汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 预计鸿蒙智行车型销量市场份额将有望继 续提升，产业链公司将持续受益 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 随着多款新车陆续上市、智能辅助驾驶国标落地在即，预计鸿蒙智行车型销量及市 占份额将有望进一步提升，建议关注鸿蒙智行整车及产业链相关公司。鸿蒙智行整 车相关标的：上汽集团(600104，买入)、江淮汽车(600418，未评级)、赛力斯 (601127，未评级)；零部件相关标的：银轮股份(002126，买入)、新泉股份 (603179，买入)、博俊科技(300926，买入)、精锻科技(300258，买入)、沪光股份 (605333，未评级)、华域汽车(600741，买入)、拓普集团(601689，买入)、星宇股 份(601799，买入)、华阳集团(002906，买入)等。 风险提示 鸿蒙智行车型销量低于预期、鸿蒙智行新车发布进度低于预期、市场竞争加剧风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 08 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxu ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expansion of the luxury car market in China, highlighting the significant rise of domestic brands like the AITO M9, which has captured over 20% market share in the high-end segment previously dominated by foreign brands [2][15]. Market Dynamics - Until 2022, the high-end luxury car market in China was stable, with traditional German brands (Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi) and others like Porsche and Land Rover holding over 90% market share. However, domestic brands have begun to penetrate this market due to the electric and intelligent transformation, achieving over 20% market share by May 2024 [2][15]. - The AITO M9 has been particularly successful, with over 240,000 units delivered since its launch at the end of 2023, making it the best-selling model in the 500,000 yuan and above segment, surpassing similar models like the BMW X5 and Mercedes GLC [2][19]. Consumer Insights - Luxury cars serve as a significant tool for consumers to express their identity. Younger, higher-income consumers show increasing recognition of emerging Chinese brands, influenced by their exposure to the internet and smart devices [4][12]. - The average age of high-net-worth individuals in China is 38, with a trend towards younger consumers who prioritize product performance and alignment with personal needs over traditional luxury branding [4][12]. Product Features and Innovations - The AITO M9 stands out due to its focus on space comfort, family entertainment, and intelligent design, appealing to practical consumer psychology [5][6]. - The vehicle's intelligent features, such as advanced driver assistance systems and smart cockpit technology, are key reasons for consumer preference for Chinese high-end electric vehicles [6][8]. - The M9 has achieved high user satisfaction, with a net promoter score (NPS) ranking first among all new energy vehicles, and it has maintained the highest resale value in the large SUV category for eight consecutive months [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - The success of the AITO M9 is attributed to its precise pricing strategy, filling a gap in the market for SUVs priced between 450,000 and 550,000 yuan, where competition was previously limited [9][15]. - The luxury car market is undergoing a transformation, with domestic brands beginning to capture significant market share in the 500,000 yuan and above segment, challenging the dominance of traditional luxury brands [15][18]. Trends and Future Outlook - The trend of consumers being less willing to pay a premium for foreign brands is growing, with leading intelligent features driving preference for Chinese high-end electric vehicles [19]. - The AITO M9 has consistently maintained sales of over 10,000 units per month, solidifying its position in the luxury SUV market despite the influx of new models [19].

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the AITO Authorized User Center in Jinan marks a significant step for Zhongsheng Group in the new energy vehicle sector, enhancing consumer experience with intelligent automotive services [3][10]. Company Summary - Zhongsheng Group is a leading automotive dealership group in China, committed to providing high-quality automotive services [9]. - The new AITO Authorized User Center integrates Zhongsheng's mature service system into the sales and after-sales processes of the AITO brand [9]. Industry Summary - The opening of the AITO Authorized User Center is expected to contribute to the promotion and development of new energy vehicles, injecting new vitality into the industry [10]. - The center aims to enhance the consumer experience by offering a range of high-quality new energy vehicle options and services [10].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Huawei and BAIC joint venture travel car, the Enjoy S9T, marks Huawei's entry into the growing travel car market in China, which is seen as a potential new blue ocean for mid-to-large travel vehicles [2][15]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Enjoy S9T was officially launched on September 16, with four versions available: two range-extended versions priced at 309,800 and 349,800 yuan, and two pure electric versions priced at 329,800 and 369,800 yuan [4]. - The vehicle features significant upgrades, including the Huawei ADS 4 intelligent driving system, the latest Huawei Tuling platform 3.0, air suspension, and a smart projection system [7]. - The Enjoy S9T has received over 40,000 pre-orders, indicating strong market interest [8]. Group 2: Market Context and Trends - The travel car market in China has been growing for four consecutive years, although it still represents less than 1% of total passenger car sales [15][16]. - The increasing popularity of travel cars is attributed to the rising demand from younger consumers, the release of price advantages, and technological innovations [17]. - Major players in the industry are beginning to focus on this emerging market, as evidenced by BYD's recent launch of the Seal 06 DM-i travel version [17]. Group 3: Strategic Partnership - BAIC has committed to investing 20 billion yuan over three years to develop the Enjoy brand in collaboration with Huawei, establishing a strategic partnership that includes dedicated teams and resources [12]. - The partnership aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem that enhances manufacturing, supply chain, and quality control for the Enjoy brand [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 195.81 CNY, indicating an expected upside of 34% [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 624 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 81% to 29.4 billion CNY [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in sales volume, reaching 130,000 vehicles, up 7% year-on-year and 90% quarter-on-quarter, driven primarily by the new model, the Wanjie M8 [8]. - The Wanjie brand has established itself as a leading high-end SUV brand, with the Wanjie M8 becoming a best-selling model in its price range [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025E, total revenue is projected to be 182.17 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.5% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 9.25 billion CNY in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 55.5% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 5.66 CNY for 2025E, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 [4]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company anticipates sales volumes of 560,000, 790,000, and 910,000 vehicles for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 42%, and 15% respectively [8]. - The recent IPO in Hong Kong is expected to accelerate the company's international expansion efforts, enhancing its growth potential in overseas markets [8].

