Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model: DeepSeek-R1 - **Model Construction Idea**: The DeepSeek-R1 model aims to innovate in AI technology by reducing dependency on high-end imported GPUs and enhancing cost-effectiveness and performance in global markets[5][12][30] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model is based on the DeepSeek-V3 architecture and applies reinforcement learning techniques during the post-training phase to significantly improve inference capabilities with minimal labeled data[33] - The model's performance in tasks such as mathematics, coding, and natural language inference is on par with OpenAI's o1 official version[33] - The team also introduced six distilled small models using knowledge distillation techniques, with the 32B and 70B versions surpassing OpenAI o1-mini in several capabilities[34] - The model's training cost was $5.576 million, only 1/10th of GPT-4o's training cost, and its API call cost is 1/30th of OpenAI's similar services[38] - **Formula**: $$ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}} $$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is highly cost-effective and adaptable to different application environments, breaking the traditional AI industry's reliance on "stacking computing power and capital"[38][43] Model Backtesting Results - **DeepSeek-R1 Model**: - **AIME pass@1**: 9.3 - **AIME cons@64**: 13.4 - **MATH-500 pass@1**: 74.6 - **GPQA Diamond pass@1**: 49.9 - **LiveCodeBench pass@1**: 32.9 - **CodeForces rating**: 759.0[36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: SUE is used to measure the growth potential and latest marginal changes in the prosperity of the industry and individual stocks[57] - **Factor Construction Process**: - SUE is calculated as: $$ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}} $$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - **Factor Evaluation**: SUE effectively measures future earnings growth and the latest marginal changes in prosperity, representing the future trend changes in the industry[57] Factor Backtesting Results - **SUE Factor**: - **2022**: -29.8% - **2023**: 15.9% - **2024**: 20.1% - **2025 YTD**: 11.0%[65]

Core Insights - The report highlights that a high level of crowding in sectors may indicate a peak in short-term sentiment, leading to potential downward adjustments in those sectors [2][6] - It emphasizes that sectors supported by industrial trends or strong policy backing are likely to recover and achieve excess returns after a period of emotional digestion [2][6] Market Review - The report notes that during the week of July 21-25, the overall A-share market rose by 2.65%, with significant performance from sectors like hydropower and rare earths [2][78] - The average daily trading volume reached 1.8398 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [2][78] - The report also mentions a notable increase in the number of stocks rising, with 2,941 stocks up compared to the previous week [2][78] Key Themes - **Childcare Subsidies**: The introduction of a national childcare subsidy policy is expected to stabilize birth rates and positively impact sectors such as maternal and infant products, early education, and assisted reproduction [3][95] - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The report discusses the government's efforts to eliminate excessive competition, which is anticipated to lead to an orderly exit of outdated production capacity and promote high-quality industry development [3][98] - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The report highlights that business development (BD) transactions are opening up growth opportunities for innovative pharmaceutical companies, supported by favorable policies [3][101] Policy Dynamics - The report outlines several recent policy initiatives aimed at optimizing state-owned asset allocation and promoting high-quality urban development [3][104] - It mentions the emphasis on improving the quality of competition in various industries, particularly in sectors facing issues with low-price competition [3][98] Industry Trends - **Artificial Intelligence**: The report notes advancements in AI technology, including the launch of new AI products and participation in global AI governance discussions [3][104] - **Robotics**: The introduction of new robotic products is highlighted, indicating growth in the robotics sector [3][104] - **Biopharmaceuticals**: The report states that the approval of innovative drugs has significantly increased, with 43 new drugs approved in the first half of the year, marking a 59% year-on-year increase [3][104]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Insights - AI applications are gradually entering the implementation phase, with the commercialization of AI Agent applications expected to accelerate across various fields [3] - The collective rise of domestic models in China is effectively boosting investor confidence, as recent developments show significant advancements in open-source models [8] - The core focus of model iterations is on programming and Agent capabilities, which are crucial for the practical application of AI [8] - The acceleration of AI application commercialization is evident, with major internet companies and enterprise service providers enhancing their core products with AI [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the rapid development of domestic AI models, with notable achievements in open-source rankings [8] - Key players in the AI space are focusing on enhancing programming and Agent capabilities, which are essential for future AI applications [8] Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in AI-related activities, with companies like Google and ByteDance reporting substantial growth in their AI services [8] - The domestic AI application cycle is slightly lagging behind the US, but the iteration of domestic models is expected to accelerate the rollout of various Agent applications [8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the enterprise service sector include Dingjie Zhizhi, Tax Friend Co., and Fanwei Network, among others [8] - Companies with strong advantages in vertical industry applications include Tuolisi, iFlytek, and Jiao Dian Technology [8] - For AI tool applications, companies such as Zhuoyi Information and Hongsoft Technology are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising interest and investment opportunities in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, driven by upcoming significant events and market movements in related stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Movements - On July 25, AI-related stocks such as Tianrun Technology, Yinsai Group, and Hanwang Technology saw significant price increases, with some hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [2]. - Major AI stocks like