十月将至，电商行业也将迎来一年中最繁忙的节点之一。 9月28日，2025京东服务商开放季交流会盛大启幕。这场以"开放共赢高效合作"为主题的行业盛会，让全国400余家顶尖服务商与优质商家代表齐聚一堂， 共绘增长新蓝图，共谋发展新机遇，在11.11大促前夕为整个电商生态注入澎湃动能。 京东始终将"商家的成功"作为核心价值标尺。面对即将到来的11.11大促，平台不仅通过资源倾斜为生态伙伴备足"弹药"，更通过系统性能力建设打造出完 整的协同作战体系，最终构建共赢共生的商业生态。这套立体化赋能方案，正推动平台、服务商与商家形成深度协同的增长共同体，共同开启电商生态高 质量发展的新篇章。 全面启动服务商赋能体系，共绘增长新蓝图 作为连接商家与服务商的平台，京麦服务市场已为超百万家店铺提供经营支持，助力商家实现数字化转型与降本增效。孔祥莹分享的数据也证明了这一 点："今年以来，京麦服务市场的商家使用数同比增长近50%，运营类服务需求更是暴涨200%。" 增长不仅是挑战，更是巨大的机遇——平台与服务商正携手构建更强大的支持网络，以精准、高效、成熟的解决方案，回应商家最迫切的成长需求，助力 每一个经营者在11.11的舞台上精准 ...

Macro and Strategy - The equity market is currently in an accelerating upward phase, prompting discussions on how to adjust positions to prepare for potential market fluctuations [8] - Investors are advised to consider right-side position reduction as a more reasonable choice, given the current market dynamics [8] - Historical data suggests that low-priced convertible bonds (priced between 110-115 yuan) tend to be more resilient during market downturns [8] Company and Industry Analysis - **Dengkang Dental (001328.SZ)**: The company reported a stable growth in Q2 2025, with revenue reaching 842 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.72%, and a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 17.59% [10][11] - **Marubi Biotechnology (603983.SH)**: The company achieved a revenue of 1.769 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 30.83% increase year-on-year, while net profit grew by 5.21% to 186 million yuan [13][14] - **Haidi Lao (06862.HK)**: The company reported a revenue of 20.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 3.7%, with core operating profit down 14% [17][18] - **Green Tea Group (06831.HK)**: The company achieved a revenue of 2.29 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 23.1% increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 40% [19][20] - **Haisco Pharmaceutical (002653.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 2 billion yuan in H1 2025, an 18.6% increase, with anesthetic product revenue growing by 54% [22][23] - **Furui Co., Ltd. (300049.SZ)**: The company achieved a revenue of 713 million yuan in H1 2025, an 11.02% increase, while net profit was impacted by foreign exchange losses [26][27] - **Kaili Medical (300633.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 964 million yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 4.78%, with net profit down 72.43% due to high initial investments in new product lines [29][30] - **Yuyue Medical (002223.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 4.659 billion yuan in H1 2025, an 8.2% increase, with net profit rising by 7.4% [31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][19]. Core Views - The company continues to invest in its e-commerce ecosystem, with a focus on long-term growth despite short-term challenges [4][19]. - The revenue for Q2 2025 reached 104 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, with online marketing services revenue increasing by 13% [2][11]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in domestic e-commerce GMV, while facing challenges in transaction service revenue due to its semi-managed transition [2][11]. Revenue Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 1040 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with online marketing service revenue at 557 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year [2][11]. - Transaction service revenue was 483 billion yuan, showing a modest increase of 1% year-on-year, but a slowdown compared to Q1 [2][11]. - The company has initiated a 100 billion yuan support plan to assist merchants, which is expected to impact commission rates on the main platform [2][11]. Profit Summary - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 56%, down 9.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased fulfillment costs and payment processing fees [3][12]. - Sales expense ratio improved to 26.2%, reflecting better control over spending in the context of the support plan and reduced competition in traffic costs [3][12]. - Interest income reached 10.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 115% year-on-year, marking a historical high for the company [3][12]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4363 billion yuan, 4990 billion yuan, and 5633 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 14%, and 13% respectively [4][19]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be 1064 billion yuan, 1314 billion yuan, and 1464 billion yuan for the same period, with adjustments of +27%, +22%, and +16% [4][19]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 12x, 10x, and 9x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][19].

Core Insights - WeChat's participation in the 618 shopping festival is significant as it marks a shift towards direct user subsidies, with a total of 20 million yuan allocated for the event, indicating a strategic move to enhance its e-commerce presence [1][15] - The establishment of the WeChat e-commerce product department signifies a commitment to developing a robust e-commerce ecosystem, aiming to integrate various platforms within WeChat to enhance merchant visibility and consumer engagement [3][5] - The introduction of features like "gift giving" and the "pusher" model reflects WeChat's strategy to leverage its social ecosystem for e-commerce growth, creating a unique competitive advantage over traditional e-commerce platforms [6][10] WeChat's E-commerce Strategy - WeChat's small program GMV is comparable to that of Taobao and Tmall, with a projected GMV of 2 trillion yuan for Q2 2024, although most transactions are service-oriented rather than physical goods [2][3] - The focus on transitioning merchants from small programs to WeChat stores is a key strategy to enhance customer acquisition and sales through WeChat's extensive social network [3][10] - The integration of various features and channels, such as the addition of a small store channel in search results and direct links from ads, aims to create a seamless shopping experience within the WeChat ecosystem [6][19] Competitive Landscape - The launch of the "gift giving" feature has prompted competitors like Taobao and JD to introduce similar functionalities, highlighting the competitive pressure WeChat exerts on the e-commerce market [7][8] - The pusher model, which allows individuals to earn commissions by sharing products, is designed to expand WeChat's reach and engagement, potentially surpassing the effectiveness of traditional affiliate marketing models [9][10] - WeChat's ability to connect social interactions with e-commerce transactions positions it uniquely in the market, leveraging its vast user base and social dynamics to drive sales [13][18] Long-term Vision - WeChat's e-commerce strategy prioritizes building a solid infrastructure over immediate GMV growth, focusing on enhancing user experience, product quality, and merchant engagement [14][15] - The long-term goal is to create a more effective advertising ecosystem within WeChat, increasing the value of each click and encouraging more merchants to invest in advertising on the platform [16][18] - As WeChat continues to develop its e-commerce capabilities, it aims to establish a closed-loop system that enhances transaction efficiency and drives revenue growth for Tencent [18][19]

