智通财经11月26日讯，深成指、创业板指双双低开高走，创业板指盘中一度涨超3%。沪深两市成交额1.78万亿，较上一个交易日缩量288亿。盘面上，市场 热点快速轮动，全市场超3500只个股下跌。从板块来看，算力硬件概念集体走强，东芯股份20cm涨停，中际旭创再创历史新高。大消费板块尾盘爆发，海 欣食品、广百股份等多股涨停。抗流感概念股表现活跃，广济药业3连板，北大医药2连板。下跌方面，军工板块走弱，久之洋跌超12%。截至收盘，沪指跌 0.15%，深成指涨1.02%，创业板指涨2.14%。 板块方面 大同证券在近期研报中对AI行业持乐观展望，并判断由算力需求拉动的供应链增长，在中长期内具备持续跑赢大盘的潜力。而从市场的角度来看，中际旭 创的再创新高有利于市场对于科技股风格做多信心恢复。 不过需注意的是，部分谷歌链概念股（如德科立、腾景科技等）在短线连续上涨后分歧加剧，呈 现出放量冲高回落的走势。另外，多数算力硬件股还将面临前期套牢卖压的考验，所以在增量资金不足的情况下，该方向短线还是存在震荡反复的可能。 大消费板块尾盘拉升，海欣食品、东百集团、国光连锁、三江购物、茂业商业等涨停，朱老六、欢乐家、中百集团等涨幅居前 ...

Global Market Outlook - The recovery in traditional cycle-related investments and consumption in non-US regions is expected to continue, although terminal consumption may recover slowly due to widening wealth disparities and increased uncertainty in economic, political, and employment prospects [2][6] - The Eurozone is maintaining its recovery, with domestic demand expected to replace net exports as the main contributor to economic growth in 2026 [10][11] - Southeast Asia is projected to outperform global growth, with Vietnam and Indonesia as key beneficiaries of industrial relocation and global supply chain diversification [2][17] Industry Outlook - Continued optimism in AI, electrification, and finance sectors, with high demand for overseas computing power expected to persist until the end of 2026 [3][9] - Capital expenditure in high-demand sectors like defense and AI infrastructure is anticipated to expand, while traditional cycle-related capital expenditure may recover at a slower pace due to terminal demand influences [8][9] - The consumer sector is expected to face challenges, with US consumption growth potentially cooling, while non-US regions may see marginal recovery [3][9] Regional Insights - In the Eurozone, private consumption is expected to grow, but high uncertainty may slow consumer confidence recovery [11][12] - Japan's economy is projected to grow above potential GDP, driven by expanding consumption and equipment investment [13][14] - Southeast Asia's average economic growth is forecasted at 4.2%, with specific countries like Vietnam and Indonesia leading in growth rates [17][18] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with reasonable valuations and positive catalysts, such as pharmaceuticals and automotive [9][10] - In Japan, attention is drawn to sectors benefiting from external economic improvements, particularly electronics, machinery, and automotive [15][61] - In Southeast Asia, the real estate sector is expected to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment, while industrial and logistics sectors may benefit from effective tariff rates [18][19] Technology and AI - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to remain robust, with significant capital expenditure growth anticipated in 2026 [27][28] - AI ASIC and GPU markets are projected to see substantial growth, driven by increased deployment by major cloud service providers [23][26] - Software and AI are expected to mutually enhance each other, with software playing a crucial role in AI application deployment [30][31] Consumer Goods - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a divergence in revenue growth, with leading companies likely to outperform smaller competitors [48][49] - The home care and personal care sectors may face short-term pressure due to slowing growth rates and cost challenges [50][51] - The luxury goods market is projected to recover in 2026, driven by consumer demand in key regions [52][54] Automotive Sector - Global passenger car sales are expected to see a slight increase, particularly in Europe due to new product cycles and improving labor markets [45][46] - European automakers are anticipated to accelerate their electric vehicle transitions, while US automakers stabilize after tariff impacts [46][47]

