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中国机场与免税行业 - 新 DFS 招标结果印证我们对上海机场的看空观点-China Airports & Duty-free_ New DFS tender result reaffirms our bearish view on Shanghai Airport
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Duty-Free Retail and Airport Operations - **Companies**: Shanghai International Airport (SIAC) and China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) Key Points and Arguments Shanghai Airport Duty-Free Store (DFS) Tender Results - The tender results for the DFS concessions at Pudong and Hongqiao Airports were announced, with Avolta winning the concession for Pudong Airport Terminal 1 and Satellite Hall 1, while CTGDF won for Terminal 2, Satellite Hall 2, and Hongqiao Airport Terminal 1 [2][5] - The new rental payment structure will consist of a fixed fee and a lower revenue-sharing fee, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2033, with a mid-term review [2][5] Impact on Shanghai Airport - The new rental fee model, which includes a minimum/fixed rental fee and a lower average revenue share of 13% (down from 23%), is seen as negative for Shanghai Airport, indicating management's reduced confidence in potential DFS sales growth [2][5][6] - Estimated total reduction in DFS rental revenue for Shanghai Airport is projected to be Rmb400 million from 2026 to 2033, with a total earnings reduction of Rmb1.7 billion during the same period [2][7][9] - The minimum rental fee will remain largely unchanged at Rmb700 million per annum [2][6] Market Expectations and Analyst Ratings - The tender results missed market expectations, which anticipated higher rental fees due to increased competition and higher revenue-sharing rates [5][6] - Analysts maintain a **Sell** rating on Shanghai Airport due to these developments and the overall bearish outlook on DFS spending per passenger [5][15] Impact on China Tourism Group Duty Free (CTGDF) - CTGDF will operate only half of the DFS store space at Pudong Airport starting in 2026, leading to an estimated 5% negative revenue impact in the next 2-3 years [5][11] - Despite the reduced space, CTGDF will benefit from a higher earnings share (100% vs. 51% previously) from the stores it operates, which may mitigate the overall earnings impact [5][11] - Analysts maintain a **Neutral** rating on CTGDF, citing stretched valuations and several headwinds, including weak consumer sentiment and competition from online platforms [12][14] Financial Projections - The average revenue-sharing rate for Pudong is estimated at 13%, while for Hongqiao it is 12% [6][9] - Projected DFS sales at Shanghai airports are expected to increase slightly in 2026 but decline thereafter, with total DFS sales at Rmb6,466 million in 2026 and Rmb6,986 million in 2027 [9][11] Risks and Considerations - Key upside risks for CTGDF include potential policy stimulus for consumption and the new downtown DFS policy effective from October 1, 2024, which may drive more sales [12][14] - Key downside risks include intensified price competition from e-commerce platforms and weakening demand for luxury products [14] Other Important Content - The new tenancy model includes a review one year ahead of Phase 2 to decide on contract continuation or termination [8] - The financial impact of the tenancy change is detailed in various exhibits, showing a clear comparison between old and new contract terms [9][11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications for Shanghai Airport and CTGDF, as well as the broader market context.
