美国就业市场出现金融危机以来最严峻的开局。 职场咨询公司Challenger Gray & Christmas周四发布的《挑战者裁员报告》显示，雇主宣布的裁员人数飙升至十七年以来最高1月水平，而招聘计划 则跌至该机构有记录以来的同期最低水平。 报告显示，1月美国企业宣布裁员108435人，较去年同期激增118%，较2025年12月暴增205%。这是自2009年1月以来最高的同期裁员数字，当时 美国经济正处于大萧条以来最严重衰退的尾声。 与此同时，企业仅宣布计划新增5306个职位，同样创下2009年该机构开始追踪此类数据以来的1月最低纪录。运输和科技行业主导了此轮裁员潮， UPS计划削减逾30000个岗位，亚马逊宣布裁减16000个主要为企业层级的职位。 这一数据表明，尽管官方失业救济申请数据仍处于低位，但企业对2026年经济前景的悲观情绪正在转化为实际行动，劳动力市场"不招不裁"的叙 事可能正在发生转变。 运输业裁员规模最大，科技行业紧随其后 1月裁员总数较2025年12月的35500人增长超过两倍，标志着企业在年初就采取了激进的成本削减措施。 Challenger公司首席营收官兼职场专家Andy Chall ...

Core Viewpoint - Momentum consensus trading experienced a "collapse-like" reversal on February 5, driven by concentrated long position liquidation and passive selling from leveraged ETFs, leading to a rapid amplification of declines, with a notable absence of retail buying support [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline exhibited a structural characteristic of "index relative restraint, internal market volatility," with selling pressure concentrated in the Nasdaq, technology, and semiconductor sectors, which had previously led the market [1][4] - Approximately 75% of stocks outperformed the S&P 500 during the decline, indicating that the pain was concentrated in a few crowded momentum trades rather than a broad market downturn [2] - The momentum index MSZZMOMO fell about 7.7% in a single day, marking an extreme volatility event, primarily driven by long positions [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Selling pressure was heavily focused on previously leading sectors such as AI, national security, and Bitcoin mining stocks, while cyclical, chemical, and banking sectors showed relative strength, indicating a rotation away from high-beta themes [4][5] - The leveraged ETF rebalancing contributed approximately $18 billion in selling pressure, particularly affecting the Nasdaq and technology sectors, with significant impacts on several popular stocks [5] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail buying was notably absent, with net buying intensity at its lowest in the past year, primarily occurring during market rebound periods [6][7] - The lack of retail participation has directly suppressed momentum factors, as the stocks favored by retail investors overlap significantly with those used in momentum strategies [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term technical rebounds may occur, but Morgan Stanley suggests a "sell on the rebound" strategy due to ongoing deleveraging and weak retail demand ahead of the tax season, which could exacerbate future selling pressure [1][10][13] - Historical data indicates that after significant declines in the momentum index, stock performance tends to be negative in the following 1-2 months, with a median decline of approximately 22% [10]

Core Insights - Amazon's upcoming earnings report is a focal point for investors seeking insights into the growth prospects of the cloud computing industry, especially following Microsoft's stock decline due to Azure's slowing growth [1][3] - Concerns are rising about whether Microsoft's issues are company-specific or indicative of a broader slowdown in the cloud services sector, which could have lasting impacts [3] - Analysts expect Amazon's AWS to report a 21% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $34.8 billion, as investors look for catalysts to boost Amazon's stock price [3][6] Valuation and Market Expectations - Amazon's stock has underperformed, rising only 5.2% over the past year, compared to a 20% increase in the Nasdaq 100 index [4] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for Amazon is around 24 times, significantly lower than its 10-year average of 46 times, indicating a relatively cheap valuation [4] - Post-earnings report, Amazon's stock is anticipated to experience about a 7% volatility, as investors seek high growth rates to meet market expectations [4] Key Financial Data Outlook - Analysts project Amazon's total revenue for Q4 to grow by 13% to $211.5 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to rise by 8% to $2.40 [6] - The previous earnings report saw a nearly 10% stock surge due to better-than-expected AWS revenue, but current market sentiment is cautious due to a broader "anti-software" sentiment affecting the tech sector [6] Capital Expenditure and AI Investment Strategy - Investors will closely monitor Amazon's future capital expenditure guidance and its specific investments in artificial intelligence, especially in light of Microsoft's aggressive AI spending [7] - Amazon's investment in Anthropic PBC, amounting to $8 billion, and potential $50 billion investment in OpenAI are key points of interest, as these could enhance Amazon's earnings [7] - The performance of Amazon's AI chatbot "Rufus" in the retail business will also be scrutinized to assess the effectiveness of AI technology in core operations [7] Cloud Business as a Core Indicator - Despite Amazon's diversified revenue streams, the cloud business remains the primary focus for investors, with AWS being described as the "crown jewel" of the company [8] - A stable and clear outlook for AWS is essential for maintaining investor confidence, as it is the focal point of Amazon's growth narrative [8]

