Core Insights - SEMIFIVE has secured a KRW 18 billion (approximately USD 12.5 million) turnkey design contract for a next-generation AI NPU, reinforcing its leadership in the AI semiconductor market [1][1][1] Group 1: Project Details - The new project involves the development of a high-performance AI NPU utilizing Samsung Foundry's advanced 4nm (SF4X) process technology [1][1] - This contract is a follow-on project with an existing customer, indicating strong client relationships and trust in SEMIFIVE's capabilities [1][1] - The AI NPU is designed for on-premise environments, focusing on real-time processing of high-resolution Vision AI and LLM inference [1][1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - SEMIFIVE's proprietary SoC design automation system and end-to-end engineering solutions enhance ASIC development efficiency [1][1] - The company manages the entire development lifecycle, allowing clients to concentrate on their core AI architecture [1][1] - SEMIFIVE has experience with large-die turnkey projects exceeding 800 mm² and possesses high-speed interface design capabilities crucial for high-performance AI silicon [1][1] Group 3: Market Position and Expansion - The company is expanding its global footprint, targeting markets in the United States, China, Japan, India, and Europe [1][1] - As demand for high-performance AI ASICs grows, SEMIFIVE aims to become a strategic partner in the global AI ecosystem [1][1] - The CEO emphasized that SEMIFIVE's technical references and custom design capabilities provide a significant competitive advantage in the market [1][1]

Summary of Investor Presentation: Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductors in Greater China and Asia Pacific - **Outlook**: Bullish on cloud, memory, and optical segments, with a focus on accumulating investments ahead of the GTC (GPU Technology Conference) [1][2] Key Insights - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - **Top Investment Ideas**: - **Overweight (OW)**: - Memory: Winbond (Top Pick), Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix - AI/Data Center Semiconductors: Aspeed, WT Micro - CPO (Chip-on-Panel): TSMC, ASE, AllRing, KYEC, FOCI - **Equal Weight/Underweight (EW/UW)**: ASMedia, Realtek, Parade, Novatek, Himax, WPG, Nuvoton, Goodix, Phison [6] - **Tech Inflation**: Anticipated price elasticity affecting demand for tech products due to rising wafer, OSAT, and memory costs, leading to margin headwinds for chip designers in 2026 [6] - **AI Cannibalization**: Demand weakness as AI replaces some human jobs, with the semiconductor supply chain prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI semiconductors, leading to shortages in T-Glass and memory [6] - **China AI Demand**: DeepSeek is driving inferencing AI demand, raising questions about the sufficiency of domestic GPUs. Cheaper inferencing demonstrated by DeepSeek could impact Nvidia H200 shipments and dilute the domestic GPU supply chain [6] Valuation Comparisons - **Foundry and Memory Companies**: - **TSMC (Ticker: 2330.TW)**: - Target Price: 2,288.0 TWD - Current Price: 1,895.0 TWD - P/E Ratio: 20.1x for 2026e - EPS Growth: 38% [8] - **SMIC (Ticker: 0981.HK)**: - Target Price: 80.0 HKD - Current Price: 64.7 HKD - P/E Ratio: 9x for 2026e - EPS Growth: 151% [8] - **Winbond (Ticker: 2344.TW)**: - Target Price: 155.0 TWD - Current Price: 114.0 TWD - Upside: 36% [12] Market Dynamics - **Memory Stock Prices**: Indicate trends for logic semiconductors, with memory share price year-over-year peaks leading logic semiconductors [13][15] - **NAND Shortage**: AI storage is leading to NAND shortages, with expectations of NOR flash undersupply into 2026 [19] - **Cloud Capex**: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to spend nearly US$685 billion on cloud capex in 2026, indicating robust demand [48] Additional Insights - **AI Semi Supply Chain**: TSMC is likely to expand CoWoS capacity to 165kwpm by 2027 due to strong AI demand, with expectations of continued capacity expansion into 2026 [65][71] - **Monthly Tokens Processed**: Suggests growing AI inference demand, with significant revenue contributions from NVIDIA and AMD in the datacenter/HPC semiconductor market [61] This summary encapsulates the key points from the investor presentation, highlighting the bullish outlook for the semiconductor industry in Greater China, key investment opportunities, and market dynamics affecting the sector.