iFlytek and Kunlun Wanwei also showed strong performance, indicating a shift in market focus from previous themes like hydropower and Hainan [2]. - Data center stocks related to AI, including Hubei Broadcasting and Zhongdian Xindong, also experienced notable gains, reflecting a broader trend of investment moving towards AI [2]. Group 2: Upcoming Events - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference will take place from July 26 to 28, featuring over 800 participating companies and showcasing more than 3,000 cutting-edge exhibits, marking the largest scale in history [2]. - The conference will focus on the theme "Intelligent Era, Shared Future," with significant high-level attendance expected [2]. Group 3: Policy and Strategic Developments - The recent release of the AI Action Plan by the Trump administration aims to enhance the efficiency of the U.S. AI industry, promoting investment in AI infrastructure and applications [4]. - This plan is anticipated to intensify competition among U.S. tech giants in AI, including talent acquisition and model development, suggesting a long-term investment focus on AI-related sectors [4]. - OpenAI's recent advancements, including the launch of the ChatGPT Agent and updates to their models, further emphasize the rapid development in the AI field [5]. Group 4: Industry Engagement - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is actively engaging with AI industry players to foster a conducive ecosystem for AI innovation, coinciding with the sixth anniversary of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in artificial intelligence-related stocks and the upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) as a significant driver for market activity, indicating a shift in investor focus towards AI technologies and applications [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - On July 25, AI-related stocks such as Tianrun Technology, Yinsai Group, and CloudWalk Technology saw significant gains, with some hitting the daily limit or increasing by over 10% [2]. - Major AI stocks like iFlytek and Kunlun Wanwei also performed strongly, suggesting a shift of funds from other themes like hydropower and Hainan stocks towards AI [2]. - The WAIC, scheduled for July 26-28, is expected to attract over 800 companies, with more than 50% being international, showcasing a record exhibition area of over 70,000 square meters and featuring over 3,000 cutting-edge exhibits [2]. Group 2: Policy and Strategic Developments - The recent release of the AI Action Plan by the Trump administration aims to enhance the efficiency of the U.S. AI industry, promoting investment in AI infrastructure and applications [4]. - This plan is anticipated to intensify competition among U.S. tech giants in AI, focusing on talent acquisition, model development, and infrastructure investment, positioning AI as a long-term investment theme [4]. - OpenAI's recent advancements, including the launch of the ChatGPT Agent and the Kimi K2 model, highlight ongoing innovations in AI technology [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The article notes a growing interest in AI-related sectors, with significant developments in AI computing chips, high bandwidth memory (HBM), and AI network devices, suggesting a robust investment landscape [4]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's initiative to engage with AI industry players indicates a commitment to fostering a supportive ecosystem for AI innovation [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, presenting significant opportunities in the market [1] Group 1: AI Product Developments - On July 22, iFlytek launched the world's first ink screen smart office device, the iFlytek Smart Office Book X5, featuring a domestically developed cloud model for offline AI functionalities [3] - Google DeepMind's advanced Gemini model achieved gold medal certification for its performance in the 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad, demonstrating significant capabilities in natural language reasoning [3] - Carlsmed Inc., an AI surgical company, has filed for an IPO, seeking to sell 6.7 million shares at $14-16 each, with reports of multiple times oversubscription [3] Group 2: AI Model Enhancements - Alibaba upgraded its flagship Qwen3 model, significantly improving its capabilities in instruction following, logical reasoning, and programming, surpassing leading closed-source models [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - Citic Securities predicts that the AI industry chain will accelerate, driven by developments in next-generation systems and models, alongside supportive policies [8] - Reports indicate that Apple plans to release six iPhone models in 2027, marking the highest number of launches in its history, coinciding with the 20th anniversary of the iPhone [5][6] Group 4: Autonomous Vehicle Market - The autonomous taxi market is heating up, with major players like Tesla, Alphabet, Baidu, Uber, and Amazon increasing their offerings [10] - Analysts favor Alphabet's Waymo as a leading player in the autonomous taxi sector, noting its significant growth in paid ride orders [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance, with the China Securities Artificial Intelligence Industry Index showing a slight decline, while the AI ETF has demonstrated significant growth over the past week and year [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 22, 2025, the China Securities Artificial Intelligence Industry Index (931071) decreased by 0.51% [1]. - The AI ETF (515980) is currently priced at 1.11 yuan, with a weekly increase of 7.50% as of July 21, 2025 [1][3]. - The AI ETF has a total scale of 31.83 billion yuan, with a recent trading volume of 9321.86 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.93% [3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The AI ETF has achieved a net value increase of 44.82% over the past year, ranking 425 out of 2929 index stock funds, placing it in the top 14.51% [3]. - Since its inception, the AI ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 30.38% and an average monthly return of 6.80% during rising months [3]. Group 3: Key Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Artificial Intelligence Industry Index account for 52.07% of the index, with 中际旭创 (300308) being the highest at 8.20% [4][6]. - Other notable stocks include 新易盛 (300502) at 7.36%, 科大讯飞 (002230) at 6.63%, and 豪威集团 (603501) at 6.28% [6]. Group 4: Industry Insights - East Wu Securities indicates that AI applications are on the verge of rapid growth, driven by advancements in information technology and significant reductions in the cost of large model deployment [7]. - The current landscape suggests that the AI sector is poised for substantial commercial potential, with a focus on industry leaders in AI applications [7].

