Core Viewpoint - Koyuan Smart is a leading provider of industrial automation, information technology, and intelligent solutions in China, focusing on product research, development, and sales, with a strong emphasis on innovation and smart industrial solutions [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Koyuan Smart reported revenue of 1.353 billion yuan, ranking 38th out of 131 in the industry, significantly lower than the top competitor, Digital China, which had 102.365 billion yuan [2] - The company's net profit for the same period was 218 million yuan, ranking 14th in the industry, again lower than the leading competitor, Unisplendour, which reported 1.723 billion yuan [2] - The main business segments include industrial automation with revenue of 801 million yuan (81.72% of total), industrial internet and software at 136 million yuan (13.90%), and industrial robotics at 33.446 million yuan (3.41%) [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Koyuan Smart's debt-to-asset ratio was 38.44%, down from 41.47% year-on-year and below the industry average of 38.93%, indicating improved debt repayment capability [3] - The gross profit margin for the same period was 40.84%, slightly up from 40.82% year-on-year and significantly higher than the industry average of 29.96%, reflecting strong profitability [3] Group 3: Executive Compensation - The chairman, Liu Guoyao, received a salary of 848,500 yuan in 2024, an increase of 50,300 yuan from 2023 [4] - The president, Hu Shemei, earned 862,900 yuan in 2024, up by 62,600 yuan from the previous year [4] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 4.79% to 26,200, while the average number of shares held per shareholder decreased by 4.57% to 5,404.81 shares [5] - Notable changes among the top ten shareholders include an increase in holdings by Huaxia CSI Robotics ETF and the entry of new shareholders like Tianhong Yongli Bond A [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts from Hualong Securities noted significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with improved cost control and accelerated downstream demand [6] - The company is focusing on integrating industrial AI with its expertise to create a second growth curve and is actively developing embodied intelligent product lines [6] - Projections for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 320 million, 403 million, and 514 million yuan, respectively, with a maintained "buy" rating from analysts [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the concept of "Lighthouse Factories," which are leading the intelligent upgrade of the manufacturing industry by integrating advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, IoT, and big data analytics [6]. - A total of 201 factories have been recognized as Lighthouse Factories globally, with 85 located in China, showcasing their exceptional manufacturing capabilities and performance in areas like production efficiency and supply chain resilience [6]. - Industrial software is identified as the digital foundation for Lighthouse Factories, playing a crucial role in enhancing production intelligence and efficiency across four core areas: R&D design, manufacturing, operational management, and maintenance services [6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned to benefit from the growth of industrial software and intelligent manufacturing, including Zhongwang Software, Huada Jiutian, and Yonyou Network, among others [6]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 337 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 60,881.53 billion and a circulating market value of about 55,021.98 billion [3]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 12 months has been 52.1%, while the relative performance against the benchmark index has improved by 33.9% [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. President announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, along with export controls on "critical software" [1] - Critical software includes operating systems, databases, and various industrial software, highlighting its strategic importance in national security and economic stability [1] - The move is expected to accelerate the domestic production of industrial and foundational software in China, as the country seeks to enhance its self-sufficiency in technology [1][2] Group 2 - The "信创" (Xinchuang) industry is transitioning from policy-driven to a dual-driven approach of policy and market, with significant growth expected in the coming years [2] - By 2026, the market size of the 信创 industry is projected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, with growth rates of 17.84% and 26.82% anticipated for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - Government procurement standards are being refined to support the replacement of foreign technology with domestic alternatives [2] Group 3 - The domestic software sector is experiencing active trading, with the 信创 ETF fund showing a price increase of over 3.1% at one point, indicating strong buying interest [4] - Key stocks in the sector, such as 华大九天 and 麒麟信安, have seen significant price increases, reflecting investor confidence in the domestic software market [4] - The 大数据产业 ETF is also showing positive performance, with stocks like 中国软件 and 中国长城 experiencing notable gains [6] Group 4 - The 信创 ETF fund tracks the core segments of the 信创 industry, which includes foundational hardware, software, and information security, and is characterized by high growth potential [8] - The current geopolitical climate and the push for self-sufficiency in technology are driving the demand for domestic solutions in the 信创 sector [8] - The 大数据产业 ETF focuses on data centers and cloud computing, with a strong emphasis on companies that are leading in the technology self-reliance movement [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active performance of domestic software stocks, particularly in the industrial software and Xinchuang sectors, with several companies reaching new highs in 2023 [5]. Group 1: Industrial Software Market - Industrial design software is described as the "soul" and "brain" of modern industry, encompassing critical software that supports national key sectors and ensures system security [6]. - The Chinese industrial software market reached a scale of 282.4 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.20% from 2019 to 2023. It is projected to grow to 319.7 billion yuan in 2024 and 339.0 billion yuan in 2025 [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - Huada Jiutian (301269.SZ) reported a revenue of 502 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.01%, but a net profit of 3.07 million yuan, down 91.90% [6]. - Guanglian Da (002410.SZ) had a revenue of 2.784 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5.23%, while its net profit increased by 23.65% to 237 million yuan [6]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) achieved a revenue of 20.51 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 26.7%, with a net profit of 2.97 billion yuan, an increase of 40% [7]. - Kingsoft (3888.HK) reported a second-quarter revenue of 2.307 billion yuan, down 6.7%, but a net profit of 532 million yuan, up 35.4% [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The domestic EDA industry has entered a turbulent period since the end of 2024, presenting significant opportunities for related companies [7]. - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that the industrial design software sector has the largest growth potential, while the overall scale of the basic software sector is more substantial [7].

