走过大半辈子，经历了六十年人生路（含三十多年职场路），一路走来一路思考，多多少少有些感想， 在这里写出来跟大家探讨。无所谓对错，都是个人的看法。 一、中国必然强大，但不等于人人都好过 世界并不太平，并没有朝越来越好的方向演变，不确定性很高，谁都没法预测未来。世界格局正在经历 调整，由一家独大到双雄相争，带来一系列的动荡是不可避免的。 我认为，不管怎样，中国超越美国，成为全球第一大经济体，是必然的事。只要保持稳定，内部不出乱 子，哪怕中国暂时也面临很大挑战，但长远看，超越基本就是铁板钉钉的事。 一方面，中国现在已经打好了基础，有了很好的底子，第一制造大国的优势将会持续，而且还具备4个 有利条件： 一则中国人是聪明、勤劳、进取心极强的群体，自尊心强，民族自豪感也强。与前面30年相比会有所放 缓，但跟世界其他国家比，这种前进的动力仍然是最强的。 二则中国具备集中力量办大事的体制，决策力强，又有调节地区发展不平衡的能力，还有激发个体发挥 潜能的机制，因此有能力平衡各方诉求和发展。 三则中国是统一的大市场，本国市场就足够大。 四则中国在科技创新方面不落下风。 综合而言，中国成为世界强国的有利因素还是很多的。不过，国强不 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to the theory of innovation-driven economic growth [1][3][4] - The prize money amounts to 11 million Swedish Krona, with half awarded to Mokyr and the other half shared by Aghion and Howitt [2][3] Group 2 - Joel Mokyr is recognized for identifying the conditions necessary for sustained growth through technological advancement, emphasizing the mutual reinforcement between scientific breakthroughs and practical applications [3][10] - Mokyr's research highlights that the modern economic growth initiated post-Industrial Revolution was not due to a single technological breakthrough but rather a paradigm shift in human inquiry [10][39] - Aghion and Howitt are acknowledged for their theory of "creative destruction," which explains that economic growth is achieved through innovation that displaces outdated products and practices [4][45] Group 3 - Mokyr's work indicates that the continuous flow of "useful knowledge" is essential for sustained economic growth, contrasting the pre-Industrial Revolution reliance on normative knowledge [28][30] - Aghion and Howitt's model illustrates that "creative destruction" is the core driver of sustained growth, where new enterprises and jobs replace outdated ones, fostering a competitive environment [35][36] - Their research suggests that both high and low market concentration can hinder innovation, indicating the need for policies to manage market dynamics effectively [37][48] Group 4 - Mokyr emphasizes the importance of societal acceptance of change, as technological advancements can create both winners and losers, necessitating support for those affected [31][38] - The collaboration between Aghion and Howitt has led to significant advancements in understanding the relationship between innovation, competition, and economic growth [22][45] - Their work has implications for various fields, including education policy and financial structures, highlighting the role of government in facilitating innovation while managing its social costs [47][48]

小米，再次陷入了"大麻烦"中：2025年10月13日凌晨3时16分左右，四川成都天府大道仁寿视高段发生一起涉及小米SU7 Ultra的交通事故，驾驶员不幸遇 难。 回顾小米SU7和SU7 Ultra的整个上市历程，"性能"一直是非常重要的标签。 1. 当事小米SU7 Ultra在事故前的驾驶行为莽撞且不安全，包括十字路口左拐漂移，在最右侧车道超速行驶； 2. 车辆在超速状态下先与另一辆轿车（疑似是出租车）发生碰撞，然后再次与绿化带发生碰撞，随后翻滚至对向车道并起火； 3. 碰撞之后，路人发现有人员被困，多名路人主动参与救援，徒手或用工具尝试拉开车门、撞击车窗，也有车主尝试用二氧化碳灭火器控制火势，但最 终火势仍越来越大直至失控，路人被迫撤离。 中国新能源车能够在欧美性能车的"大本营"战胜燃油车，其价值绝对毫无疑问，图自小米 事故画面太过惨烈不放原图，今早网友拍摄的事故现场，粉碎的路牙子大概率就是导致起火自燃的原因。图自网友 得益于现场的多位目击者和成都公安今天下午公示的信息，事故的发生过程已经比较清晰： 值得重点注意的是，成都交警的通报中特别提到了"经检测，SU7 Ultra的驾驶员涉嫌酒后驾驶机动车"，大概 ...