" 关于 ' 仅退款 ' ，已经不只是一个消费者意愿的问题，更是一个商业模式乃至制度的大讨论。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） " 电商平台要取消 ' 仅退款 ' 了？ " 近日，多家平台传出即将调整 " 仅退款 " 政策的风声，相关话题迅速冲上微博热搜榜首， " 电商平台全面取消仅退款 " 的词条阅读量冲破 2.5 亿，讨论数超过 4.5 万，支持与不支持的网友们各执一词，吵得不可开交。 "' 仅退款 ' 让薅羊毛的人越来越多，最后的成本都转嫁到不怎么 ' 仅退款 ' 的用户头上。 " " 网购的商品老是货不对板，退货又要协商运费又要寄快递，有时候运险费还不能完全覆盖寄回去的运费，麻烦得很。 " 为此，吴晓波频道发起了一份关于 " 仅退款 " 的问卷调查。截至发稿，共收集到 180 份答卷。 这群受访者中，每月网购花费在 500— 2000 元之间的消费者占比近一半，而每月网购在 200—500 元、 2000 元以上的人数分别占比约 25% 。 点击图片▲立即试听 值得一提的是，尽管大家热议仅退款，但真正使用过的人却并不多，在我们调研的 180 位消费者中，使用过 " 仅退款 " 功能的仅有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of e-commerce in China is crucial for driving consumption, promoting employment, and facilitating industrial transformation, supported by a fair and transparent ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: E-commerce Growth and Impact - E-commerce has become a backbone of the domestic consumption market, with online retail sales expected to exceed 15.5 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [2]. - The rise of new business models, such as live-streaming e-commerce, has created new consumer experiences and significantly boosted the sales of domestic brands and local specialty products [1][2]. - E-commerce platforms are instrumental in connecting urban and rural areas, helping local agricultural products like apples and oranges reach national and international markets, thus enhancing farmers' incomes and contributing to rural revitalization [2]. Group 2: Regulatory and Infrastructure Development - Building a robust e-commerce ecosystem requires precise policies and systematic advancement, including the enhancement of legal frameworks and regulatory measures to keep pace with industry trends [3]. - There is a need to optimize the business environment by reducing hidden barriers and transaction costs, while ensuring fair competition and protecting the rights of various business entities [3]. - Investment in digital infrastructure, such as high-speed internet and smart logistics, is essential for the efficient operation of e-commerce [3]. Group 3: Consumer Protection and Trust - Ensuring consumer rights and data security is paramount, necessitating the establishment of effective consumer protection mechanisms and strict enforcement against counterfeit goods and false advertising [4]. - Promoting a multi-faceted governance structure involving government oversight, platform accountability, industry self-regulation, and social supervision is vital for enhancing the overall credibility and trust in the e-commerce ecosystem [4].

Core Viewpoint - JD Group has established a significant presence in the capital market, particularly in Hong Kong, with multiple subsidiaries listed and ongoing plans for further listings [1][4]. Revenue Structure - The revenue structure of JD Group has stabilized, with service revenue accounting for approximately 20% of total revenue [3][4]. - In 2023, product sales reached 871.2 billion, while service revenue was 213.4 billion, with service revenue's share at 19.7% [4]. - The proportion of electronic products in self-operated sales has stabilized around 60%, with sales reaching 5,388 billion in 2023 [5]. Profitability and Performance - The main driver of improved performance is the increase in gross profit margin, which rose to 15.9% in 2024 [9][10]. - JD Group has demonstrated sustained profitability, achieving net profits exceeding 100 billion in recent quarters despite significant asset impairments [12]. Logistics and Supply Chain - JD Logistics, initially a fulfillment department, has evolved into a key player, providing integrated supply chain services and significantly reducing fulfillment costs [21][22]. - The revenue from integrated supply chain services has decreased as a percentage of total logistics revenue, indicating a shift towards more diverse service offerings [17][18]. Segment Performance - JD Retail's revenue surpassed 1 trillion for the first time in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [26]. - JD Logistics has shown remarkable improvement, with operating profit soaring to 63 billion in 2024, reflecting a profit margin of 3.5% [28]. Corporate Structure and Strategy - JD Group has multiple subsidiaries, with significant inter-company revenue that has been increasing over the years, indicating a complex corporate structure [29]. - The strategy of spinning off subsidiaries for public listing has created a network of companies under the JD umbrella, akin to a "big flower pot" nurturing various entities [30].