这个产业规律 ， 暗示着 ， 信息产业进入稳定成长期 ， 软件和服务商的估值远远超越硬件厂商 。 如今 ， 人工智能浪潮席卷全球 ， 算力成为 新时代的 " 石油 " ， 大模型成为基础设施 。 站在 AI 时代的十字路口 ， 我们再次目睹巨头格局的剧烈重构 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 闷得而蜜 来源：雪球 历史回顾 互联网时代 ， 成就了谷歌 、 facebook ， 思科跌下神坛 。 云计算时代 ， 成就了微软 、 亚马逊 ， Intel跌下神坛 。 移动互联网时代 ， 成就了苹果 ， 高通跌下神坛 。 IT行业有条铁律 ： 每一美元的硬件 ， 必须产生十美元的软件和服务收入 。 英伟达 ， 凭借 GPU 在并行计算上的天然优势 ， 一跃成为 AI 训练的 " 卖铲人 " ， 市值一度超越苹果 、 微软 ， 登顶全球第一 。 它的成功 ， 看似打破了 " 一美元硬件难敌十美元软件 " 的铁律 。 而谷歌 ， 作为 AI 领域的长期布道者 —— 从 2014 年收购 DeepMind ， 到 2017 ...

近期，AI芯片领域风云突变，谷歌与英伟达之间的"暗战"逐渐浮出水面。一场关于技术主导权、市场份额与未来生态的博弈，正在重塑全球AI基础设施的格 局，而投资和或可把握其中布局机会。 一、英伟达罕见"安抚"市场：股价暴跌后的危机公关 报告指出，这一闭环正在转化为实打实的财务回报：TPU部署大幅降低推理成本，搜索市场份额企稳回升至90%以上，充沛的广告现金流为高强度的资本开 支提供了充足弹药。 从市场表现看，Alphabet的股价表现已经充分反映了市场的转向。在过去一年中，Alphabet的回报率高达近82%，甚至超过了英伟达的27%的涨幅。在同样 经历波动的科技股中，Alphabet表现出更强的韧性。 美东时间11月25日午盘，英伟达在社交媒体平台X发布一则声明，语气罕见地"温和"："我们为谷歌在AI领域取得的成就感到高兴。英伟达将继续为谷歌提 供产品支持。我们仍是唯一能够运行所有AI模型、适配所有计算场景的通用平台，领先行业整整一代。" 这番话背后，是英伟达股价当日大跌超7%，市值蒸发数千亿美元。市场担忧的焦点在于：谷歌自研芯片TPU的崛起，是否正在动摇英伟达在AI算力领域的 绝对霸主地位？ 英伟达此次主动发声 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia reported record revenue of $57.01 billion for Q3 FY2026, a 62% year-over-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations [3][5] - The company provided a strong revenue guidance of $65 billion for Q4 FY2026, indicating robust growth momentum [3][7] - The Blackwell platform is a major revenue driver, with GB300 accounting for two-thirds of Blackwell's total revenue, and demand for cloud GPUs has outstripped supply [3][6][7] - The next-generation Rubin platform is progressing as planned, with the first chip delivered and mass production expected in FY2026 [3][6] - Software and services, particularly AI Enterprise and DGX Cloud, are experiencing significant growth, enhancing revenue visibility and resilience [3][6] Financial Performance - Revenue reached $57.01 billion, up 62% year-over-year and 22% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the market expectation of $55.19 billion [5] - Net profit was $31.9 billion, reflecting a 65% year-over-year increase [5] - Gross margin was reported at 73.4% (GAAP) and 73.6% (non-GAAP) [5] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.30 (non-GAAP) [5] Business Segment Performance - Data center revenue was $51.2 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase [6] - Gaming/AI PC business generated $4.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year [6] - Professional visualization revenue reached $760 million, a 56% year-over-year increase [6] - Automotive and robotics revenue was $592 million, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth [6] Future Guidance - The company expects Q4 revenue to be $65 billion (±2%) [7] - Non-GAAP gross margin guidance is set at 75.0% (±50 basis points), significantly above market expectations [7] Business Highlights and Strategic Direction - Demand for data center products remains strong, with supply being a key focus [7] - CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the emergence of new AI model manufacturers and startups across various industries and countries [7] - Nvidia is positioned as a leader in AI infrastructure, with a comprehensive system offering beyond just chip sales [10][12] Management Commentary - CEO Jensen Huang noted that computational demand in training and inference is accelerating, creating a compounding effect [11] - CFO Colette Kress confirmed that demand for AI infrastructure continues to exceed expectations and projected a gross margin of around 70% by FY2027 [12] - Management addressed investor concerns about sustainability of growth, indicating that demand is accelerating and new applications are emerging [13] - Inventory levels have increased, but management clarified that this is likely a strategic move to prepare for future demand rather than a sign of weakening demand [15]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has become the first publicly traded company in the world to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion, reflecting its dominant position in the AI sector and raising questions about whether this valuation represents a new benchmark or an "AI bubble" [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nvidia's stock price increased by 3% to $207.04, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 50% [1]. - The company's market capitalization reached $5.03 trillion, marking a significant milestone in its valuation history [1][6]. - Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, Nvidia's stock has surged approximately 11 times, indicating strong investor confidence in its growth potential [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The surge in Nvidia's market value is attributed to the explosive global demand for AI, positioning Nvidia as a key supplier in the AI "arms race" [2]. - Nvidia's AI chips, particularly the H100, are in high demand, with companies needing to place orders months in advance due to supply constraints [2][3]. - Major cloud computing companies are projected to increase capital expenditures significantly, indicating sustained demand for Nvidia's products [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's competitive advantage is bolstered by its CUDA software ecosystem, which creates a high barrier to entry for competitors like AMD and Intel [2]. - Despite losing its market share in China, Nvidia is still expected to find growth opportunities in other global markets [3][5]. - The company faces increasing competition from emerging players in the AI chip market, particularly from Chinese firms [7]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Analysts have mixed views on whether Nvidia's valuation is justified, with some suggesting that the AI bubble has not yet burst [6][7]. - Nvidia's current price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 33 times its expected earnings, compared to the S&P 500 average of about 24 times, raising concerns about its high valuation [7]. - The potential for challenges in AI commercialization and regulatory issues could impact Nvidia's future growth trajectory [7].

Core Insights - Nvidia and Uber are collaborating to enhance autonomous driving technology, resulting in a 3.5% increase in Uber's stock price [1] Partnership Overview - The partnership focuses on utilizing Nvidia's Cosmos World AI model, which will be trained with Uber's extensive real-world driving data, including various driving scenarios [2] - The collaboration aims to improve simulation precision, accelerate post-training iterations, and ensure reliable model behavior in challenging conditions [2] Technological Framework - Nvidia's broader strategy for AI-enabled driving includes leveraging foundation models that utilize extensive datasets for better generalization in driving scenarios [3] - End-to-end architectures are designed to process sensor inputs directly into driving decisions, enhancing performance and reducing complexity [3] Simulation Capabilities - Nvidia's simulation technologies, such as Cosmos Predict and Transfer systems, allow for the generation of diverse driving conditions, enabling virtual practice for autonomous vehicles [4] - These capabilities are supported by Nvidia's DRIVE and DGX platforms, which facilitate the training, testing, and deployment of AI driving models [4] AI Integration - The collaboration signifies a growing integration between AI and mobility sectors, with Nvidia embedding AI infrastructure into automotive systems and Uber evolving its logistics and mobility platforms [6]

Group 1: Nvidia and Executive Actions - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sold over $110 million worth of shares in October, which some interpret as a high-level cash-out, but it may indicate strategic positioning for future developments [3] - Following Huang's recent stock sale, Nvidia announced a significant order for 1.5 million H200 chips from Saudi Arabia, suggesting that the sale was part of a broader strategic plan rather than a simple exit [3] - Huang's stock sale represents less than 0.1% of Nvidia's total shares, and he still holds 70.6 million shares, indicating that this action may be more about tax strategy and ecosystem investment [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Market Collapse - On October 11, a significant market crash occurred in the Bitcoin sector, with $19 billion in liquidations affecting 1.64 million accounts, causing Bitcoin's price to drop from $120,000 to around $110,000 [4] - The crash was exacerbated by high funding rates above 0.15% prior to the event and a sudden increase in global risk aversion following Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China [4] - Post-crash, Bitcoin trading volume plummeted by 70%, indicating a severe liquidity crisis in the market [4] Group 3: China's Export Controls - On October 9, China implemented export controls