特朗普政府提名沃什出任美联储主席，仅是本轮贵金属价格下跌的催化剂。 确认下一任美联储主席人选是美国总统特朗普第二任期内最重要的人事安排之一。1月30日，特朗普宣 布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，提名消息引发金融市场震荡，贵金属价格出现急跌。那么，如何看 待沃什的政策主张，及其对贵金属价格的影响？本文拟就此展开分析。 按照程序，美联储主席提名需要经过参议院确认。尽管针对鲍威尔的刑事调查一事可能导致提名确认过 程一波三折，但提名最终获得确认仍是大概率事件，沃什最早在今年6月份议息会议之前上任，其政策 立场是全球关注焦点。 沃什过去的货币政策立场以鹰派著称，2017年因其鹰派立场和资历尚浅，在特朗普第一任期不敌鲍威 尔，错失美联储主席提名机会。不过，近年来尤其是在本轮美联储主席遴选过程中，沃什与特朗普的政 策立场逐渐趋同，屡次批评美联储拒绝降息，并指责美联储过度依赖数据、滥用资产负债表、存在职能 蔓延等问题。 结合近年来沃什的公开表态，可以将其政策主张归纳为以下三个方面。 第一，支持美联储降息。在公布美联储主席提名之前，特朗普曾在媒体采访中表示，将快速降息视为挑 选美联储主席的"试金石"。因此，包括沃什在内的四位候 ...

当前伊朗通货膨胀压力超过伊斯兰革命和两伊战争期间 基础不牢，地动山摇；经济凋敝、民生困苦是伊朗内部动荡和外部被动的直接根源；在不少方面，目前伊朗的经济民生压力已经 超过了伊斯兰革命推翻巴列维王朝和两伊战争两大动荡时期，突出体现在通货膨胀问题上。而且，今天的伊朗政府要应对、解决 通货膨胀等经济民生问题也面临重重障碍，不仅目前国内外经济基本面决定了伊朗政府严重缺乏扭转高通胀和货币贬值的手段， 而且面临比伊斯兰革命和两伊战争期间严重得多的外部制裁。至于今天这样随时可能遭遇超级大国军事打击助推内部动荡的风 险，更是伊斯兰革命和两伊战争期间所没有的。 经济、气候等基本面决定了即使没有外部军事威胁，伊朗目前的经济民生危机也将进一步恶化。 从2025年12月28日爆发的动乱迅速席卷全国，到今天的美以军事打击威胁咄咄逼人，内忧外患交织，伊朗伊斯兰共和国政权已经 走到了生死存亡的深渊边缘。经济、气候等基本面决定了即使没有外部军事威胁，伊朗目前的经济民生危机也将进一步恶化。在 长久经济困难、极端旱灾、意识形态坍塌、统治体系裂痕、战争失败五重危机冲击叠加之下，政治、军事颠覆性系统性风险已非 不可想象。 两伊战争1980年9月20日 ...

有投资者3年前卖房买入百万黄金。 近日，黄金市场的剧烈波动，持续牵动着每一位投资者的神经。伦敦金现在1月底触及阶段性高点后出 现大幅回调，随后转入持续震荡。 在这轮罕见的大起大落中，市场参与者的行动也呈现出显著的分化：一边是部分机构与个人果断高位套 现，另一边是仍有大量投资者紧握黄金资产坚定看涨。 当波动渐成常态，投资者的心态正经历怎样的变化？面对日益复杂且情绪化的黄金市场，他们如何形成 认知、作出决策，并承担随之而来的结果？第一财经记者深度对话了多位投入重金的投资者，记录下他 们的真实轨迹与心路历程。 套现、坚守、深陷 近期，金价如坐"过山车"。伦敦金现自1月29日触及每盎司5598美元的阶段性高点后，接连遭遇重挫， 次日暴跌9.25%，2月2日再跌4.52%，一度下探至4402美元，近期则在5000美元关口下方起伏不定。将 时间线拉长，这场波动显得更为汹涌。自2025年8月以来，金价累计涨幅已逼近50%。剧烈震荡之中， 有人选择落袋为安，有人选择坚守，也有人被套牢在波峰。 在浙江从事资管行业的阿诚（化名），去年末至今年初悄然调整了他的仓位：陆续减持了黄金积存金、 白银以及有色金属ETF。但保留了部分实物金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent strength in A-share bank stocks is driven by a combination of fundamental improvements and capital inflows, with a notable performance from regional banks [1][4][9] - The banking sector has shown resilience with expectations of revenue and net profit growth gradually recovering in 2026, supported by a stable net interest margin and improved asset quality [1][4][9] - The performance of city commercial banks has outpaced that of larger banks, with significant stock price increases observed in banks like Xiamen Bank and Qingdao Bank, which have shown year-on-year gains of 40.36% and 35.29% respectively [2][3][4] Group 2 - The recent data shows that the banking sector has attracted approximately 22.49 billion yuan in net capital inflows, particularly into smaller banks, indicating a shift in investor preference towards stable cash flows and lower valuations [7][9] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the banking sector is currently at 6.1 times, with a price-to-book ratio of about 0.52 times, suggesting that valuations are at historical lows and making the sector attractive for long-term investors [7][9] - Analysts believe that the banking sector is entering a new growth cycle in 2026, with expectations of a recovery in earnings and a potential increase in loan growth, which could further enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks [8][9]

