strategic importance [10]. Internal Market Differentiation - Despite the overall positive outlook for small metals, some segments, such as magnesium, are underperforming, with magnesium ingot prices showing only a 4.08% increase [6]. - Industry leaders are adjusting asset prices to alleviate operational pressures, reflecting the current challenges faced in the magnesium sector [6].

Core Insights - The overall magnesium price increased in January 2026, with magnesium ingot (1) averaging 18,127.50 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.50% and a month-on-month increase of 5.24% [1] - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 0.75, primarily due to a significant increase in aluminum prices driven by demand from emerging industries [2] - The magnesium alloy sector showed resilience with a 4.51% year-on-year increase in exports, despite an overall decline in magnesium product exports [2] Price Tracking - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum (A00) was 24,085.50 yuan/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month [1] - The magnesium market supply was relatively balanced, with stable prices supported by supply and steady demand from essential needs, leading to a positive market outlook [1] Industry Dynamics - The Shenzhou 20 return capsule utilized a magnesium-lithium alloy operation platform, significantly reducing weight and achieving new breakthroughs in aerospace applications [3] - A strategic cooperation was established between Bole Intelligent and Anhui Liheng for the supply of 37 large magnesium alloy semi-solid injection molding machines, indicating rapid expansion into large integrated structural components for electric vehicles [3] - Three key magnesium industry standards will be implemented starting February 1, 2026, marking a new phase in energy conservation and environmental governance in the magnesium smelting industry [4] Important Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry forecasted a net loss of 10-20 million yuan for 2025, primarily due to declining magnesium prices impacting profitability [6] - Yian Technology projected a net loss of 13-18 million yuan for 2025, attributed to increased investments in new sectors and currency appreciation affecting export profits [6] Investment Recommendations - Companies with full industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry are recommended for attention [7] - Companies with high magnesium alloy business ratios and strong elasticity like Xingyuan Zhuomei are also highlighted [7] - Equipment manufacturers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in component enterprises, such as Yizhiming, are suggested for consideration [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the magnesium alloy sector, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio has reached a historical low, highlighting the economic advantages of magnesium alloys as their applications continue to expand across multiple industries [2]. - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum was 24,085.50 CNY/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month, while magnesium ingot averaged 18,127.50 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.50% year-on-year increase and a 5.24% month-on-month increase [2]. - The magnesium market is experiencing a balanced supply, with stable prices supported by steady demand, leading to a positive market outlook [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, China's total magnesium product exports reached 447,600 tons, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, with export value dropping 17.15% to approximately 1.069 billion USD [3]. - Magnesium ingot exports fell by 5.53% to 251,300 tons, while magnesium alloy exports grew by 4.51% to 99,600 tons, indicating a structural growth in high-value-added segments [3]. Industry Dynamics - The implementation of three key magnesium industry standards on February 1, 2026, marks a new phase in energy conservation and environmental governance within the magnesium smelting industry [6]. - The Shenzhou 20 return capsule utilized a magnesium-lithium alloy operation platform, showcasing advancements in aerospace applications with significant weight reduction [5]. Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry forecasts a net loss of 10-20 million CNY for 2025, primarily due to declining magnesium prices impacting profitability [7]. - Yian Technology anticipates a net loss of 13-18 million CNY, attributed to increased investments in new alloy sectors and currency fluctuations affecting export profits [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with comprehensive industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry, and those with high magnesium alloy business ratios like Xingyuan Zhuomei, as well as equipment suppliers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in component manufacturing [8].

Core Viewpoint - Baowu Magnesium Industry reported a decline in the export of various magnesium products in 2025, according to customs statistics, indicating potential challenges in the industry [1] Group 1: Export Data - In 2025, China exported a total of 447,600 tons of various magnesium products, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.65% [1] - The export of magnesium ingots reached 251,300 tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.53% [1] - The export of magnesium alloys amounted to 99,600 tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 4.51% [1] - The export of magnesium powder was 73,600 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.79% [1]

Production and Export Data - In 2025, China's total magnesium production reached approximately 1.0421 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.59% [1] - Production by region: - Shaanxi: 685,200 tons (+7.57%) - Shanxi: 187,600 tons (-1.37%) - Inner Mongolia: 37,800 tons (-1.56%) - Xinjiang: 58,900 tons (+11.55%) - Other regions: 72,700 tons [1] - Total magnesium product exports in 2025 were 447,600 tons, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year [2] - Magnesium ingots: 251,300 tons (-5.53%) - Magnesium alloys: 99,600 tons (+4.51%) - Magnesium powder: 73,600 tons (-10.79%) [2] Market Trends and Demand - The global aluminum price has been steadily rising, while magnesium alloy prices remain low, enhancing their cost-effectiveness [3] - Since October, magnesium alloy sales have increased by approximately 10%, reaching a historical high, driven by the demand from the electric vehicle sector [3] - The usage of magnesium in electric two-wheelers is expected to continue rising during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] Technological Advantages - The company has developed mature process control solutions for semi-solid magnesium alloy processing, particularly for thin-walled components [4] - Unique temperature control module designs and differentiated temperature management in key areas effectively address casting defects [4] Comprehensive Design Solutions - The company provides a full suite of design solutions for lightweight automotive components, adapting materials based on performance requirements: magnesium alloys for internal structures, aluminum for high-strength needs, and steel for load-bearing parts [4] - This approach promotes collaboration across the group to meet the lightweight demands of the automotive industry [4] Compliance and Communication - The company ensured accurate and timely information disclosure during investor communications, adhering to regulatory requirements [5]

