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短期“利好出尽“,回调中可以挖掘哪些机会?
Hu Xiu· 2025-11-02 11:44
本篇评级为★★★,主要围绕以下内容展开: 如有疑问请以音频内容为准,添加妙投小虎哥微信:miaotou515,入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明:五星重磅,四星重要,三星级以下大家选择听。 1、中美关系缓和,如何影响稀土板块? 上周国内市场在临近结尾时出现异动:上证指数掉头向下,跌破4000点且未能重新站稳,深证指与创业 板指亦同步大幅下挫。面对接二连三的重大利好,市场为何仍现回调?我们系统盘点,寻找定力。 首先,对盘面影响最直接、权重最大的逻辑链来自外部扰动,尤其是中美谈判。最终公布的谈判结果超 预期,根据官方信息,未来一年两国关系有望进入稳定期。然而资本市场永远"抢跑",消息官宣后反而 成为"利好兑现"的触发器。部分资金借"靴子落地"之机兑现利润、短期离场——这在事件驱动型策略中 十分常见——其抽资行为带来短期抛压,体现为指数的快速回踩,但该因素并不具备决定性。中美谈判 所带来的利好将在未来一年持续发挥"稳市"作用。 本文为妙投付费内容,上述仅为摘要,购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会,在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 1、中美关系缓 ...
Q3业绩接近翻倍,增长可持续么?| 1030 张博划重点
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-30 13:41
Market Overview - The market experienced a significant drop in the afternoon, with high-dividend sectors like banks unable to support the decline in technology stocks [2] - Major indices fell close to their 5-day moving averages, with the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Stock Performance - Approximately 4100 stocks declined today, with nearly 10 stocks hitting the daily limit down, primarily those with poor Q3 earnings reports [2] - The sectors that saw gains included lithium batteries, quantum computing, and performance growth stocks, indicating some resilience in specific areas despite the overall market downturn [3] Sector Analysis - Lithium battery sector showed a notable increase with 14 stocks gaining, while quantum computing had 5 stocks up [3] - Performance growth stocks also had 17 stocks increasing, suggesting a focus on companies with strong earnings potential [3] - The shipping and non-ferrous metals sectors had minor gains, indicating mixed performance across different industries [3]
中美谈判利好落地,市场为何反转向下?
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-30 10:45
本篇评级为★★★,主要围绕以下内容展开: 今天有两大备受瞩目的消息,一个是美联储昨天晚上降息25个BP,另一个是中美元首会谈最终靴子落 地。 我们先来看第一条消息——美联储降息,两句话带过即可,因为它完全符合市场预期:降息25个BP、 符合预期;自12月1日起停止缩表,也符合预期。本质上,市场非常平静地消化了这一所谓利好,没有 产生任何长线或短期的扰动。 第二条消息我们重点谈一谈,即中美元首会谈。围绕这件大事,今天下午前后脚释放了两波消息。第一 波消息在下午2点左右发布,发布后市场出现明显下跌,许多投资者对此感到困惑:按理说如此重磅的 利好对外公布,市场理应有所反应,但最终结果却让人想不通。我们具体看一下第一波消息的内容—— 由新华社发布的通稿,其中并未提及任何具体谈判成果,仅泛泛地表示"两国经贸团队经过深入交换意 见,形成了解决问题的共识",后续要"尽快细化并敲定工作,将这些共识维护好、落实好,以实实在在 的成果给中美两国和世界经济吃一颗定心丸"。听上去,这是一份相对模糊的表述,显然无法满足市场 的胃口;大家期待的是"真金白银"、具体而明确的利好。 本文为妙投付费内容,上述仅为摘要,购买本专栏即可解锁完整内 ...
五万亿市值的英伟达,托起了谁的脊梁?
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-29 15:43
10月29日,美股一开盘,英伟达成为了史上第一个市值突破5万亿美金的公司。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI制图 一天前,在GTC DC大会上,英伟达CEO黄仁勋展示出来自AI的强劲需求。比如,他表示,今年及2026年,Blackwell和Rubin架构芯片可带来的收入超5000 亿美元,这个收入将来自2000万颗GPU。5000亿美元收入将是2023年~2025年Hopper架构芯片所带来收入的5倍。 在演讲中,黄仁勋又一次驳斥了AI泡沫论。 然而,伴随着5万亿市值,"AI泡沫论"的质疑声音也空前高涨。 英国央行的金融政策委员会(FPC)也表达了类似担忧。其最新季度报告称,美国股票市场"在若干指标上显示估值过高",尤其是集中在AI相关科技公司。 而这种高度集中使市场在AI预期降温时特别容易受到冲击。 在这场游戏中,英伟达们既是演员也是观众,钱从左口袋进,右口袋出。这究竟是通往未来的高速公路,还是一场比2000年互联网泡沫更盛大的烟火? 一、一场资本的内循环 这,要从一笔关联交易说起。 9月22日,英伟达宣布,将向OpenAI投资一笔高达1000亿美元的巨款。作为"回报 ...
