利率不断走低、资本市场"吸睛"，低利率新周期如何应对，成为保险资金当前主要议题。截至8月31 日，中报季收官，中国平安、中国人寿、中国太保、中国人保、新华保险五大A股上市险企的投资"账 本"同时摊开。从投资端来看，上半年各家险企投资资产均较年初实现增长。在增加的投资资产中，权 益类资产备受青睐。 低利率环境对人身险公司的资产负债匹配提出了新要求。多家险企管理层表示，在固收类资产收益承压 的背景下，挖掘多元资产、增配权益类资产，特别是高股息资产，已成为上市险企资产配置策略中的重 要一环。此外，险企还注重对成长性标的的挖掘，以捕捉超额收益。 权益布局加码增厚收益 投资业绩一直都是保险公司整体业绩表现的"胜负手"。截至6月末，中国平安、中国人寿、中国太保、 中国人保、新华保险五大A股上市险企投资资产合计19.73万亿元，同比增长7.52%。 今年上半年，资本市场呈现回暖态势，为保险公司投资收益的提升创造了有利条件，多家险企披露的投 资收益相关指标，较2024年上半年均实现明显增长，但也有个别险企投资收益率下滑。 对于未来投资环境，苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟在接受北京商报记者采访时预测，债市方面，低利率环 境或将延续， ...

今年上半年，资本市场呈现回暖态势，为保险公司投资收益的提升创造了有利条件，多家险企披露的投资收益相关指标，较2024年上半年均实现明显增 长，但也有个别险企投资收益率下滑。 虽然各家公司披露口径不一，但也能通过投资收益和投资收益率指标看到整体投资表现。具体来说，中国人保上半年年化总投资收益率为5.1%，同比提 升1个百分点；中国人寿总投资收益率为3.29%；中国太保总投资收益率为2.3%，同比下降0.4个百分点。三家公司上半年分别实现总投资收益414.78亿 元、1275.06亿元、568.89亿元，增速分别是42.7%、4.2%、1.5%。 从半年报数据来看，各家险企在优化资产配置上虽有不同侧重，但都明显加大了对权益投资的配置力度。如中国平安股票投资占比已经达到了10.5%，去 年同期为7.6%；中国人寿的权益类金融资产上半年数额为1.43万亿元，较年初增加了1565亿元。其中股票类资产达6201.37亿元，较年初增加了1190.54亿 元。 对于未来投资环境，苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟在接受北京商报记者采访时预测，债市方面，低利率环境或将延续，利率债虽具备安全边际，但收益率承 压，对于险企来说，亟须通过精细 ...

理解并平衡这两类资产，是构建成功投资组合的基础。 二、"会长肉的鸡" (长肉型投资)： 成长型股票： 处于高速发展期、通常不分红或少分红，将利润用于再投资扩张的公司股票（如科技、生物技术）。投资者预期其未来价值大幅 提升。 一、"会下蛋的鸡" (下蛋型投资)： 1、核心目标：定期产生现金流（"蛋"）。就像蛋鸡源源不断下蛋一样，这类投资定期给你带来现金收入。 2、收益形式：利息、股息、租金等。 3、代表资产： 债券 定期支付利息，到期返还本金。 高股息股票 盈利稳定、持续派发高股息的上市公司股票（如公用事业、消费必需品等）。 REITs (房地产信托基金) 投资于房地产项目，强制将大部分利润以股息形式分配给投资者，相当于"收租" 派息基金/ETF 投资于一篮子派息股票或债券，定期向持有人分配收益。 储蓄账户/大额存单 支付利息。 出租房产 收取租金 4、特点：通常风险相对较低（尤其是优质债券、蓝筹股），波动性较小，提供稳定的收入来源，适合需要现金流的投资者（如退休人士）。但资本增值潜 力通常有限（"鸡"本身不太长肉）。 新兴市场股票/基金 预期经济高速增长带来资产升值。 加密货币 典型的高风险、高潜在回报的资本 ...

8月8日起，新发行的国债等债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。保险机构的债券配置规模大、占比 高，这一调整将对其带来何种影响？ 业内人士认为，整体来看，对新发国债等债券的利息收入恢复征收增值税，对险企净利润的静态影 响较小，但对险企在不同债券品种间的配置会产生一定影响。同时，险企还可能增配权益类资产，在一 定程度上替代债券。整体上看，增值税政策的调整并不会影响债券作为险资配置"压舱石"的地位，债券 仍将是险资配置的"基本盘"，而权益资产配置则可能呈边际提升态势。 整体影响较小 根据财政部和税务总局8月1日发布的《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》，对8月8日之 后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。对在8月8日之前 已发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券（包含在2025年8月8日之后续发行的部分）的利息收入，继续 免征增值税直至债券到期。 近年来，保险机构尤其是人身险公司持续加大债券配置力度，将债券作为第一大配置资产。国家金 融监督管理总局数据显示，截至今年一季度末，保险资金运用余额约34.9万亿元。其中，债券投资余额 约16.97万亿元，约占资金运用总额的48.58%， ...