Group 1: A-Share Market Overview - A-share earnings show marginal decline, while revenue slightly increases [4] - Financial leverage positively drives performance, but profitability and operational efficiency are under pressure [4] - Inventory cycle stabilizes at the bottom, with low capacity utilization and improving expansion indicators [4] - Overall cash flow is recovering, with operational improvements, declining investments, and rising financing [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The top 100 real estate companies saw a month-on-month decline in sales, continuing the market adjustment trend [17] - The automotive sector shows mixed results, with Sairus achieving high growth while BYD faces pressure [19][20] - The banking sector, represented by Everbright Bank, shows active credit issuance and improving bad debt generation [22] - The construction and decoration industry has experienced a significant historical review, indicating policy foundations and thematic renewals [13] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the food and beverage sector, beer sales are stable while leading beverage companies remain strong [16] - The real estate market is under pressure, with a focus on policy-driven recovery and the performance of leading companies [18][28] - The automotive industry is characterized by strong sales growth for new models, particularly for Sairus, while BYD's overseas market continues to grow rapidly despite domestic challenges [19][20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the mid-to-high-end automotive market, particularly for domestic brands [6]. Core Insights - The domestic automotive market is experiencing a shift from a focus on cost-effectiveness to brand building, especially in the mid-to-high-end segments [1][2]. - The high-end market (above 150,000 RMB) is expected to see significant growth, with domestic brands poised to capture a larger share due to their increasing brand loyalty and product capabilities [2][5]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with traditional luxury brands facing challenges from emerging domestic players leveraging technology and innovation [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Mid-to-High-End Market Profitability - The mid-to-high-end market is characterized by strong profitability and significant growth potential, with domestic brands currently holding less than 50% market share in segments priced above 150,000 RMB [2][5]. - The 5-15 million RMB market is dominated by domestic brands, achieving a market share of 70.6% as of Q2 2025, but is entering a phase of stock competition with limited growth potential [12][16]. - The 15-25 million RMB market shows a growing share for domestic brands, currently at 48.0%, indicating room for further expansion [18][19]. 2. Lessons from Overseas Brands - Traditional luxury brands have established strong brand identities through historical positioning and consistent messaging, which domestic brands can learn from [2][3]. - The ultra-luxury segment emphasizes performance and exclusivity, while traditional luxury brands focus on luxury experiences and brand prestige [3]. 3. Building Brand Barriers for Domestic Brands - Domestic brands are increasingly focusing on building brand barriers through product differentiation and technological advancements, particularly in the luxury segment [4][5]. - The competitive landscape in the 25 million RMB and above market is stabilizing, with leading domestic brands like Li Auto and Huawei establishing a strong presence [4][24]. 4. Challenges and Opportunities in the Luxury Market - The luxury market is witnessing a clear leadership structure, with domestic brands like Li Auto and Xiaomi emerging as strong competitors against traditional luxury brands [4][24]. - The report suggests that the 15-25 million RMB market is fragmented and presents opportunities for traditional and emerging players to establish leadership [15][19]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands in the mid-to-high-end market, particularly those with strong brand potential and innovative capabilities [5]. - Suggested companies for investment include emerging players like Xiaomi, Li Auto, and traditional brands with high-end sub-brands such as Geely and BYD [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive industry in July 2025 is expected to show resilience with domestic vehicle sales projected between 1.85 million to 1.90 million units, driven by sustained deliveries from June orders, summer travel demand, and the effects of vehicle trade-in policies [2][1] - The overall trend for the automotive industry in the second half of 2025 is anticipated to remain strong despite potential year-on-year growth pressures starting in September due to last year's base effects [3][4] Company Performance BYD and Geely - BYD sold 344,000 vehicles in July, including 80,000 exports, while Geely sold 240,000 vehicles, marking a 58% year-on-year increase with over 50% of sales from new energy vehicles [5][1] New Entrants - Xiaomi sold 48,000 vehicles, primarily from the AITO M8 and M9 models, while Leap Motor surpassed 50,000 