on rare earth materials and related technologies, particularly targeting medium and heavy rare earths and semiconductor manufacturing technologies below 14 nanometers [4] - This move is seen as a strategic maneuver rather than a mere trade war response, as China controls 70% of global rare earth processing capacity, which is critical for military applications [4] - The export controls also apply to rare earth products produced overseas using Chinese technology, significantly impacting U.S. defense contractors that rely on Chinese rare earths for 75% of their critical components [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The overarching themes from these developments include the competition for technological supremacy and a potential turning point in global liquidity, with expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts amid increasing internal divisions [4] - For long-term investors, focusing on sectors with high earnings certainty, such as Northern Rare Earth, which saw a 272% profit increase in the first three quarters due to rising rare earth prices, is advisable [4] - The narrative of domestic GPU replacement is just beginning, with companies like Moore Threads gaining traction, highlighting the importance of maintaining a clear perspective during market fluctuations [4]

Core Insights - Nvidia has strong relationships with major tech companies, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, as well as rising stars like CoreWeave [1][2] - Nvidia's DGX Cloud, launched in 2023, was intended for enterprises to access AI supercomputers but is reportedly being used primarily for internal purposes now [4][5] - The company is shifting focus from DGX Cloud to its Lepton GPU rental marketplace, which connects GPU cloud providers with AI developers [6] Market Dynamics - There are concerns that Nvidia's retreat from DGX Cloud could benefit major cloud service providers while harming CoreWeave, but evidence suggests otherwise [7] - CoreWeave has secured a $6.3 billion deal with Nvidia for unused cloud computing capacity through April 2032, indicating a strong partnership [8] - Nvidia's DGX Cloud is reportedly fully utilized and oversubscribed, contradicting claims of a retreat from the market [9] Future Outlook - The AI boom is expected to continue, driving demand for Nvidia's GPUs and benefiting cloud platforms from Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and CoreWeave [10] - Nvidia plans to launch a new class of GPUs, Rubin CPX, in late 2026, which could significantly enhance AI applications [11] - All five companies—Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and CoreWeave—are anticipated to deliver substantial gains over the next decade [12]

Core Insights - Nvidia is significantly underestimated despite its market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion, indicating a larger ambition beyond just AI chips [5] - The introduction of DGX Cloud in 2023 was a strategic move to rent high-end computing power, but by 2025, its role shifted to internal infrastructure rather than a primary product for enterprise markets [6][11] - The new platform, Lepton, launched in 2025, serves as a marketplace for GPU leasing and scheduling, redirecting focus from direct competition with major cloud providers to a more collaborative approach [11][23] Summary by Sections DGX Cloud and Market Dynamics - DGX Cloud initially gained traction, achieving an annualized revenue of $2 billion by the end of 2024, but faced challenges as GPU supply improved and competitors like AWS and Azure reduced prices by up to 45% [8][9] - The direct customer model of DGX Cloud created channel conflicts with major buyers like Amazon and Microsoft, leading to concerns about long-term partnerships and potential shifts towards self-developed chips by these companies [9][11] Transition to Lepton - Nvidia's strategy evolved to focus on Lepton, which connects AI developers with a network of GPU cloud providers without directly competing with them, thus mitigating risks associated with channel conflicts [11][23] - Lepton acts as a "marketplace" for computing power, allowing users to submit requests that are matched with available resources across various cloud providers, enhancing flexibility and efficiency [21][23] Nvidia's Ecosystem Strategy - Nvidia has been investing in cloud service providers like CoreWeave and Lambda, creating a cycle of selling chips, renting