但英镑空头无需美元多头助力，本周便可将英镑兑美元推至1.30下方。周三当瑞秋·里夫斯公布万众期待的秋季预算案时，她可能优雅地完成这项任务——届 时或将宣布大幅增税。目前无人知晓预算案具体内容，但她可能不得不增税高达300亿英镑。灾难性局面。本周我们持续关注英国面临的"五十度税"——个 人与企业层面皆然。坦白说，若增税幅度未达市场预期，我正等待本周晚些时候迷你预算危机的第二幕上演。 标普500与纳斯达克期货小幅上涨，因周五投资者情绪温和改善——纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及时泼冷水，重提短期内再度降息的可能性，为过热市场降温。 市场自然解读为12月降息信号。美国两年期国债收益率回落至3.50%，12月降息概率从本周初的29%以下飙升至70%。天啊！ 其他美联储成员反复强调，为防通胀怪兽苏醒四处喷火，当前更应保持观望。但事实并非如此——一位鸽派人士的表态，压倒了所有担忧通胀的同僚。当前 美国通胀率仍徘徊在3%附近，远超美联储官方目标。理论上，美联储本就不该在9月降息。有趣的是：在美联储今年最后一次会议召开前，我们甚至无法获 得最重要的通胀报告。因此他们只能坐等赌局。他们不会决策——只会押注。 与此同时，即便特朗普宣布降低 ...

邬贺铨院士的观点，与阿里巴巴过去数年在自研大模型上的投入不谋而合。据了解，千问APP所搭载的 Qwen3模型，正是阿里坚持技术自立的成果。自2023年全面开源以来，阿里的Qwen系列模型已超越 Meta的Llama等国际知名模型，成为全球性能最强、应用最广泛的开源大模型之一，全球下载量已突破 6亿次，为中国AI赢得了极高的行业声誉。 在亲身体验后，邬贺铨院士对千问APP的专业能力给予了高度肯定，称其"对科研问题理解到位、回答 专业，有耳目一新的感觉"。他希望中国的模型技术能够坚持走专业严谨的路线，持续迭代，并真正把 模型能力应用到实际场景中去。 千问APP的定位，除了提供聪明的聊天功能，更重要的发力方向是"能办事"，其最终战略目标是打造一 个未来的"AI生活入口"，将顶尖技术落到实处，服务于每个人的工作与生活。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 11月18消息，阿里巴巴千问APP近日开启公测，接入全球性能第一的开源模型Qwen3并免费开放。中国 工程院院士邬贺铨接受媒体采访表示，"作为一名科技工作者，我一直坚信一个道理：真正的关键技术 是买不来的，核心能力必须自理。大模型及相关系统不仅是前沿探索，更是关乎创新主动权的 ...

千问APP的定位，除了提供聪明的聊天功能，更重要的发力方向是"能办事"，其最终战略目标是打造一 个未来的"AI生活入口"，将顶尖技术落到实处，服务于每个人的工作与生活。 1月18消息，阿里巴巴千问APP近日开启公测，接入全球性能第一的开源模型Qwen3并免费开放。中国 工程院院士邬贺铨接受媒体采访表示，"作为一名科技工作者，我一直坚信一个道理：真正的关键技术 是买不来的，核心能力必须自理。大模型及相关系统不仅是前沿探索，更是关乎创新主动权的战略型基 础设施。" 在亲身体验后，邬贺铨院士对千问APP的专业能力给予了高度肯定，称其"对科研问题理解到位、回答 专业，有耳目一新的感觉"。他希望中国的模型技术能够坚持走专业严谨的路线，持续迭代，并真正把 模型能力应用到实际场景中去。 邬贺铨院士的观点，与阿里巴巴过去数年在自研大模型上的投入不谋而合。据了解，千问APP所搭载的 Qwen3模型，正是阿里坚持技术自立的成果。自2023年全面开源以来，阿里的Qwen系列模型已超越 Meta的Llama等国际知名模型，成为全球性能最强、应用最广泛的开源大模型之一，全球下载量已突破 6亿次，为中国AI赢得了极高的行业声誉。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is experiencing a rebound with significant inflows and positive performance from key ETFs [1][3] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513260) has seen a nearly 2% increase, reaching a new high with a total scale exceeding 69 billion HKD, and has attracted over 1.1 billion HKD in the last 10 days [3][5] - Major tech stocks such as Baidu, SMIC, Alibaba, and Meituan have shown strong gains, with Baidu rising over 11% following a strategic partnership announcement with China Merchants Group [5][6] Group 2 - Southbound capital has been flowing into Hong Kong tech stocks, with Alibaba leading the net inflow at over 30.3 billion HKD in the past week [6][7] - The AI sector is catalyzing growth, with companies like Alibaba and Baidu utilizing self-designed chips for AI model training, indicating a shift towards domestic technology [8] - The outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, driven by liquidity and structural support from technology, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank sectors [9][10] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently valued at about half of the Nasdaq, suggesting significant room for valuation recovery [15] - The market is expected to benefit from improved liquidity conditions, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing inflows from southbound capital [10][19] - The technology sector is identified as a primary focus for growth, with expectations for high growth driven by major internet companies and advancements in AI applications [15]

