本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、主力资金卖卖卖结束了吗？ 2、政策和基本面都不差，市场仍有若干赛道值得看 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、主力资金卖卖卖结束了吗？ 今天市场在资金重重压力之下仍成功止跌并出现反弹，确实让很多人松了一口气。三大指数全部收涨， 市场情绪也相当不错——大量资金仍在积极寻找机会，而非一味回避风险。 市场的情绪可以从一个细节看出：只要出现一点有话题性的概念，很快就能点燃一波行情。最典型的例 子就是存储芯片板块。微软刚刚发布了一款新的人工智能芯片，据称这是目前大规模数据中心中性能最 强的自研芯片。这一消息迅速在芯片产业圈内掀起热情，带动了一大批上下游配套企业，包括韩国顶级 的存储器供应商，其股价今天大幅拉升，涨幅甚至相当惊人。 这一上涨势头甚至逆转了美国总统特朗普对韩国的威胁。昨晚，特朗普威胁要将对韩国的关税从原来的 15%大幅提高至25%，导致韩国股市股指期货一度跳水。但今天，韩国股市却逆势上涨约3%。一方面， 韩国政府出面安抚市场，并强调韩美 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations on January 26, with significant divergence between large and small indices. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index opened high but fell over 1% during the day. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 163 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.91% [1] Sector Performance - Major weight stocks represented by the "Three Oil Giants," insurance, and precious metals (stimulated by a surge in international gold prices) performed strongly, effectively offsetting the impact of declines in most individual stocks on the indices [4] - The recent signals from regulatory authorities regarding "counter-cyclical adjustments" aim to guide the market towards stability and suppress excessive speculation, leading to a cooling of pure thematic speculation [4] - The market is characterized as a typical structural adjustment day, with stable indices reflecting the support from weight stocks and the regulatory intent to stabilize the market, while a large number of individual stocks hitting the limit down indicates a shift in funds ahead of the performance window [4] Investment Opportunities - The "AI traffic super entrance" has become a battleground as Baidu and Tencent announced cash red envelope distributions, with Baidu offering a total of 500 million yuan and Tencent 1 billion yuan in cash red envelopes during the Spring Festival period [6] - The ongoing demand for AI ASIC chips is expected to drive significant growth in the semiconductor industry, with companies like Chiplet technology providers gaining traction due to the increasing need for efficient and cost-effective AI chips [24][25] Company Insights - Chip Origin Co., Ltd. is positioned at a critical turning point with a strong order explosion, projected revenue growth of 35.81% year-on-year, and a significant increase in new orders by 103.41% [14][16] - The company’s unique business model of "IP licensing + one-stop chip customization" minimizes product inventory risks and capitalizes on the growing demand for AI chips, with a substantial portion of its revenue coming from AI-related orders [15][24] - The company has established a robust order backlog, with 50.75 billion yuan in hand orders, indicating high visibility for future revenue [22] Regulatory Environment - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to strengthen market risk control in response to the strong performance of silver and other metal markets, including penalties for specific clients and new trading limits [7] - Thailand has adopted a clear policy direction regarding silver trading, prioritizing strong interventions or even suspending trading during extreme price fluctuations to control risks [8] Global Context - The geopolitical situation in Iran remains tense, with the U.S. deploying a multi-layered deterrent and strike system in the region, which could have implications for global markets and energy prices [9][10] - The Nipah virus outbreak in India has raised concerns, with a high mortality rate and no effective vaccine or treatment available, potentially impacting healthcare-related investments [12][13]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、"遏制炒作"尚未结束，仍需远离"火场"" 2、密集"经济增长目标"释放，有利情绪回暖 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、"遏制炒作"尚未结束，仍需远离"火场" 今天市场开盘就面临压力，虽然总体成交量超过了3.2万亿元，但主要的三大指数几乎全部收跌，尤其 是一些前期热门炒作的板块，在监管三令五申之下再度掉头下跌。其实前两天，这些板块还曾试图"死 灰复燃"，但我们强调过，监管的力量尚未撤走，风险警报也未完全解除，因此参与这类板块很容易变 成"最后返回火场"，造成不小的损失。 