摘要 中科曙光 20251221 曙光 SCALE X640 超级群在算力和性能方面有哪些优势？ 曙光 SCALE X640 超级群采用 1:4 的 CPU 与 AI 芯片比例，单机柜功耗 高达 860 千瓦，采用自研 HSL 卡间互联技术和静默式相变液冷技术， 以及 400-800 伏 HVDC 中压直流电源，在硬件架构上与英伟达和华为 有相似之处，但在功率密度和液冷技术上领先。 SCALE X640 超级群在 BF16 精度下算力是国内友商的两倍，兼容 CUDA 生态，拥有 10,240 块 AI 芯片，单集群算力达 5 亿 FLOPS，HBM 总带宽 18PB/s，总容量 650TB，片间互联 4.5PB/s， 柜间互联 500TB/s，显著提升大模型推理与训练能力，训练性能提高 30%以上，推理吞吐性能提高 40%以上。 曙光自研 Scale Fabric 网络基于国内首款 400GB 内生无损 RDMA 网 络芯片及交换芯片，支持万卡扩展至 10 万卡以上，性能提升 2.33 倍， 总成本下降 30%，兼容 Infiniband 生态，交换端口密度 80×400GB/s，交换容量 2,614TB，实 ...

Core Viewpoint - SenseTime is embarking on a long-term path characteristic of Chinese technology companies, focusing on the localization of AI capabilities and the development of a robust ecosystem for domestic chips and models [2][27]. Group 1: Investment and Market Confidence - On December 18, SenseTime announced a placement of new Class B shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with significant interest from at least six institutional investors, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's long-term value [3]. - The proceeds from this placement will primarily be used to expand the scale of AIDC "large devices" and increase the localization ratio [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The recent adaptation of SenseTime's "Riri Xin" Seko series multimodal models by Cambrian signifies a critical leap in domestic computing power for high-bandwidth, high-concurrency multimodal scenarios [3][4]. - The adaptation of the Seko model series represents a significant advancement in the domestic AI industry, moving beyond mere parameter scaling to a focus on physical realities and system-level collaboration [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - SenseTime is positioning itself as a "builder" in the era of "computing sovereignty," fully embracing localization and addressing the challenges posed by the unification of hardware architectures [6][7]. - The SenseCore large device serves as a training ground for domestic chips, enabling the optimization of their potential in real business scenarios [11][13]. Group 4: Ecosystem Development - SenseTime's collaboration with Cambrian is not limited to hardware procurement but extends into deep integration, creating a "stair-step product innovation system" that fosters true software-hardware synergy [14]. - The company is also working with emerging computing forces like Muxi and Jiyuan to validate the potential of new architecture chips in specific high-difficulty tasks, establishing comprehensive cooperation for industry expansion [14][15]. Group 5: Application and Commercialization - SenseTime's strategy encompasses a full-stack ecosystem from large devices to multimodal models and end-user applications, addressing the critical infrastructure challenges in AI localization [16][25]. - The AI office application "Little Raccoon" exemplifies the successful adaptation of domestic chips, breaking the stereotype that domestic computing power cannot be effectively utilized at the terminal level [26]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The company aims to transform the grand narrative of "computing localization" into tangible productivity tools accessible to everyone, emphasizing the importance of application-level delivery in building confidence in the domestic AI industry [27].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of domestic AI is marked by significant advancements in GPU technology, with companies like Moer Thread and Muxi achieving remarkable stock performance, indicating a growing recognition of domestic computing power in the AI sector [2] Group 1: Development of Domestic AI - Domestic computing power has evolved from a backup option to a comprehensive system encompassing hardware, models, and applications, laying the groundwork for future ecological development [2] - The release of SenseTime's Seko 2.0 and its compatibility with Cambricon's technology signifies a new phase in the domestic AI ecosystem, moving from mere compatibility to enhanced utility and collaborative applications [2][5] Group 2: Model Adaptation as a Foundation - Model adaptation is crucial for the domestic AI sector, with companies like SenseTime investing in hardware compatibility since 2020 to ensure effective model and computing power integration [4][5] - The successful adaptation of various domestic chips with SenseTime's SenseCore demonstrates the scalability and commercial viability of domestic computing power [5][6] Group 3: Application Development Challenges - The primary bottleneck for domestic AI lies in application development, as existing computing power and models have not yet translated into significant product performance improvements [10] - By 2025, it is projected that domestic AI computing power investments will reach 450 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated for domestic chip validation and adaptation [11] Group 4: Future of Domestic AI Ecosystem - The domestic AI ecosystem is transitioning from a "backup" solution to a complete technological framework, requiring stronger hardware, model libraries, and community support [14][16] - The establishment of the "SenseTime Power Mall" aims to create a flexible product matrix for domestic AI, facilitating the integration and adaptation of various computing resources and services [15]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the evolving export control policies between China and the United States, particularly in the context of strategic competition and geopolitical tensions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Current State of US-China Relations**: The relationship has seen a temporary easing, but the long-term strategic competition remains unchanged, with high risks of tightening export control policies [1][10][21]. 2. **Export Control Risks**: Despite a pause in the implementation of new rare earth regulations announced in October, existing measures from April remain effective, indicating a strategic tightening rather than a complete abandonment of control [1][12][23]. 