越共中央第十四次全国代表大会在2026年1月23日结束后，越南把下一轮五年规划的"增速台阶"抬得很 高：2026—2030年实际GDP年均增速力争达到10%或以上。与过去五年6.5%—7.0%的目标、以及实际 6.2%（剔除2021年为7.2%）相比，这是一次明显加速。 第一大挑战：劳动力红利减弱，生产率压力陡增 在增长核算层面，高盛认为，劳动力因素已不再是可靠的"顺周期推手"。 研报指出，越南劳动年龄人口增速已明显放缓，劳动参与率也处于较高水平，这意味着通过"更多劳动 力"来拉动增长的空间极为有限。在这一现实约束下，政策目标转而高度依赖劳动生产率的跃升。 根据规划，未来五年越南希望将劳动生产率年均增速提升至约8.5%。高盛直言，这一假设本身就具有 相当挑战性： 换言之，如果生产率提升未能如期兑现，即便投资规模扩大，经济增长也可能遭遇边际回报递减的制 约。 据追风交易台，在最新发布的宏观研究报告中，高盛系统评估了越南未来五年力争实现"年均10%以上 实际GDP增长"的发展目标。在高盛看来，这一目标意味着越南经济增长轨迹将出现显著加速，但要在 中期内持续实现双位数增长，仍面临结构性约束与执行层面的双重挑战。 高 ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs identifies a potential recovery in Germany's manufacturing sector, which is crucial for the European economy, despite recent fluctuations in industrial output [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Germany's industrial production has been declining since its peak in 2017/18, but signs of a bottoming out were observed last year [1]. - A report indicates that January's industrial output is expected to rebound by 1.5% month-on-month following December's weakness, driven by order growth and improved business sentiment [3]. - The "Nowcasting" framework developed by Goldman Sachs shows that truck toll mileage and manufacturing sales are more accurate predictors of recent industrial output than traditional PMI data [2]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Manufacturing - The recovery in Germany's manufacturing is not uniform; significant structural disparities exist, particularly in the automotive and energy-intensive sectors, which continue to face challenges [5]. - The defense industry is highlighted as a key growth area, benefiting from expansionary fiscal policies, with expected increases in maintenance and procurement spending from 2024 to 2029 [6]. - The shift in Germany's growth narrative is moving from an export-driven model to one focused on domestic demand and security, with fiscal spending providing a stabilizing effect for the manufacturing sector [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs' dynamic factor model indicates that while order growth is strong, it is concentrated in sectors with significant backlogs, suggesting a longer lead time for production increases [4]. - The underlying industrial momentum is at a recent high, indicating a recovery driven by domestic demand is likely in the first half of 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent election victory of Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has led to increased pressure on the Japanese yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance to signal heightened vigilance to stabilize market expectations regarding fiscal expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Election Impact and Market Reaction - The direct trigger for the yen's depreciation was the policy expectation shift following Takashi's clear electoral victory, which is anticipated to lead to more aggressive fiscal spending [2]. - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party, led by Takashi, secured 316 out of 465 seats in the House of Representatives, marking the largest victory for a single party in post-war Japan [2]. - Takashi's post-election comments about potentially suspending the food sales tax for two years have raised concerns about fiscal health, further pressuring the yen and Japanese government bonds [2]. Group 2: Official Statements and Market Communication - Atsushi Mimura emphasized the government's ongoing commitment to monitor market movements with urgency and maintain open communication with the market [3]. - Satsuki Katayama's remarks included a warning about the potential for decisive measures, including intervention, in response to rapid fluctuations in the yen's value [3]. Group 3: US-Japan Coordination and Intervention Strategies - Katayama highlighted the importance of coordination with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, framing the responsibility for stabilizing the USD/JPY exchange rate as a shared obligation [4]. - Previous volatility in the yen was initially perceived as a potential intervention by Tokyo, but was later attributed to U.S. interest rate checks, indicating a complex interplay between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Fiscal Sustainability - As the yen weakened, Japanese stock markets and benchmark government bond yields rose, indicating a rapid reassessment of growth, inflation, and fiscal expansion expectations [5]. - Katayama reassured that the Takashi administration is focused on fiscal sustainability and will carefully monitor financial markets, with investors keenly observing the implementation of fiscal stimulus commitments and tax policy discussions [5].

