第二产业增加值499653亿元，增长4.5%； 1月19日，在国新办举行的新闻发布会上，国家统计局局长康义介绍2025年国民经济运行情况。 初步核算，2025年中国国内生产总值(GDP)达到1401879亿元。按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。 分产业看： 第一产业增加值93347亿元，比上年增长3.9%； 第三产业增加值808879亿元，增长5.4%。 分季度看： 一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%， 二季度增长5.2%， 三季度增长4.8%， 四季度增长4.5%。 从环比看，四季度国内生产总值增长1.2%。 2025年，面对国内外经济环境的复杂变化，我国国民经济运行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十 四五"胜利收官。 "十四五"期间，中国经济总量连续跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元、140万亿元关口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rongbai Technology is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for allegedly misleading statements regarding a significant contract announcement, which has raised concerns about market integrity and transparency [6][12]. Group 1: Investigation and Regulatory Actions - On January 14, 2026, Rongbai Technology disclosed a major contract that is now under scrutiny for potentially misleading statements, leading to a formal investigation by the CSRC [6]. - The CSRC has initiated a case against the company, emphasizing the need to maintain a healthy and stable market environment [6][12]. - Following the investigation announcement, Rongbai Technology's stock was suspended from trading starting January 14, 2026 [7]. Group 2: Contract Details and Company Response - Rongbai Technology signed a procurement cooperation agreement with CATL, committing to supply 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials from Q1 2026 to 2031, with an estimated total sales amount exceeding 120 billion yuan [6][10]. - The company clarified that the 120 billion yuan figure was an estimate and that the actual sales amount would depend on the final orders and material prices, indicating uncertainty in the sales figures [10]. - In response to inquiries from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Rongbai Technology stated that there was no intention to manipulate stock prices through the announcement of large contracts, although it acknowledged that the original announcement lacked precision and adequate risk disclosures [11]. Group 3: Market Context and Other Companies - The CSRC has recently been active in investigating multiple companies for similar issues of misleading statements and significant omissions, indicating a broader regulatory focus on market integrity [12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have announced an adjustment to the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans, setting it at no less than 30% [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans, including "commercial-residential mixed-use properties," has been adjusted to a minimum of 30% [1] - Provincial branches of the People's Bank of China and local offices of the National Financial Regulatory Administration are allowed to determine the minimum down payment ratio for their respective cities based on local government regulations, adhering to the principle of "differentiated policies based on local conditions" [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of Yunnan in promoting high-level opening-up and establishing a radiation center towards South Asia and Southeast Asia, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's directives [1][13] - The implementation of cross-border digital payment systems, including the use of digital RMB and QR code payments, marks a significant advancement in financial integration between China and Laos, facilitating trade and investment [1][5] Financial Innovations and Developments - The launch of the cross-border direct bus service between China and Laos has introduced digital RMB and QR code payment services, enhancing payment convenience and supporting the internationalization of the RMB [1] - Yunnan's financial system has seen the establishment of over 1,200 cross-border RMB settlement enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a total cross-border RMB settlement amounting to 251.35 billion yuan, a 17.3% increase from the previous five-year period [1] Cross-Border Payment Systems - The cross-border payment system allows users from both countries to utilize their domestic payment applications for transactions, significantly improving the convenience for Laotian students and residents in Yunnan [4] - By the end of November 2025, over 58,000 QR codes for aggregated payments had been deployed in Xishuangbanna, covering various life scenarios for foreign visitors [4] Economic Transformation - The border economy is transitioning from a "channel economy" to an "industrial economy," supported by financial services and resources, with loans in key border areas increasing by 8.63% year-on-year [9] - The establishment of a comprehensive payment service system, including support for foreign currency exchange and cash withdrawal ATMs, has enhanced the overall cross-border trade experience [4][9] Cross-Border Trade and Settlement - The establishment of stable cross-border RMB settlement channels between Chinese and Laotian banks has facilitated smoother trade transactions, with significant increases in cross-border RMB settlement volumes [11][12] - The total cross-border RMB settlement in Xishuangbanna reached 28.539 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 3.04 times increase compared to the previous five-year period [12] Future Outlook - Yunnan is positioned as a crucial strategic point in China's dual circulation development pattern, leveraging its unique geographical advantages to enhance financial integration and support the Belt and Road Initiative [13] - Continued financial innovations and supportive national policies are expected to further strengthen Yunnan's role in regional economic development and connectivity [13]

本报讯 记者余嘉欣 孙榕报道 1月15日，金融监管总局召开2026年全面从严治党工作会议暨专题警示教 育会，学习贯彻习近平总书记在二十届中央纪委五次全会上的重要讲话和全会精神，总结2025年金融监 管总局系统全面从严治党工作，安排部署2026年重点任务。金融监管总局党委书记、局长李云泽出席会 议并讲话，驻金融监管总局纪检监察组组长、党委委员杨国瑞主持会议，传达二十届中央纪委五次全会 精神并讲话，金融监管总局党委班子成员出席会议。 会议指出，2025年，金融监管总局党委以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻习近平 总书记关于党的建设的重要思想、关于党的自我革命的重要思想，扎实推进全面从严治党各项工作。坚 决有力抓好中央巡视整改，认真开展深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育，一体推进风腐同查同治，持 续加强金融监管总局系统党的纪律建设，不断推动全面从严治党向纵深发展、向基层延伸。 会议强调，2026年，金融监管总局系统要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻 党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，全面落实二十届中央纪委五次全会部署，深刻领悟"两个确立"的决 定性意义，增强"四个意识"、坚定"四个 ...

