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不支持降息!美联储古尔斯比CPI出炉后“放鹰”
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-14 01:00
当地时间周五,美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示,在支持再次降息前,他希望看到通胀在回落至美联 储2%目标的道路上取得更多进展。 这表明,在当前经济条件下,古尔斯比暂不支持降息。 古尔斯比暗示,在达到他所认为的中性利率(既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的利率水平)之前,美联储仍 有进一步降息空间。 在谈及当前利率水平时,古尔斯比表示:"我不确定当前政策的紧缩程度有多大。通胀已经有超过4年半 的时间高于目标水平了,在开始降息之前,我们需要看到通胀切实改善,而不是指望它自行好转。" 不过,在美国1月通胀数据公布后,交易员加大押注,认为美联储有望在2026年内降息超过两次。 美联储下次会议将在3月17日-18日召开。据CME"美联储观察",目前美联储3月降息25个基点的概率为 9.8%,维持利率不变的概率为90.2%。 周五公布的数据显示,美国1月消费者价格指数(CPI)年率录得2.4%,创2025年5月以来新低,低于市 场预期的2.5%。剔除食品和能源成本的核心CPI同比上涨2.5%,创2021年3月以来新低,符合预期。 尽管美国1月通胀比市场预期更为温和,但仍高于美联储2%的目标。 古尔斯比表示,尽管周五的通胀报告显现出些 ...
建合资公司 福特CEO与特朗普官员讨论中国车企在美造车
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-14 00:35
Group 1 - Ford CEO Jim Farley has discussed a potential plan with senior officials from the Trump administration regarding Chinese automakers producing cars in the U.S. through partnerships with American companies [1][2] - The proposed framework allows Chinese automakers to establish joint ventures with U.S. manufacturers, where the American company would hold a controlling stake, enabling profit and technology sharing [1] - Discussions are in the informal and preliminary stage, with no definitive conclusions reached yet [2] Group 2 - Farley attended the Detroit Auto Show with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin to discuss this idea [2] - President Trump expressed openness to Chinese automakers entering the U.S. market if they build factories and hire American workers [2] - Despite the discussions, the proposed joint venture concept has faced skepticism from Trump administration officials, who believe it may encounter opposition in Washington [2] Group 3 - Ford has been negotiating to expand its battery supply partnership with BYD and exploring manufacturing collaboration with Geely in Europe [2] - The company recently expanded its licensing agreement with CATL to include the production of stationary energy storage for utilities and data centers [2] - Reports of a potential joint venture between Ford and Xiaomi for car manufacturing in the U.S. have been categorically denied by both parties [3]
特朗普因素搅局中东,据称部分欧佩克+国家酝酿4月重启增产
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-13 23:17
欧佩克+(石油输出国组织及其盟友)成员国的一些代表们透露,现在有空间恢复今年第一季度季节性需求疲软期间暂 停的增产计划。 最新消息显示,一些欧佩克+成员国代表认为,该联盟有空间在4月份恢复原油增产,他们还认为外界对全球石油市场供 应过剩的担忧被夸大了。 根据国际能源署(IEA)的说法,去年全球石油库存以自新冠疫情以来最快的速度累积,原因是欧佩克+以及另外一些 美洲产油国(巴西、圭亚那等)产量上升。 去年4月,沙特出人意料地主导欧佩克+快速恢复2023年以来暂停的产量,尽管当时市场普遍警告全球供应已相当充足, 此举令原油交易员震惊。 部分欧佩克+代表称,那次政策转向旨在夺回此前因减产而被竞争对手(如美国页岩油生产商)抢占的市场份额。有分 析猜测,沙特此举也可能是为了讨好特朗普——他曾多次呼吁 欧佩克协助降低燃油价格。 目前尚不清楚该组织在3月1日线上会议上是否会正式批准进一步增产,只是有消息称,他们倾向于增加产量。 去年,8个核心欧佩克+成员国同意逐步增加原油产量,但在今年1月、2月和3月暂停增产步伐,目前仍有日均约120万桶 的产量尚未恢复。 透露消息的代表强调,欧佩克+尚未在3月1日会议前承诺采取任何具体行 ...