AI ASIC 订单加速兑现，定制算力进入黄金周期 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 8 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 郭一江 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120001 邮 箱：guoyijiang@cindasc.com 杨宇轩 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525010001 邮 箱：yangyuxuan@cindasc.com 王义夫 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525090001 邮 箱：wangyifu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] AI ASIC 订单加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electronics industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the electronics sub - industries have undergone significant adjustments. The year - to - date and weekly percentage changes of the Shenwan Electronics secondary indices vary among different sub - industries. North American important stocks mostly declined this week. The demand for AI ASIC has exploded, with Broadcom's performance and guidance exceeding expectations. Marvell's revenue driven by the data center and AI has reached a new high, and its growth potential is strengthening. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas AI - related, domestic AI - related, and storage - related stocks [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Tracking - **Electronics Industry**: The year - to - date percentage changes of Shenwan Electronics secondary indices are: Semiconductors (+9.93%), Other Electronics II (+8.61%), Components (+7.63%), Optoelectronics (+8.93%), Consumer Electronics (-4.34%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+18.42%). The weekly percentage changes are: Semiconductors (-5.57%), Other Electronics II (-4.08%), Components (-4.79%), Optoelectronics (-2.26%), Consumer Electronics (-5.40%), and Electronic Chemicals II (-6.21%) [3][10] - **Stock Price Changes**: Most North American important stocks declined this week. The year - to - date and weekly percentage changes of important technology stocks in the US stock market are provided. For example, Apple's year - to - date change is -5.30% and this week's change is -2.54% [3][11] 3.2 Individual Stock Price Changes - **Semiconductor Sector**: This week, Parylene Co., Ltd., BAW Storage Co., Ltd., Yuanjie Technology Co., Ltd., Demingli Co., Ltd., and Jiangbo Long Co., Ltd. had relatively high increases, with year - on - year increases of +38.17%, +26.25%, +10.52%, +5.93%, and +4.90% respectively. Oulexin Material Co., Ltd., Juguang Technology Co., Ltd., Kaide Quartz Co., Ltd., Ashi Chuang Co., Ltd., and Aojie Technology Co., Ltd. had relatively large declines, with year - on - year decreases of -20.26%, -20.17%, -16.00%, -15.28%, and -15.24% respectively [17][18] - **Consumer Electronics Sector**: This week, Suzhou Tianmai Co., Ltd., Jiemei Te Co., Ltd., Wanxiang Technology Co., Ltd., Hongri Da Co., Ltd., and Jiebang Technology Co., Ltd. had relatively high increases, with year - on - year increases of +34.12%, +16.62%, +8.46%, +6.07%, and +4.18% respectively. Jierong Technology Co., Ltd., Huanxu Electronics Co., Ltd., Tonglian Precision Co., Ltd., Kesen Technology Co., Ltd., and Yunzhong Technology Co., Ltd. had relatively large declines, with year - on - year decreases of -18.96%, -17.22%, -16.87%, -14.36%, and -14.29% respectively [18][19] - **Component Sector**: This week, Kexiang Co., Ltd., Xunjiexing Co., Ltd., Zhongying Technology Co., Ltd., Dongshan Precision Co., Ltd., and Chaoying Electronics Co., Ltd. had relatively high increases, with year - on - year increases of +23.26%, +18.80%, +12.43%, +11.57%, and +10.40% respectively. Shiyun Circuit Co., Ltd., Huazheng New Materials Co., Ltd., Dalikai Pu Co., Ltd., Pengding Holdings Co., Ltd., and Hudian Co., Ltd. had relatively large declines, with year - on - year decreases of -14.88%, -13.64%, -11.02%, -9.82%, and -9.80% respectively [19][20] - **Optoelectronics Sector**: This week, Huacan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., Jufei Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., Tianlu Technology Co., Ltd., Yashi Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., and Huasu Holdings Co., Ltd. had relatively high increases, with year - on - year increases of +35.84%, +17.35%, +16.14%, +14.10%, and +13.03% respectively. Huichuangda Co., Ltd., Heli Tai Co., Ltd., Kaisheng Technology Co., Ltd., Gebijia Co., Ltd., and Fujing Technology Co., Ltd. had relatively large declines, with year - on - year decreases of -18.00%, -12.62%, -11.24%, -10.85%, and -10.67% respectively [21][22] - **Electronic Chemicals Sector**: This week, Jinhong Gas Co., Ltd., Siquan New Materials Co., Ltd., Laite Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., Puyang Huicheng Co., Ltd., and Sanfu New Materials Co., Ltd. had relatively high increases, with year - on - year increases of +6.77%, +3.15%, +2.58%, +0.89%, and +0.83% respectively. Tongyu New Materials Co., Ltd., Qiangli New Materials Co., Ltd., Jingrui Electric Materials Co., Ltd., Feikai Materials Co., Ltd., and Rongda Photosensitive Co., Ltd. had relatively large declines, with year - on - year decreases of -14.08%, -11.21%, -10.71%, -10.58%, and -10.28% respectively [22][23] 3.3 Company Performance Analysis - **Broadcom**: In FY26Q1, it achieved revenue of $19.3 billion, a year - on - year increase of 29%, higher than the market expectation of $19.26 billion. AI - related semiconductor revenue reached $8.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 106%. The company expects FY26Q2 revenue to be about $22 billion (a year - on - year increase of 47%), and AI semiconductor revenue will further increase to about $10.7 billion [3] - **Marvell**: In FY26Q4, it achieved revenue of $2.2 billion, a year - on - year increase of 22%, and Non - GAAP EPS was $0.80. The full - year FY26 revenue reached $8.2 billion, a year - on - year increase of 42%. The data center business accounts for about 74%. The company expects revenue in each quarter of FY27 to continue to grow at an accelerating rate and predicts that FY27 Q1 revenue will be about $2.4 billion [3] 3.4 Stock Recommendations - **Overseas AI - related Stocks**: Foxconn Industrial Internet Co., Ltd., Hudian Co., Ltd., Pengding Holdings Co., Ltd., Shenghong Technology Co., Ltd., Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd., Shengyi Electronics Co., Ltd., etc. - **Domestic AI - related Stocks**: Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited, Xin Yuan Co., Ltd., SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor Limited, Shennan Circuits Co., Ltd., etc. - **Storage - related Stocks**: GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc., Puren Co., Ltd., Dongxin Co., Ltd., Hengshuo Co., Ltd., Demingli Co., Ltd., Jiangbo Long Co., Ltd., etc. [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom Inc. is recognized as one of the top AI stocks on Wall Street, with mixed analyst opinions regarding its future performance, particularly in relation to its AI exposure and earnings potential [1][2][5]. Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Broadcom, expressing optimism ahead of the company's earnings report, anticipating a solid quarter driven by AI momentum [1]. - Robert W. Baird also holds a positive outlook, reiterating a "Buy" rating with a price target of $420.00, citing strong AI momentum and earnings potential [2]. Revenue Expectations - Baird highlights that the increasing demand for Broadcom's v7 custom ASICs, which support Google's TPU infrastructure, is expected to significantly boost AI-related revenue [3]. - However, DA Davidson initiated coverage with a "Neutral" recommendation and a price target of $335, suggesting that Broadcom may face challenges as hyperscalers shift towards customized accelerators [4]. Market Dynamics - DA Davidson expresses concerns that some of Broadcom's major customers might internalize more of their silicon stack, which could pressure supplier economics over time [5]. - The firm also notes that while Broadcom has potential in the AI ASIC market, it may not justify a premium valuation compared to market leaders like Nvidia [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly in the AI and HPC sectors, indicating a strong demand that supports revenue growth [2][5]. Core Insights - TSMC reported a record revenue of NT$401.26 billion in January 2026, a year-on-year increase of 36.8%, driven by strong demand in AI servers, HPC, and cloud data centers [2][5]. - The advanced packaging capacity remains tight, which is a key factor supporting revenue growth [5]. - The report highlights that the AI sector continues to drive demand, with companies like Xinxia and JY Electronics also reporting significant revenue increases [2][5][20]. Summary by Sections AI Sector - TSMC's revenue growth is attributed to the sustained demand for AI servers and advanced process technologies, maintaining high utilization rates [5]. - Xinxia's revenue reached NT$900 million in January 2026, up 28.5% year-on-year, reflecting the strong demand for server management chips [7]. - JY Electronics reported a revenue of NT$3.37 billion, a 41% increase year-on-year, driven by the rising complexity and demand for AI-related testing [8]. Mature Process - UMC, World Advanced, and PSMC reported revenues of NT$20.86 billion, NT$4.01 billion, and NT$4.62 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 18%, and 26% [16]. - PSMC's revenue reached a 39-month high, driven by rising prices in memory wafer foundry and increased demand for logic foundry [16]. Storage - Nanya Technology, Winbond, and Macronix reported revenues of NT$15.31 billion, NT$11.78 billion, and NT$3.02 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 608%, 94%, and 51% [17]. - Nanya indicated that various DRAM products may remain tight due to limited new capacity, particularly DDR4 and LPDDR4 [17]. End-Side Chips - MediaTek's revenue was NT$46.98 billion, down 8% year-on-year, with expectations of a significant decline in mobile terminal demand due to rising costs [18]. - The Smart Edge business is expected to grow, with data center ASIC revenue projected to exceed USD 1 billion in 2026 [20]. Passive Components - Yageo reported a revenue of NT$13.03 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand from AI-related applications [20].

Summary of Global Technology Webcast - Morgan Stanley Research Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Global Semiconductor and Memory Market - **Key Analysts**: Shawn Kim, Lee Simpson, Nigel van Putten, Charlie Chan, Mason Wayne Core Insights and Arguments - **Subsector Performance**: - Memory sector showed significant growth with a **YTD increase of 241%** and a **3M increase of 38%** [12][13] - Substrates also performed well with a **YTD increase of 164%** [12] - Networking and OSAT sectors had mixed results, with OSAT down **4%** over the last week but up **94% YTD** [12] - **Earnings Revisions**: - Memory earnings revised upwards with a **YTD increase of 148%** [13] - Foundry sector saw a **YTD increase of 57%**, indicating a positive outlook despite recent declines [13] - **AI Impact**: - AI is expected to drive demand in the semiconductor space, with companies like TSMC and SMIC identified as top picks for AI-related investments [24] - The ripple effect of AI on memory demand is highlighted, with companies like Winbond and Phison being top picks in this category [24] - **Market Dynamics**: - Rising costs in wafer, OSAT, and memory are creating margin pressures for chip designers into 2026 [24] - AI cannibalization is noted, with potential job replacements and prioritization of AI semiconductors over non-AI semiconductors [24] Additional Important Insights - **Valuation Comparisons**: - Various companies in the semiconductor space were compared based on P/E ratios and market performance, with notable mentions including TSMC and SMIC [25] - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - Tech inflation and the diffusion of AI technology across various sectors are expected to sustain demand for semiconductors [24] - **Geopolitical Factors**: - The impact of domestic GPU supply chains in China and the potential dilution from Nvidia shipments is discussed, indicating a complex supply chain landscape [24] - **Cleanroom Space and Advanced Packaging**: - The outlook for semiconductor capital equipment in 2026 is dependent on cleanroom space availability and growth in advanced packaging [19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Morgan Stanley Research webcast, focusing on the semiconductor and memory sectors, their performance, and the implications of AI on the industry.