Core Insights - The sales of fuel vehicles in China exceeded 902,000 units in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, with total sales for the first eight months reaching 8.747 million units, nearly matching last year's total [1] - The resurgence of fuel vehicles is seen as counterintuitive, as the market was expected to shift towards new energy vehicles focused on carbon neutrality [2][6] - The preference for fuel vehicles varies by region, with specific models gaining popularity in different areas, indicating a regional bias in consumer behavior [5][40] Sales Trends - Fuel vehicle sales have rebounded, with a nearly 5% year-on-year increase in the third quarter, while the growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed for the first time [22] - The increase in fuel vehicle sales is attributed to practical considerations, such as the challenges of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles [58][67] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly purchasing fuel vehicles due to the difficulties associated with charging electric vehicles, including long wait times and high installation costs for home charging stations [10][14] - The emotional connection to fuel vehicles is highlighted, with many consumers expressing a preference for the reliability and simplicity of fuel vehicles over the complexities of electric vehicles [19][38] Regional Preferences - Different regions exhibit distinct preferences for fuel vehicles, influenced by local conditions and consumer needs, such as climate and terrain [40][50] - In areas with extreme weather conditions, fuel vehicles are favored for their reliability, while in urban settings, the practicality of fuel vehicles is emphasized [67][68] Market Dynamics - The fuel vehicle market is evolving, with manufacturers adapting to consumer demands for reliability and cost-effectiveness, while also integrating advanced technologies to remain competitive [61][63] - The perception of fuel vehicles is shifting from being seen as outdated to being recognized for their practicality in specific scenarios, indicating a nuanced market landscape [69][70]

带着不满周岁的婴孩入住合租房，成为许多一二线城市年轻父母的选择。当渴望休息的上班族遇见深夜啼哭的婴儿，冲突一触即发，争议开始涌现。 争议背后是选项的缩水。当生育成本越来越高，薪资却越发窘迫，家庭资源有限的年轻父母，将合租生娃视为最后选择。 合租生娃 北京凌晨两点，眼看一岁多的孩子从睡梦中哼唧着醒来，出现要哭闹的迹象，28岁的小米从床上翻身爬起，心里一阵紧张。 小米和丈夫、还在襁褓中的儿子一起，住在一间客厅改造的卧室中。这是一套被打了隔断的两居室。一墙之隔后的主卧，被一位美甲店店主包下作为员工 宿舍，里面住着几位二十多岁的女孩，已经入睡。 由于墙体不隔音，哪边有点风吹草动，大家基本都能听清。在几次轻声哄睡不见效后，小米抱起孩子，快步出门，走进屋外的电梯间。 她哄着孩子一遍遍按电梯按钮。看着楼层数字的变化，小米开始安抚，怀里的孩子逐渐犯困，她才安心回到合租房里。 2025年春夏之交，自从13个月的孩子开始断奶，深夜外出哄娃的场景便频繁出现在小米的生活中。"孩子半夜总是醒，一睁眼就开始哭。"这段时间，为了 安抚孩子，她几乎没有睡过一个好觉。孩子有时在凌晨四五点醒来，小米只好推着婴儿车到小区里遛弯，等他睡着后，再回房 ...