比特币周四一度跌破7万美元关键心理关口，这是该加密货币自15个月前以来首次触及这一水平，全球风险资产抛售潮将这一全球最大加密货币 推入新一轮下行通道。 Monarq Asset Management管理合伙人Shiliang Tang表示，市场目前正在经历一场"信心危机"。考虑到现任政府曾承诺加强美国在数字资产领域的 领导地位，7万美元被视为重要心理关口。因此部分市场观察人士认为，随着7万美元失守，短期可能触发更大规模抛售。 周四美股盘前交易中，比特币一度跌至69,821美元的低点。自去年10月触及峰值以来，比特币已累计下跌超过44%，目前徘徊在特朗普2024年11 月赢得大选以来的最低水平附近。与此同时，总市值自去年10月峰值以来已蒸发1.7万亿美元，仅过去一周就损失超过4600亿美元。 据Coinglass数据，过去24小时内，各类代币的多头头寸清算规模达7.22亿美元。交易平台SynFutures首席运营官Wenny Cai指出，清算规模巨大， 市场情绪已转向风险规避，价格走势目前更多由资产负债表机制驱动，而非叙事逻辑。 比特币作为市场压力下避险资产的角色正遭受越来越多质疑。该代币今年迄今已下跌近20% ...

华尔街主要投行普遍认为，谷歌最新公布的"爆炸性"资本开支计划，将对其短期盈利结构与自由现金流形成显著挤压，市场关注焦点已从营收增 长转向资本回报的可持续性。 Google Cloud在本季度展现出超预期的增长动能与盈利质量。云业务收入达177亿美元，同比增长47.8%，增速较上季度显著提升，并超出市场预 期约9个百分点。更关键的是，其运营利润率环比大幅提升6个百分点至30.1%，显著高于市场此前22.7%的预期，显示出强劲的规模效应与定价能 力。 据追风交易台，摩根士丹利报告指出，谷歌母公司Alphabet最新季度业绩表现强劲，营收与利润均超预期，但公司同步宣布的2026年资本开支指 引高达1750-1850亿美元，规模接近市场此前预期的两倍，相当于2023年全球主要科技巨头数据中心资本支出总和的三成以上。这一激进扩张计划 立即引发投资者对其盈利可持续性的深度关切。 尽管搜索业务重现活力、云业务维持高增长且利润率显著提升，为战略投入提供了财务基础，但巨额资本支出已开始挤压盈利空间。据摩根士丹 利测算，2026与2027财年公司每股自由现金流将分别骤降约58%和80%。 当前核心分歧在于：在AI投资回报周期尚未 ...

作者 | 柴旭晨 编辑 | 周智宇 李斌最终还是实现了2025年初的许诺，拿下"四季度盈利"的关键高地，稳住了军心。 2月5日，蔚来公布盈利预告。公告显示，根据对公司未经审计合并管理账目及董事会目前可得资料的初步评估，2025年第四季度，蔚来首次 录得单季度经调整经营利润。按照非公认会计准则，蔚来在同期的经营利润预计达到人民币2亿元至7亿元。 这意味着，在经历了漫长的投入期、质疑声与市场博弈后，蔚来终于打破了亏损的魔咒，迎来了公司成立以来的首次单季度经调整经营利润 转正。当日盘前，蔚来美股直线拉升10多个百分点。 回望过去几年，蔚来始终笼罩在"卖一辆亏一辆"的阴影下。巨额的研发投入、铺设换电补能网络的重资产模式，以及以用户服务为核心的高 昂运营成本，曾让其贴上了"烧钱机器"的标签。很多消费者正因其巨额亏损而徘徊观望，迟迟不敢下手。 去年三月，李斌在内部会议上疾呼，"别家孩子都考上大学了，我们还在复读！"他直言，眼下活下来最重要，刺刀拼得漂亮不如打赢，因此 定下了Q4扭亏的军令状，并且对外开始听劝，有错就改，对内也展开了一系列组织架构调整，上马了CBU政策。 这一年来刀刃向内的调整有了结果。 新ES8、乐道L9 ...