Group 1 - Broadcom (AVGO.US) is expected to maintain its leading position in the AI server ASIC design partnership field, with a market share projected to reach 60% by 2027 [1] - The shipment volume of AI server ASICs is anticipated to double by 2027, driven by the demand for Google's TPU infrastructure, Amazon's Trainium clusters, and the capacity enhancements from Meta's MTIA and Microsoft's Maia chips [1][2] - By 2028, the shipment volume of AI server ASICs is expected to exceed 15 million units, surpassing the shipment volume of data center GPUs [2] Group 2 - The market for AI server ASICs is diversifying, with Google and Amazon still leading in 2024, but their market shares are projected to decline by 2027, with Google's share dropping from 64% to 52% and Amazon's from 36% to 29% [3] - The top ten AI hyperscale data center operators are expected to deploy over 40 million AI server ASIC chips from 2024 to 2028, supported by large-scale AI infrastructure built on their technology stacks [2][3] - Broadcom and Alchip are projected to capture a significant portion of the ASIC design services market for hyperscale data centers, with shares of 60% and 18% respectively by 2027 [3] Group 3 - Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) is strengthening its end-to-end custom chip product portfolio, benefiting from innovations in custom silicon technology and the acquisition of Celestial AI, which could lead to significant revenue growth [4] - The acquisition of Celestial AI is expected to potentially position Marvell as a leader in the optical scaling connectivity market in the coming years [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by strong order fulfillment, particularly in the AI ASIC sector, with a projected revenue increase of 35.84% in 2025 [7] - The company has seen a substantial increase in new orders, with a total of 5.96 billion yuan in new orders for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 103.41% [7] - The company’s R&D expenses are expected to decrease as a percentage of revenue, indicating improved efficiency in resource allocation [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 3,154 million yuan in 2025, with further increases to 5,661 million yuan in 2026 and 8,612 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -448.92 million yuan in 2025, turning positive with 315.20 million yuan in 2026 and 805.06 million yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.85 yuan in 2025 to 1.53 yuan in 2027 [1][8] Business Performance - The company’s volume business revenue is expected to grow by 73.98% year-on-year in 2025, while chip design revenue is projected to increase by 20.94% [7] - The company has maintained a high level of orders, with a backlog of 50.75 billion yuan at the end of 2025, indicating strong future revenue potential [7] - The company’s revenue from data processing is expected to grow by over 95%, contributing approximately 34% to total revenue [7]

Group 1 - The capital expenditure (Capex) of the top eight cloud service providers is projected to grow from $145.1 billion in 2021 to $602 billion by 2026, representing an increase of over four times [1][4] - This investment surge is driven not by market speculation but by the fundamental need for computational power, particularly due to the demands of generative artificial intelligence (AI) [1][5] - The current trend is characterized as a "structural transformation" in the semiconductor market rather than a bubble, as the demand for computing resources is fundamentally changing [10][14] Group 2 - The growth in cloud investment is accelerating, with a notable increase following the release of ChatGPT by OpenAI [4][5] - Generative AI requires significantly more computational resources compared to traditional search engines, with processing demands being 10,000 to 100,000 times greater [6][7] - The competition among cloud providers is fierce, as failure to invest in generative AI capabilities could lead to losing market relevance [8][17] Group 3 - The semiconductor market, particularly the data center logic chip sector, is expected to expand significantly, with the GPU market projected to grow from $100 billion to $230 billion and the AI ASIC market from $9 billion to $84 billion by 2030 [19] - The memory market is also anticipated to experience a shift, with DRAM and HBM prices expected to rise due to increased demand from AI applications [22][24] - The transition in TSMC's primary products from N5 to N3 nodes indicates a shift towards advanced technology driven by AI demands, with NVIDIA and Broadcom expected to surpass Apple in chip investments [28][33] Group 4 - The bottleneck in AI semiconductor development is primarily due to the limited capacity of 2.5D packaging technologies like CoWoS, which are essential for integrating high-bandwidth memory with AI chips [37][39] - Once the CoWoS capacity constraints are resolved, it is expected that investment in AI infrastructure will surge, leading to further competition among cloud service providers [39][42] - The ongoing trend signifies a profound and irreversible change in the semiconductor industry, driven by the structural demands of generative AI [42]