Group 1 - The trend of domestic chip import substitution is becoming evident, creating a more favorable development environment for domestic EDA companies [1][4] - In the A-share market, domestic software concepts are actively rising, with industrial software and Xinchuang sectors leading the gains, including stocks like China Software and Rongji Software hitting the daily limit [3][4] - The industrial design software sector is crucial for modern industry, encompassing key software types such as operating systems and various industrial software like CAD, CAE, CAM, and EDA [3][4] Group 2 - Huada Jiutian (301269.SZ) reported a revenue of 502 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.01%, but a net profit of 3.07 million yuan, down 91.90% year-on-year [3][4] - Guanglian Da (002410.SZ) saw a revenue of 2.784 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5.23%, while net profit increased by 23.65% to 237 million yuan [4] - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) achieved a revenue of 20.51 billion yuan, up 26.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.97 billion yuan, a 40% increase [4] Group 3 - The domestic EDA industry is entering a turbulent period since the end of 2024, presenting significant opportunities for related companies [4] - The industrial software market in China reached a scale of 282.4 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.20% from 2019 to 2023, and is expected to grow to 319.7 billion yuan in 2024 and 339 billion yuan in 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the computer industry in China, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Insights - The U.S. plans to impose export controls on "critical software," which includes both foundational and industrial software, highlighting its strategic importance in the ongoing U.S.-China technological competition [9]. - The domestic market for industrial design software is expected to accelerate its localization process due to potential U.S. export restrictions, with significant growth opportunities identified in this area [3][9]. - The report emphasizes that while industrial design software has a low localization rate, the industrial control systems have a relatively higher domestic market share, particularly in DCS systems [9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that if the U.S. imposes export controls on foundational software, it will significantly boost the localization of industrial and foundational software. Key investment targets include: - Industrial Software: Zhongwang Software (688083, Buy), Huada Jiutian (301269, Buy), and others [3]. - Foundational Software: Dameng Data (688692, Not Rated), Dongtu Technology (300353, Not Rated), and others [3]. Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic significance of critical software, which includes operating systems and databases, and notes that the domestic market share for PC operating systems has reached 20-25%, while server operating systems are at 40-50% [9]. - The report highlights that the localization rate for industrial operating systems is still low, at around 10-15%, but is expected to improve as domestic products gain traction [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, but it is making strategic breakthroughs in industrial AI and robotics, which are expected to open long-term growth opportunities [1][4] - The company is a leader in process industrial intelligent manufacturing and is expected to benefit from equipment upgrade policies and overseas expansion opportunities [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.92%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 354 million yuan, down 31.46% year-on-year [5] - The company’s exchange loss was 13.40 million yuan, compared to a gain of 3.01 million yuan in the first half of 2024 [5] - After excluding the impact of exchange losses, the adjusted net profit was 294 million yuan, a decline of 25.82% year-on-year [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revised profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 1.12 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.55 billion yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 1.41, 1.63, and 1.96 yuan per share [4][8] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 36.8, 31.9, and 26.5 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8] Market Opportunities - The demand for process industrial equipment is continuously increasing, with significant growth in the energy, building materials, and paper industries, showing year-on-year increases of 9.32%, 82.58%, and 77.56% respectively [6] - The company is expanding its international strategy, achieving significant breakthroughs in regions such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia, with notable progress in certification for core products in Saudi Arabia [6] Industrial AI and Robotics Development - The TPT software has entered a phase of large-scale application, generating revenue of 117 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with over 110 successful projects implemented in various industries [7] - The robotics business is also growing rapidly, with revenue of 110 million yuan in the first half of 2025 and new orders totaling 200 million yuan, surpassing the entire performance of 2024 [7]

Financial Performance - Company reported a total revenue of 980 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.78% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 136 million yuan, up 23.09% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 560 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.79% [1] - The gross profit margin was 39.15%, a decrease of 2.45% compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit margin slightly increased to 13.96%, up 0.1% year-on-year [1] - Total operating expenses were 146 million yuan, accounting for 14.88% of revenue, down 9.0% year-on-year [1] Cash Flow and Receivables - The company reported a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, with a net change of 39.74% due to increased collections [2] - Accounts receivable reached 773 million yuan, which is 306.8% of the net profit, indicating a high level of receivables relative to profit [1][5] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents decreased by 267.37% due to investments in financial products [2] Market Position and Products - The company’s main products include DCS and large PLC systems, primarily serving the energy, power, and chemical industries [4] - The DCS market is experiencing rapid growth, with a domestic penetration rate of 43% in the thermal power sector [4] - The potential market for PLC products in the steel industry is estimated at around 70 billion yuan, driven by national policies promoting domestic control [4] Investment and Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding in the company is the招商中证2000指数增强A, which has a scale of 321 million yuan and has seen a 99.35% increase over the past year [4] - New investments in the company have been made by several funds, indicating growing interest from institutional investors [4] Historical Performance and Ratios - The company’s historical return on invested capital (ROIC) was 12.55% last year, with a median ROIC of 4.97% over the past decade [2] - The company has experienced a significant drop in ROIC in 2022, which was -25.68%, indicating past performance volatility [2]