盐津铺子:会议要点 -依托三条增长曲线,长期志在成为全球零食品牌;买入
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of Yankershop Food Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yankershop Food (002847.SZ) - **Industry**: Snack Food Industry Key Takeaways Long-term Ambition - Yankershop aims to become a world-class snack brand within the next 5-10 years, focusing on Chinese-style flavor snacks such as konjac and tofu, with aspirations to achieve global brand recognition similar to iconic brands like Oreo [1][9] Growth Curves 1. **Core Growth Curve**: - Focus on Chinese flavor snacks, particularly through the "Da Mo Wang" brand and konjac & tofu products, with konjac projected to reach Rmb30-50 billion in retail sales [1][9] 2. **Secondary Growth Driver**: - High-protein diet products, including eggs and quail eggs, with expected sales growth of 30% in 2025 [9][10] 3. **Health-Conscious Products**: - Targeting health-conscious consumers with products like dried fruits [9][10] Operational Outlook for 2026 - **Category Expansion**: - SKUs will expand from konjac-only to include tofu [2] - **Raw Material Cost Reduction**: - Prices expected to fall to Rmb40-50k/ton from Rmb70-80k/ton in the next 2-3 years, aiding in cost reductions [2] - **Net Profit Margin (NPM) Improvement**: - Expected improvements driven by favorable product mix, production efficiency, and channel structure optimization, despite increased marketing expenditures [2] Marketing and Execution Strategies - **Brand Ambassador**: - Appointment of Wang Yibo to enhance brand awareness for "Da Mo Wang" [11] - **Online Marketing**: - Engagement with over 10,000 top streamers on Douyin to boost consumer awareness [11] - **Distributor Optimization**: - Focus on large partners and elimination of inefficient distributors, currently maintaining less than 1,000 distributors [11] Channel Strategies - **Wholesales-Packaged Channel**: - Fastest growing channel, with expectations for konjac products to constitute 70% of sales in this channel by 2025 [14] - **E-commerce Optimization**: - Streamlining product structure to improve profit margins and expanding online retail points by 100K-200K annually [14] International Expansion Plans - **Global Market Entry**: - Plans for international expansion of konjac, quail eggs, and dried mango, with M&A as a primary strategy for entering overseas markets [10][11] - **Supply Chain Focus**: - Emphasis on Southeast Asia supply chain for capacity ramp-up during international expansion [10] Financial Outlook - **Revenue Projections**: - Expected revenue growth from Rmb5.3 billion in 2024 to Rmb7.6 billion by 2027 [17] - **CAPEX Plans**: - Rmb200 million allocated for production scale-up and automation in 2026 [15] - **Price Target**: - 12-month price target set at Rmb87, representing a 25.2% upside from the current price of Rmb69.47 [17] Risks - **Competitive Landscape**: - Increased competition in the snacking industry, particularly from private labels [16] - **Market Dynamics**: - Potential slower-than-expected pace of snack discounters opening and higher raw material costs [16] Conclusion Yankershop Food is positioning itself for significant growth in the snack food industry through strategic product development, marketing initiatives, and international expansion plans, while also addressing potential risks associated with competition and market dynamics.
深南电路:期权方案保障 2028 年前增长确定性
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of Shennan Circuit Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennan Circuit (002916.SZ) - **Industry**: Printed Circuit Board (PCB) and Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) Key Points Incentive Plan - Shennan announced a Phase II Restricted Stock Incentive Plan, granting **15.16 million shares** (2.27% of total issued capital) to **667 key personnel** at a price of **RMB 114.72/share** [1][2] - The plan aims to align key talent with shareholder interests during the AI upcycle, with stringent unlocking criteria including: - Recurring net profit CAGR of **≥13%** compared to 2024 - Continuous ROE improvement to **>12.8%** by 2028 - Performance in the **75th percentile** of industry peers [1][2] Financial Performance Expectations - The incentive scheme is designed to ensure double-digit year-on-year growth during **2026-2028E** and to outperform major peers [2] - The exercise price reflects a **40% discount** from the closing price of **RMB 191.2/share** prior to the announcement [2] Market Position and Valuation - Shennan's target price is set at **RMB 281**, indicating an expected share price return of **46.1%** and a total return of **47.1%** [3] - The company is positioned as a key player in the domestic AI server and auto segments, contributing over **55%** of total PCB sales [7] - The target PE of **48x** forward reflects a **40-50% premium** to the sector average, justified by Shennan's leading position and technology leadership [7] Risks - Potential downside risks include: - Slower-than-expected growth in the China AI server market - Weaker demand for auto and ADAS systems - Lower-than-expected profits from the new plant in Wuxi - Higher laminate cost inflation [8] Conclusion - The recent stock price retreat of over **20%** from the year-to-date peak in early October has led to a reiteration of the **Buy** rating [1]
