6. 荷兰国际：近期三美联储官员（戴利、库克和卡什卡利）对就业市场恶化表示担忧，这似乎是杰克逊 霍尔央行年会中官方立场转向更温和的前兆。 7. 牛津经济：预计美联储将在12月前按兵不动，预计鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔将"守口如瓶"。他可能更像一 只猫头鹰——等待和观察——而不是放鹰或放鸽。 8. 三菱日联：杰克逊霍尔会议风险在于，鲍威尔可能不会就下一次降息的时机提供明确信号，从而为美 联储在9月FOMC会议前继续评估即将公布的数据争取更多时间。这可能有助于抑制美元在短期内的下 行压力。 9. 美国银行：我们对美联储今年降息持怀疑态度，鲍威尔在7月份表示，只要失业率保持在较窄的范围 内，他将对低就业增长感到满意。现在看来，这一设想正在成为现实，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲将给 他一个"言出必行"的机会。 3. 瑞士银行：鉴于上周的数据，鲍威尔可能在会上愿意暗示美联储倾向于在9月份降息。 4. 裕信银行：我们预计美联储将回归2020年前的措辞。从表面上看，此举略带鹰派色彩。 5. 罗素投资：杰克逊霍尔会议可能冷却美联储降息预期，美联储9月降息是"可能的"，而非"确定的"， 降息幅度将是25个基点，而不是50个基点。 1. 道 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of S&P Global Ratings is that the tariffs imposed by President Trump may help maintain U.S. fiscal health despite criticisms from mainstream economists [1] - S&P confirmed the U.S. long-term credit rating at AA+ and short-term rating at A-1+, with a stable outlook, partly due to expected tariff revenues offsetting the impact of recent tax and spending legislation [1][2] - The report indicates that significant tariff revenues are anticipated to counterbalance potential fiscal weaknesses arising from recent legislation, with July tariff revenues reaching a record high of $28 billion [2] Group 2 - There is ongoing debate among economists regarding the sustainability of tariff revenues, as Trump's policies aim to bring production back to the U.S., which could reduce future tariff income [2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that recent budget legislation will increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, despite rising tariff revenues [2] - S&P's stable outlook suggests that while U.S. fiscal deficits may not significantly improve, they also will not worsen substantially in the coming years, with projected government net debt exceeding GDP by over 100% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite ongoing diplomatic efforts by President Trump to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global oil and gas market is unlikely to be significantly impacted regardless of the outcome [2][5] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Western sanctions have severely affected Russia's oil and gas industry, leading to a substantial loss of revenue and a reshaping of the global energy landscape [2] - Russia's natural gas now accounts for only 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021, while the share of crude oil imports from Russia has dropped from approximately 30% to 3% [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that a comprehensive peace agreement is nearly impossible, and even if temporary or partial ceasefires are proposed, energy imports from Russia by Europe are unlikely to resume as long as President Putin remains in power [3][4] - The U.S. may tighten sanctions, particularly against buyers of Russian energy, but any potential disruptions in Russian supply can be easily compensated by other countries increasing their purchases [4] - The global oil market is entering a phase of oversupply, with the International Energy Agency projecting a surplus of 1.76 million barrels per day by 2025 and 3 million barrels per day by 2026, primarily due to increased production from OPEC+ and the Americas [4]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国众议院首席调查委员会主席周一表示，司法部将无法在周二前满足传票要求，提交与涉嫌性交易的 杰弗里·爱泼斯坦（Jeffrey Epstein）相关的文件，但将在周五开始分批提供部分记录。 