如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信：miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、波动期什么时候结束？中财办解读经济工作会议，有个细节值得注意 2、继续划重点，关注政策暖风赛道 1、波动期什么时候结束？中财办解读经济工作会议，有个细节值得注意 这两天的行情就如坐过山车：昨天大幅上涨之后，今天又迎来向下回踩，12月的波动在此过程中被演绎 得淋漓尽致。首先波动较大的是科技板块，这与中美两国市场存在联动性。昨晚美国纳斯达克指数下跌 1.8%，主要源于市场对美国各大科技公司"烧钱模式"未来能否回本的终极担忧；这一担忧迅速波及全球 科技板块，中国市场亦感同身受。 因此，最近我们看到，人工智能这一庞大组合已盘整近三个月。盘整如此之久并非好迹象：参与科技板 块交易的资金中，既有机构资金，也有相当比例的个人投资者和投机资金，这些资金的耐心普遍有限。 三个月的长期波动缺乏财富效应，容易引发部分资金离场；尤其考虑到年底资金面本就偏紧，很多资金 会趋于谨慎，均可能在年底引发较大波动。 当然，不少朋友注意到， ...

编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI制图 昨晚，美股AI板块遭遇了一场集体"血洗"：英伟达跌3.81%，AMD重挫5.29%，博通大跌4.48%，谷歌 跌3.21%，特斯拉跌4.62%，而风暴中心的甲骨文（Oracle），更是大跌5.40%，股价创下9月以来的新 低。 仅仅一晚，数千亿美元的市值灰飞烟灭。 但这并非毫无征兆。在经历了长达两年的单边上涨后，美股AI板块正进入一个最为凶险的阶段——估 值逻辑的根本性切换。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 昨夜的暴跌，表面看是一次个案引发的恐慌，实则是美股AI"多空拉锯战"中，空头取得的首场决定性胜 利。华尔街的耐心正在耗尽，他们不再为宏大的"梦想"买单，开始拿着计算器，锱铢必较地清算每一笔 投入产出比（ROI）。 一、 100亿美元的"黑天鹅" 这场暴跌的导火索，是一次看似不起眼的融资终止。 Blue Owl Capital，一家在私募信贷领域颇具分量的机构，突然宣布终止与甲骨文的谈判。这原本是一笔 高达100亿美元的巨额交易，旨在为甲骨文位于密歇根州的数据中心项目提供资金支持。 理由简单而残酷：担心甲骨文的债务规模和支出过大。 在过去两年里，AI行业的增长逻 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise and fall of Li Bei, a prominent figure in the private equity industry, highlighting her unique ability to blend investment acumen with social media influence [2][3][4] - It emphasizes the dual nature of her career, where her strong performance was initially supported by her ability to generate significant public interest, but recent performance declines have led to a backlash against her public persona [9][10][12] Company Overview - Li Bei founded Hanxia Investment in 2017 after a decade of experience in public and private equity, gaining recognition for her investment strategies and public engagement [4][5] - Hanxia Investment quickly grew to manage over 100 billion yuan, leveraging Li Bei's social media presence to attract clients and enhance brand visibility [7][8] Performance Analysis - Hanxia's performance peaked between 2018 and 2021, with average returns of 16.67%, 6.38%, 99.99%, 64.42%, and 0.74% from 2018 to 2022, respectively [10][11] - However, post-2022, the firm faced significant challenges, with Li Bei's misjudgments leading to substantial losses, including a 30% net value decline and underperformance compared to market indices [12][14][20] Market Position and Strategy - The article notes that Li Bei's strategy shifted from a low-volatility approach inspired by Bridgewater to a high-risk, high-reward model akin to Soros, which initially yielded high returns but later contributed to volatility and losses [23][24] - The competitive landscape has evolved, with quant funds gaining traction and outperforming traditional discretionary strategies, posing a challenge to Hanxia's business model [29][30] Future Outlook - Despite recent setbacks, there is potential for recovery if macroeconomic conditions improve and if Hanxia can adapt its strategies to align with market trends [31][32] - The article suggests that while Li Bei's expertise in macroeconomic analysis remains valuable, her reliance on personal judgment may hinder future performance in a rapidly changing investment environment [20][30]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a collective rebound on December 17, with significant gains in major indices, indicating a positive shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by over 1%, while the ChiNext Index increased by more than 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.81 trillion, an increase of 87 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index had gained 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.4%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.39% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The financial sector showed strong performance in the afternoon, with Huatai Securities nearing a trading limit and China Pacific Insurance rising over 4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is currently favoring the narrative of domestic GPUs, with a focus on the recent listing of Muxi Co., which has achieved significant market attention and high initial returns for investors [2][30]. Group 1: Muxi Co. Listing and Market Performance - Muxi Co. debuted on the A-share market with an opening increase of 568.83%, reaching a price of 700 yuan, allowing investors to earn approximately 297,700 yuan per share [2]. - As of December 17, Muxi's market capitalization was 329.9 billion yuan, closely trailing behind other domestic GPU companies like Moer Thread and Cambrian [2]. - Muxi's first-day performance is notable as it has no price limit, making its market value susceptible to fluctuations driven by market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and CUDA Compatibility - The compatibility with NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem is a critical issue for domestic chip manufacturers, as CUDA has become an industry standard [4][10]. - Muxi Co. has chosen a strategy of high compatibility with CUDA through its self-developed software stack, MXMACA, which aims to minimize user migration costs [20][21]. - The company has registered over 15,000 users for its MXMACA software stack since its open-source community launch on February 14, 2025, indicating a positive reception [20]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Profitability Outlook - Muxi's revenue surged from 430,000 yuan in 2022 to 1.236 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a significant compound annual growth rate [26]. - Despite not being profitable yet, Muxi anticipates achieving profitability by 2026, which is earlier than competitors like Moer Thread [26][35]. - The company’s core product, the Xiyun C500, has successfully completed its first batch of chips, with the next generation, the Xiyun C600, expected to enter mass production in early 2026 [29]. Group 4: Market Valuation and Future Potential - The capital market's valuation of Muxi is influenced by the narrative of becoming "China's NVIDIA," with potential market capitalization estimated at around 250 billion yuan based on comparisons with Moer Thread [33][36]. - If Muxi can demonstrate the commercial viability of its C600 product in 2026, its market value could significantly increase, potentially surpassing that of Moer Thread and Cambrian [36].