潍柴动力:近期电话会核心要点-聚焦数据中心发电机
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of Weichai Power (000338.SZ) Conference Call Industry Overview - The global generator industry is experiencing unprecedented growth, with the data center generator market value expanding from approximately US$3-4 billion to around US$10 billion, growing at an annual rate of 25-30% due to price increases and strong volume growth [10][20] - The demand for prime on-site power solutions is primarily in North America and parts of Europe, with forecasts indicating that 20-25% of North American data centers will have prime on-site power by 2028, up from 2-3% currently [10][21] Company Insights Weichai Power (000338.SZ) - Weichai Power is positioned as a significant player in the generator market, particularly in diesel gensets, which are viewed as the ideal backup power solution for data centers due to their fast ramp-up speed [10][20] - The company has a comprehensive positioning across diesel and natural gas engines, as well as fuel cells, allowing it to capture growth opportunities both domestically and internationally [20][44] - Weichai's multi-brand strategy and established overseas partnerships enhance its competitive edge in the geopolitical environment [20] Financial Projections - Market capitalization: Rmb156.9 billion / $22.2 billion - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: Rmb215,690.5 million - 2025: Rmb227,747.6 million - 2026: Rmb248,893.1 million - 2027: Rmb266,213.8 million [6][17] - EBITDA and EPS are also projected to grow significantly, with EPS expected to reach Rmb1.91 by 2027 [11][17] Competitive Landscape - The diesel genset market is highly consolidated, dominated by major players such as Caterpillar (CAT), Cummins (CMI), and MTU, which together hold 75-80% of the market share [10][20] - Weichai and Yuchai are emerging as strong local competitors in China, with Weichai expanding its presence overseas [10][20] Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply constraints have been a significant issue, particularly for gas systems, with lead times extending to 2-3 years. However, the worst of the supply issues for diesel gensets is believed to have passed [20][31] - The expert noted that the demand surge has led to significant price increases, contributing to the tripling of the data center generator market value [20][28] Market Trends - There is a trend towards upsizing generators from the current 2MW standard to 2.5MW and higher, with Yuchai introducing new products that can reach up to 3.6MW [20][41] - The pricing environment is described as stable, but competition is intensifying, particularly for large internet customers [20][45] Future Outlook - Despite a temporary slowdown in the second half of 2025 due to delayed tenders from major internet companies, both Weichai and Yuchai remain optimistic about a strong recovery in 2026, with expected shipment growth of 30-40% year-over-year [20][41] - The overall sentiment is that the slowdown is a deferral of demand rather than a structural decline, with significant orders already secured for 2026 [20][41] Conclusion - Weichai Power is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for data center generators, supported by its strong market presence, financial projections, and strategic partnerships. The company is expected to navigate supply chain challenges effectively and maintain a competitive edge in the evolving market landscape [20][44]
芯原股份20251214
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of Conference Call for Chip Origin Technology Company Overview - **Company**: Chip Origin Technology (芯原股份) - **Industry**: Semiconductor and AI Chip Development Key Points Investment and Shareholding - Chip Origin acquired a 2.11% stake in Zhudian Semiconductor for 20 million yuan in registered capital and 350 million yuan in cash, becoming the largest shareholder with a 40% stake, thus gaining control [2][3] Strategic Focus - The company has terminated its merger with Xinlai but will continue to strengthen its layout in the RISC-V field and maintain cooperation with Xinlai while expanding partnerships with other RISC-V IP suppliers [2][6] Market Environment - The third interest rate cut in 2025 marks the sixth cut since September 2024, providing a favorable environment for the industry, although potential interest rate hikes in the next year should be monitored [2][9] Collaboration with Google - Chip Origin has partnered with Google on the open-source Coral NPU project, which features 0.27 billion parameters, aimed at ecosystem development and providing free resources to developers, utilizing RISC-V architecture [2][10] Industry Trends - Qualcomm's acquisition of a high-performance RISC-V company indicates a promising future for the RISC-V industry, with Chip Origin committed to its development and maintaining relationships with ARM clients [2][11] Stock Performance - Since the new policy in September 2024, Chip Origin's stock has surged by 460% in 2025, reaching a valuation of 100 billion yuan, outperforming major indices [4][12] Project Development - The company is progressing well with foundational projects in Q4, with an increase in both existing and new orders, indicating sustained business growth [4][16] RISC-V Development Outlook - RISC-V is expected to have a broad development space, particularly in industrial applications and autonomous driving, although it may not directly challenge ARM in the mobile market [2][17] High-Speed Interface Importance - High-speed interfaces (SerDes) are crucial in data centers, facilitating efficient data transmission, and are a focus area for Chip Origin's development [18][19] Future Strategies - Chip Origin aims to enhance competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, as well as independent R&D, while also considering the development of high-speed interface IP products [20][17] Challenges in Mergers - Common issues in mergers include valuation and cultural integration, with creative payment methods and earn-out agreements suggested as solutions [21][22] Policy Impact - National policies significantly influence mergers in the semiconductor industry, supporting technology acquisition while also imposing challenges related to asset preservation and valuation [22][23] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its positive trend driven by innovation, despite challenges such as high valuations and policy restrictions [23]
伟明环保20251214
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of the Conference Call for Weiming Environmental Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Weiming Environmental, particularly its operations in the waste incineration sector in Indonesia and its new materials business in nickel smelting [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Indonesian Waste Incineration Project - The Indonesian waste incineration project is set to start construction in Q1 2026 and begin operations in the second half of 2027 [2]. - The project is backed by a presidential decree that clarifies the business model, with the national sovereign fund Danatala holding a 30%-51% stake, and the state electricity company responsible for power purchase [3]. - Local governments will provide land and guarantee a daily supply of at least 1,000 tons of waste [3]. - The profitability of the Indonesian waste incineration market is significantly higher than that of China, with revenue per ton of waste approximately three times that of China [2][5]. - The expected contribution to Weiming Environmental's performance from this project is around 200 million yuan in 2026, assuming nickel prices at 15,000 USD/ton [3][9]. New Materials Business - Weiming Environmental's new materials business focuses on nickel smelting, with 20,000 tons of high-nickel capacity already operational and another 20,000 tons expected to come online in the next two quarters [2][6]. - Sales of high-nickel products exceeded 300 million yuan by Q3 2025, with expectations for production to reach over 30,000 tons in 2026 [7]. - Weiming Shengqing, a subsidiary, has a capacity of 75,000 tons of battery-grade nickel sulfate and has generated over 1 billion yuan in revenue with a net profit of approximately 100 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [8]. Financial Performance and Projections - The waste incineration business has shown steady growth, with a 7.5% increase in waste intake and a 5.11% increase in electricity generation year-on-year as of Q3 2025 [10]. - The company expects annual growth rates of 5%-10% in waste incineration operations due to new project launches and technological optimizations [10]. - The equipment business is also projected to perform well in 2026 due to a significant increase in new orders [11]. Stock Valuation and Market Outlook - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for Weiming Environmental is low, with estimates of 12.7 for 2025 and 10.5 for 2026 [12]. - Recent stock price weakness is attributed to convertible bond redemptions and a major shareholder's impending sell-off, which are expected to resolve after December 17 [12][13]. - Despite these challenges, the investment value of the company remains high due to clear growth catalysts from the Indonesian project and new materials business [13]. Other Important Insights - The Indonesian waste incineration market is projected to reach an operational revenue scale of 29.4 to 36.5 billion yuan in the long term, which is equivalent to half the size of the domestic market [5]. - The company is also exploring strategic partnerships and acquisitions to enhance performance further [10].