Group 1 - The report from Haitong International indicates that A-shares are expected to consolidate in September, while Hong Kong stocks may receive short-term support due to easing liquidity pressures and a strengthening RMB [1] - Last week, A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.1%. Hong Kong stocks also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index up by 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 5.3% [1] - Following the dovish signals from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, gold prices rebounded over 9%. However, recent US inflation data confirmed rate cut expectations, leading to fluctuations in gold prices [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that Alibaba's self-developed chips and the next-generation Qwen3 model have led to a significant rise in stock prices, indicating a continued increase in risk appetite [2] - The liquidity in Hong Kong remains stable, with the HIBOR maintaining stability. The RMB has appreciated moderately against the USD, although a potential rebound in the USD could weaken this support for Hong Kong stocks [2] - Southbound capital inflow surged to HKD 60.8 billion last week, with Alibaba receiving HKD 22 billion of this inflow, totaling HKD 37 billion since September [2]

Group 1 - The report from Haitong International indicates that A-shares are expected to consolidate in September, while Hong Kong stocks may receive short-term support due to easing liquidity pressures and a strengthening RMB [1] - A-shares experienced significant fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.1%. Hong Kong stocks also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index up by 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 5.3% [1] - The Jackson Hole meeting saw Powell release dovish signals, leading to a rebound in gold prices, which increased by over 9%. However, recent US inflation data confirmed rate cut expectations, causing gold prices to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - The liquidity in Hong Kong remains stable, with HIBOR maintaining stability. The RMB has appreciated moderately against the USD, but a potential rebound in the USD may weaken this support for Hong Kong stocks [2] - Southbound capital inflow surged to HKD 60.8 billion last week, with Alibaba receiving HKD 22 billion of inflow, totaling HKD 37 billion since September [2] - The report suggests that the market has fully priced in three rate cuts this year, leading to a strong rebound in A-share technology stocks, while Hong Kong stocks are boosted by Alibaba and Baidu [2]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that A-shares will consolidate in September to digest previous gains, while Hong Kong stocks are expected to receive a short-term boost due to easing liquidity pressures and a stronger RMB [1][8] - A-shares experienced sharp volatility, with the SSE Composite Index up 1.5% and the ChiNext Index rising 2.1%, while Hong Kong stocks saw a catch-up rally driven by U.S. AI stocks, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 5.3% [1][8] - Following dovish signals from Powell at Jackson Hole, gold rebounded over 9%, but U.S. inflation data confirmed rate-cut expectations, leading to gold entering a consolidation phase [2][9] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to pre-allocate part of the 2026 local government debt quota, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous practices [3][10] - August financial data showed weak credit demand, highlighting the need for stronger policy support, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced a growth stabilization plan for the auto sector [3][10] - In A-shares, tech stocks saw severe volatility at elevated levels, while real estate stocks strengthened, with a weekly increase of 6% following the easing of housing restrictions in major cities [4][11] Group 3 - Hong Kong stocks maintained stable liquidity, with HIBOR remaining stable and the RMB appreciating against the dollar, although potential dollar rebounds could weaken this support [5][11] - The AH premium index fell sharply to around 120 after adjustments, with significant southbound capital inflows, particularly into Alibaba, which attracted HKD 22 billion this week [5][11] - The report suggests that U.S. tech stocks rallied on strong Q3 earnings, driving rebounds in A-share tech and Hong Kong stocks, but warns that September trading is likely to remain choppy due to renewed U.S.-China trade frictions [6][13]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model: DeepSeek-R1 - **Model Construction Idea**: The DeepSeek-R1 model aims to innovate in AI technology by reducing dependency on high-end imported GPUs and enhancing cost-effectiveness and performance in global markets[5][12][30] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model is based on the DeepSeek-V3 architecture and applies reinforcement learning techniques during the post-training phase to significantly improve inference capabilities with minimal labeled data[33] - The model's performance in tasks such as mathematics, coding, and natural language inference is on par with OpenAI's o1 official version[33] - The team also introduced six distilled small models using knowledge distillation techniques, with the 32B and 70B versions surpassing OpenAI o1-mini in several capabilities[34] - The model's training cost was $5.576 million, only 1/10th of GPT-4o's training cost, and its API call cost is 1/30th of OpenAI's similar services[38] - **Formula**: $$ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}} $$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is highly cost-effective and adaptable to different application environments, breaking the traditional AI industry's reliance on "stacking computing power and capital"[38][43] Model Backtesting Results - **DeepSeek-R1 Model**: - **AIME pass@1**: 9.3 - **AIME cons@64**: 13.4 - **MATH-500 pass@1**: 74.6 - **GPQA Diamond pass@1**: 49.9 - **LiveCodeBench pass@1**: 32.9 - **CodeForces rating**: 759.0[36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: SUE is used to measure the growth potential and latest marginal changes in the prosperity of the industry and individual stocks[57] - **Factor Construction Process**: - SUE is calculated as: $$ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}} $$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - **Factor Evaluation**: SUE effectively measures future earnings growth and the latest marginal changes in prosperity, representing the future trend changes in the industry[57] Factor Backtesting Results - **SUE Factor**: - **2022**: -29.8% - **2023**: 15.9% - **2024**: 20.1% - **2025 YTD**: 11.0%[65]