back computing power, and ensuring a stable cash flow for partners while maintaining control over critical resources [13][15][19] - The approach of leveraging partnerships while maintaining a stronghold on the GPU market positions Nvidia as a central player in the AI ecosystem, akin to how Apple controls the mobile internet through the App Store [27][29] Future Outlook - The shift from hardware to a focus on "computing power" and "platform" indicates Nvidia's ambition to dominate the AI landscape, ensuring that regardless of where the computing occurs, Nvidia's technology remains integral [30]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's ambition to dominate the cloud computing space remains strong despite the withdrawal of its DGX Cloud service, as it shifts focus to a new platform called Lepton, which aims to connect AI developers with GPU cloud service providers [5][10][12]. Summary by Sections DGX Cloud and Its Transition - Nvidia's DGX Cloud was launched in 2023, offering high-end GPU instances for a monthly fee of $36,999, initially gaining traction in the market [5][7]. - By the end of 2024, Nvidia reported $2 billion in annualized revenue from software and services, including DGX Cloud [7]. - However, by mid-2024, the competitive landscape changed as major cloud providers like Amazon and Microsoft reduced prices for their GPU offerings, diminishing DGX Cloud's competitive edge [7][9]. - Nvidia decided to repurpose DGX Cloud for internal use rather than as a primary product for enterprise markets, indicating a strategic retreat [9][10]. Introduction of Lepton - In May 2025, Nvidia introduced Lepton, a platform designed to manage and distribute GPU resources without directly renting out its own GPUs [10][12]. - Lepton acts as a marketplace for computational power, directing user demands to appropriate cloud service providers, including AWS and Azure [19][20]. - This shift allows Nvidia to avoid direct competition with its major customers while still maintaining control over the ecosystem [22][23]. Strategic Partnerships and Investments - Nvidia has been investing in cloud service providers like CoreWeave and Lambda, creating a symbiotic relationship where it sells GPUs and then rents back computational power [15][16]. - This strategy allows Nvidia to secure immediate revenue from chip sales while ensuring access to necessary computational resources for its own development needs [16][17]. - Nvidia's venture capital arm, Nventures, invests in various AI startups, further embedding itself in the AI ecosystem and ensuring future demand for its chips [17]. Future Outlook and Market Position - Lepton is positioned to become a central hub for AI computational needs, similar to how Apple's App Store operates in the mobile internet space [25][26]. - By not owning a cloud service but controlling the computational resource marketplace, Nvidia aims to maintain its relevance and profitability in the evolving AI landscape [26]. - The company's transition from hardware to a focus on computational power and platform services reflects its broader ambitions in the AI era [26].

Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation against imported simulation chips from the United States, with evidence showing a price decline of over 300% during the investigation period [4][5] - The Ministry of Commerce also initiated a discrimination investigation regarding U.S. measures in the integrated circuit sector, citing a series of prohibitive actions that harm China's high-tech industry development [3][5] - The Central Bank reported that the total social financing increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] - The M2 balance reached 331.98 trillion yuan at the end of August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [3] - The automotive industry aims for a sales target of approximately 32.3 million units in 2025, with a growth rate of about 3% [7] Company News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is investigating Oriental Tong for serious financial fraud, with a proposed fine of 229 million yuan and a potential delisting due to significant violations [7] - Huibo Yuntong announced that its affiliate intends to acquire 22.0875% of Baode Computing's shares to gain control [9] - Zijin Mining's lithium subsidiary has launched a new project in Argentina, aiming for an annual production of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate [10]