今天我们如何看出监管对这些炒作板块仍未放松？有一家财经媒体——《每日经济新闻》——发布了一 篇深度报道，专门针对活跃在市场上的游资，揭露了其操纵社交媒体、操控舆论的一些内幕。报道追踪 了一个典型案例，即当前游资江湖中赫赫有名的"陈小群"，深入剖析了其背后的运作机制。个人认为， 这篇报道在此时发布具有明显的指向性：通过揭开面纱，将看似神秘的游资暴露在公众视野之下，这本 身就是一种变相的监管手段——一方面是对过度张扬的炒作游资发出警告，提醒他们"高调必被盯"；另 一方面 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI制图 2025年，"易中天"（新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信）不仅是A股AI算力赛道的图腾，更是无数股民口中 津津乐道的"财富密码"。 然而，进入2026年，风向变得有些诡谲。 虽然A股整体氛围依然躁动，但资金对"易中天"的态度却从"狂热"转向了"审视"。 开年以来，仅仅不到一个月，新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信分别录得了11.11%、6.83%和4.10%的跌 幅。 下跌本身并不可怕，可怕的是背后的逻辑支撑正在瓦解。 近日，天孚通信和剑桥科技相继发布的2025年业绩预告，像两盆冷水，浇在了还沉浸在"算力永不眠"美 梦中的投资者头上。 天孚通信预计2025年归母净利润18.81亿至21.5亿元，同比增长40%-60%。看似不错的增长，但中位数不 仅低于机构一致预期的21.45亿元，更重要的是，其隐含的四季度增速令人不安。 另一家光模块玩家剑桥科技更是不容乐观，预计全年净利2.52亿至2.78亿元，远低于预期的3.02亿元。 早在2025年12月9日，虎嗅妙投就在《"易中天"的"泡沫"炒到2027年》一文中预警：资本市场已经透支 了光模块未来两年的业 ...

Market Overview - The major stock indices showed weak performance last week (January 19-23, 2026), while micro-cap stocks, the CSI 500, and the CSI 1000 indices outperformed, indicating a market style favoring individual stocks over indices [1] - The STAR 100 index increased by 3.23%, outperforming the STAR 50 index, highlighting the differences in their positioning and characteristics, with STAR 100 representing a collection of high-growth potential stocks [1][2] Sector Highlights - Several sectors in the A-share market have emerged as hotspots, including metals (driven by record high gold prices), aerospace equipment, semiconductors, space photovoltaics, and AI computing power industry chains [5] - Key drivers for these sectors include: - Commercial aerospace: Continuous policy support and events like the launch of offshore launch platforms [6] - Precious metals: International gold prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce and silver prices exceeding $100 per ounce [6] - Photovoltaics/new energy: Supportive policies from multiple provinces and improved industry performance expectations [6] Financing and Investment Trends - The regulatory body announced an increase in the margin financing ratio from 80% to 100%, effective January 19, 2026, with no significant decrease in financing balances observed, indicating that existing financing contracts may not be immediately affected [5] Space Computing - Space computing represents a significant evolution in commercial aerospace, utilizing satellites for on-orbit data processing and high-speed laser communication for data transmission [8][10] - The advantages of space data centers include higher solar energy efficiency compared to ground-based systems, with solar capacity factors exceeding 95% in space versus much lower rates on Earth [10] - The extreme cold of space provides an ideal cooling solution for high-performance computing, drastically reducing operational costs associated with cooling systems on Earth [11] Company Developments - JunDa Co., Ltd. plans to issue up to 18,682,000 new H-shares at a price of HKD 22 per share, aiming to raise approximately HKD 400 million for business development and financial structure optimization [18] - ShunHao Co., Ltd. increased its stake in Tread Lightly by investing RMB 74.98 million, raising its ownership to 28.68%, as part of its strategy to capitalize on the future growth of space computing [20] Competitive Landscape - JingZhiDa has signed a significant contract worth RMB 1.311 billion, marking a pivotal moment in its strategic transformation into a platform company focused on both display panels and semiconductor testing [29] - The company has developed a comprehensive suite of semiconductor testing equipment, including systems for chip quality inspection, durability testing, and final product inspection, positioning itself as a leader in the domestic market [31][34]