Group 1 - The overall scale of digital consumption in China exceeds 23.8 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the world's largest online retail market for 13 consecutive years, reflecting the strong potential of domestic demand and consumption upgrade driven by the digital economy [1] - The central economic work meeting has prioritized "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" as a key task for 2026, which is crucial for economic recovery and the construction of a new development pattern [1] - Various government departments are committed to enhancing domestic demand and consumption, with specific actions outlined by the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, and the People's Bank of China [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for financial support to expand domestic demand, particularly in key areas such as service consumption and small and micro enterprises, while promoting credit investment in the service consumption sector [2] - Achieving a balance between "demand" and "promotion" is essential for sustainable expansion of domestic demand and quality improvement of consumption, requiring enhanced consumer confidence and the removal of barriers to consumption upgrade [2] - The focus of expanding domestic demand will increasingly shift towards service consumption, elderly consumption, and green consumption, necessitating both policy guidance and market-driven efforts [2] Group 3 - A coordinated policy approach across various sectors, including fiscal, financial, and industrial policies, is necessary to boost consumption and market confidence, with a focus on a supportive monetary policy environment [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance support for key areas of service consumption and to optimize consumer finance services, thereby improving the payment experience in critical consumption scenarios [3] - Market participants are actively innovating to meet new consumer demands, particularly in high-frequency daily consumption areas such as healthcare, beauty, education, and home improvement [3] Group 4 - The market should leverage technology and innovative models to meet consumer demands for product upgrades and service consumption expansion, fostering a mutually reinforcing relationship between consumption upgrade and industrial transformation [4] - A fair and orderly market environment is essential for optimizing resource allocation and promoting the development of new consumption growth points within the framework of a unified national market [4] Group 5 - Recent initiatives by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments aim to enhance financial support for green consumption loans, encouraging collaboration between financial institutions and trade enterprises [5] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the support scope of service consumption and elderly re-loans, with potential inclusion of the health industry once standards are established [5] - The collaborative efforts across various sectors are expected to strengthen the foundation for high-quality economic development in China [5]

Core Viewpoint - The renewal of the bilateral currency swap agreement between the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Canada aims to enhance financial cooperation and facilitate trade and investment between the two countries [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The renewed currency swap agreement has a scale of 200 billion RMB [1] - The agreement is valid for five years and can be extended upon mutual consent [1] Group 2: Implications - The agreement is expected to strengthen financial cooperation between China and Canada [1] - It will promote the use of local currencies in bilateral trade [1] - The initiative aims to enhance the convenience of trade and investment between the two nations [1] - It contributes to maintaining financial stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Opinions" marks a new phase in the financial support system for regional development strategies, emphasizing the role of capital markets in supporting enterprises along the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [2][3]. Group 1: New Opportunities for Chengdu-Chongqing Region - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor construction provides new opportunities for high-quality development in the Chengdu-Chongqing region, with a focus on enhancing capital market functions [2]. - The region's strategic positioning as a dual hub (Chengdu International Railway Port and Chongqing International Logistics Hub) is highlighted by its significant trade volume, which exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan in 2023, with 35% of freight volume attributed to the new corridor [2]. - Chengdu-Chongqing region has 257 listed companies as of 2024, with direct financing exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 38% of the total in the western region [2]. Group 2: New Mission for Chengdu-Chongqing Region - The financial support for the Western Land-Sea New Corridor faces challenges such as regional development imbalances, weak financial infrastructure, and cross-border financial rule conflicts [3]. - To address these challenges, a systematic strategy is needed to leverage capital markets for resource allocation, risk diversification, and value discovery [3]. - The focus is on market-oriented reforms, enhancing the vitality and service capacity of capital markets, and improving policy coordination [3]. Group 3: Capital Market as a Pillar for Financial Support - The Chengdu-Chongqing capital market has become a cornerstone for transforming financial support policies into development momentum, with significant achievements in multi-level capital market systems [4]. - The establishment of the "Land-Sea New