爱泼斯坦于2019年在狱中身亡，当时他正面临性交易指控。美国总统特朗普仍不断被追问其与爱泼斯坦 过去的关系。尽管这一事件近期有所降温，但很可能在下个月国会结束夏季休会、重返华盛顿后再次升 温。 监督委员会主席、来自肯塔基州的共和党议员詹姆斯·R·科默（James R. Comer）本月正式向司法部长帕 姆·邦迪（Pam Bondi）发出传票，此前委员会内部分共和党议员与民主党人联合施压，迫使其采取行 动。 科默说："我们会传唤所有我们认为能够为调查提供信息的人。" 科默在声明中说："司法部掌握了大量记录，部门需要时间来制作所有材料，并确保删除涉及受害者身 份和任何儿童性虐待内容的部分。" 科默并未透露司法部何时能完全交付传票所要求的文件。这些文件包括与爱泼斯坦及麦克斯韦刑事案件 相关的材料，以及关于爱泼斯坦死亡调查的内容。 司法部未回应置评请求。预计档案会采取"滚动" ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国德州众议院民主党人在为期两周的"罢会"行动后，于当地时间周一中午重返州议会大厦，迎来支持 者们的热烈欢呼。由于达到法定人数，众议院得以数周来首次召开。 但民主党方面认为，这场罢会成功吸引了全国舆论关注共和党的划区计划，并激发了广泛反对。 "这就 是民主！"数十名支持者高喊口号，举着写有"把德州人放在首位"和"谢谢民主党人"的标语，迎接众议 员们在中午前走进议事厅。 周一，德州民主党人确认，他们已返回奥斯汀，准备结束为期15天的"破坏法定人数"行动。在此期间， 他们还呼吁加州等地采取措施，反制德州的划区提案。 本月初，数十名民主党议员集体离开德州，意在阻止共和党推动的重新划区计划。该计划将为共和党在 美国众议院新增五个席位。他们的回归几乎意味着，由共和党推动、特朗普主导的重新划分选区方案将 顺利通过。 特朗普及其盟友还将目光投向佛罗里达、印第安纳、俄亥俄和密苏里等州，力争在2026年国会选举前赢 得更多席位。 此前，民主党人以罢会阻挠首轮特别会议后，共和党籍州长格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott）下令召开第 二次为期30天的特别会议。 与此同时， ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds are buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace since the end of June, driven by long positions and some short covering, with a ratio of 1.9 to 1 [1] - Individual stocks and macro products, based on trends in inflation, GDP, geopolitical issues, and fiscal policy, accounted for 58% and 42% of total nominal net purchases, respectively [1] - China is the market with the highest net purchases on Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage platform as of August [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage platform is currently overweight on China relative to the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) by +4.9%, ranking in the 41st percentile compared to last year and the 16th percentile compared to five years ago [1] - Chinese stocks represent 5.8% of total exposure and 7.3% of net exposure on Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage platform, ranking in the 94th and 45th percentiles respectively compared to last year, and the 48th and 21st percentiles compared to five years ago [1] Group 3 - Korean investors have significantly increased their trading volume in mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets, with cumulative trading amount reaching $5.514 billion by the end of July, surpassing last year's total [1] - The top ten net purchases of Chinese stocks by Korean investors are concentrated in leading companies in the fields of new energy vehicles, internet, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors [2] Group 4 - The average return of Chinese stock funds issued in South Korea from January to July is approximately 10.3%, driven by steady economic development in China [2] - In July alone, about 402.1 billion Korean won (approximately 2.08 billion RMB) of net inflow was recorded in Chinese stock funds [2] - Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90 points, indicating an 11% upside potential from last Friday's closing price, supported by improved trade prospects and market liquidity [2]