Group 1 - The article discusses a significant phenomenon in the A-share market, specifically a large pulse sell-off in the largest ETF fund tracking the CSI 300 index, which led to a notable increase in trading volume and a turnover rate of 10% on that day [3] - The sell-off is attributed to the fund being a major holding of the "national team" in the A-share market, which has a symbolic significance as a leading indicator. Regulatory warnings about market speculation were issued earlier in January, prompting some reduction in holdings by large index funds [3] - Despite the sell-off, the market showed resilience with strong investor sentiment, as evidenced by all three major A-share indices closing in the green and trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating overall positive market conditions [4] Group 2 - The article hints at other topics of interest, such as the surge in the photovoltaic sector and the potential impact of overseas instability on the Hong Kong stock market's performance, although details on these topics are not provided [6]

Market Analysis - On January 22, the market saw a rebound in the afternoon, with all three major indices turning positive, particularly a strong performance from the ChiNext Index. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 91 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.01% [1]. Investment Opportunities in Robotics - The humanoid robotics sector is experiencing significant developments, transitioning from "technology validation" to "mass production." Notable events include the successful rehearsal of the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, which integrates technology and art, showcasing advancements in robotics [8]. - At CES 2026, several companies presented advancements in humanoid robotics, including LG's CLOiD for home assistance and Boston Dynamics' new Atlas robot, which features 56 degrees of freedom and can autonomously change batteries [8]. - Tesla is set to launch its Gen 3 production machine in Q1 2026, marking a pivotal moment in global production processes [9]. Company Transformations - Fulei New Materials is transitioning from a traditional functional materials manufacturer to a technology company capable of supplying advanced robotic sensing components. The company aims to optimize its traditional business while focusing on the growth potential of "electronic skin" technology in high-end applications [11]. - The company reported a strong rebound in revenue and profit in Q3 2025, driven by an increase in operating income and gross profit [12]. Semiconductor Industry Developments - Jinhua New Materials is focusing on the semiconductor sector, developing electronic-grade hydroxylamine aqueous solution for chip cleaning, a critical chemical for chip yield. The company is in the pilot testing phase and aims to establish a production capacity of 500 tons per year [15][16]. - The company has successfully delivered electronic-grade hydroxylamine to several chip manufacturers, with expectations for significant revenue growth in 2026 as production capacity expands [17]. Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical sector is shifting from traditional cyclical investments to a focus on structural opportunities and long-term value. The basic chemical industry in China is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in 2025 [18]. - Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group is transitioning from a resource-based company to a technology-driven green chemical new materials enterprise, leveraging its upstream phosphate resources for competitive advantage [22][23]. Phosphorus Chemical Market - The domestic phosphorus production capacity has seen fluctuations, with a decrease from 1.9 million tons in 2013 to 1.41 million tons in 2020, followed by a slight recovery. The supply of phosphorus is expected to remain constrained due to carbon neutrality policies [19]. - Xingfa Group is positioned as a leading player in the fine phosphorus chemical industry, with a complete "mining-phosphorus-chemical" integration strategy, enhancing its resilience against market fluctuations [24].