Core Insights - The report highlights that a high level of crowding in sectors may indicate a peak in short-term sentiment, leading to potential downward adjustments in those sectors [2][6] - It emphasizes that sectors supported by industrial trends or strong policy backing are likely to recover and achieve excess returns after a period of emotional digestion [2][6] Market Review - The report notes that during the week of July 21-25, the overall A-share market rose by 2.65%, with significant performance from sectors like hydropower and rare earths [2][78] - The average daily trading volume reached 1.8398 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [2][78] - The report also mentions a notable increase in the number of stocks rising, with 2,941 stocks up compared to the previous week [2][78] Key Themes - **Childcare Subsidies**: The introduction of a national childcare subsidy policy is expected to stabilize birth rates and positively impact sectors such as maternal and infant products, early education, and assisted reproduction [3][95] - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The report discusses the government's efforts to eliminate excessive competition, which is anticipated to lead to an orderly exit of outdated production capacity and promote high-quality industry development [3][98] - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The report highlights that business development (BD) transactions are opening up growth opportunities for innovative pharmaceutical companies, supported by favorable policies [3][101] Policy Dynamics - The report outlines several recent policy initiatives aimed at optimizing state-owned asset allocation and promoting high-quality urban development [3][104] - It mentions the emphasis on improving the quality of competition in various industries, particularly in sectors facing issues with low-price competition [3][98] Industry Trends - **Artificial Intelligence**: The report notes advancements in AI technology, including the launch of new AI products and participation in global AI governance discussions [3][104] - **Robotics**: The introduction of new robotic products is highlighted, indicating growth in the robotics sector [3][104] - **Biopharmaceuticals**: The report states that the approval of innovative drugs has significantly increased, with 43 new drugs approved in the first half of the year, marking a 59% year-on-year increase [3][104]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Insights - AI applications are gradually entering the implementation phase, with the commercialization of AI Agent applications expected to accelerate across various fields [3] - The collective rise of domestic models in China is effectively boosting investor confidence, as recent developments show significant advancements in open-source models [8] - The core focus of model iterations is on programming and Agent capabilities, which are crucial for the practical application of AI [8] - The acceleration of AI application commercialization is evident, with major internet companies and enterprise service providers enhancing their core products with AI [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the rapid development of domestic AI models, with notable achievements in open-source rankings [8] - Key players in the AI space are focusing on enhancing programming and Agent capabilities, which are essential for future AI applications [8] Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in AI-related activities, with companies like Google and ByteDance reporting substantial growth in their AI services [8] - The domestic AI application cycle is slightly lagging behind the US, but the iteration of domestic models is expected to accelerate the rollout of various Agent applications [8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the enterprise service sector include Dingjie Zhizhi, Tax Friend Co., and Fanwei Network, among others [8] - Companies with strong advantages in vertical industry applications include Tuolisi, iFlytek, and Jiao Dian Technology [8] - For AI tool applications, companies such as Zhuoyi Information and Hongsoft Technology are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [8]