赛恩斯20251214
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Sains - **Industry**: Rhenium and New Materials Key Points and Arguments 1. **Rhenium Demand and Supply**: Rhenium is a critical high-temperature alloy element widely used in aerospace, catalysts, and industrial gas turbines. 80% of global rhenium demand comes from aerospace, driven by the aerospace industry and AI data centers' demand for industrial gas turbines. Demand is expected to continue growing in the coming years [2][7]. 2. **Limited Rhenium Supply**: Global proven rhenium reserves are only 2,600 tons, with China holding just 200 tons. This limited supply may lead to a rapid expansion of the supply-demand gap, driving rhenium prices up. Current prices have risen from 15,000 to 20,000 per kilogram before 2025 to 30,000 [2][7]. 3. **Partnerships and Production Capacity**: Sains has partnered with Zijin Mining to establish the first rhenium recovery capacity, achieving an annual production capacity of two tons of high-purity rhenium ammonium by mid-2025. Further plans include refining pure rhenium and expanding production through new projects with Zijin Mining [2][5][6]. 4. **Transition to New Materials**: Sains is transitioning from traditional heavy metal pollution control to the new materials sector, focusing on copper extractants, efficient flotation agents, and high-purity sodium sulfide projects. The acquisition of Longli Chemical has expanded copper extractant capacity to 7,000 tons per year [2][8][9]. 5. **Profit Contribution from New Materials**: New materials projects are expected to contribute tens of millions to over a hundred million in profits once fully operational, providing stable support for Sains' long-term development [3][8]. 6. **Revenue Structure Changes**: The gross profit margin from heavy metal pollution solutions is decreasing, while the share of operational and reagent sales is increasing, indicating initial success in the company's diversification strategy [3][10]. 7. **Stock Performance**: Sains' strong stock performance is attributed to breakthroughs in strategic metals, particularly rhenium applications, which significantly enhance the performance of high-temperature alloys used in aerospace engines [4][10]. Additional Important Information - **Future Market Outlook**: The demand for rhenium is expected to grow due to advancements in aerospace and commercial space industries, as well as the increasing need for industrial gas turbines driven by AI data centers. The anticipated supply-demand gap may lead to significant price increases for rhenium, enhancing profitability for Sains [7][10]. - **Strategic Focus**: The company is successfully transitioning to a new materials company, with a diversified business model that enhances stability and growth potential [10].
中原内配20251214
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of Zhongyuan Neipei Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongyuan Neipei - **Industry**: Automotive components, specifically focusing on internal combustion engine parts, AI-related products, and automotive electronics Key Points and Arguments Business Expansion and Growth Opportunities - Zhongyuan Neipei is actively expanding into the AI-related business, leveraging its existing expertise in cylinder sleeves and pistons to enter the AI backup power market, which has significantly higher profit margins than traditional internal combustion engine components, potentially becoming a new growth driver for the company [2][3] - The acquisition of Henan Hengjiu is aimed at expanding the bimetal brake drum business, which is expected to generate over 600 million RMB in revenue by 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 50% [2][17] - The management transition to a second-generation leadership has led to a strategic shift towards AI and electronic industries, enabling the company to seize new market opportunities and accelerate growth [2][7] Financial Performance and Projections - Historical performance shows a robust revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% over the past decade, despite some fluctuations in profit due to external factors [6] - Future growth is projected to exceed 20% over the next two to three years, driven by the development of AI, automation, and automotive electronics, alongside stable support from traditional core businesses [8][24] - The company’s current valuation is low, estimated at around 13-14 times earnings for 2026, with a potential market capitalization exceeding 10 billion RMB [3][9] Product Development and Market Position - The internal combustion engine key components business is expected to grow due to the release of technical cooperation agreements, allowing for increased production of pistons and cylinder sleeves, particularly in the AI backup power market [11] - The automotive electronics segment, primarily focused on turbocharger actuators, is projected to grow by about 10% in 2025, with further acceleration expected post-2027 