在经历数月平静后，规模达9.6万亿美元的全球外汇市场波动率重新抬头，为交易员带来获利良机。 美元上周跌至四年低点，欧元则飙升至五年高位，全球货币市场正经历自去年4月以来最剧烈的波动。期权市场信号显 示，这种波动性将在未来数月持续，与2025年下半年主导市场的平静交易形成鲜明对比。 市场行情密集。美元走弱推动英镑升至2021年以来最高水平，瑞士法郎触及2015年以来最强水平。日元在关键大选前 逆势而行，一度接近四十年低点后剧烈震荡。 波动性激增主要源于政策制定的不可预测性。从特朗普威胁攻击格陵兰岛，到美联储政策方向的混乱，这些因素正在 削弱市场对美元的信心。剧烈波动为华尔街创造了盈利机会，它们可从波动价格中获取更高的交易成本。 交易员普遍认为，下一轮疯狂行情只是时间问题。野村国际驻伦敦高级外汇期权交易员Sagar Sambrani表示："在特朗 普总统任内，波动性可能迅速上升，且往往会更快地逆转走势。市场要么处于完全停滞状态——就像过去六个月那 样，要么陷入潜在混乱，多个关键点位被触发。" 关键价位接连失守 美元避险属性失效，特朗普"弱美元"政策预期加剧动荡 特朗普明显支持美元走弱，这与美国通常支持强势美元的立 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 英国央行政策利率 3.75%，预期 3.75%，前值 3.75%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets faced significant declines due to disappointing earnings reports from major companies across various sectors, leading to a negative market sentiment [1] Shipping Industry - Global shipping giant Maersk's stock plummeted by 7% after the company warned of deteriorating freight rates as the Red Sea routes reopen, with profit expectations for this year being slashed to between $4.5 billion and $7 billion, significantly lower than the $9.53 billion recorded in 2025 and below analysts' average estimate of $5.76 billion [4] - Maersk plans to focus on cost discipline, including cutting 1,000 jobs, which represents 15% of its corporate functions but less than 1% of total employees, with expected annual cost savings of $180 million [4] - The global container trade growth rate is projected to be between 2% and 4% this year, amidst a backdrop of significant supply pressure with nearly 7 million TEUs of capacity scheduled for delivery in the coming years, accounting for about 20% of the current global fleet [4] Automotive Industry - Volvo's stock fell by 14% after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter earnings, with an EBIT margin of only 2%, impacted by tariffs, increased discounts, and a strong Swedish Krona [5] - The CEO of Volvo highlighted the challenges posed by the cancellation of electric vehicle incentives in the U.S. and the need to adjust production to comply with EU tariffs on electric vehicle manufacturing [5] - Despite last year's poor performance, Volvo aims for higher sales and free cash flow by 2026, with new models like the EX60 electric SUV seen as crucial to its turnaround efforts [5] Telecommunications Industry - Vodafone's organic service revenue growth of 5.4% fell short of analysts' expectations of 6.03%, with the German market showing only a 0.7% increase, below the anticipated 1.02% [6] - The competitive landscape continues to pressure Vodafone's performance, with the UK market experiencing a 0.5% decline in organic service revenue, contrasting with the expected growth of 1.59% [6] - The CEO's ambitious transformation plan, which includes simplifying operations and divesting assets, has yet to yield significant recovery in core market growth [6]

春节临近，互联网江湖便传出一声惊雷。 2月5日，美团（3690.HK）发布公告，拟以7.17亿美元全资收购叮咚买菜。这不仅是2026年开年本地生 活领域最重磅的一笔交易，更意味着持续数年的"生鲜电商混战"和"前置仓之争"，在这一刻按下了加速 键，甚至可以说，它是生鲜电商上半场最后的收官之战。 根据公告，本次交易完成后，叮咚将成为美团间接全资附属公司，其财务业绩将并入美团集团财务报 表。本次收购，可以看作是美团在即时零售战事中从"烧钱抢市场"迈向"生态整合"的关键一步。 对于本次收购，叮咚买菜内部也发布了全员信。叮咚买菜创始人兼CEO梁昌霖在信中坦言，消息可能让 员工感到"意外"和"不安"，但他系统性地阐述了为什么选择美团。 梁昌霖表示："双方合并之后，叮咚的三大核心竞争力：极致的商品力，超预期的服务力，和通过供应 链系统打造的极致效率，不会因为合并而消失，反而会在更大的平台上发挥更大的价值。" 为什么是叮咚？ 在即时零售的竞争进入"拼刺刀"阶段后，竞争的焦点正从流量和补贴，转向对商户的赋能、商品供应链 的管理以及对整个零售生态的健康维护。此时收购叮咚，对美团而言是一次精准的"补强"。 生鲜品类是即时零售中高频 ...