Mate80 下个月发布,值得期待么?| 1029 张博划重点
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-29 15:05
| 连板数 | 晋级率 | | 2025-10-29连板股分布图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5进6 | 1/1=100% | 时空科技 (并购重组+存储芯片) | | | 4进5 | 1/2=50% | 平潭发展(福建) | | | 3讲4 | 1/3=33% | 亚士创能 (机器人) | | 10月29日,市场全天震荡拉升,三大指数高开高走,创业板指涨近3%创年内新高,沪指再度回升至4000点上方,北证50指数涨超8%。沪深两市成 交额2.26万亿,较上一个交易日放量1082亿。截至收盘,沪指涨0.7%,深成指涨1.95%,创业板指涨2.93%。 ...
政策隐藏利好兑现,新基建的背后逻辑
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-29 10:41
Group 1 - The article highlights the positive implications of important documents related to new infrastructure, indicating a significant focus on enhancing the modern industrial system and technological advancements [2] - The energy sector, particularly energy metals, has seen substantial gains, with the energy metal sector rising nearly 5%, strategic resources increasing over 3%, and the new energy sector overall rising about 6%, with solar energy and battery sectors also showing strong performance [2] - The emphasis on new infrastructure is crucial for maintaining the core competitiveness of the industrial system in international competition, suggesting that greater efforts in new infrastructure are necessary for efficient operations, lower costs, and improved support systems [2] Group 2 - The potential outcomes of Sino-U.S. negotiations may release two favorable conditions that could impact related industries positively [1]
工业富联订单做不完,A股谁能拿下外溢订单?| 1028 张博划重点
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-28 15:03
Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index broke the 4000-point mark, reaching a ten-year high on October 28, with a peak increase of over 1% before retreating [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 192.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.15% [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Fujian Free Trade Zone/Haixi concept, PCB boards, and solid-state batteries, with notable increases in their respective stocks [2] - The DRAM (memory) sector showed significant activity, reflecting ongoing trends in semiconductor demand [2] - Other sectors such as quantum computing and robotics also demonstrated growth, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities [2]
央行重启买债,意味着什么?
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-28 10:46
Group 1 - The central bank's decision to restart secondary market bond trading indicates a shift in monetary policy, likely aimed at stabilizing the bond market and supporting fiscal initiatives as the year-end approaches [3][4]. - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing following the announcement, suggesting a positive response from investors after a period of cooling [3]. - The timing of this decision aligns with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for early investment in major projects, reflecting a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies [4]. Group 2 - The military and Fujian sectors are highlighted as areas of potential opportunity and risk, although specific details on these sectors are not provided in the summary [1]. - The article raises questions about the duration of the recent pullback in gold prices, indicating ongoing market interest in precious metals [1].
AI 全球“斗蛐蛐”,中国队胜出
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-28 08:44
Core Insights - The article discusses a financial competition involving six top AI models, highlighting their performance in real market conditions and the differences in their trading strategies [1][2][13]. Group 1: Competition Overview - The competition is organized by Nof1, a lab focused on AI in financial markets, providing each AI model with $10,000 to trade in real-time [1][2]. - The competition started on October 18 and will last until November 3, with the performance measured by risk-adjusted returns [3][5]. Group 2: AI Performance - The top performers are DeepSeek V3.1 Chat and Qwen 3 Max, with returns of +115.66% and +68.17% respectively, while GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 Pro are at the bottom with losses of -61.75% and -61.33% [15]. - DeepSeek (DS) employs a steady, quantitative approach, while Qwen takes aggressive positions, leading to significant differences in performance [6][11]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - DS uses a full-cover long strategy with high leverage, while Grok starts with a similar approach but is more aggressive [6][10]. - Gemini and GPT-5 struggle with frequent trading and inconsistent strategies, leading to substantial losses [7][16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The competition occurs after a recent market downturn, providing a favorable environment for building positions [5]. - The AI models exhibit different personalities in trading, with DS being conservative and Qwen being opportunistic [2][10]. Group 5: Lessons Learned - The competition illustrates that practical trading performance can differ significantly from backtested results, emphasizing the importance of real-time market dynamics [13][14]. - The article suggests that AI can assist in investment decisions but requires a solid understanding of market conditions and risk management from users [27][29].
这个新股概念多,AI+存储+PCB……| 1027 张博划重点
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-27 14:55
Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18% on October 27, reaching a high of 3999.07 points, the highest level since August 18, 2015, and is close to the 4000-point mark [1] - The financing balance in A-shares remains at a historical high, with a total of 24,398.18 billion yuan as of October 24, just below the peak of 24,401.38 billion yuan recorded on October 16, and 1,732 billion yuan higher than the peak of 22,666.35 billion yuan in 2015 [1] - The current financing balance accounts for approximately 2.5% of the circulating market value, significantly lower than the ratio during the 2015 peak [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include Fujian Free Trade Zone, DRAM (memory), quantum computing, and deep earth economy, with notable increases in their respective indices [2] - The sectors showing significant growth also include aerospace, domestic consumption, and coal, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities [2] - The performance of ST stocks has been notable, with several stocks showing strong upward trends, reflecting market interest in companies undergoing restructuring or with growth potential [2]