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太空圈地,中美万颗卫星竞速中的确定性机
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-14 12:14
Core Insights - The Chinese commercial aerospace launch industry is transitioning from technology validation to large-scale application, with significant government support and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing its global competitiveness [1][4]. Group 1: Government Initiatives and Strategic Plans - The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China elevated "aerospace power" to a national strategic level, alongside manufacturing and quality [1]. - The establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Department by the National Space Administration aims to streamline approval processes, reducing the launch permit processing time by 50% [1]. - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025-2027)" outlines 22 measures, including the establishment of a national commercial aerospace development fund and the unification of civil and commercial aerospace standards [1]. Group 2: Global Competition and Satellite Launches - The global satellite frequency and orbit resources are limited, with countries competing under the "first come, first served" principle [1]. - As of May 12, 2025, there are approximately 10,824 low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites in orbit, with a utilization rate of about 18% [1]. - In 2024, there were 263 global space launch missions, an 18% increase year-on-year, with the U.S. and China accounting for 86% of the total launches [2]. Group 3: Commercial Launch Achievements - In 2025, China completed a record 83 orbital launch missions, a 22% increase from 68 in 2024, with private commercial rocket companies achieving a success rate of 87% [4]. - December 2025 saw a record launch frequency, with three Long March rocket launches completed within 19 hours [4]. Group 4: Satellite Internet Initiatives - The "GW Constellation" and "Qianfan Constellation" are major satellite internet projects in China, with plans to deploy 12,992 and over 15,000 satellites, respectively [6]. - The satellite manufacturing sector is expected to see significant growth, with China Satellite (600118) projected to handle around 200 satellite orders in 2025, generating over 2 billion yuan in revenue [6]. Group 5: Technological Advancements and Market Opportunities - Shanghai Huanxun is positioned as a key player in the satellite internet sector, providing core communication payloads for the Qianfan Constellation [7]. - The demand for satellite communication chips is expected to exceed 300 million yuan in 2025, with the market projected to reach a scale of over 10 billion yuan by 2026 [6]. - The T/R chip market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by the acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite networking [9]. Group 6: Financial Performance and Growth - Chengchang Technology reported a revenue of 306 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 204.78%, with a net profit of 90.36 million yuan [10][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for satellite components and the normalization of delivery for remote sensing projects [11].
政策定调明年打法,哪些行业有暖风?
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-14 11:15
Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference has set the economic policy direction for 2026, emphasizing high-quality development rather than aggressive growth [3][4] - The meeting aligns with the previous Politburo meeting, providing more specific execution details while maintaining a cautious approach to economic expectations [3][4] - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the policy signals, with some sectors benefiting while others may face challenges [3][4] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment is prioritized to "stop the decline and stabilize," focusing on quality over quantity, with an emphasis on projects that align with industrial upgrades and local needs [4] - The conference highlights the need for a new energy system to support emerging industries, particularly in artificial intelligence, indicating potential growth in the new energy sector [4] - The real estate sector received limited attention, with policies expected to be more about stabilizing the market rather than aggressive support, leading to potential short-term pressures on real estate stocks [4]
如何防止股票被“深套“”? | 1214 张博划重点
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-14 09:24
| 特性 | 详情 | | --- | --- | | 预计发射窗口 | 2025年12月15日至17日期间 1 5 | | 研发机构 | 中国航天科技集团有限公司第八研究院(上海航天技术研究院) ↑ 4 | | 核心目标 | 首次发射即实现卫星成功入轨,并完成一子级垂直回收 1 4 | | 火箭级数 | 两级构型 7 | | 一子级动力 | 7台 "龙云"液氧甲烷发动机(可重复使用50次以上) ↑ 7 | | 二子级动力 | 1台真空版 YF-209 液氧甲烷发动机 ()7 | | 运载能力 | 近地轨道(LEO)12吨,太阳同步轨道(SSO)7.3吨 7 | | 计划回收场 | 日肃省武威市民勤具 1 2 | | | 证指数 000001 | | 九转 加自洗 均线 窗 ◆ ▼ | | | | 18 883418 943.257 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 大盘K线区 可比 | | | | | 2025-12-12 | | | | | 目用个数: | | | | | ...