投资者普遍认为量子计算依然停留在科幻阶段，但巴克莱最新研报指出，这种"太早了"的错觉，可能让你错过未来12个月最关键的趋势。 据追风交易台消息，巴克莱分析师团队最新发布了一份研报《量子计算：纠正投资者的最大误解》。 报告的核心逻辑非常直白：华尔街低估了技术爆发的速度，同时完全搞错了量子与经典算力（如英伟达）的关系。巴克莱认为，我们正处于从"实 验室玩具"走向"商业利器"的前夜。 误解一：量子计算"为时过早" 巴克莱给出的第一条纠偏是：别把量子计算当成"十年后才有结果"的纯远期主题。 当前市场普遍认为，能完美运行的"容错量子计算"（FTQC）要到2030年以后。这没错，但巴克莱提醒投资者，千万别忽视了中间的"赛点"。 巴克莱指出，2026年至2027年将是行业的分水岭，届时将实现"量子优势"（Quantum Advantage）。 更重要的是"怎么定义优势"。巴克莱认为，"当系统瞄准100个逻辑量子比特时，优势才算被证明"。它同时提醒，任何"优势宣称"都需要"强技术 数据"背书，否则更像营销而非拐点。 "我们预计未来12个月内就会有重磅公告……当系统能稳定运行100个逻辑量子比特时，量子优势将被证明。" 这就像 ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 华虹半导体涨超4%，腾讯音乐、小鹏汽车、百度涨超3%，中芯国际涨近3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair has sparked significant interest on Wall Street regarding his proposal for a new agreement between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, aimed at reshaping their relationship, potentially impacting the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market and fundamentally altering the Fed's balance sheet management [1][2]. Group 1: Proposed Agreement - Waller has called for a new version of the "1951 Agreement" to reform the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, which historically limited the Fed's footprint in the bond market and established its autonomy in monetary policy [2]. - The proposed agreement would clearly define the size of the Fed's balance sheet and align it with the Treasury's debt issuance plans, addressing concerns raised during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic regarding the Fed's extensive asset purchases [2][3]. Group 2: Treasury's Position - Treasury Secretary Yellen shares Waller's skepticism towards prolonged quantitative easing (QE), advocating for its use only in genuine emergencies and with coordination among government departments [3]. - A streamlined new agreement may stipulate that the Fed can only conduct large-scale Treasury purchases with Treasury approval, aiming to halt QE as market conditions allow [3]. Group 3: Asset Composition Shift - There is an expectation that a more substantive agreement could lead to a significant shift in the Fed's asset holdings, moving from medium- and long-term securities to Treasury bills with maturities of 12 months or less [4]. - This shift would enable the Treasury to reduce the issuance of notes and bonds or at least avoid significant increases in issuance [4][5]. Group 4: Market Risks and Concerns - While enhanced coordination may aim to lower borrowing costs for U.S. borrowers, any fundamental changes carry risks, including concerns about the Fed's independence and its potential alignment with fiscal policy [6]. - Analysts warn that a public agreement linking the Fed's balance sheet to Treasury financing could undermine the Fed's inflation-fighting mandate, leading to increased volatility and diminished attractiveness of U.S. assets [6]. Group 5: Skepticism on Formal Agreement - Some experts express skepticism about the likelihood of a formal agreement, suggesting that while cooperation may increase, it could also reduce the chances of a formalized arrangement [7]. - There are proposals for the Fed to exchange its $2 trillion mortgage-backed securities portfolio for Treasury bills, aimed at lowering mortgage rates, but this faces significant obstacles [7].