专家认为，从更根本的能力构建而言，当前亟须从过往的被动应急响应机制转向构建前瞻性的主动防御 网络。 未来五年里，在扩大高水平开放过程中，如何有效识别和管理跨境输入性传染病风险，将成为中国传染 病防控的重点议题。 近日召开的2026年全国疾病预防控制工作会议称，"十五五"期间，要在高水平对外开放中发挥好支撑保 障作用，完善输入性传染病防控策略，筑牢口岸疫情防控屏障。 这一前瞻性部署并非无的放矢。近年来，从基孔肯雅热等蚊媒传染病到尼帕病毒病等新发传染病，它们 在多国发生、传播并多次通过国际旅行者输入到非流行国家和地区。 中国作为世界上人员跨境流动规模较大的国家之一，2025年，全国移民管理机构共查验出入境人员6.97 亿人次，同比上升14.2%，创历史新高。随着短期免签等出入境便利化政策持续扩展，中国国际入境人 口数量明显回升，入境人群构成更加多元、流动路径愈发复杂，这在客观上增加了输入性公共卫生事件 发生的概率和不确定性。 近日，第一财经对话了北京大学博雅特聘教授、公众健康与重大疫情防控战略研究中心主任李立明和昆 山杜克大学全球健康研究中心联合主任、教授徐福洁。他们一致认为，尽管中国在口岸防控、国内应急 能力建 ...

"这会直接掐断国内机构相关稳定币的违法发行源头。" 被市场称为虚拟货币领域"史上最严"的监管新规近日正式落地。 2月6日，央行联合八部门发布《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》（下称《通 知》），再次重申虚拟货币相关业务活动属于非法金融活动，并首次明确任何单位和个人不得在境外发 行挂钩人民币的稳定币。 人民币稳定币境外发行被禁 2025年以来，稳定币市场热度持续攀升的同时，风险防控与合规边界也为各方所关注。伴随《稳定币条 例》在香港落地生效，香港稳定币发行人牌照发放进程备受市场瞩目。在牌照申请热潮中，部分内地科 技巨头的布局与走向成为焦点。此前，相关机构曾参与香港稳定币测试与筹备，一度被视为首批牌照的 热门候选。 此次《通知》在重申虚拟货币相关活动属于非法金融活动的基础上，首次以规范性文件形式明确核心监 管要求：挂钩法定货币的稳定币在流通中变相履行法定货币部分功能，未经相关部门依法同意，境内外 任何单位和个人不得在境外发行挂钩人民币的稳定币；同时严格规范境内主体境外展业行为，境内主体 及其控制的境外主体未经批准不得在境外发行虚拟货币。 "这会直接掐断国内机构相关稳定币的违法发行源头。"博通分析金融 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the success of Li Yapeng in live-streaming sales, emphasizing the emotional connection and social value that can drive commercial success [1][2][5] - It illustrates how genuine actions and emotional narratives can lead to significant engagement and financial outcomes in the "traffic economy" [2][3][4] Group 1: Li Yapeng's Live-Streaming Success - Li Yapeng's live-streaming event on February 7 achieved 16.96 million views and over 100 million yuan in sales within 5 hours and 44 minutes [1] - This was the third live-streaming event in ten days where sales exceeded 100 million yuan, with the highest reaching over 180 million yuan on January 30 [1] - His follower count on short video platforms surged by 5 million in one month, reaching 11 million, marking him as a "non-typical top influencer" [1] Group 2: Emotional Engagement and Community Support - The turning point for Li Yapeng's popularity was a video discussing the potential closure of a children's hospital due to unpaid rent, which resonated with viewers and highlighted his philanthropic efforts [1][2] - Viewers expressed their support by purchasing products during live streams and donating to the hospital, showcasing a community-driven response [1][2] - Li Yapeng's decision to donate his previous live-stream earnings to the hospital further solidified his connection with the audience, despite his warnings for rational consumption [1][2] Group 3: Broader Implications in the Traffic Economy - The article draws parallels with other individuals who gained popularity through authentic narratives, such as Wang Hao and "Dai Dai," emphasizing the importance of sincerity and warmth in engaging audiences [2][3] - It contrasts these genuine cases with those who exploit "problematic traffic" for attention, highlighting the need for ethical practices in traffic economy [4] - The overarching message is that true success in the traffic economy comes from maintaining sincerity and social value, rather than merely chasing fleeting trends [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with a shift in investment strategies from long-term allocation to short-term trading, leading institutions to warn of an impending consolidation phase in the coming weeks [1][5]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The past week saw extreme fluctuations in the precious metals market, with London gold spot prices showing a maximum intraday price difference of around $300 per ounce, and silver experiencing 11 instances of over 5% volatility within seven trading days, resulting in a monthly volatility rate exceeding 100% [2]. - Gold ETFs faced substantial redemptions, with seven ETFs linked to the SGE gold 9999 index shrinking by over 22 billion yuan in total during the week [2][3]. - Speculative positions in COMEX gold futures decreased significantly, with net long positions dropping by 27,983 contracts to 93,438 contracts, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes and Market Sentiment - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised margin requirements for silver futures seven times since December 2025, with the latest increase on February 5, reflecting heightened volatility and signaling potential market turning points [4]. - Analysts from various institutions have lowered short-term expectations for precious metals, warning investors of potential further sell-offs, particularly in gold and silver [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, supported by limited supply and ongoing increases in central bank gold reserves, with China's official gold reserves rising to 74.19 million ounces as of January 2026 [7]. - Factors such as de-globalization, a weakening dollar, and continuous accumulation of gold by global central banks provide structural support for gold prices in the long run [7].