3. **Three Scenarios for US-China Relations**: - **Baseline Scenario**: A one-year "ceasefire" agreement is expected to marginally benefit the economy and stock market, with a potential 10 basis point increase in actual GDP growth due to tariff reductions [1][15]. - **Pessimistic Scenario**: An early breakdown of the ceasefire could lead to increased tariffs and non-tariff barriers, resulting in a decline in the MSCI China index's forward P/E ratio below 12 times [2][17]. - **Optimistic Scenario**: A framework agreement could improve economic conditions, with the MSCI China index potentially exceeding a forward P/E ratio of 14 times [2][20]. 4. **Impact on Key Sectors**: The AI and technology sectors are expected to face short-term pressures but may benefit from China's push for technological self-sufficiency in the medium term [18][19]. 5. **Geopolitical Strategy**: China is likely to use export controls as a strategic tool in its geopolitical negotiations, particularly in critical materials like rare earths, to counter US technology restrictions [11][24][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Strategic Competition**: The ongoing competitive dynamics between the US and China suggest that temporary agreements may not lead to lasting resolutions, with periodic tensions expected to continue [11][22]. 2. **China's Export Control Framework**: The evolution of China's export control laws indicates a shift towards a more structured and strategic approach to managing critical materials, which could impact global supply chains [26]. 3. **Market Sentiment and Valuation**: The report suggests that improved market sentiment could stabilize valuations, with the MSCI China index maintaining a forward P/E ratio in line with emerging markets [15][20]. 4. **Technological Self-sufficiency Challenges**: China's current low self-sufficiency rates in critical technology sectors, such as EDA software, highlight vulnerabilities that could be exacerbated by US export controls [27]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape and future implications for investors and stakeholders in the context of US-China relations and export controls.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings that were slightly above expectations, with a revenue of 1.612 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.04% [2][3]. - The company is benefiting significantly from the recovery in the packaging and testing industry, as well as the continued growth of digital products such as SoC and CIS [3]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 reached 438 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207%, nearing the upper limit of the earnings forecast [4]. - The demand for SoC testing machines has surged due to AI developments, positioning the company to benefit from domestic AI production and storage expansion [5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue was 3.779 billion yuan, up 49.05% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 1.612 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 438 million yuan, with a significant increase in profit margins despite a slight decline in gross margin due to product mix changes [4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 5.098 billion, 6.971 billion, and 8.921 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.0%, 36.7%, and 28.0% [6]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.108 billion, 1.600 billion, and 2.005 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 141.8%, 44.4%, and 25.3% [6]. Valuation Metrics - As of October 29, 2025, the company's stock price was 92.52 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 53, 36, and 29 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the semiconductor sector, highlighting the increasing domestic capabilities in the AI supply chain and a clear price increase cycle in storage [1][6]. Market Review - In September 2025, the SW semiconductor index rose by 14.07%, outperforming the electronic industry by 3.10 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 10.86 percentage points [3][13]. - The semiconductor equipment sector saw the highest increase at +27.82%, followed by semiconductor materials at +14.72% [3][19]. - The current PE (TTM) for the SW semiconductor index is 118.97x, placing it at the 91.58 percentile since 2019, indicating a relatively high valuation [3][23]. Industry Data Update - Global semiconductor sales reached $64.88 billion in August 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.4% [5][40]. - The sales in China were $17.63 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [5][41]. - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash have continued to rise, with forecasts indicating a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13%-18% for DRAM and 5%-10% for NAND Flash in Q4 2025 [5][47]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strengthening of domestic AI chip manufacturers, recommending companies such as Cambrian, Aojie Technology, and others in the AI supply chain [6][7]. - The storage chip market is expected to benefit from rising prices and increased demand driven by AI applications, with recommendations for domestic storage manufacturers like Jiangbolong and Demingli [6][7]. - The report also notes the initiation of anti-dumping investigations into imported analog chips from the U.S., which may enhance price competition and accelerate domestic substitution [6][7]. Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, the proportion of semiconductor holdings in active funds was 10.1%, with a market value of 252.7 billion yuan [4][30]. - The top five semiconductor stocks accounted for 37.1% of the top twenty holdings, slightly down from 37.9% in the previous quarter [4][37]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with SMIC expected to have a net profit of 5.76 billion yuan in 2025, translating to a PE of 149 [7]. - Other companies like Huahong Semiconductor and Jiewa Technology are also highlighted with their respective earnings and valuations [7].