as new projects are launched [12] - The bimetal brake drum products offer advantages such as lightweight design, enhanced safety, and improved wear resistance, making them increasingly popular in new vehicle models [13][14] Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The brake drum market is substantial, with an estimated value of around 3 billion RMB for heavy-duty trucks, and the overall market size nearing 10 billion RMB when considering both front and rear installations [18][19] - Henan Hengjiu's revenue has shown significant growth, from 100-200 million RMB in 2023 to an expected 600 million RMB in 2025, indicating strong market acceptance and potential [17][20] Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company is maintaining investments in hydrogen energy, focusing on fuel cell engines and components, despite slow industrialization progress, with plans to intensify efforts once the market matures [21] - The tool business, primarily involving cubic boron nitride tools, is expected to maintain a growth rate of 30%-40%, indicating further expansion potential [22] - The company is also exploring opportunities in robotics, leveraging its automotive electronics and manufacturing capabilities [23] Conclusion - Zhongyuan Neipei is positioned for significant growth through strategic expansions into AI and automotive electronics, alongside a solid foundation in traditional internal combustion engine components. The management's proactive approach and market dynamics suggest a promising outlook for the company's future performance [24]
佐力药业20251214
2025-12-15 01:55
Q&A 佐力药业在 2025 年的业绩表现如何?未来的利润预期是什么? 佐力药业在 2025 年前三季度实现了 5 亿元的利润,预计全年利润将达到 6.5 亿元。根据股权激励计划,2026 年公司的利润目标是 8 亿元以上。尽管中药 行业整体表现一般,但佐力药业凭借显著的业绩增长趋势,在市场中脱颖而出。 佐力药业 20251214 摘要 佐力药业以 3.56 亿元收购未来医药微量元素注射液资产组,包括多维 一、多维二和在研的多维三等产品,均为国家医保乙类品种,已在多省 集采中选,预计该收购将优化公司产品结构,增强盈利能力。 2024 年国内多种微量元素注射液市场规模约为 18 亿元,且微营养制剂 赛道近年来保持 15%以上的平均增速,预计未来在新基药目录调整和专 家共识支持下,市场前景广阔。 未来医药的微量元素注射液资产组在儿童微量元素肠外营养领域占据领 先地位,覆盖全国 99%的儿童专科医院及妇幼保健院,与佐力药业合作 后,有望在综合医院得到更广泛应用。 佐力药业计划在 2026 年实现 600 万支的销售目标,并通过引进未来医 药的销售人员和整合现有资源,加强学术基础、专家体系和医院开发, 以确保持续发展 ...
昊志机电20251214
2025-12-15 01:55
Summary of Haoshi Electromechanical Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Haoshi Electromechanical - **Industry**: Commercial aerospace, PCB drilling and forming equipment, robotics, and automation Key Points and Arguments - **Commercial Aerospace Applications**: Haoshi's liquid oxygen-methane engine motors are utilized in Blue Arrow rockets, with each engine valued at approximately 4 million yuan. It is expected that 30% of the motors will need replacement after each recovery due to wear and tear, indicating a potential increase in value as rocket capacity expands and new products are developed [2][4][13][18] - **Growth Projections**: The company anticipates a nearly 90% revenue growth in 2025, with a further 100% increase expected in 2026. This growth is driven by advancements in AI and changes in the Apple supply chain, which are projected to boost spindle business by 40%-50% [2][3][6] - **Acquisition Impact**: The acquisition of a European automation group in 2020 has stabilized revenue at around 300 million yuan annually. However, inflation has led to losses, with expectations of returning to profitability by 2026 [2][7] - **Production Capacity Expansion**: Due to unexpected demand from the AI market, Haoshi has invested nearly 100 million yuan in new equipment to double production capacity by February 2026 [2][9][10] - **Market Share in Apple Supply Chain**: Haoshi holds over 60% market share in the glass and touch screen polishing market, with expected growth in spindle business from 100 million yuan in 2025 to 200 million yuan in 2026 [2][11] - **Joint Ventures**: A joint venture with Fengze Sheng aims to invest in high-end linear guide rail projects, expected to generate 150 million yuan in revenue by March 2026 [2][14] - **Overall Performance Expectations**: The company forecasts a 40%-50% increase in overall performance for 2026, with revenues projected to reach around 2.3 billion yuan, primarily driven by the industrial mother machine and robotics sectors [3][15] Additional Important Insights - **Commercial Space Development**: Haoshi is focusing on expanding its customer base in the commercial aerospace sector and enhancing product technology to meet growing market demands [16] - **Competitive Advantages**: Haoshi's products are competitively priced, approximately 30% cheaper than those from state-owned manufacturers, providing a significant advantage in the commercial aerospace market [19] - **Collaborations in Robotics**: Ongoing collaboration with Lens Technology, a key player in the Apple supply chain, is expected to strengthen as Lens builds a large factory for robotics components [20] - **Satellite Sector Plans**: Haoshi is exploring opportunities in the satellite sector, with plans to develop motor systems for satellite movement and power, expected to commence in 2026 [21]