Core Insights - Aletheia Capital's report highlights a significant underestimation of the demand for advanced packaging, particularly CoWoS, driven by emerging AI applications [1] - The report predicts a substantial capacity shortfall for TSMC's CoWoS technology, with a projected gap of 400,000 units in 2026 and 700,000 units in 2027, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [1] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The growth in GPU shipments and the rapid expansion of photomask sizes are identified as the two main drivers for CoWoS demand [1] - New devices such as server CPUs, high-end PCs, and gaming console chips are expected to adopt CoWoS technology starting in the second half of this year, with a significant acceleration anticipated by 2026 [1] Group 2: Beneficiaries - Aletheia names six Taiwanese companies—TSMC, ASE Technology Holding, Kyec, ChipMOS, Wistron NeWeb, and Hongjing Precision—as beneficiaries of the positive industry trend, recommending a "buy" for these stocks [1] - TSMC's CoWoS-dependent chips include products from Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, and Broadcom, indicating a broad reliance on TSMC's advanced packaging capabilities [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion Challenges - Despite TSMC's plans to quadruple CoWoS capacity between 2024 and 2027, this expansion is expected to fall short of the rapidly growing demand, prompting customers to seek assistance from packaging manufacturers [2] - Companies like ASE and Amkor are expected to play crucial roles in packaging for new products, with significant increases in CoWoS demand projected between 2025 and 2027 [2] Group 4: Testing and Outsourcing - Kyec is set to benefit from strong growth in testing services for Broadcom's AI ASICs starting in 2026, as well as from TSMC's outsourcing of wafer probing tests [2] - Wistron NeWeb is also expected to gain from TSMC's outsourcing strategy, as packaging manufacturers increasingly adopt Wistron NeWeb's solutions [2]

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang visited South Korea after 15 years, signaling a strategic partnership with major Korean conglomerates to address supply chain concerns [1][3] - Nvidia recently became the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion, highlighting its dominance in the AI sector [1] - The meeting with Samsung and Hyundai leaders was not just a casual gathering but a strategic move to strengthen Nvidia's supply chain and market position [1][3] Group 1: Strategic Partnerships - Huang's meeting with Samsung's Lee Jae-Yong and Hyundai's Chung Eui-sun at a casual venue symbolizes a deeper partnership beyond mere supplier-client relationships [1][6] - Nvidia aims to secure a stable supply of GPUs and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) from Samsung, which is crucial for its production capabilities [2][3] - The partnership includes significant GPU allocations: 50,000 units each for the South Korean government, Samsung, and SK Group, and 60,000 units for NAVER Cloud [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global AI arms race has intensified, making wafer production and HBM supply critical bottlenecks for Nvidia's capacity expansion [3] - Competitors in China, such as Huawei and Alibaba, are forming alliances to create an independent AI computing ecosystem, posing a long-term threat to Nvidia's market share [6][7] - The importance of building a comprehensive ecosystem is emphasized, as future demand for inference will surpass training needs, making cost-effectiveness and ecosystem integration vital [6] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Despite the strategic alliances, Nvidia's heavy reliance on a single region for its supply chain presents inherent risks [8] - The potential for cracks in these alliances could lead to vulnerabilities in Nvidia's market position, highlighting the need for diversification [8]

Group 1 - The electronic industry is experiencing an "inflation" trend in the upstream sector, with AI driving a "cyclical and growth resonance" in the storage field [1] - There is a supply-demand imbalance and price increases in storage, certain passive components, and high-end CCL segments [1] - Enterprise storage prices are continuously rising due to increased demand for large-capacity servers, which is squeezing the supply in the consumer market and driving up storage prices [1] Group 2 - The demand for AI servers is rapidly expanding, with major global cloud service providers accelerating the procurement of NVIDIA GPU solutions and self-developed AI ASICs [1] - It is projected that capital expenditures of the eight major cloud service providers will exceed $420 billion in 2025 and may reach $520 billion in 2026 [1] Group 3 - The integrated circuit ETF (159546) tracks the integrated circuit index (932087), which selects listed companies involved in integrated circuit design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and related materials and equipment [1] - The index constituents possess high technological content and growth potential, effectively reflecting the development trends of the integrated circuit industry [1]

Core Insights - The demand for AI servers is rapidly expanding, leading major global cloud service providers (CSPs) to increase procurement of NVIDIA GPU solutions and expand data center infrastructure [1] - Capital expenditures for eight major CSPs, including Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, are projected to exceed $420 billion by 2025, representing a 61% year-on-year increase [1] - By 2026, total capital expenditures for CSPs are expected to reach a new high of over $520 billion, driven by the continued rollout of AI cabinet solutions [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that global cloud capital expenditures could reach $820 billion by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 31%, significantly surpassing the market consensus of 16% [1] - Capital expenditures for AI servers are anticipated to grow by 70%, indicating an unprecedented growth trajectory [1] Industry Focus - The AI sector is identified as a high-growth investment theme with strong demand certainty, prompting recommendations to focus on companies such as Hon Hai Precision Industry, Huaqin Technology, Huadian Technology, Loongson Technology, Lenovo Group, Luxshare Precision, and Amlogic [1]