低波动率表明中国股市尚未出现FOMO 西部证券首席策略分析师曹柳龙等在报告中写道："虽然有些投资者在讨论存款加速流向股市，但我们的观察显示，高净值投资者确实在 涌入，但大多数个人投资者选择的是理财产品，而非直接购买股票或公募基金。" 他们补充说，小额交易也表明散户参与度不高。一些家庭正转向股市寻求更高回报，但散户投资者尚未争相买入股票。彭博汇编数据显 示，截至8月15日，以股票为主的中国交易所交易基金（ETF）已连续八周遭遇资金外流，尽管沪深300指数在此期间上涨逾9%。与此同 时，固定收益ETF持续获得资金流入，货币市场基金赎回规模不大。 中国股市近期的上涨行情可能比以往更具持久力，因为散户投资者尚未出现狂热情绪，这有助于降低群体性追涨杀跌带来的风险。 分析师表示，虽然上证综指周一升至十年来高点部分得益于资金充裕的投资者寻求比债券更高的收益，但他们的建仓步伐较以往股市上 涨时期更为审慎。 衡量市场波动率的沪深300指数10日历史波动率仅比今年低点高出几个点，远低于去年10月的高点。这一趋势让人对股市更可持续的上涨 抱有希望，这可能有助于恢复投资者的信心。 居民储蓄出现了向股市转移的初步迹象 值得注意的是，本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists warn that the slowdown in the U.S. job market is not over and may worsen, with hiring momentum weaker than previously thought [2] Employment Trends - Current employment growth levels are too low to sustain full employment, with estimates now significantly below the low standard of 30,000 jobs per month [2] - Key sectors such as healthcare, seasonal hiring, and government modeling of new business are showing signs of weakness [2][3] - Labor force participation rate is declining, job vacancies are decreasing, and hiring activity is slowing to near zero in most sectors [2][3] Implications for Federal Reserve and Government - The slowdown in job growth supports the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with expectations of three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December [3] - If hiring remains weak, further rate cuts may occur in 2026 [3] - The slowdown undermines President Trump's narrative of strong job creation as a key economic achievement [3] Structural Changes in Employment - A sharp decline in immigration is putting pressure on job creation, as fewer new jobs are needed to maintain full employment [3] - Stricter immigration policies are likely to reduce the number of immigrant workers in the labor market [3] - Industries like healthcare and education, which previously experienced "catch-up hiring," are no longer showing significant growth, leading to overall job creation fatigue [3][4] Potential Consequences of Continued Weakness - Even mild further weakness in the labor market could have significant consequences, making it harder for unemployed workers and recent graduates to enter the job market [4] - Special factors in the coming months, such as cuts to Federal Reserve staff and stricter immigration enforcement, may further pressure employment [4] - Investors are keen to hear Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's stance on potential rate cuts during his upcoming key policy speech [4]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 当美国总统特朗普参与其中时，一切皆有可能。这一次，欧盟领导人似乎算是相对轻松过关了。 与泽连斯基上一次（没有欧洲领导人在旁"护卫"）造访白宫不同，这次没有人被当场斥责，但依然出现 了不少奇怪、有趣的瞬间。以下是其中几幕…… 黑色就是新时尚 2月时，泽连斯基因没有在重要场合穿西装而受到指责。当时，特朗普在欢迎他时讽刺道："今天打扮得 真正式啊。"彼时泽连斯基穿的是惯常的军装，而特朗普依旧是他那条"一直垂到大腿根"的标志性领 带。 周一的场面截然不同。特朗普见到泽连斯基穿黑色西装时兴奋地说："我喜欢这个！"泽连斯基回 答："这是我最好的了。" 随后，他还拿亲MAGA的媒体Real America's Voice记者布莱恩·格伦（Brian Glenn）开起了玩笑。今年2 月，他访问椭圆形办公室时，格伦曾当面指责他："为什么不穿西装？你站在这个国家最高权力的办公 室里，却拒绝穿西装。" 这一次，格伦却大加赞赏，称泽连斯基的黑色西装"很棒""非常得体"。 特朗普插话道："我也说过同样的话。"随即转向泽连斯基，补充道："上次攻击你的就是他。" "我记得。"泽连斯 ...

鲍威尔曾利用在杰克逊霍尔的年度演讲来暗示货币政策的重大转变。2024年，在为抑制疫情后的一波通 胀而将联邦基金利率维持在高位后，他确认美联储即将进行一年多来的首次降息。这一次，鲍威尔可能 会利用这次峰会来暗示，美联储是否准备好自去年12月以来恢复降息。 鲍威尔也可能会阐明他如何看待美联储当前的困境。美联储的任务是利用货币政策来保持低通胀和高就 业。但最近，在美国总统特朗普发起了前所未有的提高关税的运动后，这两个经济指标都已走向了错误 的方向。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 华尔街将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上的讲话，他可能会在讲话中暗 示美联储是否准备在9月的下一次会议上降息。 鲍威尔定于北京时间周五晚10点发表题为《经济展望与框架评估》的演讲。这次谈话可能会揭示这位美 联储主席对抗击通胀的看法，以及他是否认为美联储已准备好将其基准联邦基金利率从目前4.25%至 4.5%的区间下调。他和其他美联储官员认为，目前的利率水平足以对经济增长构成"温和"压力，并对 通胀施加下行压力。 给降息希望泼冷水 鉴于令人警惕的通胀数据，市场参与者对9月降息可能过于乐观。B ...