CPI报告后华尔街改写利率剧本,现预计美联储年内降息“2.5次”
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-13 23:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent U.S. inflation data has led traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates more than twice by 2026, which has driven up U.S. Treasury prices [1] - The January CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%, and down 0.3 percentage points from 2.7% in December 2025, marking the lowest level since June of the previous year [1] - Traders are now expecting a cumulative rate cut of approximately 63 basis points by the end of the year, indicating a likelihood of two to three rate cuts, with a strong possibility of initiating cuts before the July meeting [1] Group 2 - The recent auction of newly issued 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds saw historically strong demand, reflecting investor confidence that yields will not rise again despite geopolitical tensions and significant fiscal deficits [2] - The positive reaction to the inflation data is somewhat tempered by the ongoing improvement in the labor market, which reduces the necessity for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - There is an indication that recent market movements may be more influenced by a shift in risk sentiment rather than the economic data itself [2]
通胀降温难抵AI忧虑,美股三大指数周线齐跌,中概股涨跌不一
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-13 22:20
Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.10% at 49,500.93 points, the S&P 500 up 0.05% at 6,836.17 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% at 22,546.67 points [2] - Concerns over AI disruption led to market volatility, affecting various sectors including software, real estate, trucking, and financial services [5] - Notable declines included Charles Schwab down 10.8%, Morgan Stanley down 4.9%, and software company Workday down 11% [5] Inflation Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.4% year-over-year increase in January CPI, with a 0.2% month-over-month rise, both below market expectations [2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations [2] Company News - SpaceX is reportedly considering a dual-class share structure for its upcoming IPO, allowing certain shareholders, including Elon Musk, to maintain control despite lower ownership stakes [6] - Anthropic appointed former General Motors executive Chris Liddell to its board as it prepares for a potential IPO in 2026, indicating openness to going public by the end of this year [9] - Following the merger with xAI, Musk's team is exploring financing options to reduce high-interest debt, which has accumulated to nearly $18 billion, in preparation for a potential IPO [10] - Moderna reported fourth-quarter revenue of $678 million, a 30% year-over-year decline, with a loss of $2.11 per share compared to a loss of $2.91 per share in the same period last year [11]
2026春节出境“AI三件套”:药品现金变少,AI健康助手登场
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-13 15:37
凤凰网科技讯 2月13日,寒假开启,加上"史上最长春节假期"的刺激,直接催热了出境游。在今年的出 境游大军中,将"蚂蚁阿福"等国产AI应用装上手机陪伴自己的行程,成了新的趋势。 来自社交平台和旅行社的信息显示,"AI健康助理、AI行程规划、AI实时翻译",这些实用的AI应用, 因为能帮助解决出境后看病难、旅行计划制定等实际难题,正成为中国游客探索世界的"AI三件套"。 人在他乡,最担心的是水土不服,有个头疼脑热或者不舒服,又受限于语言、医疗保障等一系列现实困 难,没法及时地获得医疗健康服务。因此,在今年的出境游人群中,装上目前市面上火热的AI健康应 用——蚂蚁阿福的人不少。 上海的王女士向记者表示:"以前带孩子出国,半个箱子都是药。今年我只带了少量急救药,然后其他 的就准备靠阿福了"。有点不舒服,阿福能在快速给出建议。"帮我判断需要不需要去医院,减少很多不 必要的担忧和奔波。" 这种"安全感"在突发状况中体现得尤为明显。南京一位负责欧洲路线的旅行团团长透露,去年11月带团 期间,曾遭遇游客因雪天路滑骨折的情况。因为一时半会在当地就医有困难,团队立即通过蚂蚁阿福联 系国内医生进行了远程会诊,基于上传的X光片获得 ...