Core Viewpoint - The recent personnel changes at China Merchants Bank (CMB) reflect a strategic move to enhance collaboration between its wealth management and credit card businesses, aiming for growth in a challenging market environment [1][6]. Personnel Changes - Li Mingdong, previously the General Manager of the Wealth Management Platform, will take over as the General Manager of the Credit Card Center, while Lu Xiaorong, the General Manager of the Retail Financial Headquarters, will assume leadership of the Wealth Management Platform [1][4]. - This transition is seen as a way to cultivate talent and broaden the experience of mid-level managers within the bank [5][6]. Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, CMB's credit card interest income was CNY 30.612 billion, down 4.96% year-on-year, while non-interest income fell by 16.23% to CNY 10.471 billion [2][3]. - Conversely, wealth management fees and commissions reached CNY 12.797 billion, marking an 11.89% increase year-on-year, indicating a stronger growth trajectory compared to credit card services [2][3]. Market Context - The credit card business, once a key growth driver for CMB, is now facing stagnation due to market saturation and declining asset quality, with non-performing loans increasing [2][3]. - Wealth management has emerged as a new growth direction for CMB, focusing on asset under management (AUM) growth and providing services that meet clients' needs for capital preservation and appreciation [3][4]. Strategic Objectives - The personnel adjustments aim to deepen the synergy between wealth management and credit card services, leveraging Li Mingdong's experience in wealth management to enhance credit card offerings and vice versa [6][7]. - Lu Xiaorong's dual role is expected to facilitate better integration of data, risk management, and resource allocation between the two departments, creating a more cohesive operational strategy [6][8]. Competitive Landscape - CMB faces increasing competition in wealth management from state-owned banks and online platforms, necessitating a stronger focus on collaboration between its wealth management and credit card services to optimize customer engagement and revenue growth [7][9]. - The bank's ability to adapt to changing customer demands and regulatory pressures will be crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the wealth management sector [9][10]. Future Outlook - While the current strategy is expected to remain stable, the effectiveness of the new leadership in addressing the challenges in wealth management and credit card services will be closely monitored [11][12]. - The integration of data and risk management capabilities is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and customer satisfaction, but the success of these initiatives will depend on effective execution and collaboration [12].

Group 1 - The "Trump risk" is receding, leading to potential benefits for certain sectors and losses for others [3] - Trump announced the abandonment of punitive tariffs on European countries, citing ongoing cooperation with NATO regarding Greenland [3] - Global capital markets reacted positively, with a rebound in European and American stock markets and a recovery in the U.S. bond market [3] Group 2 - The future cooperation framework may enhance U.S. military presence and resource control in Greenland, particularly concerning rare earth minerals [3] - U.S. companies already possess mining rights in Greenland, which could lead to small-scale rare earth production in 2 to 3 years, but large-scale mining may take 8 to 10 years to establish [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhifei Biological, a leading domestic vaccine company, has reported its worst performance forecast since its listing, with an expected net profit loss of between 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year decline of 630% to 780% [1][2]. Revenue Structure - Over 90% of Zhifei's revenue comes from agency products, with agency product revenue accounting for 98.05% and 94.61% in 2023 and 2024, respectively [6]. - The main source of agency revenue is the HPV vaccine, which is crucial for the company's performance in 2026 [6]. Market Competition - The HPV vaccine market has become increasingly competitive with the introduction of domestic vaccines, breaking the monopoly previously held by Merck [6][8]. - The price of HPV vaccines has significantly dropped, with the 2-valent HPV vaccine priced at 27.5 yuan per dose, a decrease of about 90% from over 300 yuan in 2022 [8]. Sales Decline - Zhifei's sales of the 4-valent HPV vaccine saw a dramatic decline, with a 95.49% drop in batch issuance in 2024, and a complete halt in 2025 [10]. - The company faces inventory issues, with stock levels rising to 20.246 billion yuan, a 125% increase from the previous year, leading to potential asset impairment risks [10]. New Product Development - Zhifei has four self-developed products expected to launch in 2026, including flu and rabies vaccines, but these are not classified as first-class applications [15][16]. - The competitive landscape for these products is intense, with many companies already established in the market, making it difficult for Zhifei to gain significant market share [15][19]. Financial Pressure - The company has signed a loan agreement for up to 10.2 billion yuan, indicating potential financial strain as it seeks to expand its self-developed product line [22]. - The reliance on agency products and the challenges in launching new products may continue to pressure Zhifei's financial performance in the coming years [21][22].