与此同时，资金流向数据显示，极其拥挤的非科技板块交易已显露疲态，科技板块的资金流入正在回暖。 十年通道底部的反击 科技股的这次"触底反弹"并非偶然。报告指出，过去三个月，资金从大型科技股疯狂出逃，涌入其他板块，其导火索是2025年第三季度财报季——那时市场 首次看到了科技巨头之外盈利增长扩散的迹象。 然而，周五的反弹或许标志着情绪的逆转。德银表示： 大型成长股与科技股相对于标普500指数其余部分的表现，从10月下旬位于其十年超额收益通道的顶部，一路跌至周四收盘时的底部，随后在周 五反弹。 上周五美股报复性反弹，道指首破5万点，标普涨近2%，创去年5月以来最佳单日涨幅，英伟达大涨7%，这仅仅是死猫跳，还是新一轮上涨的号角？ 据追风交易台，德意志银行在最新的研报中表示，这轮抛售的关键特征是：盈利预期实际上仍在上调，市场下跌完全由估值收缩驱动，而非基本面恶化。周 五的反弹或许标志着情绪的逆转。 这种剧烈的波动并非史无前例。分析师将其比作去年"Deepseek公告"后的市场反应，或是2024年7月对盈利放缓的担忧，甚至是2018年的资本支出消化期。 杀估值，而非杀业绩 最值得警惕的是，这次抛售本质上是对盈利可持续性的 ...

美股上周五强势反弹后，抛压并未解除。高盛交易团队指出，趋势跟随型资金仍可能在本周持续卖出， 叠加流动性走弱与期权市场负gamma格局，美股或延续震荡并放大波动。 据彭博，高盛交易台指出，标普500指数已触发趋势跟踪策略（CTA）减仓的短期阈值，这类不基于基 本面、而是顺势交易的系统策略，预计未来一周将保持净卖出状态，无论市场方向如何。 高盛测算显示，若市场再度走弱，本周可能触发约330亿美元的卖盘；若股市上涨，仍可能触发约87亿 美元的卖盘。对市场而言，这意味着即便指数出现反弹，也可能更容易遭遇资金流出带来的"上冲受 阻"。 高盛交易台同时强调，订单簿流动性显著变薄、以及期权交易商头寸从正gamma转向负gamma，可能 使盘中波动更剧烈。同时其他策略资金（如风险平价策略和波动率控制策略）仓位仍然偏高，叠加散户 流入变弱，市场下行风险增强。 CTA卖盘：本周"顺势减仓"或成主线 高盛表示，标普500已越过CTA的短期触发点，推动其卖出股票。该行预计，CTA在未来一周将继续净 卖出，并给出不同市场情形下的资金流量测算： 3、若重新下跌，可能触发卖出约330亿美元 更受关注的是"阈值效应"。高盛数据显示，若标普5 ...

Core Insights - The ruling coalition in Japan, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, has secured a majority in the recent House of Representatives election, leading to strong market expectations for fiscal stimulus and a bullish sentiment in the stock market [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 index futures rose approximately 3% in early trading, reflecting investor optimism regarding increased government spending, particularly in defense and technology sectors [1][2] - However, the yen and Japanese government bonds are under pressure, with the yen weakening to around 157.61 against the dollar, nearing the intervention threshold of 160 [1][4] Market Reactions - The election results have triggered a "risk-on" sentiment in financial markets, with the Nikkei index continuing its strong performance this year, up over 8%, significantly outperforming developed market indices [2] - Analysts suggest that "Takaichi trades" may dominate the market, focusing on sectors aligned with the government's investment agenda, such as defense and nuclear energy [2] Currency and Bond Market Dynamics - The yen's depreciation is expected to continue, with market participants anticipating potential official intervention due to concerns over fiscal sustainability [4] - Japanese government bonds face selling pressure, exacerbated by liquidity issues and concerns regarding the sustainability of government finances, leading global fund managers to reduce their exposure to Japanese bonds prior to the election [4] Central Bank Policy Outlook - Despite fiscal concerns, there has been a slight improvement in bond performance, easing upward pressure on yields [7] - Market focus is shifting towards the Bank of Japan's policy direction, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [7]

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index opened up by 1.5% [1] - The Seoul Composite Index opened up by 4.1% [1] - Spot gold rose to approximately $5040, increasing by 1.6% during the day [1] - Spot silver surpassed the $80 mark, with a daily increase of over 3% [1] Group 2 - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds increased by 6.5 basis points, reaching 3.615% [1]