美国1月CPI通胀降温但风险未消,美联储或延续观望模式
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-13 15:24
Group 1 - The January consumer price index (CPI) in the U.S. recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, and below the market expectation of 2.5% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year, matching the expected value and marking the lowest since March 2021 [3] - The report indicates that inflation is cooling, but overall consumer prices remain approximately 25% higher than five years ago [3] Group 2 - The significant drop in used car prices by 1.8% month-on-month in January contributed to the core inflation decline [3] - Gasoline prices fell by 3.2% month-on-month and decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, marking the third decline in four months [3] - Grocery prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] Group 3 - Economists suggest that the inflation data may reflect one-time price increases at the beginning of the year and the cost transmission effects from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [4] - The trade-weighted U.S. dollar index fell by approximately 7.4% last year, which may contribute to inflationary pressures in the future [4] Group 4 - Despite the cooling inflation, the Federal Reserve faces complex policy decisions, aiming to maintain inflation around 2%, a target that has not been met for about five years [5] - The strong job growth reported prior to the inflation data, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, adds to the Fed's policy challenges [5] Group 5 - Consumer sentiment regarding high prices remains a primary concern, with inflation issues contributing to dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, potentially aiding Trump's political comeback [6] - Companies like PepsiCo and General Mills have indicated plans to lower some food prices to attract price-sensitive consumers, suggesting a potential softening in demand [6] Group 6 - Current signals from surveys and financial markets indicate that neither consumers nor investors are significantly worried about a sharp rebound in inflation [7]
误差仅容5分钟,这家公司要征服海外自动驾驶高地
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-13 15:22
Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities for Chinese autonomous driving companies, particularly focusing on the experience of Mushroom Car Union in Singapore and the competitive landscape in the autonomous driving sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Opportunities - The Middle East is seen as a hot market for autonomous driving, while Singapore presents stringent conditions for operation, such as strict punctuality requirements for buses [1][4]. - Mushroom Car Union has chosen to enter the Singapore market, which is characterized by high standards for public transport and a supportive regulatory environment [4][6]. - The company has secured a project for L4 level autonomous buses in Singapore, indicating a significant step in its international expansion [2][4]. Group 2: Technological Capabilities - Mushroom Car Union has developed a technology that integrates visual and solid-state LiDAR, achieving over 50% improvement in perception distance and a 70% reduction in false detection rates [8][12]. - The company has accumulated over 5 million kilometers of operational data in China, enhancing its technical maturity and product engineering capabilities [8][12]. Group 3: Employment and Social Impact - The introduction of autonomous buses is not seen as a threat to human drivers but rather as a solution to the shortage of bus drivers, particularly in Singapore where there is a significant gap in driver availability [10][14]. - The company aims to enhance the user experience by incorporating features that cater to the elderly and disabled, making autonomous buses more appealing compared to traditional options [15][12]. Group 4: Future Vision - The long-term goal of Mushroom Car Union is to become a leading global provider of autonomous driving solutions, focusing on public transportation and leveraging international partnerships [18]. - The company acknowledges the need for remote safety operators initially, transitioning towards fully autonomous operations as technology advances [17][16].
长城汽车与FF合作铁证?魏建军再回应:合作顺利
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-13 14:44
Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation between Great Wall Motors and Faraday Future (FF) is entering a deep implementation phase, with the FX Super One project progressing as planned, opening new avenues for Chinese automotive exports and expansion into the North American market [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - Great Wall Motors' Chairman Wei Jianjun confirmed that the collaboration with FF is advancing smoothly, indicating a strong commitment to the partnership [1]. - The recent strategic upgrade agreement between FF and Hebei Huanzhou Automotive Sales Co., Ltd. focuses on compliance certification, mass production, and delivery of the FX Super One in the U.S. market, as well as the joint development of three new models including the FX 4 [1][2]. - Hebei Huanzhou serves as a crucial intermediary linking FF and Great Wall Motors, facilitating resource integration and project implementation [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The upcoming mass production and delivery of the FX Super One, along with the launch of the FX 4 and other new projects, will enhance the strategic synergy between Great Wall and FF [3]. - The collaboration is expected to leverage FF's established brand presence and compliance systems in North America, combined with Great Wall's strengths in vehicle development and supply chain management, to create a new model for cost-effective and efficient overseas market entry for Chinese automakers [2][3]. - The partnership is seen as a validation of FF's EAI bridge strategy, potentially serving as a model for future collaborations between Chinese and American automotive industries, and showcasing the global reach of Chinese high-end manufacturing [3].
美国1月CPI环比增长0.2%,低于市场预期
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-02-13 13:45
美股期货转涨,道琼斯指数期货涨0.06%,标普500指数期货涨0.12%,纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.14%。 CPI数据公布后,市场预计2026年美联储将降息61个基点;就在数据公布前,这一预期为58个基点。 2月13日,美国1月CPI环比增长0.2%,预估为增长0.3%,前值为增长0.3%。1月CPI同比增长2.4%,预估 为增长2.5%,前值为增长2.7%。 美国1月核心CPI环比增长0.3%,预估增长0.3%,前值增长0.2%。美国1月核心CPI同比增长2.5%,预估 增长2.5%,前值增长2.6%。 ...