SHMET 网讯：据《莫斯科时报》报道，俄罗斯央行周三宣布，作为财政部充实国家预算行动的一 部分，已首次开始出售储备中的实体黄金。 "随着国内黄金市场流动性近年持续提升，俄罗斯央行目前在国内市场进行的等价操作开始部分通 过黄金完成，"一位央行发言人向国际文传电讯社表示。 资深分析师Stephen Innes在Fxstreet撰文称，在这个制裁资产无法流动、美元资产遭冻结、地缘政治 不断重构全球金融管道的时代，克里姆林宫最终认定：唯一仍能自由奔涌的储备池只剩黄金。俄罗斯国 内黄金市场的流动性动态已悄然蜕变，使央行得以将操作规模扩大到数年前无法想象的水平。这并非虚 张声势的作秀，而是一场结构性转向——在本就依靠恐慌情绪、供应缺口和去美元化浪潮支撑的市场 中，又增添了一股无声的东风。 俄罗斯央行未披露此次销售的具体时间表与规模。 Innes写道，制裁虽切断了国际通道，却意外迫使体系加速成熟——如今市场周转率已提升到足以 让央行开展黄金操作，为国家财富基金调整资产组合时，其精准程度堪比交易员将负债驱动型投资组合 向强势资产重新平衡。 在俄乌冲突全面爆发之前，国家财富基金持有405.7吨黄金。此后为弥补预算缺口，财政部 ...

亿万富翁投资者、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）认为，即便你担心市场热潮是等待破裂的泡 沫，也不该过早放弃人工智能（AI）领域。 他周四接受CNBC采访时表示，他确信当前股市已深陷泡沫——但这仍不是投资者退出AI交易的理由。 达利欧向该媒体解释，投资者应留在市场的原因很简单：目前泡沫破裂的条件根本不存在。 "别只因泡沫就抛售，"这位传奇基金经理说，"你得把握时机。是什么会刺破泡沫？通常是货币政策收 紧，而我们现在不会面临这种情况。" 这与生成式AI领域正在上演的动态高度契合——AI热潮已将部分科技公司的估值推至极高水平。 近几周，投资者愈发担忧部分这类公司的盈利计划，同时也关注到该领域许多交易本质上具有循环性。 在达利欧看来，当市场出现资产清算需求时，泡沫才会最终破裂。他推测，美联储加息或消费者面临财 富税等事件可能引发抛售。 在可预见的未来，这两种情况在市场中似乎都不太可能发生。尽管美联储12月降息的前景因就业数据不 完整且表现强劲而受到审视，但根据芝商所美联储观察工具（CME FedWatch tool）的数据，市场预计 到明年6月，利率从当前水平下调的概率达96%。 达利欧曾多次警告风险资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan has issued its strongest warning yet regarding the recent volatility of the yen, with the finance minister indicating that intervention is a potential response to curb the yen's continued decline [1][4]. Group 1: Government Actions and Statements - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed deep concern over the extreme and rapid fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, stating that appropriate actions will be taken against disorderly movements, including potential intervention [1][4]. - The government is expected to announce a significant economic stimulus package, funded by an additional budget of 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 112 billion USD), which is the largest since the reduction of pandemic-era measures [4][5]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the 160 yen per dollar level, as the Japanese authorities have previously intervened in this range [3][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - The dollar briefly fell to 157.20 yen following the finance minister's comments but rebounded, remaining near its highest level since January [1]. - Analysts suggest that the yen is becoming a speculative tool, with market sensitivity to Japanese officials' comments diminishing, and macroeconomic factors supporting a weaker yen [4][6]. - There is speculation that Japan may intervene before the yen reaches the 160 mark, as the government believes it has sufficient foreign reserves to act if necessary [5][9]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Japan has previously intervened in the market four times last year to support the yen, costing approximately 100 billion USD, and has spent around 173 billion USD since 2022 on interventions [9]. - The Japanese government emphasizes that intervention will only occur in response to sudden, disorderly, or speculative fluctuations in the market [9][11]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.8%, the highest since 2008, reflecting market optimism about the Japanese economy despite concerns over fiscal stability [5][6].