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory scrutiny on A-share companies has intensified, with multiple companies being investigated and penalized for violations related to information disclosure and financial misconduct since 2026 [1][15]. Group 1: Recent Investigations and Penalties - Eight A-share companies and four related individuals have been investigated since 2026, with recent cases including Tian Sheng New Materials and Aihui Long, both facing allegations of information disclosure violations [1][9]. - ST Fuhua was fined 6.5 million yuan for financial fraud involving collusion with a third-party company, which led to inflated profits of approximately 35.8 million yuan in 2020 [3][4]. - Rongbai Technology was fined a total of 9.5 million yuan for misleading statements regarding a major contract with Ningde Times, which was deemed to lack accurate reflection of the actual terms [6][7]. Group 2: Specific Cases and Financial Impact - ST Fuhua's financial misconduct resulted in a reported revenue of 740 million yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 169.36%, but the company still recorded a net loss when excluding the inflated profits [5][4]. - The inflated profits from ST Fuhua's subsidiary accounted for 120.18% of the total profit disclosed for that period, indicating severe discrepancies in financial reporting [4]. - The investigation into Rongbai Technology revealed that the announced sales figures were based on estimates and lacked contractual guarantees, leading to regulatory action [6][8]. Group 3: Broader Regulatory Trends - The regulatory environment has become increasingly stringent, with a notable increase in investigations into financial misconduct and information disclosure violations among A-share companies [15][19]. - In 2025, a total of 87 A-share companies were investigated, with over 40% being ST companies, highlighting a trend of heightened scrutiny in the market [16]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized a comprehensive approach to tackling financial fraud, involving collaboration with judicial authorities to enhance enforcement and accountability [18][19].

类似战略升级在央企中并非孤例。1月31日，中国能建旗下核心企业华东电力设计院（下称"中国能建华 东院"）成立"绿色氢基能源化工工程公司"，旨在打造专业化氢能工程与咨询平台，推动氢能技术从实 验室走向规模化应用。更早的1月初，国家能源集团在官网"组织架构"中新增"氢能事业部"，成为五大 发电集团中首个设立氢能专管部门的企业。 今年以来，吉电股份（现电投绿能）、中国能建、国家能源集团等国央企密集布局氢能领域，通过战略 重组、机构升格、平台设置等举措，推动氢能从"辅助业务"向"核心战略板块"跃升，加速构建覆盖技术 研发、工程应用、市场消纳的全产业链生态。 2月4日，吉林电力股份有限公司（即"吉电股份"）正式更名为国电投绿色能源股份有限公司（即"电投 绿能"，000875.SZ）。截至2025年末，该公司管理资产规模超1000亿元。而此次更名后，公司将聚 焦"新能源+"和绿色氢基能源双赛道。 电投绿能称，作为国家电投集团全球绿色氢基能源产业平台，公司将承接国家电投集团培育未来支柱产 业、打造新经济增长极的发展使命，为境内外项目提供从投资建设、运营管理到生产供应、市场销售的 一体化赋能解决方案。今年以来，公司国际化合作 ...