对险资投资收益的直接冲击 新政策的实施将直接影响保险机构的债券投资收益率。根据相关测算，新发国债等债券恢复征收增值税后，保险公司面临的增值税率为6%。以当前10年期 国债1.7%左右的票息收益计算，相关利率债头寸的票息收益可能下降约9.6个基点。考虑到保险行业债券资产占资金运用余额的近50%，假设其中70%属于国 债等利率债，对险企投资端收益率的影响约为下降3个基点。 这一影响程度相对有限，主要原因在于政策的新老划断机制。截至今年一季度末，保险资金债券投资余额约16.97万亿元，占资金运用总额的48.58%。由于 存量债券继续享受免税待遇，短期内对保险公司净利润的静态影响较小。多家研究机构的测算结果显示，新政策对保险公司净利润的影响程度在1%左右， 整体冲击可控。 保险机构可以通过多种方式应对收益率下降的挑战。一方面，可以加大对存量免税债券的配置力度，充分利用其税收优势。另一方面，由于国债等恢复征收 增值税，使得其与信用债、公司债等品种的税负差距缩小，保险公司可以视情况边际增配信用债等品种，优化债券组合结构。 8月8日起，新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。这一政策调整对保险资金的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds and other bonds starting from August 8 is expected to have a limited static impact on the net profits of insurance companies, but it may influence their asset allocation strategies, potentially leading to an increased allocation in equity assets as a partial substitute for bonds [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - As of August 8, 2023, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while those issued before this date will remain exempt until maturity [2]. Impact on Insurance Companies - The overall impact on insurance companies' net profits is estimated to be around 1%, with some firms potentially adjusting their asset allocation towards higher-yielding assets or older bonds to mitigate the effects of the new tax policy [3][4]. - According to estimates from major insurance companies, the impact of the new policy on their net profits is projected to range from 0.26% to 1.77%, indicating a relatively minor effect [3]. Asset Allocation Trends - Despite the slight decrease in actual interest income, bonds will maintain their status as the "ballast" in insurance asset allocation. However, some insurance firms may increase their allocation to equity assets in response to the changing market conditions [4][5]. - Data shows that as of the end of Q1 2023, insurance funds had a bond investment balance of approximately 16.97 trillion yuan, accounting for about 48.58% of total investments, with life insurance companies having an even higher allocation of 51.18% [2]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that insurance funds will continue to focus on long-duration bonds, especially in a declining interest rate environment, while also considering high-dividend stocks to enhance overall investment returns [5]. - The potential for increased allocation to high-dividend stocks and growth stocks is anticipated as insurance companies seek to balance short-term volatility with long-term gains, especially as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes [5].

Core Viewpoint - The reintroduction of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds is expected to have a minimal impact on insurance companies' net profits, estimated at around 1% in the short term, while encouraging a shift towards high-dividend assets and older bonds for hedging purposes [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Impact of VAT Reintroduction - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced on August 1 that VAT will be reinstated on interest income from newly issued bonds starting August 8, while previously issued bonds will remain exempt until maturity [2]. - Insurance companies have significantly increased their bond allocations, with bond investments reaching approximately 16.97 trillion yuan, accounting for about 48.58% of total investment [2]. Quantitative Analysis - Research from Huayuan Securities indicates that the short-term impact on insurance companies' net profits from the VAT policy is around 1%, with potential for increased impact as the allocation to new bonds rises over time [3]. - Guojin Securities estimates the impact on the net profits of the five major listed insurance companies for 2024 to be between 0.26% and 1.77%, indicating a generally minor effect [3]. Asset Allocation Trends - Despite the slight decrease in actual interest income, bonds will maintain their status as the "ballast" in insurance asset allocation, although there may be a marginal increase in equity asset allocation to enhance overall investment returns [4][5]. - As of the end of the first quarter, insurance funds have continued to increase their bond allocations, with a notable rise in the proportion of bond investments compared to the end of the previous year [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that insurance funds will likely accelerate their allocation to long-duration bonds to lock in tax-exempt returns, while the scarcity of these bonds may lead to a premium, resulting in lower long-term bond yields and increased fair value [4]. - Insurance companies are expected to increase their holdings in high-dividend stocks and growth stocks to mitigate the pressure from the VAT reintroduction and declining long-term interest rates, aiming for better long-term returns [6].