与库克一样，她说她认为金融体系状况良好，银行资本充足，家庭资产负债表稳健。但与库克一样，哈 玛克也表示她正在关注对冲基金的高杠杆水平，并认为私人信贷值得关注。 吴雨，金十数据 金融市场稳定担忧，包括资产价格可能急剧下跌的风险，正成为美联储官员讨论降息时机甚至是否降息 时的新主题。 在周四乔治城大学的演讲中，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）并未特别就近期利率政策发表看法。 但她列举了一系列金融体系风险，包括快速增长的私人信贷市场、对冲基金在国债市场的交易，以及生 成式人工智能在机器交易中的应用。 库克还暗示，她不会对处于历史高位的资产价格崩盘感到惊讶——这些高估值资产支撑了整体消费支出 和更广泛的美国经济——尽管这种下跌本身并不意味着金融市场不稳定。"目前，我的感觉是资产价格 大幅下跌的可能性增加了。" 在早些时候的另一场合，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克（Beth Hammack）重申了她对进一步降息的反 对，因为通胀仍然过高，并表示她认为宽松的金融条件是反对降息的另一个理由。 虽然降息可能被视为为就业市场"购买保险"，但她说，"我们应该记住，这种保险可能以加剧金融稳定 风险为代价。" 巴尔支持美联储 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has withdrawn its prediction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, citing a robust September jobs report indicating economic resilience [1] - The strong employment data suggests that the summer economic slowdown may have been overstated, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate attributed to a rise in labor force participation rather than layoffs [1] - Morgan Stanley now expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates in January, April, and June 2026, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 3% to 3.25%, consistent with previous forecasts [1] Group 2 - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, believes that the report indicates potential employment growth remains weak, suggesting the Fed needs to continue cutting rates to fulfill its full employment mandate, though uncertainty remains about immediate actions [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that the September jobs report is crucial for the Fed's focus on inflation and maintaining a somewhat restrictive policy stance, emphasizing the need to keep monetary policy tight to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target [2] - Many Fed officials have indicated a cautious stance on further rate cuts this year due to inflation remaining above the 2% target, with analysts suggesting that without stronger evidence of a need for urgent support in the job market, a more cautious approach may prevail [2] Group 3 - Analysts note that upcoming fiscal stimulus measures, including personal tax cuts and accelerated depreciation allowances, may strengthen the U.S. economy next year, further supporting arguments against excessive rate cuts [3] - The minutes from the October 28-29 meeting indicate that Fed staff have raised their outlook for next year, reflecting expectations of stronger potential output growth and improved financial conditions [3] - John Roberts, former Fed research department deputy director, suggests that changes from the Inflation Reduction Act could boost economic growth by approximately 0.4 percentage points in early 2026, potentially lowering the unemployment rate and preventing at least one anticipated rate cut by the Fed [3]