Group 1 - The global market is influenced by complex geopolitical environments, rapid technological advancements, and sector rotations, which will shape the economic outlook for the second half of 2025 [1] - DeepSeek has emerged as a star in the technology sector, showcasing breakthrough achievements in artificial intelligence that have positively impacted its business and the broader tech industry [3] - The innovative drug sector has gained significant attention, driven by increasing health awareness and demand for medical advancements, leading to substantial investments and rising market valuations [3] Group 2 - Foreign investment sentiment towards the Chinese market is optimistic, driven by a large consumer base, improved business environment, and ongoing technological innovation [5] - The Anhui Hotel and Homestay Expo, scheduled for October 24-26, 2025, will highlight new opportunities in the consumption sector, particularly in the tourism and hospitality industry [5] - The expo will feature over 300 exhibitors and showcase comprehensive solutions across various segments of the homestay industry, reflecting the growing demand for tourism-related services [5] Group 3 - Smart facilities showcased at the expo, such as intelligent check-in systems and environmental control systems, enhance customer experience and support the digital transformation of the hospitality industry [7] - The integration of traditional Chinese medicine elements into hotel services, such as specialized wellness facilities, caters to consumer health trends and differentiates offerings in the competitive market [7] Group 4 - The technology sector is expected to remain a key driver of economic growth, with advancements in AI and quantum computing anticipated to achieve commercial breakthroughs [9] - Shifts in consumer behavior towards service, personalized, and experiential consumption will continue to energize the market, alongside the growth of cultural tourism [9] - Long-term special government bonds will support infrastructure and emerging industries, such as high-end equipment and smart manufacturing, contributing to economic expansion [9] Group 5 - Despite uncertainties like geopolitical risks and trade tensions, China's economy shows strong potential for growth, supported by robust internal dynamics and proactive fiscal policies [11] - Identifying and investing in key sectors such as technology, consumption, and industrial upgrades will provide competitive advantages in the evolving market landscape [11] - Industry events like the Anhui Hotel and Homestay Expo will foster innovation and collaboration, aiding in the high-quality development of various sectors [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the computer industry, highlighting the ongoing advancements in AI technology and its applications [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant developments in AI technology showcased at various global tech conferences, indicating a new era of AI applications and opportunities [11][12]. - It notes the emergence of domestic AI products, marking the beginning of an "AI localization" trend in China, with companies like Kunlun Wanwei and Kingdee International leading the charge [45][49]. Summary by Sections Global Tech Conferences - Major tech events have focused on AI advancements, with companies like Microsoft and Google unveiling new AI tools and platforms [11]. - The Microsoft Build conference highlighted the integration of AI agents into their services, showcasing a shift towards autonomous AI capabilities [13][16]. - Google I/O introduced the upgraded Gemini model, enhancing AI's role in core business functions [20][21]. Overseas Developments - Microsoft showcased its "Agentic AI" strategy, emphasizing the development of AI agents capable of autonomous operations [13][19]. - Google announced the integration of AI agents into its search and assistant services, enhancing user interaction and functionality [20][22]. - Anthropic's Claude 4 model demonstrated significant advancements in programming capabilities, marking a shift from AI as a tool to a collaborative partner in software development [26][28]. Domestic Developments - Kunlun Wanwei launched the Skywork Super Agents, a multi-modal AI system that integrates various functionalities for document and content generation [45][46]. - Kingdee International introduced its five AI agents, enhancing enterprise management through intelligent data analysis and automation [49][50]. - The report highlights the "AIGO" methodology proposed by Kingdee for systematic AI transformation in enterprises, emphasizing a structured approach to AI integration [59][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on enterprise-level AI services and applications across various sectors, including finance, education, and healthcare, indicating a broad range of investment opportunities [7][8].

Core Insights - The strategic merger aims to optimize the industrial layout from chips to software and systems, enhancing the collaboration across the information industry chain [1] - The merger is expected to deepen the integration of leading domestic information industry resources, focusing on R&D, supply chain, and market sales to enhance competitiveness in high-end chip and solution development [1] - The combined entity will benefit from scale effects, improving profitability and establishing a solid capital foundation for long-term development [1] Industry Trends - The merger aligns with the global trend of extending industrial chains, facilitating the creation of competitive innovative enterprises [1] - It supports the national strategic needs by promoting the integration and localization of the computing power industry [1] - The enhanced technical strength and market competitiveness post-merger will significantly expand business prospects [1]