上海的王阿姨最近有点愁，手里10万元养老钱在银行理财里放了三年，年化收益持续走低，到期后想转 投更高收益的产品，却发现要么锁定期长达五年，要么风险等级超出自己的承受范围。"以前闭眼买理 财都能赚钱，现在怎么就这么难？"她的困惑，正是当下千万投资者的缩影。 越来越多像王阿姨这样的投资者意识到：单纯依赖银行理财、货币基金等传统工具，早已跟不上资产保 值增值的需求。而一度被视为"股民专属"的券商，正凭借能穿透资产本质的专业判断、"资金7×24小时 不闲置"的灵活服务，以及多元收益路径，重新定义普通人的财富管理逻辑。 理财方案升级：从理财目标出发匹配解决方案 在全球经济增速放缓、货币政策持续宽松的大背景下，国内低利率环境或已成常态。传统理财产品正面 临"收益下行压力加大、资金流动性受限、服务模式趋同"的三重挑战。在此背景下，平安证券聚焦客户 多样化收益目标，推出差异化理财解决方案。 针对风险承受能力较低，力争超越1年定存收益的客户。平安证券推出国债逆回购、货币基金与短期债 基组合模式，在丰富收益来源的同时，通过低风险资产配置有效控制投资风险，为保守型投资者提供稳 健选择。 对于具备一定风险承受能力、追求跑赢CPI通胀 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the bond market and its recent adjustments, influenced by macroeconomic policies and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustment Factors**: The recent market adjustment is attributed to multiple factors, including a shift in risk appetite following the initiation of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station project, which boosted equity and commodity markets, thereby exerting pressure on the bond market [2]. 2. **Liquidity Conditions**: After a period of relative liquidity in June, July saw increased volatility and signs of tightening liquidity, which placed significant pressure on bullish positions in the bond market [2][3]. 3. **Redemption Pressures**: Weak institutional earnings have led to redemption pressures, causing a shift in holdings between trading and allocation positions [2][3]. 4. **"Anti-Internal Competition" Policy**: This policy aims to elevate prices to lower the actual interest rates for enterprises, thereby improving profitability. The effectiveness of this policy will be assessed by monitoring CPI and PPI in the fourth quarter [1][4]. 5. **Asset Allocation Trends**: The adjustment in asset allocation is primarily occurring at the institutional level, with a notable increase in the allocation to equity assets, particularly high-dividend stocks and Hong Kong stocks, as a response to declining deposit rates [5][6]. 6. **Bond Supply and Demand**: Convertible bonds are in high demand due to their scarcity, while credit bonds have stable net supply but increased demand due to the growth of wealth management products. Conversely, the supply of interest rate bonds is rising, but demand is weakening [7]. 7. **Future Market Variables**: Key variables to monitor include central bank operations, potential tightening of liquidity, and the impact of government bond issuance on market dynamics. The necessity for interest rate cuts may decrease if the focus shifts to lowering actual interest rates [8][9]. 8. **Macroeconomic Trends**: The macroeconomic trend is shifting from relying on rate cuts to using price increases to lower actual rates. This could pose mid-term risks to the bond market if nominal growth and price levels rise [10]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights a lack of significant retail investor movement towards equities, indicating that the rebalancing of assets is more pronounced among institutional investors [5][6]. - The potential for a rebound in the third quarter is noted, contingent on fiscal issuance and central bank liquidity measures, while caution is advised for the fourth quarter due to possible risks [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation is crucial for the global capital market's trajectory in the second half of the year and could significantly impact wealth over the next few years [1][6]. Summary by Sections Legislation Overview - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, primarily benefiting corporations and wealthy individuals to attract investment back into the U.S. manufacturing sector [7]. - The legislation's core logic involves providing tax cuts for the wealthy while increasing the debt ceiling to maintain fiscal spending, leading to a historical high of over $41 trillion in U.S. debt [7]. Debt Management Strategy - The increase in U.S. debt is seen as a means to manage the existing debt crisis and maintain the dollar's global dominance, despite concerns about the declining credit quality of U.S. debt [9]. - The proposed "Pennsylvania Bill" aims to convert foreign-held debt into domestic debt, reducing reliance on foreign investors by encouraging domestic institutions and individuals to hold U.S. debt [11]. Economic Policy Implications - The strategy includes depreciating the dollar and lowering interest rates to facilitate the debt replacement process, similar to Japan's long-term economic approach [13][15]. - The U.S. government may implement policies to ensure domestic entities, such as pension funds and insurance companies, are compelled to purchase U.S. debt, potentially with the Federal Reserve acting as a backstop [11][12]. Future Considerations - The introduction of stablecoin legislation is intended to maintain the dollar's status in the global economy, as it could facilitate digital payments while binding stablecoins to the dollar [16]. - The overall strategy may lead to a significant depreciation of the dollar and U.S. debt, creating a favorable environment for alternative assets such as commodities and high-dividend stocks [16]. Investment Opportunities - The anticipated depreciation of the dollar and U.S. debt prices suggests that the second half of the year may favor safe-haven assets, including precious metals and stable income-generating investments [16].