金融市场稳定担忧，包括资产价格可能急剧下跌的风险，正成为美联储官员讨论降息时机甚至是否降息 时的新主题。 "一些与会者评论了金融市场资产估值过高的问题，其中几位与会者强调了股票价格无序下跌的可能 性，特别是在市场突然重新评估人工智能相关技术的可能性时"，会议纪要称。 政策制定者之间的辩论主要集中在：再次降息是否会让多年来一直高于美联储2%目标的通胀进一步向 错误方向发展，或者更紧迫的担忧是需要美联储进一步宽松的疲软劳动力市场。 周四，两位被视为持鹰派立场的美联储官员再度对通胀表现出不安。 在周四乔治城大学的演讲中，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）并未特别就近期利率政策发表看法。 但她列举了一系列金融体系风险，包括快速增长的私人信贷市场、对冲基金在国债市场的交易，以及生 成式人工智能在机器交易中的应用。 库克还暗示，她不会对处于历史高位的资产价格崩盘感到惊讶——这些高估值资产支撑了整体消费支出 和更广泛的美国经济——尽管这种下跌本身并不意味着金融市场不稳定。"目前，我的感觉是资产价格 大幅下跌的可能性增加了。" 在早些时候的另一场合，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克（Beth Hammack）重申了她对进 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly increased by 119,000 in September, while the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [9][10] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to the lowest level since September, but continuing claims continued to rise [9] - The market is pricing in that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in December despite the mixed employment data [9] Group 2: Federal Reserve Commentary - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about further rate cuts, indicating that lowering rates could prolong high inflation and pose financial stability risks [9][10] - Fed officials are worried about inflation remaining at 3% and emphasize the need to support the labor market while aiming to bring inflation back to 2% [9] Group 3: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, S&P 500 down 1.55%, and Nasdaq down 2.15% [3] - European stock indices saw collective gains, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.5% and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.21% [3] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices fluctuated, closing at $4,078.59 per ounce, up 0.01%, while silver fell by 1.43% to $50.63 per ounce [6] - WTI crude oil prices dropped by 1.2% to $58.69 per barrel, and Brent crude fell by 0.92% to $62.67 per barrel [6] Group 5: International Developments - Ukrainian President Zelensky received a draft peace plan from the U.S. and is expected to consult with Trump soon [12] - Japan's government advisor indicated that intervention might occur before the yen reaches 160 [12] - The Argentine central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 20% [12]

Group 1 - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations of 50,000, marking the largest increase since April [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, with the previous value also at 4.3% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-over-year was recorded at 3.8%, above the expected 3.7%, while the month-over-month growth was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The healthcare sector added 43,000 jobs, with outpatient services contributing 23,000 and hospitals adding 16,000 jobs [3] - The restaurant and drinking places sector also saw significant hiring, adding 37,000 jobs [3] - Federal government employment decreased by 3,000, totaling a reduction of 97,000 jobs since January [3] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 6,000 jobs in September, continuing a concerning trend [3] - Analysts express concerns over the slowdown in wage growth, which may lead to a deceleration in overall labor income [3] - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will pause any rate cuts in December, despite increased bets on potential cuts [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite warnings about a potential AI bubble, it is not a good time to short major US tech companies like Nvidia, according to Muddy Waters Capital CEO Carson Block [1] - Nvidia's recent earnings report showed a record revenue of $57 billion for the October quarter, a 62% increase year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations [1] - Nvidia raised its revenue forecast for the current quarter to $65 billion, exceeding previous analyst estimates of $62.1 billion [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's quarterly earnings reports are viewed as a significant indicator of the health of the tech industry and the overall market, with 45% of global fund managers considering AI stock market bubbles a major risk [2] - Block is focusing on smaller companies involved in AI for potential shorting opportunities, indicating that many companies are either genuinely involved in AI or are "pretenders" [3] - The passive trading boom has disrupted the market and weakened price discovery, with funds continuously buying Nvidia as long as there is inflow, regardless of its price [3]

Group 1 - European countries oppose a US-backed peace plan for Ukraine, which requires Kyiv to concede more territory and partially demilitarize, seen as tantamount to surrender by Ukraine's allies [2][3] - The US has signaled to Ukrainian President Zelensky that he must accept a framework agreement drafted by the US to end the conflict, including territorial concessions and military restrictions [2][3] - Ukraine's military is currently on the defensive, and the Zelensky government is weakened by corruption scandals, leading to the dismissal of two cabinet ministers [3][4] Group 2 - French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot stated that peace cannot equate to surrender, emphasizing the need for a fair and lasting peace that respects sovereignty [4] - Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski asserted that Ukraine, as a victim of the conflict, should not be subjected to conditions that limit its self-defense capabilities [4] - The US Secretary of State, Rubio, mentioned that achieving lasting peace will require both sides to make difficult but necessary concessions [4][5] Group 3 - As winter approaches, Russian forces are slowly advancing and preparing to capture the significant city of Pokrovsk, which would mark their first major victory in nearly two years [6][7] - Russia currently occupies nearly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory and demands further land concessions, permanent neutrality, and military reductions from Ukraine to end the conflict [7] - The conflict has evolved into a brutal stalemate along a 1,000-kilometer front, with both sides suffering heavy losses [7]