Core Points - Microsoft will officially terminate support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025, which means no more technical assistance, feature updates, or security updates will be provided for the system, urging users to upgrade to Windows 11 [1][2] - The discontinuation of Windows 10 support will impact over 500 million users globally, as approximately 40.84% of users are still on Windows 10, while 49.05% have transitioned to Windows 11 [1][5] Group 1: Technical Aspects - Windows 10's underlying architecture is no longer compatible with modern hardware security requirements, making it difficult to support new features like TPM 2.0 and DirectStorage, which are better accommodated by Windows 11's modular design [3] - The service life of Windows 10's final version 22H2 has exceeded the standard support period of 18 months, lasting for 3 years [2] Group 2: User Sentiment and Behavior - Many users remain on Windows 10 due to satisfaction with its functionality and better support for older software, as well as a preference for not needing a Microsoft account [8] - Microsoft previously faced backlash from users for aggressively promoting the upgrade to Windows 11 through persistent full-screen notifications [4][5] Group 3: Security and Compliance Risks - The cessation of support for Windows 10 will lead to increased security risks, as unpatched vulnerabilities may be exploited by hackers, potentially resulting in data breaches and compliance issues for industries like finance and healthcare [9][10] - Companies relying on Windows systems for critical operations will face significant risks, as system stability is crucial for business continuity [10] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competition - The end of Windows 10 support may accelerate the migration to domestic operating systems, enhancing the market for these alternatives and improving user experience [11] - Microsoft has faced competition from other operating systems, such as Apple's macOS and iPadOS, which have diverted users away from Windows [15] Group 5: Microsoft's Historical Commitments - Microsoft had previously claimed that Windows 10 would be the last version of Windows, intending to provide continuous updates as a service, but this promise was broken with the release of Windows 11 [12][13] - The company has a history of making unfulfilled commitments, which has led to user dissatisfaction and skepticism regarding its future promises [16]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of pickleball and squash in urban China is attributed to the increasing costs of traditional sports like badminton and tennis, leading to a shift towards more affordable and accessible alternatives [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The cost of badminton courts in major cities has surged, with peak hours in Beijing reaching 200 yuan for two hours [2][4]. - Pickleball courts are being introduced in existing tennis facilities, allowing for higher utilization rates and lower costs for participants [4]. - The price of entry-level pickleball equipment ranges from 100 to 200 yuan, significantly lower than professional badminton rackets which can exceed 1,000 yuan [5]. Group 2: Social Dynamics - Pickleball is becoming a new social activity for various age groups, bridging generational gaps and providing a platform for interaction [8][10]. - The sport's low entry barrier and friendly atmosphere make it appealing for those who may feel intimidated by traditional sports [15][16]. - Participants report that pickleball serves as a remedy for modern loneliness, fostering connections among urban dwellers [11][42]. Group 3: Growth Statistics - Sales of pickleball equipment on platforms like Tmall surged by 1,100% during the 2025 "618" shopping festival [30]. - Over 20,000 people in Guangdong Province regularly play pickleball, with Shanghai reporting 130 courts as of April 2025 [31]. - The establishment of a structured competition system, including national tournaments, indicates the sport's rapid institutional growth [31]. Group 4: Cultural Impact - Pickleball is perceived as a low-pressure, enjoyable activity that contrasts with the competitive nature of traditional sports [48][49]. - The sport encourages a sense of community and shared experience, allowing individuals to connect beyond their professional identities [48][52]. - It provides a platform for social interaction that is less formal than traditional gatherings, enhancing the quality of connections among participants [24][42].

Core Insights - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding how technological change drives sustained economic growth [1] Group 1: Contributions of Joel Mokyr - Mokyr's work focuses on the origins and evolution of modern economic growth through systematic research of economic history [1] - He emphasizes the role of knowledge in economic growth, arguing that modern growth is significantly more dependent on knowledge compared to pre-modern economies [6][12] - Mokyr attributes the rise of knowledge's importance to the Enlightenment, which reshaped knowledge systems and encouraged scientific inquiry [7][8] Group 2: Contributions of Philippe Aghion - Aghion's research centers on innovation economics, particularly the concept of "creative destruction," which explains how technological progress disrupts old structures to foster economic growth [15][16] - He, along with Peter Howitt, developed a model that incorporates the randomness of technological research and its interaction with economic cycles [17] - Aghion also investigates the microeconomic mechanisms and institutional factors behind innovation, such as ownership structures and financing environments [18]

给几岁大的孩子穿内衣，教她们搔首弄姿的摆拍。让十来岁的小姑娘，穿渔网袜、做挑逗的动作，甚至 还有人把自己家孩子的私密影像当成商品来卖。更恶心的是，有些机构打着模特比赛、网红培养的幌 子，把孩子变成了牟利的工具。今天就来好好扒一扒，看看儿童颜色行业是怎么钻出来的？又是谁把无 辜的孩子推向了火坑？ ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of exposure to diverse ideologies and lifestyles in shaping one's beliefs and choices, particularly in a city like Shanghai that embraces various cultures [2][3] - Shanghai is portrayed as a city with a rich cultural landscape, where different lifestyles coexist, allowing individuals to make informed choices about their own paths [2][3] - The author emphasizes the value of experiencing life in a big city, suggesting that even temporary stays can provide significant personal growth and enjoyment [6][9] Group 2 - The article highlights the contrast between Shanghai and other cities, particularly regarding the perception of livability and cultural vibrancy, with Shanghai being viewed as more enjoyable and efficient [3][9][10] - It addresses the phenomenon of external perceptions of cities, noting that negative online reviews are common for many urban areas, including Shanghai, but these do not reflect the true experience of living there [11] - The discussion includes the economic implications of living in a city like Shanghai, where the rental market is emphasized as a viable option for those who do not wish to commit to long-term ownership [5][9]