什么是“老庄股”,为何要回避?| 1211 张博划重点
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-11 23:46
12月11日,市场震荡调整,沪指高开低走,创业板指冲高回落,此前一度涨超1%。沪深两市成交额1.86万亿,较上一个交易日放量 786亿。全市场近4400只个股下跌。摩尔线程拉升涨近30%,总市值超4400亿元。截至收盘,沪指跌0.7%,深成指跌1.27%,创业板 指跌1.41%。 | 大涨板块 | 251210 (周3) | 251210 (周3) | 251209 (周2) | 251208 (周1) | 251205 (周5) | 251204 (周4) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 航天11 | 海南自由贸易港11 | PCB板7 | 光通信19 | 福建自贸/海西概念16 | 机器人13 | | 2 | 核聚变3 | 房地产8 | 光通信7 | 福建自贸/海西概念21 | In 2 16 | 17559 | | 3 | 光通信4 | 大消费13 | 福建自贸/海西概念18 | In 2517 | 光通信9 | 国产芯片7 | | ব | 智能电网3 | 光通信6 | 航天10 | DRAM (内存) 5 | 有色金属8 | 福建 ...
热点褪去,谨慎为金
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-11 11:29
本篇评级为★★★,主要围绕以下内容展开: 我们此前提到,推动房地产昨日走强的两大因素:一是市场传言万科债务有望获国资支持而平稳落地; 二是传闻全国将出台千亿级房贷贴息政策。但这两项传闻均难经推敲——万科债务问题目前仍未妥善解 决,而房贷贴息政策传言也被过度夸大。 1、两个热点大降温,12月底的机会值不值得抓? 另一热点板块——人工智能产业链亦从亢奋迅速冷却,整体跌幅超2%,光模块龙头更深度回踩 3%-4%。行业降温受海外消息传染:昨夜美股算力硬件龙头甲骨文盘后暴跌11%,其新兴AI数据中心业 务此前大举烧钱购芯片建数据中心,市场审美转变后,投资者更关注真金白银的现金流回报。 2、美联储开启呵护模式,托底力量有多大? 如有疑问请以音频内容为准,添加妙投小虎哥微信:miaotou515,入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明:五星重磅,四星重要,三星级以下大家选择听。 1、两个热点大降温,12月底的机会值不值得抓? 今天国内市场整体受到压制,除电网设备等零星板块小幅上涨外,几乎所有重要板块均出现回撤,这与 部分热点板块熄火密切相关。首当其冲的便是昨日表现亮眼的房地产板块。 本文为妙投付费内容,上述仅为摘 ...
2代电子布供需失衡,A股谁受益?| 1210 张博划重点
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-10 14:24
12月10日,在算力硬件等权重方向持续走强以及午后地产股强势做多的提振下,今日市场全天呈现探底回升行情,沪指险守3900点整数关,创 业板指则录得日线五连阳。个股方面也摆脱昨日超4000股普跌的不利态势,非ST跌停家数降至仅有3只。不过美中不足的是,今日成交量能再度 跌破1.8万亿,全天缩量超1000亿,反映短线市场追高动力仍相对不足。 ...
房地产传闻,水分有多大?
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-10 11:55
本篇评级为★★★,主要围绕以下内容展开: 如有疑问请以音频内容为准,添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515,入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明:五星重磅,四星重要,三星级以下大家选择听。 (文稿为机器转录,如有出入,请以音频为准) 每天10分钟拆解新闻背后的逻辑。大家好,今天是2025年的12月10号星期三,我是董小姐。 1、房地产传闻,水分有多大? 今天,A股上演"大反转",早盘开盘两眼一抹黑,明显回撤;下午一开盘却大反攻,最终三大指数几乎 收平。背后推力是什么?这股反转力量是否意味着市场要进入新阶段?先看消息层面。 最大的一股反转力量来自地产龙头万科。此前万科一笔债务将于12月中旬到期,面临违约风险,一直是 市场的心腹大患。今天中午,万科召开债权人大会,给出三套方案: 第一,最保障万科权益——债务延期一年; 第二,同样延期一年,但需增加新增信条款; 第三,债权人最乐见的——由深圳国资或现大股东提供无限连带责任担保。 第三种方案最让债权人安心,即使延期也有兜底。然而,官方放风称将"按市场化方式处理",不会由国 资或国企额外担保,双方仍存巨大博弈空间,一次性解决的概率不高。但市场抢跑,直接按"皆 ...