units for the first time, and XPeng reported a year-on-year sales increase of over 200% with 37,000 units sold [5][1] Joint Ventures - Joint venture brands maintained a 35% market share, with SAIC Volkswagen selling 110,000 units and FAW Toyota selling 68,000 units, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [5][1] Huawei Automotive Developments - Huawei's automotive segment is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, with the new AITO M7 model anticipated to be competitively priced around 300,000 yuan, enhancing market performance for Seres [6][1] - The expected sales for the M9 model are projected to recover to 18,000 to 20,000 units, contributing to a total sales target of 450,000 units for March 2025 [7][1] Upcoming Models and Market Expectations BAIC Blue Valley - The BAIC Blue Valley S9T is set to launch in September 2025, with strong sales potential based on its comfort and luxury features, aiming to replicate the early sales success of the AITO models [8][1] SAIC Group - The SAIC Group's H5 model, a collaboration with Huawei, is expected to launch on September 30, 2025, priced between 150,000 to 250,000 yuan, with a high probability of success due to cost control and Huawei's channel support [9][1] JAC Motors - JAC Motors' Zun Jie S800 has nearly 10,000 orders, with a production plan of 3,000 units in September, aiming for steady monthly sales of 1,500 to 2,000 units, indicating strong competitive advantages [10][1] Future Trends and Investment Opportunities - The Huawei automotive ecosystem is expected to see multiple new models launched in 2026, enhancing competitiveness through improved management and operational practices [11][1] - Other notable investment opportunities include Geely and Great Wall Motors, which are currently undervalued with market valuations between 10 to 12 times earnings, presenting good growth potential [12][1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of five new vehicles from Hongmeng Zhixing in September, highlighting the challenges faced by the Zhijie brand and the performance of the Wanjie series, which significantly influences the overall sales trajectory of Hongmeng Zhixing [2][4][7]. Group 1: Upcoming Vehicle Launches - Hongmeng Zhixing will launch five new models in September, including the all-new Wanjie M7, Xiangjie S9T, Shangjie H5, and updated Zhijie R7 and S7 [2][3]. - The updated Zhijie R7 is expected to align its intelligent driving hardware with the Wanjie M8, featuring Huawei ADS 4 and zero-gravity seats for both front seats [3][4]. Group 2: Sales Performance and Challenges - The Zhijie brand has faced fluctuating sales, with the Zhijie R7 experiencing a peak monthly sales of 16,000 units in December last year, but dropping to around 2,000 units by June this year [4]. - In June, Hongmeng Zhixing achieved a record monthly delivery of 52,700 vehicles, with Wanjie accounting for over 80% of sales at 46,000 units, while both Xiangjie and Zhijie sold less than 5,000 units each [4][11]. Group 3: Wanjie Series Performance - The Wanjie series, particularly the M8 and M9, has shown a rebound in sales after model updates, with the M8 pure electric version set to launch in August [7][8]. - The new Wanjie M7, based on the Seres Magic Cube platform, will feature a family design language and is expected to offer both pure electric and range-extended versions [8][9]. Group 4: New Model Features and Market Positioning - The upcoming Xiangjie S9T will be the first travel car from Hongmeng Zhixing, launching both pure electric and range-extended versions simultaneously, with a focus on high-end features [11]. - The Shangjie H5 is positioned as the lowest-priced model in the Hongmeng Zhixing lineup, expected to be priced between 150,000 to 250,000 yuan, and will feature the latest ADS 4 driving assistance system [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a closing price of 130.03 CNY as of July 14, 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.7 billion to 3.2 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.2% to 97.0% [1][2]. - The net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be 2.19 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 56.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 188.9% [1]. - The company is experiencing a strong performance in the high-end market, particularly with the launch of the AITO M8, which has received over 60,000 pre-orders within 13 days of its release [3]. - The company is pursuing a global strategy through its Hong Kong IPO, aiming to enhance its R&D capabilities and expand its international market presence [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 178.89 billion CNY for 2025, with a growth rate of 23.2% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 10.51 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 76.8% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 6.44 CNY for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 [5][10]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenues and profits through 2027, with revenues reaching 259.35 billion CNY and net profits of 15.14 billion CNY by that year [5][10].