Core Viewpoint - The magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi has experienced an overall price increase in early January, with a rise from 15,800 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, marking a 5.38% increase, although the price trend shows signs of fluctuation and adjustment due to cost, demand, and inventory factors [3]. Cost Support Effect - At the beginning of the year, magnesium prices fell to the critical cost point for some magnesium producers, leading to losses for certain companies. However, the stabilization of prices for key raw materials like ferrosilicon and coal has alleviated cost pressures for magnesium producers, providing support for price increases [4]. Demand Surge - The demand for magnesium alloys is on a continuous upward trend, with an expected increase of 7,000 tons in production by December 2025. Major companies are experiencing full order books, driven by the automotive lightweighting policies that enhance the application of magnesium alloys in vehicles and electric two-wheelers. However, traders remain cautious, with limited purchasing activity focused on essential needs, leading to a slight price correction mid-month [5]. Inventory Dynamics - Previously, inventory levels were low, and some magnesium producers halted production due to operational losses, significantly reducing the available market supply. The inventory structure has improved, particularly with large manufacturers in regions like Fugu and Shenmu concentrating their stock, which has supported magnesium prices [6]. Market Sentiment Shift - Following a rapid price increase, a bearish sentiment has developed in the market, with end-users adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach. The selling behavior of intermediaries has notably lowered transaction prices [7]. Comprehensive Analysis - Magnesium prices are expected to continue a fluctuating downward trend, with potential for further declines. This is primarily due to increasing inventory pressure ahead of the Spring Festival, stagnant downstream demand, and increased selling by manufacturers to alleviate financial pressures [9].

Core Viewpoint - The magnesium alloy is increasingly being applied in high-end fields such as humanoid robot joints and aerospace components, with several listed companies prioritizing these projects for future development [1] Industry Developments - Companies like Yian Technology and Xusheng Group have begun small-scale production of magnesium alloys for advanced applications [1] - Baowu Magnesium Industry, Yian Technology, and Xingyuan Zhuomag have started to receive bulk orders for lightweight magnesium alloy components in the electric vehicle sector [1] Market Trends - The application base for magnesium alloys in emerging fields like aerospace and humanoid robotics is currently low, but even a small percentage of replacement could lead to significant demand growth [1] - Due to supply contraction and driven by demand and policy expectations, magnesium ingot and alloy prices have seen a notable increase this month, with domestic magnesium alloy prices rising from 18,300 yuan/ton to 19,200 yuan/ton [1] - Magnesium ingot prices reached as high as 17,000 yuan/ton this month, with the highest increase exceeding 1,000 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Ministry of Commerce announced the initiation of a review process for anti-dumping measures on magnesium ingots imported from China, following a request from Brazilian company Rima Industrial S.A. [1] Group 1: Announcement Details - The review process is based on the decision from Resolution No. 253 of 2021, specifically concerning magnesium ingots classified under South Common Market tax codes 8104.11.00 and 8104.19.00 [1] - The analysis period for this review will cover from March 2021 to October 2025 [1] - The review process is expected to conclude within three months from its initiation [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For silicon manganese, the supply - demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, the cost side strongly supports the price, but new warehouse receipts in the short term will suppress the upward price limit. It is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5750, 6000] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the warehouse receipts are on a high - level downward trend but still high in absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5550, 5700] [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output has returned to the pre - parade level, and the operating rate has increased by 0.93%. Northern production areas are relatively stable, while some factories in southern Guangxi and Guizhou have resumed production. Yunnan's operating rate has remained at around 95% for three consecutive weeks, and the daily output is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. As of September 12, the national silicon manganese output was 214,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,295 tons; the operating rate was 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [4][8] - Demand: The molten iron output has returned to the pre - parade level, but the rebar output has decreased week - on - week, dragging down the demand for silicon manganese. As of September 12, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 122,314 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,354 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill is 5,800 yuan/ton [4][13] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 166,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,300 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 61,400, a decrease of 1,400 from last Friday. As of September 12, the total valid forecasts are 2,994, an increase of 1,995 from the previous day. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 322,200 tons, and the inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports have rebounded slightly this week. The total shipment volume of the three major countries is 949,300 tons, basically the same as the previous period. The arrival volume is 359,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,900 tons, with the reduction mainly from South Africa. The electricity price in Ningxia has increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, and the current comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is 0.4 yuan/kWh, while the electricity prices in other production areas remain stable [4] Market Price - As of September 12, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5,600 (+ 50) yuan/ton; in Guangxi, it is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 5,850 (+ 100) yuan/ton [7] River Steel Silicon Manganese Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon manganese tendering by River Steel is 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to August and 6,500 tons compared to the same period last year [16] Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, the national output and operating rate of silicon iron have decreased week - on - week. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have stable operations, while Shaanxi has slightly reduced production. As of September 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons; the operating rate is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [49][54] - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products is 19,737 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 339 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by a landmark steel mill is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity has increased by 317 tons compared to August. In terms of non - steel demand, the magnesium ingot output in August is basically the same as that in July, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 69,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 16,500, a decrease of 1,800 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 85,300 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from last Friday [49] Cost and Profit - Recently, the semi - coke market has been stable. The current small - material quotation in Fugu area is 640 - 690 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai have both increased. In the short term, the cost side of silicon iron has strong support [49] Market Price - The spot prices in the main production areas have increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [52] River Steel Silicon Iron Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by River Steel is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 3,151 tons, an increase of 317 tons compared to August and 650 tons compared to the same period last year [60]