Market Overview - The market experienced a day of volatility with all three major indices opening lower and continuing to decline throughout the day, resulting in a total market volume decrease of 49.3 billion [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, all asset classes faced significant declines, with the South Korean Composite Index dropping by 1.89% and the Nikkei 225 Index falling by 1.38%, breaking below the 50,000 mark [2] Hong Kong Market Impact - The Hang Seng Index and related indices saw a sharp increase in their decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and the National Index both falling over 2.5% [3] - Major tech companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, and Meituan experienced increased losses, reflecting market concerns over potential tax implications for high-tech companies [3] Japanese Monetary Policy - Historically, each interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been associated with global economic downturns, as seen in past events such as the 2000 Nasdaq crash and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis [4] - Current discussions indicate that Japan is at a critical juncture regarding interest rate increases, with implications for global financial stability [4]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、《求是》重要文章说了什么，指向什么方向？ 今天国内市场向下回踩得有些狠：上证指数下跌1.1%，创业板指跌2.1%。进入12月后，国内股票市场 的财富效应迅速萎缩——这一点我们已在近日的音频中反复提及，总原则仍叫"谨慎为金"。多重肉眼可 见的压力中，最典型的是刚结束的两次会议：12月8日的政治局会议和12月11日的中央经济工作会议。 政策节奏总体讲究"稳扎稳打"，而此前市场预期却是"高举高打"，于是部分资金不得不面对预期落差， 进而对整体市场形成压制。当然，我们并非说"稳扎稳打"之下所有行业、所有赛道都无亮点；熬过12月 及1月初的典型波动期后，政策指向的亮点大概率会逐步浮现，转化为潜力与机会。 今天政策层面又有新表态：《求是》杂志发表了一把手的重要文章，标题为《扩大内需是战略之举》。 《求是》的地位毋庸赘述，其基本代表最高层声音；此文又是两次会议后一把手发表的首篇综述，意有 所指，可视为来年工作的重中之重。标题已点明重点——"扩大内需是战略之举"，并非权宜之策，而是 短、中、长期都要"徐徐图之"。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a brief rise due to strong performance in large financial stocks, but faced downward pressure from technology stocks, particularly those related to computing power, leading to a significant decline in the afternoon session [1] - The ChiNext Index fell below the 10-day moving average, while the STAR 50 Index dropped over 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.77 trillion yuan, a decrease of 318.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The sectors that saw significant gains included IT, consumer goods, and smart grid, with IT leading the way with a gain of 519 points [3] - Other notable sectors included domestic free trade zones and photovoltaic industries, which also showed positive performance [3] - The report highlights a variety of sectors with varying degrees of performance, indicating a mixed market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data is under pressure, leading to expected market performance fluctuations [3] - The domestic market showed instability today, with a noticeable pullback, which was anticipated due to the onset of December being a "troublesome autumn" with increased volatility [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics released a series of macroeconomic data that intensified the "pain" in December, particularly regarding housing prices [3] Group 2 - In November, housing prices continued to decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, leading to an annualized decline exceeding 10%, approaching 15% [3] - The decline in housing prices has accelerated, with the drop in November being 0.2 percentage points larger than in October, indicating a worsening trend [3] - The instability in housing prices and unsold properties may trigger a chain reaction, negatively impacting other economic data [3]

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI制图 12月15日，奶茶界、光伏业共同迎来了一场备受瞩目的联姻。 新郎是霸王茶姬CEO张俊杰，新娘是天合光能联席董事长高海纯。一个是新茶饮赛道的"新贵"，一个是光伏产业的"老钱"。 （图片来源：网络） 坊间称，两人"相识于青年企业家学习活动"。可追溯到的信息是，高海纯是二期混沌学园学员，张俊杰是四期混沌学园学员。 在2024年末混沌学园十周年老友回归活动上，两人的名字同时出现在了西塘会场的老学员名单上。那张名单上有270位创业者、企业家的名字。在混沌学园 对活动的回顾推文里，张俊杰的名字被列在第二位，第一的位置则留给了俞敏洪。 在这场聚会上，共有18位分享嘉宾，被分成三组来做圆桌讨论。而张俊杰占了C位，独立演讲。他复盘了霸王茶姬过去几年破的局，打过的关键战役，分享 了公司的战略布局和组织文化。 高海纯，则是参与活动的台下听众。 或者，我们也可以把这个可能严肃地探讨，转化成一个带有八卦意味的问句： 对于这次霸王茶姬与天合光能的联姻，到底是张俊杰"高娶"，还是高海纯"高嫁"呢？ 一、"并购"优质资产 这有可能是个女"慕强"的剧本。当然，只是有 ...