Group 1 - As of the end of Q2 2025, China's public fund industry has generated a profit of 5.94 trillion yuan for its holders since 1998, with the market size reaching a new high of 33.73 trillion yuan and overall net profit exceeding 380 billion yuan [2] - The top 20 funds by profit are predominantly broad-based ETFs, with most profits exceeding 2 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The European Council President and the European Commission President are scheduled to visit China on July 24, where they will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang for the 25th China-EU Leaders' Meeting [3] - The State Council has announced the implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations starting September 15, 2025, aimed at standardizing rental activities and promoting high-quality development in the housing rental market [3] - The July LPR remains unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%, indicating a period of observation for monetary policy [3] Group 3 - China's economy is expected to run smoothly and improve in the second half of 2025, supported by proactive fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has urged the EU to stop listing Chinese companies and financial institutions in its sanctions against Russia, asserting the need to protect the legitimate rights of Chinese entities [4] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has released pilot guidelines for cross-border asset management, allowing foreign investors to invest in RMB-denominated products with a total initial cap of 10 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - The A-share market continues its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.72% at 3559.79 points, and a total market turnover of 1.73 trillion yuan [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68% at 24994.14 points, marking its highest level since February 2022, with significant inflows from southbound funds [5] - Hong Kong has seen a 30% increase in IPOs year-on-year, raising 124 billion HKD, which is a 590% increase compared to the previous year [5] Group 5 - The latest holdings of active equity funds show Tencent Holdings as the top holding, followed by CATL and Kweichow Moutai, with a noticeable reduction in the concentration of holdings among the top 20 stocks [6] - Zhang Kun from E Fund has increased holdings in several liquor stocks and Alibaba, while exiting from Yanghe Brewery [6] - Transsion Holdings is considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong, potentially raising around 1 billion USD [6] Group 6 - BYD plans a stock split of 10-for-8 and a conversion of 12 shares for every 10 held for the 2024 fiscal year [8] - Hainan Free Trade Port has released guidelines for cross-border asset management, allowing foreign investors to invest in RMB-denominated products [4] - The company reports a significant increase in net profit for the first half of the year, with estimates ranging from 607% to 961% [8]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group is rapidly establishing technological leadership in the artificial intelligence sector through the development of intelligent agents based on the Qwen3 model, marking a significant shift in its AI strategy [1][2]. Group 1 - Alibaba's various business units have initiated development plans for intelligent agents based on the Qwen3 model, indicating a self-sustaining technological iteration within the company [1]. - The Qwen series models are serving as a dual-purpose foundation: internally, they unify Alibaba's AI capabilities, while externally, they accelerate the AI transformation of industries in China through an open-source strategy [1]. - Alibaba Cloud is promoting the global deployment of the Qwen model, positioning itself to compete with mainstream open-source models in Europe and the United States [1]. Group 2 - The involvement of Jack Ma, who has been monitoring the Qwen3 development closely, underscores the strategic importance of Qwen3 for Alibaba's future and reflects the urgency of the company in the AI competition [2].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Alibaba's valuation, highlighting its dual role as both an AI enabler (cloud computing) and an AI adopter (especially in e-commerce), suggesting potential upside in cloud revenue growth and profit margins due to surging AI demand [1][2]. Group 1: AI Enabler - Alibaba Cloud is the only major cloud service provider in China offering substantial GPU capacity to external clients, expected to see revenue growth accelerate to 25% in FY2026, benefiting from explosive growth in AI inference demand [2][3]. - The cloud business is strategically focused on external clients, distinguishing it from competitors like Tencent and ByteDance, which have higher internal AI computing needs [5]. - Alibaba's cloud revenue growth is projected to increase from 13% in Q3 FY2025 to 18% in Q4 FY2025, reaching 25% in FY2026 [3]. Group 2: AI Adopter - As an early adopter of AI, Alibaba is integrating AI capabilities into its super apps (Taobao, Amap, DingTalk, Quark), leveraging proprietary e-commerce user data to enhance revenue through improved commission rates and ad conversion rates [6]. - The potential for revenue growth from AI integration in e-commerce is not fully reflected in the market, with projected GMV and CMR growth of 4% and 6% respectively for 2026, excluding AI's impact [6]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - Alibaba is entering the instant retail market, projected to reach a market size of RMB 2 trillion (approximately $267 billion) by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% [7]. - The integration of instant retail products into the Taobao app has led to over 10 million daily orders within six days of launch, indicating strong consumer demand [11]. - Alibaba's strategy for instant retail leverages Taobao's traffic and Ele.me's delivery capabilities without compromising profitability [11].