扰动未结束,市场“不按逻辑出牌”
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-09 10:40
本篇评级为★★★,主要围绕以下内容展开: 1、政策兑现,12月压力较大 2、警惕年底"资金抬轿子" 如有疑问请以音频内容为准,添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515,入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明:五星重磅,四星重要,三星级以下大家选择听。 (文稿为机器转录,如有出入,请以音频为准) 每天10分钟拆解新闻背后的逻辑。大家好,今天是2025年的12月9号星期二,我是董小姐。 除此之外,其余赛道表现平庸,多数收跌;首当其冲的是"反内卷"相关板块——工业金属、钢铁、煤 炭,以及昨日解读中提到的"政策文件缺席"的房地产,跌幅均超2%。这种短期压力信号不会在一两个 交易日内结束。毕竟,除了国内信息外,海外仍有新增变量。 本文为妙投付费内容,上述仅为摘要,购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会,在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 1、政策兑现,12月压力较大 今天,市场明显感受到政策压力——三大指数中有两只被按到水下,最终仅创业板指独涨0.6%。而这 0.6%的涨幅仍集中在为数不多的热门板块:人工智能、光模块等,以及零星消费赛道如零售、饮料制 造。 ...
谷歌“救”了“易中天”
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-09 07:51
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the A-share market related to AI and optical modules, driven by companies like Google and their TPU technology, which has positively impacted the valuation logic of optical module firms in China. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share AI frenzy is focused on two main themes: chip manufacturing and connectivity, with companies like 中际旭创 (Inspur) and 天孚通信 (Tianfu Communication) leading the charge in optical modules [1][2] - 中际旭创, 天孚通信, and 新易盛 (NewEase) have market capitalizations of 633.3 billion, 184.2 billion, and 402.1 billion respectively as of December 8 [1] - The historical average PE ratio for the communication industry is around 15-20, raising concerns about the high valuations of optical module companies, which have seen PE ratios of 40-80 [1][2] Group 2: Google's Impact - Google's TPU technology is reshaping the AI computing landscape and is expected to drive demand for optical modules, which are essential for data transmission [2][3] - The introduction of TPU v7, which can integrate up to 9,216 chips, necessitates a significant increase in optical module deployment to maintain low latency and high bandwidth [6][10] - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to rise due to Google's aggressive expansion plans, with projections indicating that 1.6T module shipments could exceed 25 million by 2026 [8][10] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major cloud companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, and the "Big Four" in the U.S. (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon), are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which is a key indicator of optical module demand [12][14] - The total capital expenditure for the "Big Four" is projected to reach $230 billion in 2024, a 55% increase year-over-year, further supporting the growth of the optical module market [12][13] - Forecasts suggest that capital expenditures will continue to rise, with a projected 35% increase in 2026, indicating sustained demand for optical modules [15] Group 4: Company Performance and Valuation - 中际旭创 reported a Q3 revenue of 10.22 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 56.83%, while 天孚通信 and 新易盛 showed lower-than-expected performance [22][23] - Despite mixed Q3 results, 中际旭创 is expected to receive a higher valuation due to its strong performance and the positive outlook driven by Google's TPU [24][25] - Analysts predict that 中际旭创's net profit will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 59% from 2025 to 2028, leading to a target price increase of 62% to 762 yuan [25][26]
国家队也要发射可回收火箭,怎么看?| 1208 张博划重点
Hu Xiu· 2025-12-08 14:01
今日市场在金融、AI软硬件等权重方向轮番做多带动下,全天呈现高开高走行情,创业板指一度涨逾3%。随着今日两市成交额重返2万亿上方。 | 大涨板块 | 251208 (周1) | 251205 (周5) | 251204 (周4) | 251203 (周3) | 25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 光通信19 | 福建自贸/海西概念16 | 机器人13 | 培育钻石3 | 標 | | 2 | 福建自贸海西概念21 | 航天16 | 航天9 | 煤炭4 | 57 | | 3 | 航天17 | 光通信9 | 国产芯片7 | 矢约6 | A | | ব | DRAM (内存) 5 | 有色会属8 | 福建自贸/海西概念7 | 福建自贸/海西概念9 | 房 | | 5 | 大金融3 | 机器人11 | 矢约3 | 加天8 | | | 6 | 大消费11 | 大消费8 | 大消费4 | 大消费6 | ટ | | T | 机器人9 | 大金融8 | STHE1 | STH56 | 吴 | | 8 | STH54 | STH57 | 股权转让1 | 风电4 | E ...