Core Insights - The industrial control system (ICS) industry in China is undergoing a strategic transformation from traditional automation to intelligent and autonomous systems, driven by policy guidance and technological innovation, resulting in a market size of over 300 billion yuan with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 10% [1][6][14] - The market structure shows a clear distinction where foreign companies dominate the high-end market while domestic firms are rising in the mid-range segment, with significant advancements in localization [1][20] Industry Overview - ICS refers to the combination of hardware and software used to monitor, control, and manage industrial production processes, ensuring safety, efficiency, and stability [2] - The main categories of ICS include SCADA, DCS, PLC, RTU, and SIS, with further segmentation by industry and control levels [2] Development Background - The Chinese government has prioritized the development of ICS, implementing various policies to enhance network security, data management, and digital transformation, thereby supporting the industry's shift towards autonomy and intelligence [8][9] Industry Chain - The ICS industry has established a complete ecosystem, with upstream focusing on core components and software, midstream on manufacturing and system integration, and downstream applications in diverse sectors like renewable energy and smart manufacturing [10] Current Market Analysis - The ICS market in China is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to reach 320 billion yuan by 2025, driven by policy support and technological advancements [14] - The DCS market is expected to reach 14.8 billion yuan in 2024, with over 95% penetration in the petrochemical and power sectors [17] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by foreign companies leading the high-end market, while domestic firms like Inovance Technology and Zhongkong Technology are gaining ground in the mid-range market [20][21] - Siemens holds a 48% market share in the PLC sector, while domestic companies are achieving significant localization breakthroughs [20] Future Trends - The ICS industry is moving towards intelligent upgrades driven by technology integration, with AI and edge computing enhancing system capabilities [24] - The push for localization and global expansion is accelerating, with domestic companies expected to increase their international market share significantly by 2030 [26] - Safety and sustainability are becoming core competitive factors, with a focus on reducing energy consumption and enhancing cybersecurity measures [27]

Core Viewpoint - The report by McKinsey highlights the accelerating transformation of the global smart manufacturing and industrial automation industry, driven by advancements in Industry 4.0 and generative AI technologies, with China, Japan, and Western Europe expected to lead the automation revolution by 2030 [12][15]. Industry Overview - The global industrial automation market is projected to reach approximately $108.3 billion by 2025, with China's market exceeding 250 billion RMB, accounting for over one-third of the global market [2][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policies such as the "14th Five-Year Plan for Intelligent Manufacturing" in promoting digital transformation and intelligent upgrades in China's manufacturing sector [13]. Key Trends and Directions - The report identifies three major technological trends: platformization, agility, and intelligence, along with ten key technological development directions that will drive advancements in industrial automation and smart manufacturing [2][8]. - The trends include the establishment of software-defined intelligent manufacturing platforms, model-driven design approaches, and the integration of artificial intelligence and low-code/no-code development tools [4][6][7]. Market Segmentation - The industrial automation market is segmented into continuous flow manufacturing and discrete manufacturing, with significant growth potential in both areas. Continuous flow manufacturing is expected to see spending reach approximately $76 billion by 2025, while discrete manufacturing is experiencing faster growth rates [16][17]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of industrial IoT software and cloud services, which are projected to grow at a rate of 18% [33]. Challenges and Opportunities - The global manufacturing industry faces unprecedented risks, including trade tensions and economic slowdowns, which necessitate a reevaluation of production and supply chain strategies [14]. - The report suggests that leveraging industrial automation can enhance production efficiency and address these challenges, positioning companies to better navigate the evolving landscape [15]. Technological Innovations - Key technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual PLCs, digital twins, and low-code/no-code development are significantly enhancing the performance of industrial automation and robotics [2][36]. - The integration of multi-source heterogeneous data is crucial for achieving product quality and operational efficiency, enabling a more data-driven approach to manufacturing [47][48]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the global and Chinese industrial automation markets will experience accelerated growth over the next five years, driven by labor market changes and technological breakthroughs [33][34]. - By 2030, it is expected that 8 billion jobs globally could be replaced by machines due to advancements in automation and AI technologies [35].