Core Insights - The Foundry 2.0 market is expected to see a 19% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, driven by advancements in process technology and packaging [1] - TSMC's new definition of Foundry 2.0 includes not only traditional wafer manufacturing but also packaging, testing, and photomask production, expanding the market size to nearly $250 billion in 2023, compared to $115 billion under the old definition [1] Group 1 - TSMC's advanced packaging revenue is approaching 10%, highlighting its significance for both the company and its clients, which led to the introduction of Foundry 2.0 to encompass the entire business process [2] - TSMC's market share increased from 31% to 38% year-over-year in Q2, benefiting from the ramp-up of 3nm production and high utilization rates of 4/5nm processes driven by AI GPU demand [2] - The OSAT segment is projected to grow from 5% to 11% year-over-year, with significant contributions from companies like ASE [2] Group 2 - The importance of advanced packaging technology is rising, with chip manufacturers expected to increasingly rely on it to enhance chip performance, positioning TSMC to maintain its leadership in both advanced process and packaging sectors [3] - IDC forecasts that the Foundry 2.0 market will reach $298 billion in 2025, marking an 11% year-over-year growth, transitioning from a recovery phase in 2024 to a growth phase in 2025 [3] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the Foundry 2.0 market is expected to be 10% from 2024 to 2029, driven by sustained AI demand and a gradual recovery in non-AI demand [3]

Core Insights - The Foundry 2.0 market is expected to see a 19% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 2025, driven by advancements in process technology and packaging [1] - TSMC's market share increased from 31% in the same period last year to 38% in Q2 2025, benefiting from the ramp-up of 3nm production and high utilization rates in 4/5nm due to AI GPU demand [1] - Advanced packaging is becoming a significant growth driver, with OSAT segment revenue growth accelerating from 5% to 11% year-over-year in Q2 2025, primarily contributed by ASE [1] - The importance of advanced packaging technology is rising, leading to increased dependency of chip design companies on packaging solutions [1] Group 1 - Foundry 2.0 market revenue is projected to grow 19% year-over-year in Q2 2025 [1] - TSMC's market share increased to 38% in Q2 2025, contributing over 70% to overall Foundry 2.0 revenue growth [1] - Advanced packaging is expected to drive OSAT growth, with a year-over-year increase from 5% to 11% in Q2 2025 [1] Group 2 - AI GPU and AI ASIC advanced packaging will continue to drive OSAT growth in 2025-2026 [1] - The reliance of chip design companies on packaging technology is expected to increase [1]

Core Insights - NVIDIA has begun domestic production of its Blackwell AI chips in the U.S., marking a significant milestone in the "chip manufacturing return to America" initiative [1][4] - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is surging, driven by major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta investing heavily in AI GPU and ASIC clusters [1][2] - TSMC's expansion in the U.S. is set to enhance the domestic chip supply chain and support the growing AI technology stack [4][5] Industry Trends - The AI investment boom has led to unprecedented stock market growth, with the S&P 500 and MSCI global indices reaching historical highs since April [2] - TSMC's strong performance and optimistic revenue outlook have reinforced the narrative of a long-term bull market in AI-related stocks [2][6] - The AI infrastructure market is expected to see exponential growth, with estimates of total investment reaching between $2 trillion to $3 trillion [8] Company Performance - NVIDIA's stock has increased by 40% this year, with a current market capitalization of approximately $4.45 trillion, and analysts predict it could reach $5 trillion [2][9] - TSMC's stock has also performed well, with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, surpassing NVIDIA's growth [2] - TSMC reported a record net profit in Q3, exceeding expectations by 39%, and raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to a midpoint of 30% [6] Strategic Developments - NVIDIA and TSMC's collaboration in the U.S. aligns with U.S. government policies aimed at strengthening domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities [4] - TSMC plans to produce advanced chips, including 2nm, 3nm, and 4nm technologies, at its Arizona facility by 2028, which is crucial for AI and high-performance computing applications [5][6] - Major AI players, including OpenAI, are engaging in large-scale infrastructure deals, indicating a robust demand for AI computing resources [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in capital expenditures by major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) driven by the growing demand for AI servers and the expansion of data centers, with a projected capital expenditure of $520 billion by 2026 [2] - The combined capital expenditure of eight major CSPs, including Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, is expected to exceed $420 billion in 2025, representing a 61% increase compared to the combined expenditures of 2023 and 2024 [2] Group 2 - The wafer foundry capacity utilization rate for the second half of 2025 is expected to outperform previous expectations due to low inventory levels, the peak sales season for smartphones, and sustained strong AI demand, leading some foundries to consider price increases for certain tight-process platforms [4] Group 3 - The demand for AI inference applications is driving the need for high-capacity storage solutions, prompting HDD and SSD suppliers to expand their offerings of large-capacity storage products, including Nearline SSDs with capacities of 122TB and 245TB [5] - The HDD market is facing a significant supply gap, which is encouraging NAND Flash manufacturers to accelerate their technological advancements to meet the growing demand [5]