Corridor Special Board" aims to enhance direct financing to 30% by 2025, while a 100 billion yuan "Land-Sea New Corridor Science and Technology Fund" supports innovation in logistics and cross-border e-commerce [4]. - A collaborative regulatory platform between Sichuan and Chongqing is being developed to unify information disclosure standards and risk management processes [4]. Group 4: Diverse Financing Channels - The construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor requires substantial funding, characterized by large scale, long cycles, and high risks [6]. - Capital markets are innovating financing tools, with over 8 billion yuan raised by companies like Chongqing Port and Chengdu Road and Bridge for infrastructure projects [6]. - The issuance of "Land-Sea New Corridor Special Bonds" and the first green REITs by Chongqing Water Group raised 1.5 billion yuan for ecological logistics park construction [6]. Group 5: Optimizing Institutional Supply - The integration of innovation chains, industry chains, and funding chains is essential for driving development [7]. - The gradual release of registration system reform benefits is guiding capital towards core areas of the corridor economy, with 12 new companies listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2023 [7]. - The establishment of a data asset market is underway, with a projected issuance of 5 billion yuan in data asset securitization products by 2024 [7]. Group 6: Mergers and Acquisitions for Industry Integration - Capital market functions are facilitating vertical integration of industries along the corridor, with companies like Tongwei Co. acquiring assets to form a complete industry chain [8]. - A joint investment fund of 50 billion yuan is being established to focus on multi-modal transport and cross-border e-commerce [8]. - Companies are also pursuing green transformation initiatives, such as Chongqing Iron and Steel's fundraising for environmental upgrades [8]. Group 7: Risk Prevention Mechanisms - A comprehensive risk prevention system is being developed to address cross-border and market risks associated with the corridor [9]. - The establishment of a regulatory sandbox for corridor-related listed companies aims to manage risks effectively [9]. - Financial risk stress testing is being expanded to the logistics sector, ensuring supply chain stability [9]. Group 8: Policy Coordination and Implementation - A four-dimensional implementation system is proposed to transform policy dividends into new development momentum, focusing on policy coordination, empowerment of entities, factor upgrading, and open cooperation [10]. - A collaborative financial regulatory mechanism is being established to streamline policies related to enterprise listings and cross-border financing [10]. - The introduction of a green channel for listings aims to facilitate the financing of corridor-related enterprises [10].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies to stabilize and enhance economic growth, focusing on optimizing fiscal management and tax policies to support consumption and investment [1][2]. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - The conference highlights the importance of maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures to enhance macroeconomic governance [1]. - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to reach 134.9 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5%, driven by final consumption, capital formation, and net exports [1]. - Domestic demand contributed 70% to economic growth, serving as a stabilizing force [1]. Tax Policy and Consumption - The 2025 conference prioritizes domestic demand and plans to implement actions to boost consumption, including optimizing tax structures and enhancing income distribution [2]. - Tax policies can stimulate household consumption by increasing disposable income, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, who have a higher marginal propensity to consume [2][3]. - Reducing specific goods' tax rates can lower final prices, thereby stimulating consumer demand [4]. Investment and Economic Capacity - The conference calls for measures to stabilize and increase investment, which is crucial for both current demand and future production capacity [5][6]. - Increased investment leads to higher capital stock, enhancing productivity and economic potential [6]. - Tax policies that lower corporate tax burdens can encourage investment by improving after-tax returns [7][8]. Export and International Competitiveness - The conference emphasizes the role of exports in driving economic growth and improving international competitiveness through tax incentives [9][11]. - Export tax rebates and reductions in corporate income tax for export-oriented enterprises can enhance profitability and reinvestment capabilities [11][12]. - Recent improvements in export tax rebate processing times have positively impacted export sales revenue [12]. Structural Reforms and Future Directions - The focus is shifting from broad tax reductions to structural tax optimization, aiming to enhance consumer purchasing power and reduce business costs [16]. - The government plans to implement targeted tax incentives to support innovation and high-tech industries, promoting sustainable economic growth [15][16].

2025复盘与2026趋势预判 《金融时报》记者：2025年全球经济在贸易政策、货币政策等多重因素影响下经历了显著波动，尤 其是美国在特朗普总统上任后推出了一系列备受关注的政策。首先请您整体回顾一下2025年，并展望 2026年全球宏观经济发展趋势。 温彬：2025年随着美国新任总统特朗普的上台，其推出的一系列政策显著增加了全球经济的不确定 性和运行风险。"对等关税"的推出一度对全球贸易产生重大影响，特朗普外交政策的转向也令盟友措手 不及。二季度美元资产的大幅波动削弱了"美国经济例外论"，也令特朗普的政策趋于妥协和缓和。随着 下半年各国与美国贸易谈判落地，贸易政策不确定性下降，全球资产也由"TACO交易"（特朗普总是临 阵退缩）转向美联储的降息交易。 展望2026年，特朗普的政策将沿着"中选为纲，关税调整，注重民生，财货双松"的路径前行；欧洲 将继续在地缘政治夹缝中寻求独立自主；日本则将面临高市经济学的挑战，整体看政策的不确定性将小 于2025年，风险趋向于收敛。美国、欧洲、日本等国家货币政策将继续向中性利率靠拢，其中美国和英 国仍有数次降息空间，欧元区将保持在较为平衡的利率水平，日本则在通胀压力下保持缓慢加 ...